DC Holdings [861.HK] 1H 216 results in line with previous alert. Management s tone is downbeat. During the 1H 216 results presentation, DC Holdings (D

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1 神州控股 [861.HK] 216 年中期业绩符合此前的预报 ; 管理层语调平淡在 216 年中期业绩发布会中, 神州控股管理层提到广电运通 [ 212.CH] 的行动已影响了该公司的转型计划, 亦对公司短期内的发展和经营业绩 ( 撇除神州信息 ) 产生负面影响该公司下半年的财务业绩也很可能会受到拖累管理层也提到, 他们正积极与广电运通进行沟通, 但是目前双方未达成共识我们最初对神州控股持正面看法, 是由于公司持有神州信息 [.CH] 股权, 以及公司的互联网业务正在不断扩大神州控股近日股价表现强劲, 我们认为这是由于深港通即将开通所致, 而该股价涨势并无良好的短期财务表现的支持我们仍然建议投资者等待以下因素变得明朗方重新进场 :( 一 ) 神州控股管理层和广电运通的讨论的结果 ;( 二 ) 神州控股未来的投资战略我们维持持有评级, 目标价为 6.38 港元 ( 基于 2 倍 217 年市盈率 ) 我们将基准年从 216 年推移至 217 年, 因为我们预计神州控股将在 216 年录得净亏损 ( 撇除出售收益 ) 投资亮点 216 年中期业绩摘要 : 公司 216 上半年净利润为亿港元, 同比增长 23.3%, 主要受助于 4.98 亿港元的一次性出售收益 ( 与出售硬件分销业务有关 ) 上半年核心净亏损为 1.27 亿港元, 对比 21 上半年录得净利润 1.27 亿港元期内收入同比上升 1.% 至 4 亿港元, 主要受助于神州信息和新业务 ( 智慧城市 ) 的收入上升公司上半年录得净亏损主要是由于 :( 一 ) 经营费用同比上升 22%, 该费用主要用于智慧城市业务和云计算相关业务的研发 ;( 二 ) 非经营性费用 2.4 亿港元, 对比 21 年上半年收益为,4 万港元, 主要是由于期内的融资成本和外汇损失所致公司的新业务 ( 一个智慧城市项目 ) 在上半年实现收入 2.73 亿港元, 占总收入的 %, 对比 21 上半年的占比为 1% 然而, 由于经营费用上升, 新业务录得经营亏损 2,1 万港元, 对比 21 上半年录得收益 1,8 万港元由于市场竞争激烈, 公司 216 上半年毛利率同比下降 3.2 个百分点神州控股供应链销售同比下降 14%, 主要由于神州控股终止了低利润率的电子商务进销存业务管理层的语调比较平淡在 216 中期业绩发布会中, 公司管理层提到, 广电运通的行动已影响了神州控股的转型计划神州控股不太可能实现利润 ( 撇除神州信息 ) 直至转型过程变得顺畅公司管理层正积极与广电运通沟通, 但一直未有达成共识神州信息还采取了牺牲利润率以抢占中国 IT 服务市场份额的战略神州信息 216 年收入增长带来的影响, 将受到利润率受压所抵消总体而言,216 年对神州控股来说将是充满挑战的一年该公司的债务水平也同比上涨, 因为它增加了银行借款以偿还供应商此前提供用于营运的贷款管理层仍认为, 智慧城市项目不太可能在短期内作出贡献, 因为仍处于投资阶段盈利调整 : 我们下调了公司 216 年和 217 年盈利预测我们预计神州控股 216 年将录得净亏损亿港元在下调了毛利率预测及考虑到经营开支上升后, 我们将 217 年净利润预测由.9 亿港元下调至亿港元神州控股近日股价表现强劲, 我们认为这是由于深港通即将开通加上公司持有神州信息股权所致我们建议投资者等待以下因素变得明朗方重新进场 :( 一 ) 公司股权结构 ;( 二 ) 神州控股未来的投资策略 216 年 9 月 1 日 TMT 行业软件持有收盘价 : 6.99 港元 (216 年 8 月 31 日 ) 目标价 : 6.38 港元 (-8.8%) 股价表现 (HK$) (HK$ million) Apr1 Jun1 Aug1 Oct1 Dec1 Feb16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 市值亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 Ernst & Young 自由流通量 48.6% 2 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 7 万美元主要股东广电运通 (19.%) Allianz SE (7.98%) 郭为 (6.1%) 联想控股有限公司 (4.79%) Key 主要财务指标 Financials ( 百万港元 (in HKDm) ) 213* 214* 21* 216E* 217E* Revenue 收入 2, ,16.2 1, , ,26.2 Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %) %) (28.9) (76.7) (12.) Gross 毛利润 Profit 3, ,81.8 2,216. 2,296. 2,781.7 Gross 毛利润率 Margin (%) % 净利润 Net Profit 净利润率 (%) Net Margin % 每股收益 ( 基本 ) EPS (Basic) 变动 ( 同比 %) Change (YoY %) (3.) (76.3) 19. (7.7) 2.1 每股股息 DPS $.178 $.192 $. $. $.64 ROE 净资产收益率 (%) (%) 股息收益率 (%) Dividend Yield (%) 市盈率 ( 倍 )( 已就 216 年特别股息作调整 ) PER (x) adjusted for special dividend declared in 市净率 ( 倍 )( 已就 216 年特别股息作调整 ) PBR (x) adjusted for special dividend declared in 自由现金流收益率 (%) FCF Yield (%).% 19.% 3.39% -8.28% 3.34% 资本开支 ( 百万元 ) Capex (m) (139.9) (167.) (2.) (.) (3.) 每股自由现金流 Free cash flow per share (.6).2 净负债比率 (%) Net Gearing (%) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部, *: 213 年只有第二至第四季数据 ; 年数据包括公司的持续经营业务, 以及计划出售和已终止的硬件分销业务 ; 年预测仅包括其持续经营业务布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (82) markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文,CFA 研究部主管 (82) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 DC Holdings [861.HK] 1H 216 results in line with previous alert. Management s tone is downbeat. During the 1H 216 results presentation, DC Holdings (DCH) management mentioned that action by GRG Banking Equipment (GRG) [212.CH] had distorted DCH s transformation progress and had a negative impact on the Company s growth and operating performance (excluding DCITS) in the near term. The Company s financial performance is likely to drag in 2H 