Xinyi Glass [868.HK] NDR takeaways. Maintain BUY. During the NDR in Shenzhen, Xinyi Glass (XYG) management reiterated its positive view on the outlook

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1 信义玻璃 [868.HK] 非交易路演纪要 ; 维持买入评级在信义玻璃于深圳举行的非交易路演中, 管理层重申对公司前景抱持正面看法, 并确定公司以下三项业务具有增长潜力 : 汽车玻璃建筑玻璃和浮法玻璃公司正在利用其在香港市场的经验和专业知识, 于中国进行售后汽车玻璃的销售随着中国汽车保有量快速增长, 管理层认为售后汽车玻璃销售将为公司汽车玻璃业务带来中长期的增长动力管理层重申, 建筑玻璃业务将在 216 下半年实现较快增长, 这是由于下游需求复苏和价格战结束公司将专注于高度专门化市场, 如超白建筑玻璃, 该市场的竞争较小尽管浮法玻璃价格在 216 年 8 月和 9 月上涨, 管理层表示, 考虑到中国政府推行供给侧改革和建设周期的因素, 预期浮法玻璃的上升周期将持续较长时间管理还提到, 在众多玻璃生产商中, 该公司的碳排放率接近最低水平, 因为该公司约 2% 用电量是来自屋顶型太阳能发电系统和余热发电, 这导致每年节省亿元人民币信义玻璃目前的 216 年市盈率为 8.4 倍由于公司估值不高, 我们维持目标价 8.69 港元 ( 基于 1.5 倍 216 年市盈率, 低于其历史平均水平, 亦低于上市同业的平均值 ), 维持买入评级投资亮点售后汽车玻璃业务带来长远增长动力公司管理层表示, 公司正试图向客户提供直销服务, 以享受中国不断增长的售后汽车玻璃市场带来的机遇现时售后汽车玻璃市场由信义玻璃和福耀 [366.HK] 主导, 但两家公司目前都聚焦在批发市场信义玻璃将利用在香港市场的经验和专业知识来扩大售后汽车玻璃的直销业务, 公司的香港业务属于信义香港 [8328.HK] 旗下, 信义香港在 216 年 7 月分拆而成根据公司目前的商业模式, 公司提供汽车玻璃维修和更换服务, 服务可以在服务中心进行, 或通过移动服务队伍在客户要求的地方提供客人可以通过在线和线下渠道下订单, 以及通过第三方支付平台如支付宝和 Tencent Pay 在现场支付信义玻璃在两个月前于广东省开展上述经营该业务有盈利能力, 尽管目前带来的贡献并不高信义玻璃的目标是 217 年网点数量达到 1 个 ( 自有和特许经营 ) 在中国的售后汽车玻璃直销市场中, 目前没有具主导地位的公司初期的资本支出主要是用于车辆采购, 以及网点的装修及修理, 其与信义玻璃的现有业务规模相比并不巨大建筑玻璃将在 216 下半年和 217 年实现更高增长信义玻璃管理层解释指, 建筑玻璃市场的价格战已在 216 上半年结束在正常的建设周期中, 建筑玻璃的需求有望在 216 下半年和 217 年维持高水平在中国, 低辐射玻璃的渗透率估计为 3%, 仍低于发达国家的 8% 以上, 因此低辐射玻璃产品在未来几年仍有增长的空间信义玻璃还将聚焦于有增长动力的领域, 如超白建筑玻璃, 公司从信义光能 [968.HK] 取得配方和原材料该高度专业化的业务为公司带来较高的盈利能力, 该市场亦存在较小的竞争由于近期浮法玻璃价格上涨, 一些没有内部供应浮法玻璃的建筑玻璃生产商的利润率将承受较大压力上升周期较长管理层认为, 浮法玻璃价格的上升周期将持续较长时间, 因为中国政府推行供给侧改革下游需求反弹和环保控制变得更加严格公司管理层指出, 前期费用超过 5, 万元人民币, 并需时五个月让停产的浮法玻璃生产线重新投产, 当中未考虑营运资金的需求因此在目前的环境下, 尽管浮法玻璃价格有所上涨, 但浮法玻璃的供应不太可能在短期内大幅增加公司正在寻找在中国并购和海外扩张的机会, 以扩大其浮法玻璃业务在考虑到信义光能的贡献的转变后, 我们将信义玻璃 216 年和 217 年盈利预测分别上调 2.2% 和 1.3% Key 主要财务指标 Financials ( 百万港元 ) (in HKDm) E 217E Revenue 收入 9, , , , ,571.5 Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %) %) Gross 毛利润 Profit 3,137. 2, , , ,171.8 Gross 毛利润率 Margin (%) % Net 净利润 Profit 3, , , , ,626.2 Net 净利润率 Margin (%)% EPS 每股收益 (Basic) ( 基本 ) Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %) %) (61.3) DPS 每股派息 $.24 $.15 $.265 $.418 $.461 中国建筑行业 - 建材买入收盘价 : 7.9 港元 (216 年 9 月 26 日 ) 目标价 : 8.69 港元 (+22.5%) 股价表现 216 年 9 月 27 日 (HK$) Se p15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部市值亿美元发行在外股数亿股核数师 PricewaterhouseCoopers 自由流通量 45.6% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 1,16 万美元主要股东李贤义 (2.3%) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (852) markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk ROE 净资产收益率 (%) (%) Dividend 股息收益率 (%) Yield (%) PER 市盈率 (x) ( 倍 ) PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) FCF 自由现金流收益率 Yield (%)(%) 1.18% -.66% 3.77% 6.21% 7.78% Capex 资本开支 (m) ( 百万元 ) (3,752.3) (1,729.) (1,967.) (1,7.) (1,5.) Free 每股自由现金流 cash flow per share.1 (.) Net 净负债比率 Gearing (%)(%) Source: 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部 Bloomberg, CGIS Research 1

