September 27, 2017 Event: Earlier this week, we talked to Harbin Electric management regarding its earnings outlook and corporate strategy for busines

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庙常
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1 公司动态哈尔滨电气 [1133.HK; 3.66 港元 ; 未评级 ] 对盈利前景持谨慎态度, 但寄希望于国企改革分析员 : 邹敏 (kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk; 电话 : (852) ) 事件 : 在本周较早时候, 我们曾与哈尔滨电气管理层交谈, 当中讨论到公司的盈利前景和企业策略总体而言, 管理层认为核心的火电设备业务 ( 占总收入的 40%) 还是有下滑风险, 管理层所以抱持谨慎态度, 并预计其盈利在 2018 年以后有进一步下滑的风险在十三五期间, 中央政府其中一个目标是减少燃煤电厂, 并推动清洁能源, 从而减少空气污染虽然国家对天然气和核能发电的投资不断增加, 但只能部分抵消该公司燃煤电力设备业务需求下滑的影响若纯粹考虑公司盈利前景不佳, 股份似乎并不吸引, 但由于市净率仅 0.4 倍, 因此从国企改革的角度来看, 股份似乎值得留意, 尤其是近几个月来国企改革有所提速哈尔滨电气年 9 月 27 日年上半年业绩不俗 : 公司 2017 年上半年总收入同比增长 13.4%(2016 年同 Turnover(HK$m, rhs) Price(HK$) 比增长 23.1%) 除水电设备业务及配套设备业务外, 其他业务均录得收入增长 ( 图 3) 出乎市场预期, 作为核心业务的火电设备业务在 17 年上半年继续录得市值 : 6.45 亿美元 ; 自由流通量 : 100.0% Rmb m E 2018E 收入增长, 同比上涨 15.0%(2016 年 : 同比增长 30.4%) 上半年净利润基本持 Revenue 收入 ( 百万元 (m) ) 24,258 25,412 31,293 34,979 38,320 平期内公司毛利率同比增长 0.4 个百分点, 主要由于经营杠杆有所改善, 经营利 Gross 毛利润 ( profit 百万元 (m) ) 3,386 3,628 4,660 4,757 5,365 GPM 毛利率 (%) (%) 润率则保持稳定期内公司的销售一般及管理成本有所下降, 抵消了资产减值 Operating 经营利润 ( 百万元 profit )(m) ,111 和其他非经营性费用增加的影响随着融资成本上升和实际税率下降,17 年上半 Operating 经营利润率 (%) profit margin (%) Profit 税前利润 before ( 百万元 tax )(m) 年净利润基本持平 Net 净利润 profit ( 百万元 (m)) Net 净利润率 margin (%)(%) 作为核心业务的火电设备业务面临下滑风险 : 即使火电设备业务 2016 年和 2017 EPS 每股盈利 (Rmb) ( 人民币 ) 年上半年收入增长回升, 但将有进一步下滑的风险长期而言, 中国的新火电装股本回报率 (%) ROE (%) 4.5% 1.5% 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% 股息收益率 (%) Dividend yield (%) 机将保持下滑趋势在十三五期间, 中央政府其中一个目标是减少燃煤电厂, 市盈率 ( 倍 ) PER (x) 并推动清洁能源中央政府十三五规划的目标是发电量实现 5.5% 的年均复合市净率 ( 倍 ) PBR (x) 增长, 对比十二五期间为 9.5% 此外, 中央政府的目标是到 2020 年非化石燃料能源消费量占中国能源消费总量的 15%, 到 2030 年占 20% 在 2015 年, 中国的非化石燃料能源消耗占能源消耗总量的 12% 对于中央政府在十三五期间推进天然气和核能发电, 哈尔滨电气有望受益虽然国家对天然气和核能发电的投资不断增加, 但只能部分抵消该公司燃煤电力设备业务需求下滑的影响燃气轮机和核电设备业务占公司总收入的 10% 以下此外, 即使中央政府推动核电投资, 批准新项目的进度将取决于第三代核电技术的成熟度, 而这可能会在 2017 年之后发生由于新项目的启动与设备采购之间会存在时间滞后, 设备需求的增长将会更迟出现国企改革带来希望 : 鉴于燃煤发电行业供不应求, 市场一直期待国家发改委或国资委对三家全国性发电设备公司可能进行国企改革 : 这三家就是上海电气东方电气和哈尔滨电气迄今为止, 国家发改委已将发电行业列为首批混改试点行业之一, 哈尔滨电气的母公司是此次试点计划的国企之一来源 : 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部, 注 : 每股数据已计及增发股份鉴于近几个月铁路和电信行业的国企改革提速, 国家发改委和国资委有可能在 2017 年第四季加快发电行业的国企改革我们留意到哈尔滨电气日前宣布向母公司增发内资股总认购代价约 12.7 亿元人民币, 即 15.1 亿港元, 为目前市值的 30% 根据初步确定的认购价, 在增发完成后, 母公司的持股将从目前的 50.9% 增加至超过 60% 此次增发所得资金将用于 1) 与 GE 合资投资燃气轮机业务 ;2) 发展核电设备业务估值 : 受到 2016 年业绩优于预期提振, 哈尔滨电气的股价在 4 月中旬升至高位其后公司股价一直呈下行趋势, 因市场对公司中长期盈利增长前景持谨慎态度公司核心火力发电设备业务的长远下滑趋势, 或会使公司盈利增长受压若计及增发的股份, 该股目前的 2017 年市盈率为 8.3 倍,2018 年市盈率为 9.9 倍, 而历史平均市盈率为 15.0 倍公司的 2017 年和 2018 年市净率为 0.4 倍, 而历史平均市净率为 0.9 倍考虑到 2018 年的盈利增长和股本回报率前景较差, 其股价可能会继续受压若其母公司有更多国企改革的动作, 公司有可能获得重新估值 1

