COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Analyst: Harry He Tel: ); Nov 3, 217 We visited MicroPort management in Shanghai last

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1 公司 / 行业动态微创医疗 [853.HK,8.66 港元, 未評級 ] 估值合理, 宜等待前景变得更清晰 217 年 11 月 3 日分析员 : 何霜霖 (harryhe@chinastock.com.hk; 电话 : ); 王志文, CFA, 研究部主管 (cmwong@chinastock.com.hk; 电话 : (852) ) 上周, 我们于上海拜访了微创医疗的管理层, 公司谈及了其最新动向公司的骨科业务继续复苏, 但我们担心其最近收购的 CRM 业务会为财务带来不利影响公司目前的 217/18 年预测市盈率为 27/23 倍, 我们认为这估值合理, 主要是考虑到每股盈利在年的年均复合增长率预测为 33%, 以及市盈率仍接近历史平均水平的 28 倍 ( 图 3) 公司进一步上升的空间, 将取决于 CRM 业务会否有实质进展及带来协同骨科业务能否在 218 年录得盈利, 以及 Firehawk 产品能否维持高增长投资者应等待这些催化剂变得更清晰才考虑该股份的交易机会至于股份的下行风险, 将来自 CRM 业务对财务的不利影响, 以及公司在实现 CRM 的协同效应时存在的执行风险收购 CRM 业务具战略意义, 但或对财务购成负面影响从策略上看, 我们认为公司最近以 1.9 亿美元收购的 LivaNova(NASDAQ:LIVN) 旗下心律管理 (CRM) 业务 (216 年收入亿美元, 净亏损 28 万美元 ), 将与公司原有的心血管业务产生协同效应, 并使公司能获得世界领先的 CRM 技术但是, 在财务角度看, 这可能不是一个好的交易从微创医疗的资产负债表来看, 公司没有足够的现金, 因此需要再融资来完成交易 :1) 如果微创医疗发债, 其净负债权益比将从 217 年 6 月底的 35% 升至 7% 以上, 并使 218 年的融资成本提高至 9 万美元 ( 假设公司再借贷 1.5 亿美元及平均债务利率为 6%), 相当于市场对 218 年共识净利润预测的 15%;2) 另一方面, 由于今年公司股价涨幅超过 7%, 公司或会考虑增发来募集资金假设公司计划融资 1.5 亿美元, 并假设增发价为每股 7.5 港元 ( 较前收盘价折让 13%) 及发行 1.56 亿股 ( 占扩大后股本的 9.7%), 公司的 218 年每股盈利预测将从.41 美元摊薄至.36 美元 ( 假设 CRM 业务将在 218 年实现盈亏平衡 ); 这将使公司 218 年市盈率推升至约 31 倍, 接近历史平均的正一标准偏差而且, 公司目前未有如何扩充 CRM 业务的详细计划, 所以总的来说, 我们认为公司开拓 CRM 业务在战略上属于合适, 但财务上则不然未来并购战略 : 管理层重申, 公司未来的并购战略将是收购符合公司整体战略价格合理与现有业务产生协同效应的业务 ( 主要集中在海外资产 ), 而该资产是否录得盈利并不是最重要微创医疗 (853.HK; 未评级 ) (HK$) (HK$ million) /11/216 28/5/217 28/11/217 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 市值 : 亿美元 ; 自由流通量 : 4.4% FY 截至 ended 12 月 31 on 日止年度 Dec 3 215A 216A 217E 218E 219E Revenue 收入 ( 百万美元 (US$m) ) YoY % 5.8% 3.7% 12.2% 12.1% 1.6% EBIT( 百万元人民币 (US$m) ) EBIT 利润率 margin 2.4% 11.8% 16.1% 2.% 19.9% Net 净利润 profit ( 百万元人民币 (US$m) ) (12) YoY % n.a n.a 182.5% 44.1% 14.9% Net 净利润率 margin -3.2% 3.6% 9.1% 11.7% 12.2% EPS 每股盈利 (US$) ( 美元 ) (.8) YoY % n.a n.a 171.3% 53.7% 15.9% Dividend 股息 ( 百万美元 (US$m) ) Payout 派息比率 ratio.% 24.7% 28.5% 23.% 25.5% 净资产收益率 (%) ROE (%) (3.7) Dividend 股息收益率 yield (%) (%) n.a PER 市盈率 (x) ( 倍 ) n.a PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) 来源 : 彭博, 骨科业务有望在 217 年第四季实现盈亏平衡对于预期骨科业务可收支平衡的原因, 主要是由于 :1)GSC 在原材料和仪器供应方面节省成本 ;2) 公司将部分产品的生产从美国转移到中国 ; 3) 通过在 214 年 11 月推出的 SuperPath Hip 技术, 骨科业务在中国市场的销售将受到提振 ; 若与传统的后髋关节技术相比, SuperPath Hip 技术的切口较小, 愈合速度较快 ;SuperPath 可用于所有市面上的髋部产品, 但采用 SuperPath 的医院必须同意只使用 MP 的髋部产品 ;4) 于 215 年 8 月在中国推出的 Keen 产品 Evolution, 目前处于快速发展阶段管理层重申, 骨科业务将在 217 年第四季实现盈亏平衡 ( 图 2), 这代表 217 年 12 月将实现轻微盈利在 218 年, 我们预计 1) 公司销售将侧重于高毛利产品 ;2) 公司成本将得到节省 ; 及 3) 公司将推出新产品, 并使骨科毛利率从目前的约 65% 提高到近 7%( 中国行业平均水平 ), 最终推动骨科企业开始录得盈利