2 Xinyi Glass [868.HK] NDR takeaways. Maintain BUY. During the NDR in Shenzhen, Xinyi Glass (XYG) management reiterated its positive view on the outlook for the Company, identifying growth potential for its three business segments: automobile glass, construction glass and float glass. XYG is leveraging its experience and expertise in the HK market to offer direct sales of aftermarket automobile glass in China. Given the Company s increasing installed base in China, XYG management believes that the aftermarket automobile glass segment offers medium-long-term growth potential for its automobile glass segment. XYG management reiterated the view that the construction glass segment would report faster growth in 2H 216, given resilient downstream demand and the end of the price war. XYG will focus on niche segments, such as ultra-clear construction glass, which faces less competition. Despite the upsurge in the float glass price in Aug and Sep 216, XYG management believes that the float glass up-cycle will last longer, given the Chinese government s supply side reforms and the construction cycle. XYG management also mentioned that the Company has one of the lowest rates of carbon emissions among glass manufacturers because about 2% of its electricity usage is generated by roof-top solar power and residual heat power, which translates into annual savings of RMB25-3m. XYG is now trading at 8.4x 216 PER. With its undemanding valuation, we maintain our BUY call with a target price of HK$8.69 (based on 1.5x 216E PER, lower than its historical average and the average of its listed peers). Investment Highlights Aftermarket automobile glass segment offers a long-term growth opportunity. XYG management highlighted that the Company is trying to capture the growth potential of China s growing aftermarket automobile glass segment by offering direct sales to customers. The aftermarket automobile glass segment is now dominated by XYG and Fuyao Glass [366.HK], both of which are focusing on the wholesale market at this stage. XYG will leverage its experience and expertise in the Hong Kong market, now under Xinyi Automobile Glass Hong Kong Enterprises Limited [8328.HK] after its spinoff in Jul 216, to grow its direct sales aftermarket automobile glass operations. Under its current business model, XYG provides vehicle glass repairs and replacement services, which can be provided either at its service centers or by its mobile service teams at locations requested by its customers. They can place orders to XYG through both offline and online (JD) channels, and pay on-site through third-party payment platforms, such as Alipay and Tencent Pay. XYG formally started the operation two months ago in Guangdong province. The operation is profitable, though the contribution is insignificant at this stage. XYG aims to have 1 outlets (both self-owned and franchised) in 217. At this stage, there is no dominant player in the market for direct sales of aftermarket automobile glass in China. The initial capital outlay is mainly for the procurement of vehicles, and decoration and fixings for outlets, which is not a significant amount compared with size of XYG s existing operations. Construction glass will see higher growth in 2H 216 and 217. XYG management explained that the price war in the construction glass segment had ended in 1H216. Given the normal construction cycle, demand for construction glass is expected to remain high in 2H216 and 217. The penetration rate of Low-E glass in China is estimated at 3%, still lower than the >8% in developed countries, so there is still room for Low-E glass products to grow in the coming years. XYG will also focus on growth areas such as ultra-clear construction glass, whose formula and raw materials