216 as well. Management also mentioned that they are actively communicating with GRG, but that there was no consensus between the two parties at this stage. We originally held a positive view on DCH, given its holding in DCITS [.CH] and increasing exposure to internet-based business. DCH s strong share price performance, in our view, was due to the launch of Shenzhen-HK Connect. However, the recent share price rally is not supported by near-term financial performance. We still suggest investors wait for clarity on (a) the discussion between DCH management and GRG, and (b) DCH s future investment strategy before looking for a re-entry opportunity. We maintain our HOLD rating with a target price of HK$6.38 (based on 2x 217E PER). We rolled over the base year from 216 to 217, as we expect DCH to report a net loss in 216, excluding disposal gains. Investment Highlights 1H 216 results highlights. DCH s 1H 216 net profit was HK$432.6m, up 23.3% YoY, which was attributable mainly to a one-off disposal gain of HK$498m (related to disposal of the hardware distribution business). The core net loss was HK$127m in 1H 216 vs. a net profit of HK$127m in 1H 21. DCH s top line was up 1.% YoY to HK$.4bn, driven mainly by an increase in turnover from DCITS and new businesses (Sm@rt City). The net loss in 1H 216 was due mainly to (a) a 22% YoY increase in operating expenses, mainly for R&D in Sm@rt City operations and cloud-related business; and (b) HK$24m in non-operating expenses in 1H 216 vs. a HK$4m gain in 1H 21, mainly from financing costs and FX loss. The new business division, a Sm@rt City project, reported turnover of HK$273.m in 1H 216, accounting for % of total turnover vs. 1% of total turnover in 1H 21. However, due to higher operating expenses, the new business division reported an operating loss of HK$21m in 1H 216 vs. a HK$18m gain in 1H 21. DCITS gross margin dropped 3.2ppt YoY in 1H 216, given keener competition. DCH s supply chain sales dropped 14% YoY, due mainly to DCH s terminating its low-margin e- commerce invoicing business. Management s tone was somewhat downbeat. During the 1H216 results presentation, DCH management mentioned that DCH s transformation had been distorted by action by GRG. DCH is unlikely to make a profit (excluding DCITS) until the transformation goes more smoothly. DCH management is actively communicating with GRG, but there has been no consensus between them. DCITS has also adopted the strategy of sacrificing margin to gain market share in the China IT services market. The impact of turnover growth at DCITS will be offset by margin pressure in 216. Overall, 216 will be challenging year for DCH. The Company s debt level also rose YoY as it increased its bank borrowings to repay credits previously offered by its suppliers to fund operations. Management reiterated the view that the Sm@rt City projects are unlikely to make a contribution in the near term as they are still in the investment phase. Earnings adjustment. We revised downwards our earnings forecasts for 216 and 217. We expect DCH to report a net loss of HK$181.3m in 216. We revised downwards our net profit forecast for 217 from HK$.9 to HK$374.7m after revising downwards our gross margin assumptions for DCITS and factoring in high operating expenses for DCH. DCH shares have performed well recently which, in our view, is due to the launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect, given DCH s stake in DCITS. We suggest investors wait for clarity on the shareholding structure and future investment strategy of DCH before looking for a re-entry opportunity. Key Financials (in HKDm) 213* 214* 21* 216E* 217E* Revenue 2, ,16.2 1, , ,26.2 Change (YoY %) (28.9) (76.7) (12.) Gross Profit 3, ,81.8 2,216. 