March 28, 2018 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Under pressure in 2018; Maintain HOLD. Luye s 2017 net profit was RMB981m (+10% YoY), which was largely in line wi

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1 2018 年月 28 日绿叶制药 [2186.HK] 2018 年盈利将面对压力 ; 评级维持持有绿叶制药 2017 年纯利为 9.81 亿元人民币 ( 同比增长 10%), 接近我们预测的 9.8 亿元人民币, 同时较市场共识预测的 9.21 亿元人民币低约 6% 我们认为, 未来两年的主要增长动力仍是力扑素 ( 占 2018 年盈利的约 6%) 尽管力扑素在 2017 年强劲增长, 我们对 2018 年前景维持谨慎, 因为 :1) 石药集团的紫杉醇 - 白蛋白于 2018 年 2 月推出, 而恒瑞亦即将推出有关产品 ;2) 力扑素不在全国医保目录上, 因此可能会从省医保报销名单中被删除 ; 预计各省将在 2018 年前完成这轮报销名单的审查, 因此力扑素可能会在 2019 年开始于部分省份的报销名单上被剔出此外, 我们预计在未来两年, 公司的新产品不会带来明显的利润贡献有望带来最高利润增长的是利培酮, 其将于 2019 年在中国和美国推出市场 ; 我们预计它会在 2020 年底或之后贡献利润总体来说, 我们只是微调了盈利预测我们认为, 待省级医保报销名单经过审视后, 公司的 2019 年利润会更有效反映力扑素面对紫杉醇白蛋白的竞争的影响, 因此我们将基准年推移至 2019 年, 并将目标价从 6. 港元 (17 倍 2018 年市盈率 ) 上调至 7.86 港元 (17 倍 2019 年市盈率 ) 评级维持持有投资亮点 2017 年业绩亮点 : 绿叶制药 2017 年净利润为 9.81 亿元人民币 ( 同比增长 10%), 大致符合我们预测的 9.8 亿元人民币, 并较市场共识预测的 9.21 亿元人民币高出约 6% 期内收入增长 0.7%, 主要是由于并表了来自 Acino 和力扑素的内生增长尤其是力扑素的收入同比增长 19%, 符合 IMS 终端数据和我们的预期根据公司资产负债表, 公司仍有净现金超过 10 亿元人民币, 反映公司有并购潜力力扑素将在 2018/19 年面临压力 : 我们对力扑素在 2018/19 年的展望保持谨慎, 因为 1) 该药品面对紫杉醇 - 白蛋白 ( 用于乳腺癌 ) 的潜在竞争 ; 虽然它与力扑素具有相似功效, 但石药和恒瑞的营销和学术推广能力更强 ;2) 力扑素不在全国医保目录上, 这意味着它可能会在今年的评审中从省级医保报销名单上被剔出持有收盘价 : 7.72 港元 (2018 年月 28 日 ) 目标价 : 7.86 港元 (+1.8%) 股價表現中国医药业 (HK$) // /9/2017 Turnover (RHS) (HK$ million) Price (LHS) 市值 US222.0m 已发行股数,21.1m 核数师 E&Y 自由流通量.7% 2 周交易区间 HK$ 三个月日均成交量 US$20.m 新产品利润贡献依然需时显现 : 公司最快推出的研发成果将是于 2019 年在中国和美国推出的利培酮 ( 针对精神分裂症 ), 因此我们预计它将在 2020 年下旬或之后贡献利润, 因此绿叶制药的利润在 2019 年和 2020 年或缺乏新的增长动力, 因力扑素的增长放缓主要股东来源 : 公司, 彭博何霜霖分析员 (82) 主席刘殿波 Y/E 截至 Dec 12 月底止年度 1 201A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 收入 Turnover ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) 2,6 2,918,81,,92 核心净利润 Net profit (RMB ( 百万元人民币 m) ) ,08 1,19 核心净利润率 Net margin (%) 29.% 0.6% 2.7% 2.% 2.1% 每股核心盈利 EPS (RMB) ( 人民币 ) 百分比变动 YoY 7.% 18.1% 10.1% 10.6% 10.0% 市盈率 PER (x) ( 倍 ) 市净率 PBR (x) ( 倍 ) 净资产收益率 ROE (%) 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.0% 1.% EV/EBITDA ( 倍 )(x) Sources: 来源 : 公司 Company,, 中国银河国际证券研究部 CGIS Research estimates harryhe@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (82) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 March 28, 2018 Luye Pharm [2186.HK] Under pressure in 2018; Maintain HOLD. Luye s 2017 net profit was RMB981m (+10% YoY), which was largely in line with our projection of RMB98m and beat market consensus of RMB921m by ~6%. We believe the key growth driver in the next two years will still be Lipusu (which accounted for ~6% of 2018E profit). Despite Lipusu s strong growth in 2017, we maintain a cautious view on its outlook in 2018 as 1) CSPC s Paclitaxel-Albumin was launched in Feb 2018, and Hengrui is about to be launched; and 2) Lipusu is not on the NRDL, so it may be removed from the provincial reimbursement list; each province is expected to complete this round