XYG adopted from Xinyi Solar [968.HK]. The niche products segment offers higher profitability and faces less competition. Some of the construction glass producers without in-house supply of float glass will face severe margin pressure given the recent upsurge in the float glass price. Longer upcycle. XYG management believes that the upcycle in the float glass price will last longer, given the Chinese government s supply side reforms, resilient downstream demand and increasing environmental protection controls. XYG management pointed out that it costs over RMB5m in upfront costs and takes five months to resume a suspended float glass production line without considering working capital needs. Therefore, in the current environment, there is unlikely to be a major increase in float glass supply in the near term, despite the upsurge in float glass price. XYG is looking for M&A opportunities in China and overseas expansion to grow its float glass operations. We raised our earnings forecast for 216 and 217 by 2.2% and 1.3% after factoring in the change in contribution from XYS. Key Financials (in HKDm) E 217E Revenue 9, , , , ,571.5 Change (YoY %) Gross Profit 3,137. 2, , , ,171.8 Gross Margin % Net Profit 3, , , , ,626.2 Net Margin % EPS (Basic) Change (YoY %) (61.3) China Construction Sector - Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (852) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) Building Materials BUY Close: HK$7.9 (Sep 26, 216) Target Price: HK$8.69 (+22.5%) Share Price Performance (HK$) Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$3,623m 3,554.9m Pricewaterhouse- Free Float 45.6% 52W range September 27, 216 Se p15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholder (HK$ million) HK$ US$11.6m Mr Lee Yin Yee (2.3%) DPS $.24 $.15 $.265 $.418 $.461 ROE (%) Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 1.18% -.66% 3.77% 6.21% 7.78% Capex (m) (3,752.3) (1,729.) (1,967.) (1,7.) (1,5.) Free cash flow per share.1 (.) Net Gearing (%) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 2

3 Figure 1: Results highlights Results Highlights (HKD m) 1H 214 2H 214 1H 215 2H 215 1H 216 2H 216E Revenue 5,34 5,827 5,283 6,177 5,885 7,59 Cost of sales and services -3,697-4,43-3,873-4,455-3,844-4,84 Gross profit 1,337 1,397 1,41 1,723 2,41 2,75 Other income and other gains and losses Distribution and selling expenses Administrative expenses Finance costs JV & Associates Profit before tax ,79 1,31 1,572 2,398 Income tax expense MI Profit for the period ,173 1,369 1,927 Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net Margin (%) Turnover by products (HKDm) Automobile glass 1,781 1,813 1,897 1,89 1,99 2,72 Construction glass 1,79 1,477 1,26 1,445 1,22 1,644 Float glass 2,175 2,538 2,18 2,843 2,675 3,794 Gross margin by products (%) Automobile glass Construction glass Float glass Source: Company, CGIS Research Figure 2: Key assumptions for XYG Turnover (HKDm) Source: Company, CGIS Research F 217F Automobile glass 3,77.8 3, , , ,62.1 4,357.7 Construction glass 1, , , , , ,285.9 Float glass 3,78.6 4, , ,22.2 6, ,927.9 Total 8,433. 9, , , , ,571.5 Automobile glass Construction glass Float glass Total Volume Automobile (piece) 12,11. 12, , , ,631.3 Construction(sqm) 16, ,38. 2, , ,448.4 Float glass (tonne) 2,927. 3,51. 