March 31, 2017 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Growth story remains intact. Maintain BUY Luye Pharm s 2016 results were in line with our estimate and market cons

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1 绿叶制药 [2186.HK] 增长前景不变 ; 维持买入评级绿叶制药 2016 年业绩符合我们和市场的预期我们相信公司的增长前景仍然良好在新 FDA 药物推出之前, 公司未来几年的利润主要来自现有的重点产品, 特别是力扑素贝希血脂康卡巴拉汀 ( 预计占 2017 年收入约 70%) 我们审视了我们的盈利预测, 维持目标价 5.78 港元 (17 倍 2017 年市盈率 ) 及买入评级投资亮点 2016 年业绩符合预期 : 净利润同比增长 18% 至人民币 8.91 亿元如果撇除以下一次性项目 :1) 主要涉及收购 Acino 的开支约人民币 4,100 万元 ;2)5700 万元的一次性递延税项调整, 那么经常性净利润为人民币 8.69 亿元, 同比增长 15%, 略高于我们预期的人民币 8.57 亿元和市场共识预测的人民币 8.6 亿元我们留意到, 公司 2016 年的政府补贴 ( 涉及研发 ) 大增, 达到人民币 1.14 亿元 (2015 年为人民币 6,200 万元 ), 但这部分受到毛利率低于预期所抵消, 因为毛利率低的业务销售加快增长, 这最终导致净利润略高于预期在营运方面, 我们留意到, 力扑素 ( 用于癌症, 占 2016 年总收入约 50%) 在 2016 年下半年维持 12.5% 的同比增幅 ( 上半年亦为 12.5%), 符合我们预期心血管业务收入 ( 占总收入 22%) 在 2016 年下半年增长 27%, 对比上半年下降 12% 而消化道和代谢业务( 占 2016 年总收入 19%) 在下半年同比增长 24%, 对比 2016 上半年同比增长 12%, 均超出我们的预期力扑素继续录得低双位数增长 : 对于力扑素未来几年的增长, 管理层持正面态度, 他们认为力扑素的直接竞争对手 - 白蛋白紫杉醇仍需要时间才赶上, 尤其力扑素现时在销售渠道和医生覆盖面都具有优势我们认同这一看法, 因为目前没有临床资料显示两种药物有很大的疗效差异力扑素可能会被纳入医保谈判目录然而, 平均售价有机会下调, 这将构成一个较大的风险总体而言, 我们仍然预计力扑素将在年实现低双位数收入增长, 同时预计紫杉醇将录得高单位数增长 ( 据 IMS 统计, 市场规模为人民币 33 亿元, 而力扑素拥有约 54% 市场份额 ) 也就是说, 我们基本上预期力扑素将继续取得市场份额, 因为脂质体紫杉醇正取代传统的紫杉醇就贝希和血脂康给予正面指引 : 贝希 / 血脂康占总收入约 8/4.6%( 由中国银河国际证券研部估算 ) 由于公司将把更多销售重点放于三四线医院, 管理层指引 2017 年贝希 / 血脂康将实现 30%/ 双位数增长, 我们认为这对市场属于正面消息 Acino 的影响 : 自 2016 年 12 月起,Acino 业绩开始并入绿叶制药的报表我们仍然预期它有望实现约 10% 的同比增长, 主要受助于卡巴拉汀 ( 诺维司他 Exelon 在美国的第一种仿制药, 用于阿尔茨海默病 ) Acino 每年的折旧及摊销费用约人民币 9,200 万元 ; 我们预计其净利润率约 20% ( 仍低于绿叶制药的原始业务 ), 高于 2016 年的约 17% 在此基础上, 我们预计 2017 年海外业务将贡献净利润约人民币 1.15 亿元 ( 占我们对 2017 年净利润预测的 11%) 由于预计 Exelon 的另外两种仿制药在 2018 年推出市面, 我们预计增长将逐渐放缓利培酮 : 主要用于精神分裂症, 该药物正等待美国 FDA 的审批管理层预期, 将在 2018 年提交新药申请, 并于 2019 年推出催化剂 : 以下因素将诱发我们进一步上调盈利预测 :1) 如果力扑素被纳入医保谈判目录, 平均售价降幅低于预期 ; 2) 现有产品增长快于预期 ;3) 在预计未来几年净现金寸头超过人民币 16 亿元和 EBITDA 超过人民币 10 亿元的情况下, 公司或进行更多并购 ;4) 推出新的 FDA 药物中国医药业买入 ( 不变 ) 2017 年 3 月 31 日收盘价 : 4.72 港元 (2017 年 3 月 30 日 ) 目标价 : 5.78 港元 (+22.5%) 股价表现市值亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 E&Y 自由流通量 54.3% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 690 万美元主要股东刘殿波 (45.68%) 来源 : 公司, 彭博何霜霖分析员 (852) Y/E 截至 Dec 12 月底止年度 A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Turnover 收入 ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) 2,544 2,563 2,918 3,830 4,263 Core 核心净利润 net profit ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) ,064 1,207 Core 核心净利润率 net margin (%) 24.9% 29.4% 29.8% 27.8% 28.3% Core 每股核心盈利 EPS (RMB) ( 人民币 ) YoY 百分比变动 7.4% 15.2% 22.4% 13.5% PER 市盈率 (x) ( 倍 ) PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) Adjusted 净资产收益率 ROE (%) 14.3% 14.4% 15.3% 14.9% EV/EBITDA ( 倍 (x) ) Sources: 来源 : 公司 Company,, 中国银河国际证券研究部 CGIS Research estimates harryhe@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 March 31, 2017 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Growth story remains intact. Maintain BUY Luye Pharm s 2016 results were in line with our estimate and market consensus. We believe its growth story remains unchanged. In the next few years, earnings will be driven mainly by existing key products, especially Lipusu, Beixi, Xuezhikang and Rivastigmine (which are expected to account