of reviews of the reimbursement list review by 2018, so Lipusu may be removed from the reimbursement list of some provinces starting in Moreover, we do not expect any meaningful profit contribution from new products in the next two years. The fastest meaningful candidate is Risperidone, which is about to be marketed in China and the US in 2019; we expect it to contribute profit at end-2020 or later. Overall, we just fine tuned our forecast numbers. We lifted our Target Price from HK$6. (17x 2018E PER) to HK$7.86 (17x 2019E PER) after rolling over to 2019 as the base year because we think the profit in 2019 will better reflect Lipusu s potential risk from competition with Paclitaxel-Albumin and after the provincial reimbursement list review. Maintain HOLD. Investment Highlights 2017 results highlights: Luye s 2017 net profit was RMB981m (+10% YoY), which was largely in line with our projection of RMB98m and beat market consensus of RMB921m by ~6%. Revenue was up 0.7%, mainly due to consolidation of Acino and Lipusu s organic growth. In particular, Lipusu reported 19% YoY revenue growth, in line with IMS terminal data and our expectation. According to the balance sheet, it still has net cash of >RMB1bn, implying M&A potential. Lipusu in 2018/19 under pressure: We remain cautious on the Lipusu outlook in 2018/19 because of 1) potential competition from Paclitaxel- Albumin (for breast cancer); although it has similar efficacy to Lipusu, both CSPC and Hengrui s marketing and academic promotion capability is stronger; and 2) the fact that Lipusu is not on the NRDL, which means it may be removed from the provincial reimbursement lists in this year s round of reviews. New product profit contribution still far away: The fastest meaningful R&D launch candidate is Risperidone (for schizophrenia), which is about to be marketed in China and U.S. in 2019, so we expect it to contribute profit in late 2020 or later, i.e. Luye s profit growth in 2019 and 2020 may lack new drivers with Lipusu fading. Y/E Dec 1 201A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E Turnover (RMB m) 2,6 2,918,81,,92 Net profit (RMB m) ,08 1,19 Net margin 29.% 0.6% 2.7% 2.% 2.1% EPS (RMB) YoY 7.% 18.1% 10.1% 10.6% 10.0% PER (x) PBR (x) ROE 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.0% 1.% EV/EBITDA (x) Sources: Company, CGIS Research estimates HOLD (Unchanged) Close: HK$7.72 (March 28, 2018) Target Price: HK$7.86 (+1.8%) Price Performance (HK$) Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor US222.0m,21.1m E&Y Free Float.7% 2W range China Healthcare Sector 28// /9/2017 Turnover (RHS) M average daily T/O Major Shareholding Sources: Company, Bloomberg Harry He Analyst (82) harryhe@chinastock.com.hk HK$ US$20.m Chairman Liu Dian Bo (6.2%) Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (82) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk Price (LHS) (HK$ million)