3, , ,657. Automobile (piece) Construction(sqm) Float glass (tonne) ASP Automobile (HKD/piece) Construction (HKD per sqm) Float glass (HKD per tone) 1, , ,32.2 1, ,487.6 Automobile (HKD/piece) 2.7. Construction (HKD per sqm).1 (4.) 2. Float glass (HKD per tone) (12.6) (3.) Gross margin (%) Automobile glass Construction glass Float glass Blended Net margin (%) Cost (HKDm) S,G&A (1,56.7) (1,25.9) (1,638.) (1,614.5) (1,887.) (2,52.9) Financial Expenses (57.3) (59.7) (38.1) (5.2) (45.4) (62.7) S,G&A (1.4) Financial Expenses 4.2 (36.2) 32. (9.5) 37.9 CAPEX (HKDm) 1, , ,729. 1,967. 1,7. 1,5. Net Gearing (%)

4 Figure 3: Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Cash Flow Statement (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Revenue 9,936 1,861 11,46 13,394 14,571 Net Income 3,282 1,227 1,796 2,692 2,98 Growth yoy% 17.8% 9.3% 5.5% 16.9% 8.8% Depreciation & Amort Gross Profit 3,137 2,733 3,133 4,746 5,172 Change in Working Capital 19 (296) 456 (14) (2) Growth yoy% 4.9% (12.9%) 14.6% 51.5% 9.% Cash from Ops. 4,82 1,546 3,18 3,41 3,642 Selling General & Admin Exp. (1,251) (1,638) (1,615) (1,887) (2,53) Capital Expenditure (3,752) (1,729) (1,967) (1,7) (1,5) Others Operating Expenses/Items Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income 2,212 1,274 1,733 3,111 3,392 Change in Investing Acitivities Growth yoy% n.a. (42.4%) 36.1% 79.5% 9.1% Cash from Investing (3,673) (1,676) (1,927) (1,617) (1,435) Interest Expense (59.7) (38.1) (5.2) (45.4) (62.7) Net increase in bank borrowings Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) Common Dividends Paid (945) (59) (1,43) (1,62) (1,791) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest. 1, Other Financing Activities (264) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing (7) 282 (1,27) (1,552) (1,791) Income Tax Expense (381) (228) (266) (482) (54) Minority Int. in Earnings () (1) (2) (192) (268) Net Change in Cash Net Income Growth yoy% 196.4% (61.3%) 54.8% 55.4% 1.5% Balance Sheet (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Ratios FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F ASSETS Sources: Company, CGIS Research Profitability Cash And Equivalents 1, ,298 1,498 1,915 Return on Assets % 19.7% 6.7% 9.9% 14.5% 14.5% Receivables 2,255 2,487 2,381 2,473 2,688 Return on Capital % 11.6% 5.9% 7.9% 12.3% 11.8% Inventory 1,232 1,478 1,223 1,27 1,38 Return on Equity % 31.8% 11.1% 16.9% 24.% 23.3% Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 4,537 4,85 4,995 5,334 6,76 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 11,849 12,581 13,177 14,548 15,117 Gross Margin % 31.6% 25.2% 27.3% 35.4% 35.5% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 12.6% 15.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin % 22.3% 11.7% 15.1% 23.2% 23.3% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin % 28.4% 17.4% 21.8% 29.6% 29.7% Other Long-Term Assets 3,265 3,649 3,249 4,41 5,24 Net Income Margin % 35.4% 12.6% 18.4% 24.5% 24.9% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 15,114 16,229 16,426 18,589 2,142 Total Asset Turnover.5x.5x.5x.6x.6x Total Assets 19,651 21,34 21,422 23,924 26,218 Fixed Asset Turnover.7x.7x.7x.7x.7x Accounts Receivable Turnover 4.5x 4.6x 4.7x 5.5x 5.6x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover 8.1x 7.3x 9.4x 1.5x 1.6x Accounts Payable 1,744 1,978 2,112 2,194 2,384 Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings 2,116 2,529 2,514 2,529 2,529 Current Ratio 1.1x 1.x 1.x 1.1x 1.2x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.8x.7x.7x.8x.9x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities 4,79 4,81 4,959 5,56 5,246 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt 3,24 3,483 3,514 3,832 3,832 Net Debt to Equity 34% 42% 37% 33% 27% Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr Other Non-Current Liabilities Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 7,442 8,699 8,696 9,11 9,31 Total Revenue 17.8% 9.3% 5.5% 16.9% 8.8% Common Stock 7,1 5,94 4,277 5,933 7,768 Net Income 196.4% (61.3%) 54.8% 55.4% 1.5% Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio % 26.8% 43.3% 49.4% 49.4% 49.4% Retained Earnings 5,18 6,393 8,442 8,681 8,681 Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest Total Equity 12,29 12,335 12,726 14,814 16,917 Total Liabilities And Equity 19,651 21,34 21,422 23,924 26,218 4

5 Oct-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Figure 4: XYG s PER trend HKD x 15 19x x 9x 4x Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates 5

6 Figure 5: Peer comparison Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance Price Market Cap 216F 217F 218F 216F 217F 218F F F F F 1M 3M 6M 12M Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % 868 HK Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd n.a n.a HK Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd HK Xinyi Automobile Glass Hong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a.. n.a. 5. n.a. n.a. n.a. 33 HK China Glass Holdings Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1. n.a. -2. n.a n.a.. n.a HK Luoyang Glass Company Ltd-H n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 n.a. 29. n.a n.a.. n.a HK Fuyao Glass Industry Group-H HK Flat Glass Group Co Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a. Average CH Fuyao Glass Industry Group-A n.a CH Csg Holding Co Ltd- A n.a n.a. 4.3 n.a CH Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co Lt-A n.a. n.a CH Avic Sanxin Co Ltd-A n.a n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington-A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Luoyang Glass Company Ltd-A n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a.. n.a Average TT Taiwan Glass Ind Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a..9 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a SISE TI Turk Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari n.a TRKCM TI Trakya Cam Sanayii As n.a APOG US Apogee Enterprises Inc n.a n.a JP Asahi Glass Co Ltd n.a JP Nippon Electric Glass Co Ltd n.a JP Central Glass Co Ltd n.a. n.a JP Nippon Sheet Glass Co Ltd n.a SGO FP Compagnie De Saint Gobain n.a PPG US Ppg Industries Inc GLW US Corning Inc Average Sources: Bloomberg, Company, CGIS Research estimates for covered stocks; 6

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Key 主要财 financials 务数据安徽海螺 (914.HK) Anhui Conch (00914.HK) 损益表 Income Statement ( 千元人民币, 每股数据除外 ) (RMB'000, except for per share am

Key 主要财 financials 务数据安徽海螺 (914.HK) Anhui Conch (00914.HK) 损益表 Income Statement ( 千元人民币, 每股数据除外 ) (RMB'000, except for per share am 安徽海螺 [0914.HK] 市场整合的里程碑 ; 基于估值考虑, 将评级上调至买入我们认为, 安徽海螺水泥在以每吨企业价值 860 元人民币 ( 接近重置成本 2 倍 ) 向西部水泥 [2233.HK] 注入 4 家水泥厂后, 公司达成了一个不错的交易由于交