2 COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Analyst: Harry He (harryhe@chinastock.com.hk; Tel: ); Nov 3, 217 We visited MicroPort management in Shanghai last week for the latest updates. The Company s turnaround on its Orthopedics business is on track, but we have concerns about the adverse financial impact of its recently acquired CRM business. The Company is trading at 27/23x 217E/18E consensus PER, which is basically fairly valued, given the expected 33% EPS CAGR in E and close to its historical average of 28x (Figure 3). Further upside requires a concrete CRM ramp-up and synergy plans, evidence of profits from Orthopedics in 218E, and continued fast growth of Firehawk. Investors should wait for the visibility of these catalysts to become clearer before entering. Downside risks include the adverse financial impact of its CRM business and execution risk on CRM synergies. CRM deal good strategically but not financially. Strategically, we believe the recent acquisition of the cardiac rhythm management (CRM) business (reported revenue of US$245.9m and net loss of US$2.8m in 216) from LivaNova (NASDAQ:LIVN) at a cost of US$19m will create synergies with MiroPort s original Cardiovascular business and enable MicroPort gets access to world-leading CRM technologies. However, financially this may NOT be a good deal. As MicroPort does not have sufficient cash on its balance sheet, it needs re-financing to close the deal: 1) If MicroPort issues debt, this will gear up its net debt to equity from 35% as of June 3, 217 to >7% and increase the finance cost to ~US$9m in 218E (assuming it borrows another US$15m and an average cost of debt of 6%), which is equivalent to 15% of 218E consensus net profit. 2) On the other hand, as its share price has jumped >7% this year, the Company may consider issuing new shares to raise funds. Assuming target financing of US$15m, issuing 156m shares (or 9.7% of enlarged share capital) at HK$7.5/share (13% discount to the latest close) would dilute 218E consensus EPS from US$.41 to US$.36 (assuming the CRM business would break even in 218E); this would drive the current valuation up to ~31x 218E PER, close to 1sd above its historical average. Furthermore, at this moment there are not yet detailed plans to ramp up the CRM business, so overall, we think getting into the CRM business is good strategically but not financially. Future M&A strategy: Management reiterated that the Company s future M&A strategy involves acquiring a business which complies with the Company s overall strategy and will have synergies with its existing business at a reasonable price (focusing mainly on overseas assets), regardless of whether the assets are profit-making or not. MicroPort (853.HK; NOT-RATED) (HK$) /11/216 28/5/217 28/11/217 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) Market Cap: US$1615.6m; Free float: 4.4% FY ended on Dec 3 215A 216A 217E 218E 219E Revenue (US$m) YoY % 5.8% 3.7% 12.2% 12.1% 1.6% EBIT (US$m) EBIT margin 2.4% 11.8% 16.1% 2.% 19.9% Net profit (US$m) (12) YoY % n.a n.a 182.5% 44.1% 14.9% Net margin -3.2% 3.6% 9.1% 11.7% 12.2% EPS (US$) (.8) YoY % n.a n.a 171.3% 53.7% 15.9% Dividend (US$m) Payout ratio.% 24.7% 28.5% 23.% 25.5% ROE (%) (3.7) Dividend yield (%) n.a PER (x) n.a PBR (x) Source: Bloomberg Orthopedics business on track to break even in Q Orthopedics expected break-even will come from: 1) cost savings from GSC in terms of raw materials and instrument supply; 2) shifting some manufactured products from the U.S. to China; 3) using the SuperPath Hip Technique, introduced in Nov 214, to drive Orthopedics sales in the China market; it offers the advantages of a small incision and faster healing over traditional posterior hip techniques; SuperPath can be applied to all marketed hip products, but hospitals adopting SuperPath have to agree to exclusively use MP s hip products; and 4) the Keen product Evolution, which was launched in China in Aug 215, is in the early stage fast-growth stage. Management reiterated that the Orthopedics business would break even in Q4 217 (Figure 2), i.e. make some profit in Dec 217. In 218E, we expect 1) a sales focus on high gross margin products, 2) cost savings, and 3) the introduction of new products to drive the gross margin of Orthopedics from the current ~65% to close to 7% (industry average in China) to help Orthopedics become profitable. (HK$ million)