2,296. 2,781.7 Gross Margin % Net Profit Net Margin % EPS (Basic) Change (YoY %) (3.) (76.3) 19. (7.7) 2.1 DPS $.178 $.192 $. $. $.64 ROE (%) Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) adjusted for special dividend declared in PBR (x) adjusted for special dividend declared in FCF Yield (%).% 19.% 3.39% -8.28% 3.34% Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (82) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (82) TMT Sector Software HOLD Close: HK$6.99 (Aug 31, 216) Target Price: HK$6.38 (-8.8%) Share Price Performance (HK$) Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$1,467m 1,96.4m Ernst & Young Free Float 48.6% 2W range 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholding September 1, 216 Apr1 Jun1 Aug1 Oct1 Dec1 Feb16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) HK$ US$7.m GRG Bank Equipment (19.%) Allianz SE (7.98%) Guo Wei (6.1%) Legend Holdings (4.79%) Capex (m) (139.9) (167.) (2.) (.) (3.) Free cash flow per share (.6).2 Net Gearing (%) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research, *: data include the company s continuing operations as well as discontinued hardware distribution business; forecasts for 217 only includes its continuing operations. 2

3 Figure 1: Key assumptions for DCH F 217F Turnover (HKD m) Distribution 38, , ,24.1 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. Supply chain 1, ,211. 1,64.6 3,99. 2,8.1 2,61.7 2,427.2 Systems 23, , ,638.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services 7, ,13.1 7,36.7 8,13.8 8,16. 8,83.8 1,83.8 Internet finance Smart City Operation Total 7, , , ,16.2 1, , ,26.2 YoY Change (%) Distribution (1.) (3.3) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain.6 (12.1) (47.) (.9) 17.7 Systems 1.2 (31.1) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services 14.2 (18.9) Internet finance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Smart City Operation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a Total 4. (28.9) (76.7) (12.) Gross margin (%) Distribution n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain Systems n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services Internet finance Smart City Operation Net margin (%) Cost (HKD m) Cost of Sales (46,878.) (68,128) (48,886) (1,34) (8,41) (9,18) (1,47) S,G&A (2,7.2) (4,79.2) (3,214.3) (1,478.9) (1,89.) (2,33.) (2,222.9) Financial Expenses (33.4) (293.2) (178.7) (6.8) (73.7) (24.1) (182.9) YoY Change (%) Cost of Sales 4.3 (28.2) (78.9) n.a R&D 48.1 (21.2) (4.) n.a (4.8) Financial Expenses (12.6) (39.) (66.) n.a (2.4) CAPEX (HKD m) Net Gearing (%) Net Cash Net Cash Turnover breakdown of DCITS (DC's IT Services segment) (HKD m) 7, ,9. 6, ,1.3 7,63.4 8,663.1 System integration,29.7 3, , ,99.7 3, ,761.7 Technology consultation 1,94. 1,74.1 1,86.3 1,9.8 2,14.9 2,36. Software development ,16. 1,383.1 Financial IT Agricultural informatization Turnover breakdown of Supply Chain Management (HKD m) E-commerce 1, Logistic ,64. 1,33.6 Maintanence 1, Source: Company, CGIS Research 3