2 September 27, 2017 Event: Earlier this week, we talked to Harbin Electric management regarding its earnings outlook and corporate strategy for business development. Overall, management remains cautious about the downward trend of its core thermal power equipment business (c40% of its total revenue); it expects further downside risk to its earnings from 2018 onwards. In the 13t h FYP, the central government aims to cut new coal-fired power installations and promote the use of clean energy to reduce air pollution. The rising investment in natural gas and nuclear power generation can only partially offset the demand decline in the Company s coal-fired power equipment business. The stock may look unappealing based purely on its poor earnings outlook. But at a PBR of 0.4x, the stock may look interesting from the perspective of SOE reform, which has accelerated in recent months. Decent 1H17 results: The Company s total revenue grew 13.4% YoY in 1H17, after a 23.1% YoY rise in The revenue growth was seen across almost all the business segments except the hydro power equipment business and the ancillary equipment business (Fig 3). Contrary to market expectations, growth in core thermal power equipment business revenue continued in 1H17, rising 15.0% YoY in 1H17 (2016: 30.4% YoY). Net profit in 1H17 remained largely flat YoY. The Company reported gross profit margin expansion of 0.4ppt YoY due to improved operating leverage, and its operation profit margin in 1H17 remained stable. The Company realized significant SG&A cost savings, which offset an increase in its asset impairment and other nonoperating expenses. With higher financing costs and a lower effective tax rate, net profit was largely flat YoY in 1H17. No respite for the downward trend of its core thermal power equipment business: Even with revenue growth recovery in 2016 and 1H17, there will be further downside risk to its thermal power equipment business. New thermal power installations in China will remain on a downward trend in the long term. According to the 13 th FYP, the central government aims to cut new coal-fired power generation and promote the use of the clean energy. The central government s target in the 13 th FYP is for power-generation capacity to grow at a CAGR of only 5.5% vs. 9.5% in the 12 th FYP. Moreover, the central government s target is for non-fossil fuel energy consumption to represent 15% of China s total energy consumption by 2020 and 20% of the energy consumption by China s non-fossil fuel energy consumption stood at 12% of total energy consumption in Harbin Electric should benefit from the central government s promotion of natural gas and nuclear power generation in the 13 th FYP. But the rising investment in natural gas and nuclear power generation capacity can only partially offset the decline in the Company s thermal power equipment business decline. The gas turbine and nuclear power equipment business each contributes less than 10% of its total revenue. Moreover, even if the central government pushes nuclear power investment, new project approval depends on the maturity of third-generation nuclear power technology, which likely will happen after As there will be a time lag between new project starts and equipment procurement, the demand growth acceleration for equipment will happen even later. Hope from SOE reforms: Given the over-supply nature of the coal-fired power generation industry, the market has been long expecting the NDRC or SASAC to implement SOE reforms for the three nation-wide power generation equipment companies: Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric. So far, the NDRC has selected the electric power industry as one of the industries to conduct the first batch of mixed-ownership reform pilots, and Harbin Electric s parent company is one of the SOEs under this pilot program. Harbin Electric Turnover(HK$m, rhs) Price(HK$) Market Cap: US$645m; Free Float: 100.0% Rmb m E 2018E Revenue (m) 24,258 25,412 31,293 34,979 38,320 Gross profit (m) 3,386 3,628 4,660 4,757 5,365 GPM (%) Operating profit (m) ,111 Operating profit margin (%) Profit before tax (m) Net profit (m) Net margin (%) EPS (Rmb) Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CGIS Research, Note: per-share data reflecting new share issuance ROE (%) 4.5% 1.5% 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% Dividend yield (%) PER (x) PBR (x) Given the accelerating SOE reforms in the railway and telecom industries in recent months, it is highly likely that the NDRC and SASAC will accelerate SOE reforms in the power generation industry in Q We note that Harbin Electric recently announced that it will issue new domestic shares to its parent company. The total subscription price is around RMB1.27bn, or HK$1.51bn, 30% of its current market cap. After the share issuance, its parent company will increase its stake in the Company from the current 50.9% to >60% based on the initially determined subscription price. The net proceedings from this share issuance will be used 1) to invest in a JV with GE for the gas turbine business, and 2) to develop its nuclear power business. Valuation: Harbin Electric s share price reached a peak in around mid-april on the back of its stronger-than-expected 2016 earnings. The share price has been on a downward trend since then, as the market remains cautious about its earnings growth outlook in the medium to long term. The downward trend of its core thermal power equipment business in the long term might put its earnings growth under pressure. Including the new share issuance, the stock currently trades at 8.3x 2017E and 9.9x 2018E PER vs. its historical average PER of 15.0x. It is also trading at 0.4x 2017E and 2018E PBR vs. its historical average PBR of 0.9x. Given its poor earnings growth and ROE improvement outlook in 2018, its share price de-rating is likely to continue. Share price rerating opportunities will depend on potential SOE reform gestures from its parent company