for ~70% of 2017E revenue) before the launch of new FDA drugs. We fine -tuned our numbers and maintain our target price at HK$5.78 (17x 2017 PER). Maintain BUY. Investment Highlights 2016 results in line: Net profit was RMB891m, up 18% YoY. If we exclude one-off items of 1) an ~RMB41m expense mainly related to the acquisition of Acino; and 2) an RMB57m one-off deferred tax adjustment, recurring net profit was ~RMB869m, up 15% YoY, slightly beating our estimate of RMB857m and market consensus of RMB860m. We note the Company recorded a sharp increase in government subsidies (related to R&D) in 2016 of RMB114m (vs. RMB62m in 2015), which was partially offset by a lower-than-expected gross margin due to the faster ramp-up of lower-margin business, resulting in the slightly better-than-expected net profit. On the operations side, we note that Lipusu (used for cancer, representing ~50% of total revenue in 2016) maintained stable growth of 12.5% YoY in 2H16 (vs. 12.5% in 1H16), complying with our expectation. The Cardiovascular segment (22% of revenue, Figure 1) saw 27% top-line growth in 2H16 vs. a 12% decline in 1H16 and the Alimentary Tract and Metabolism sectors (19% of 2016 revenue) saw 24% YoY growth in 2H16 vs. 12% in 1H16, both exceeding our expectations. Lipusu to continue low-teen growth: Management holds a positive view on Lipusu s next few years growth as they believe it will take time for Lipusu s direct competitor Paclitaxelalbumin ( 白蛋白紫杉醇 ) to catch up as Lipusu has advantages in its existing sales channel and doctor base. We share this view, as currently there is no clinical data showing any major difference in the curative effect between the two drugs. Lipusu may be included in the negotiated NRDL ( 醫保談判目錄 ).However, a potential ASP cut is a major risk. Overall, we continue to expect Lipusu to deliver low-teen growth in vs. expected high-single-digit growth of Paclitaxel ( 紫杉醇 ) (according to IMS, the market size is ~RMB3.3bn and Lipusu has a ~54% market share). That is, we basically expect Lipusu to keep gaining market share as liposome Paclitaxel replaces traditional Paclitaxel. Positive guidance on Beixi and Xuezhikang: Beixi/Xuezhikang accounted for ~8/4.6% of 2016 total revenue (estimated by CGIS research). Management guided >30%/double-digit growth for Beixi/Xuezhikang in 2017, respectively, as a result of greater sales focus on low-tier hospitals, which we think should be positive to the market. Impact of Acino: The Company started consolidating Acino in its results in Dec We still expect it to grow ~10% YoY, driven by Rivastigmine, the first generic drug for Norvatis Exelon in the U.S. to treat Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Acino generates ~RMB92m of D&A each year; we expect its net margin to be ~20% (still lower than that of Luye s orginal business), up from ~17% in On this basis, we expect overseas sales to contribute ~RMB115m to the bottom -line in 2017E (11% of our 2017E net profit estimate). With two more generics of Exelon expected to come out in 2018E, we expect growth to slow down gradually. Risperidone: It is used to treat schizophrenia ( 精神分裂症 ) and is under U.S. FDA application. Management expects to submit a New