4 Figure 2: Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY213* FY214* FY21* FY216F* FY217F* Cash Flow Statement (HKDm) FY213* FY214* FY21F* FY216F* FY217F* Revenue 2,26 68,343 14,4 16,378 19,392 Net Income 1,36 1, Growth yoy% (28.9%) 3.8% n.a. 17.% 18.4% Depreciation & Amort Gross Profit 3,379 4,817 2,13 2,484 2,989 Change in Working Capital (476) 78 2,462 (44) (76) Growth yoy% (37.1%) 42.6% n.a. 18.1% 2.3% Cash from Ops ,243 3, Selling General & Admin Exp. (3,214) (4,88) (1,639) (1,83) (2,173) Capital Expenditure (14) (167) (2) (2) (2) Others Operating Expenses/Items Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income Change in Investing Acitivities (733) (3,24) (2,721) 3,318 (496) Growth yoy% n.a. 344.% n.a. 39.9% 2.8% Cash from Investing (873) (3,691) (2,921) 3,118 (696) Interest Expense (178.7) (27.) (183.) (28.6) (24.) Net increase in bank borrowings Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates Issuance of Common Stock 2 Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) (12.) (8.) Common Dividends Paid (41) (19) (21) (1) (74) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest Other Financing Activities 221 1,614 (2,871) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing (173) 1,718 (3,81) Income Tax Expense (171) (239) (71) (17) (1) Minority Int. in Earnings 47 (21) (7) (12) (141) Net Change in Cash (362) 27 (2,727) 4,73 46 Net Income 1, Growth yoy% (93.9%) 733.4% n.a. 44.% 36.9% Balance Sheet (HKDm) FY213* FY214* FY21F* FY216F* FY217F* Ratios FY213* FY214* FY21F* FY216F* FY217F* ASSETS Profitability Cash And Equivalents 3,894 4,12 1,392,46,872 Return on Assets %.3% 2.2%.7% 1.2% 2.2% Receivables 1,113 13,28,978 6,992 8,278 Return on Capital % (.%) 1.9% 1.3% 2.4% 3.3% Inventory,636 6, Return on Equity % 1.1% 8.6% 3.% 4.2%.% Other Current Assets 89 1,9 21, Total Current Assets 2,41 2,17 29,824 13,876 1,762 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 1, 1, Gross Margin % 6.% 7.% 1.% 1.2% 1.4% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 6.2% 6.% 11.7% 11.2% 11.2% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin %.3% 1.1% 3.3% 4.% 4.2% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin %.6% 1.3% 4.%.1%.2% Other Long-Term Assets 3,143 7,21 7,12 7,617 8,113 Net Income Margin %.2% 1.% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 4,649 8,32 8,2 8,483 8,981 Total Asset Turnover 1.7x 2.x.4x.7x.8x Total Assets 3,1 33,78 37,826 22,39 24,743 Fixed Asset Turnover 11.2x 8.x 1.7x 1.9x 2.2x Accounts Receivable Turnover 3.x 4.8x 1.x 2.x 2.x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover 9.3x 11.1x 22.7x 22.7x 22.7x Accounts Payable 14,92 14,323 3,92 4,8,429 Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings 3,719 7,6 4,447,21 6,17 Current Ratio 1.4x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x 1.4x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.9x.8x.6x.2x 1.1x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities , Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities 18,69 21,742 2,741 9,81 11,68 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt 2,38 1,12 1,14 1,18 1,111 Net Debt to Equity 28% 47% 48% 9% 1% Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. Other Non-Current Liabilities Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 21,4 22,844 26,846 1,98 12,769 Total Revenue (28.9%) 3.8% n.a. 17.% 18.4% Common Stock Net Income (93.9%) 733.4% n.a. 44.% 36.9% Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio % 14.6% 29.4% 13.6% 16.4% 2.% Retained Earnings 7,617 8,491 8,37 8,86 9,288 Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest 1,32. 2, , ,43.9 2,76. Total Equity 9,46 1,864 1,98 11,41 11,974 Total Liabilities And Equity 3,1 33,78 37,826 22,39 24,743 Sources: Company, CGIS Research*: data include the company s continuing operations as well as discontinuing hardware distribution 4

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