3 Figure 1: Harbin Electric revenue mix in 2016 Figure 2: Harbin Electric geographic revenue mix in 2016 AC/DC motors and other products and services, 9% Other, 1% Indonesia, 3% Others, 6% India, 1% Ancillary equipme nt for power stations, 5% Engineering services for power stations, 32% Nuclear power, 6% Hydro power equipment, 8% Thermal power equipment, 39% Turkey, 7% Ecuador, 8% Pakistan, 9% Domestic, 67% Figure 3: Harbin Electric 1H17 result overview Rmb m 1H17 1H16 % YoY Thermal power equipment 6,873 5, % Hydro power equipment 609 1, % Nuclear power % Engineering services for power stations 6,726 4, % Ancillary equipment for power stations % AC/DC motors and other products and servi 1,025 1, % Other % Total revenue 16,977 14, % COGS -14,682-13, % GP 2,295 1, % GPM 13.5% 13.1% 0.4% SG&A -1,258-1, % Other gains and losses % OP % OPM 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% Financing cost % Profit contribution from associates na PBT % Tax % Effective tax rate -33.9% -49.6% 15.7% PAT % NPM 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% Minority interest na Profit to common shareholder % 3

4 Figure 4: Peer comparison Ticker Mkt cap Price PER EPS growth PEG P/Bk Dividend yield ROE US$ m E 2018E (lc) E 2018E 2017E E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E H-share companies Shanghai Electric 2727 HK 13, % 5.0% 5.6% % 1.3% 1.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% Dongfang Electric 1072 HK 3, na na 34.3% % 0.4% 0.6% -8.4% 2.2% 2.9% Harbin Electric 1133 HK % 24.0% -15.4% % 1.2% 1.0% 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% A-share companies Shanghai Electric CH 13, % 3.0% 7.0% % 0.7% 0.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% Dongfang Electric CH 3, na na 53.5% % 0.3% 0.6% -8.4% 2.0% 3.0% Source: Bloomberg, company data, CGIS Research, Note: based on closing prices on 26 September, 2017 Figure 5: New domestic share issuance to parent company Before share issuance After the completion of share issuance (assuming the final subscription price is the same as the initial subscription price) After the completion of share issuance (assuming the final subscription price is the same as the the maximum offer price) Parent company 50.93% 60.43% 60.07% Other public investors 49.07% 39.57% 39.93% Total no of shares 1,377 1,707 1,692 % dilution na 24.0% 22.9% Figure 6: Harbin Electric PER band Figure 7: Harbin Electric PBR band PER Average +1 Stdev -1 Stdev Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CGIS Research PBR Average +1 Stdev -1 Stdev Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CGIS Research 4

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