Drug Application in 2018 and launch it in Catalysts: Several factors will provide further upside to our forecast: 1) a lower-than-expected ASP cut for Lipusu if it is included in the negotiated NRDL; 2) fast-than-expected growth of existing products; 3) more M&A, given net cash of >RMB1.6bn and expected >RMB1bn EBITDA each year going forward; and 4) the launch of new FDA drugs. Y/E Dec A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Turnover (RMB m) 2,544 2,563 2,918 3,830 4,263 Core net profit (RMB m) ,064 1,207 Core net margin 24.9% 29.4% 29.8% 27.8% 28.3% Core EPS (RMB) YoY 7.4% 15.2% 22.4% 13.5% PER (x) PBR (x) Adjusted ROE 14.3% 14.4% 15.3% 14.9% EV/EBITDA (x) Sources: Company, CGIS Research estimates BUY (Unchanged) Close: HK$4.72 (March 30, 2017) Target Price: HK$5.78 (+22.5%) Price Performance Market Cap US2017.2m Shares Outstanding m Auditor E&Y Free Float 54.3% 52W range China Healthcare Sector 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholding Sources: Company, Bloomberg Harry He Analyst (852) harryhe@chinastock.com.hk HK$ US$6.9m Chairman Liu Dian Bo (45.68%) Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 2

3 Figure 1: 2016 revenue breakdown Products (Generic Name ) Oncology Lipusu (Paclitaxel liposome injection) CMNa (Sodium glycididazole injection) Cardiovascular System Xuezhikang (Xuezhikang) Maitongna (Sodium aescinate injection) Alimentary Tract & Metabolism Bei Xi (Acarbose capsules) Others Sources: Company Indications Ovarian cancer, cervical cancer, breast cancer and non-small-cell lung cancer Sensitiser in connection with radiotherapy for tumours Hypercholesterolaemia Treatment of cerebral edema and edema caused by trauma or surgery and venous reflux disorder Adjunct to diet for lowering blood glucose in patients with diabetes % 2016 revenue 54% 22% 19% 5% Figure 2: Peer s comparison PER(x) PBR(x) ROE(%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company name Ticker Price (HK$) Market cap (HK$m) E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E LUYE PHARMA GROU* , SIHUAN PHARM , BAIYUNSHAN PH-H , CSPC PHARMACEUTI , SINO BIOPHARM , LIVZON PHARM-H , SHANGHAI FUDAN-H , LEE'S PHARM , n.a n.a n.a DAWNRAYS PHARMAC , n.a n.a n.a Simple average Median * CGIS research estimate Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates 3

4 Key financials P&L (RMBm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Cash flow (RMBm) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue 2,544 2,563 2,918 3,830 4,263 Pretax profit ,247 1,415 Oncology 1,319 1,395 1,570 1,758 1,969 D&A Cardiovascular System Change in working capital (341) (417) (453) (6) (321) Alimentary Tract and Metabolism Income tax paid (103) (111) (81) (181) (205) Other Products Others 109 (86) (49) (20) (24) Overseas Business n.a n.a Operating cash flow ,314 1,165 COGS (483) (476) (535) (744) (800) Gross profit 2,061 2,087 2,383 3,086 3,463 Capex (269) (204) (611) (300) (300) Selling and distribution expenses (1,006) (964) (1,122) (1,436) (1,599) Purchase of intangible assets (8) (4) (759) (50) (50) Administrative expenses (195) (185) (267) (291) (324) Acquisition of subsidiaries Other expenses (194) (190) (199) (260) (290) Others (2,882) 448 (509) EBIT ,098 1,250 Investing cash flow (3,159) 240 (1,879) (211) (207) D&A EBITDA ,372 1,551 Proceed from/(repayment of) borrowings (440) 197 1,122 (800) (500) Finance costs (40) (16) (30) (21) (10) Proceed from equity 3, Share of profit of an associate Dividend paid Other income and gains Others (217) (146) (216) 0 0 Pretax profit ,247 1,415 Financing cash flow 2, (800) (500) Tax (111) (133) (81) (181) (205) After tax profit ,066 1,210 Net change in cash (182) 686 (446) MI Reported net profit ,064 1,207 Adjusted net profit ,064 1,207 Reported EPS (RMB) Adjusted EPS (RMB) DPS(RMB) Payout 0.0% 0.0% 25.6% 30.0% 30.0% Balance sheet (RMBm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Balance Sheet (as of end-dec) Valuation Property, plant and equipment 1,092 1,196 1,702 1,829 1,933 PER (recurring earnings) (x) Goodwill Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.6% Other intangible assets PBR (x) Available-for-sale investments 1, EV/EBITDA (x) Total non current assets 2,605 1,981 3,923 4,000 4,051 Growth rate Revenue 0.8% 13.8% 31.3% 11.3% Inventories EBIT 12.3% 6.2% 38.1% 13.9% Trade and notes receivables 914 1,193 1,415 1,733 1,771 EBITDA 11.2% 8.4% 47.5% 13.0% Pledged short-term deposits Recurring net profit 19.1% 15.2% 22.4% 13.5% Cash and cash equivalents 2,177 3,206 2,747 3,050 3,508 Recurring EPS 7.4% 15.2% 22.4% 13.5% Due from related parties Operating ratios Total current assets 3,526 5,071 5,282 5,610 6,339 Gross margin 81.0% 81.4% 81.7% 80.6% 81.2% Total assets 6,131 7,053 9,206 9,611 10,390 EBIT margin 26.2% 29.2% 27.2% 28.7% 29.3% EBITDA margin 30.3% 33.5% 31.9% 35.8% 36.4% LT borrowings Recurring net margin 24.9% 29.4% 29.8% 27.8% 28.3% Deferred revenue Adjusted ROE 14.3% 14.4% 15.3% 14.9% Total non-current liabilities Adjusted ROA 11.5% 10.7% 11.3% 12.1% Interest coverage (EBITDA) Trade and notes payables Net debt/equity Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash ST borrowings , Current ratio Due to related parties Quick ratio Total current liabilities 888 1,045 2,375 1,713 1,283 Days inventories Days receivables Issued capital Days payables Reserves 4,480 5,237 6,001 7,066 8,273 MI Total equity 5,038 5,800 6,562 7,628 8,838 Total equity and liabilities 6,131 7,053 9,206 9,611 10,390 Source: Company, CGIS Research estimates 4

5 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (6881.hk) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 1%; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前 30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >20% 沽出 : 股价于 12 个月内将下跌 >20% 持有 : 没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环皇后大道中 183 号新纪元广场中远大厦 35 楼室电话 :

June 23, 2017 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Growth story remains intact, Maintain BUY The 44 drugs NRDL negotiated results will come out soon. Whether Luye s L

June 23, 2017 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Growth story remains intact, Maintain BUY The 44 drugs NRDL negotiated results will come out soon. Whether Luye s L 绿叶制药 [2186.HK] 增长前景不变, 维持买入评级国家医保谈判目录范围内 44 个品种的谈判结果即将公布投资者将紧密关注绿叶的力扑素 (Lipusu; 用于治疗肺癌乳癌等, 占公司总收入逾 50%) 是否获纳入医保目录, 因为这将影响公司未来两年的增长模式若获成功纳入, 力扑素的平均售价短期内虽会大幅下跌, 但长远却是利好, 原因是即使其直接竞争产品白蛋白紫杉醇于 2018 年推出,