3 Key financials P&L (RMBm) 201A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E Cash flow (RMBm) 201A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue 2,6 2,918,81,,92 Pretax profit ,116 1,26 1,60 Oncology 1,9 1,70 1,872 2,1 2,11 D&A Cardiovascular System Change in working capital (17) () (72) 7 (170) Alimentary Tract and Metabolism ,120 Income tax paid (111) (81) (16) (18) (16) Others Others (86) (9) (29) (8) () COGS (76) () (81) (1,00) (1,11) Operating cash flow ,12 1,9 1,278 Gross profit 2,087 2,8 2,96,1,811 Selling and distribution expenses (96) (1,122) (1,287) (1,11) (1,68) Capex (20) (611) () (00) (00) Administrative expenses (18) (267) (2) () (9) Purchase of intangible assets () (79) (70) (0) (0) Other expenses (190) (199) (16) (69) (11) Acquisition of subsidiaries EBIT ,117 1,221 Others 8 (09) (1,01) D&A Investing cash flow 20 (1,879) (1,66) (21) (208) EBITDA ,17 1,89 1,16 Finance costs (16) (0) (0) (9) () Proceed from/(repayment of) borrowings 197 1,122 1,27 (800) (600) Share of profit of an associate Proceed from equity Other income and gains Dividend paid Pretax profit ,116 1,26 1,60 Others (16) (216) Tax (1) (81) (16) (18) (16) Financing cash flow ,11 (800) (600) After tax profit ,087 1,197 MI 10 2 (1) 2 2 Net change in cash 686 (6) Reported net profit ,08 1,19 Adjusted net profit ,061 1,08 1,19 Reported EPS (RMB) Adjusted EPS (RMB) DPS(RMB) Payout 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Balance sheet (RMBm) 201A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 201A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E Balance Sheet (as of end-dec) Growth rate Property, plant and equipment 1,196 1,702 2,010 2,19 2,29 Revenue 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 16.% 11.% Goodwill ,07 1,07 1,07 EBIT 12.% 6.2% 16.9% 20.2% 9.% Other intangible assets EBITDA 11.2% 8.% 26.1% 18.% 9.1% Available-for-sale investments Recurring net profit 19.1% 1.2% 22.1% 2.2% 10.0% Total non current assets 1,981,92,6,,601 Recurring EPS 7.% 1.2% 22.1% 2.2% 10.0% Operating ratios Inventories Gross margin 81.% 81.7% 77.7% 77.% 77.0% Trade and notes receivables 1,19 1,1 1,11 1,11 1,7 EBIT margin 29.2% 27.2% 2.% 2.1% 2.7% Pledged short-term deposits EBITDA margin.% 1.9% 0.7% 1.% 0.6% Cash and cash equivalents,206 2,77,81,222,692 Recurring net margin 29.% 29.8% 27.8% 2.% 2.1% Due from related parties Adjusted ROE 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.0% 1.% Total current assets,071,282 6,296 6,797 7,9 Adjusted ROA 11.% 10.7% 10.6% 9.8% 10.2% Total assets 7,0 9,206 10,760 11,1 12,096 Interest coverage (EBITDA) Net debt/equity Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash LT borrowings Current ratio Deferred revenue Quick ratio Total non-current liabilities Days inventories Days receivables Trade and notes payables Days payables ST borrowings 02 1,62 2,861 2,061 1,61 Due to related parties ,10 Total current liabilities 1,0 2,7,6,1 2,712 Issued capital Treasure stock - - (9) (9) (9) Reserves,27 6,001 6,800 7,886 9,080 MI Total equity,800 6,62 6,896 7,98 9,180 Total equity and liabilities 7,0 9,206 10,760 11,1 12,096 Source: Company, CGIS Research estimates

4 Figure 1: Peer comparison PER(x) PBR(x) ROE(%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company name Ticker Price (HK$) Market cap (HK$m) E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E LUYE PHARMA GROU* , SIHUAN PHARM ,2 n.a BAIYUNSHAN PH-H , CSPC PHARMACEUTI , SINO BIOPHARM , LIVZON PHARM-H , SHANGHAI FUDAN-H 19.72, LEE'S PHARM , n.a n.a n.a DAWNRAYS PHARMAC 28., n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Simple average Median * CGIS research estimate Source: Bloomberg

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Explanation on Equity Ratings BUY SELL HOLD : : share price will increase by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms share price will decrease by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms : no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL Copyright Reserved No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited. China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, CE No.AXM9 20/F, Wing On Centre, 111 Connaught Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. General line:

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229 高曉慶, Stanley Kao 陳漢輝, Freddy Chan 申萬宏源研究 ( 香港 ) 有限公司申萬宏源 A 股每日資訊 - Shenwan Hongyuan A-Share Daily Notes stanley.kao@swhyhk.com freddy.hf.chan@swhyhk.com 2016 年 2 月 29 日星期一 (852)