3 COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Nov 29, 217 Analyst: Harry He (harryhe@chinastock.com.hk; Tel: ); Cardiovascular business: The cardiovascular segment is the most important operating profit contributor (Figure 1) for the Company, with a profit margin of 43.7% in 1H217. Some 9% of Cardiovascular revenue comes from two flagship products: Firebird 2 (FB) and Firehawk (FH, new generation of Firebird 2). FB and FH are used for coronary artery stenosis or occlusion disease ( 冠狀動脈狹窄或閉塞 ).MicroPort has a ~27% market share, Lepu Medical (33.CH) has ~25%, JW Medical has ~2%, and the remainder is shared by international players, such as Abbott, Boston Scientific and Medtronic in the coronary artery stenosis or occlusion disease market, which has had a CAGR of ~13% in recent years. Going forward, we expect FB to deliver a single-digit top-line CAGR in the future, given its relatively mature nature (launched in 29 and covering >13 hospitals). FH is expected to continue its strong growth momentum, as 1) it is still in the fast-growth stage (+13% in 1H217); and 2) growth in new overseas markets, such as India (it current covers 24 overseas countries); and 3) better drug efficacy. Beyond that, new Cardiovascular products Transcatheter Aortic Valve and Firesorb are expected to come in Risks: Slower-than-expected turnaround of Orthopedics; execution risks of creating synergy with the CRM acquisition. Company background: Founded in 1998, MicroPort is a leading medical device manufacturer, focusing on the Cardiovascular, Orthopedics and Endovascular areas. It was listed on the HK exchange in 21. The biggest shareholder holds a 26.85% stake. Figure 1: 1H217 revenue and operating profit breakdown US$m Segment revenue Segment profit Source: Company

4 1/216 4/216 7/216 1/216 1/217 4/217 7/217 1/217 COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Analyst: Harry He (harryhe@chinastock.com.hk; Tel: ); Nov 29, 217 Figure 2: Narrowing of net loss for Orthopedics US$m 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Orthopedics revenue Orthopedics net loss Margin -25.1% -37.4% -15.% -24.3% -14.6% -11.4% -8.6% Source: Company Figure 3: Historical PE band since 216 HK$ X 33.4X 28.3X 23.2X 18.1X Source: Bloomberg Figure 4: Peer comparison Price Mkt Cap PER(x) PBR(x) ROE(%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company Ticker HK$ HK$m 217E 218E 219E 217E 218E 219E 217E 218E 219E 217E 218E 219E MICROPORT SCIENT , SHANDONG WEIG-H , SHANGHAI HAOHA-H , BLOOMAGE BIOTE 963 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a LIFETECH SCI , n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a MODERN DENTAL GR , GOLDEN MEDITECH ,263 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a PW MEDTECH GROUP , n.a n.a n.a TIANJIN TEDA-H n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a GENSCRIPT BIOTEC , n.a n.a n.a BEIJING CHUNLI-H n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a HK LIFE SCI n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a AUSTAR , n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 18.9 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Simple average Median Source: Bloomberg

5 Nov 29, 217 COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS Analyst: Harry He (harryhe@chinastock.com.hk; Tel: ); Figure 5: MicroPort s Shanghai office Source: CGIS research

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China Medical System [867.HK] 215 results takeaway: new products and acquisition to aid growth, maintain BUY CMS s 215 results were largely in line wi

China Medical System [867.HK] 215 results takeaway: new products and acquisition to aid growth, maintain BUY CMS s 215 results were largely in line wi 康哲药业 [867.HK] 215 年业绩摘要 : 新产品的推出并购均将推动增长, 维持买入评级康哲药业的 215 年业绩基本符合预期 : 收入同比增长 2.7% 至 35.54 亿元人民币, 核心净利润同比增长 2.4% 至 8.28 亿元人民币总体而言, 我们预计公司核心产品的增长将开始放缓 ( 与过去几年相比 ), 主要是由于高基数效应和产品相对成熟我们相信新产品的推出将成为公司未来增长的重要驱动力