China Railway Group Limited [390.HK] Challenges in delivering high quality earnings growth We update our earnings forecast for CRG in China

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1 中国中铁 [390.HK] 要取得高质量的盈利增长仍有挑战我们更新年中国中铁的盈利预测中铁总目标 2018 年铁路固定资产投资同比下降 8.6% 至 7,320 亿元人民币随着铁路投资重点转向后周期运营, 我们认为年铁路建设投资增长有限中国中铁正在寻求从其他非铁路基础设施投资以及海外市场取得增长动力但是政府对 PPP 投资的严格规定将在短期内抑制基础设施投资即使公司涉足更多基建投资和海外市场, 但在资产周转和财务风险不恶化的前题下, 公司也将面临盈利增长的挑战中国中铁还需要时间积累技术和项目执行的经验我们将中国中铁年的盈利预测小幅上调 6% 左右, 以反映 2017 年采矿业务的强劲盈利表现我们维持持有评级公司的股价在 2017 年下跌了 8.8% 我们看不到股价有进一步下滑的风险我们的目标价为 6.29 港元, 基于 0.72 倍目标市净率, 对比历史平均水平为 0.8 倍投资亮点传统铁路业务 2018 年的增长空间较少 :2017 年铁路固定资产投资大致维持平稳, 中铁总的 2018 年铁路固定资产投资目标同比下降 8.6% 至 7,320 亿元人民币随着铁路投资重点转向后周期运营, 我们认为年铁路建设投资增长有限, 预期增速未会显着加快此外, 业务改革和金融去杠杆化为中铁总 2018 年的首要任务, 我们预期只有城际轨道及城市轨道交通网络发展可部份抵销 2018 年铁路投资的降幅建筑投资增长复苏取决于铁路业务改革未来将有更多城际轨道及城市轨道交通项目采用公共私营合作制 (PPP) 模式去解决资金问题基建 PPP 及海外扩充规模贡献仍微不足道 : 基于铁路业务增长疲弱, 中国中铁积极寻求从其他非铁路基础设施投资以及海外市场取得增长动力然而, 中国中铁在基建投资的业务规模小于中国交建和中铁建中国中铁的 BT 项目仅占其 2016 年总销售的 0.8%, 而中交建及中铁建 BT 项目占总销售比率分别达到 22.2% 及 4.7% 公司与 BOT 项目相关的无形资产占总资产比率为 4.9%, 而中交建及中铁建的相关占比分别为 17.9% 及 6.0% 随着公司进行金融去杠杆, 我们认为公司短期内对 PPP 基建的投资将不会显着增加海外市场方面, 中国中铁需要时间建立往绩纪录, 日后才能扩展业务海外业务收入占其 2016 年总收入约 5%, 即使海外业务增长加快, 亦不足以改变公司 2018 年核心业务的疲弱增长难以兼顾盈利增长 : 初期公司的 PPP 项目及海外业务加快增长应有助改善其利润率及股本回报率然而, 我们并不预期公司能大幅改善其股本回报率至其同业水平当中国中铁增加其 PPP 的投资业务规模并加速海外扩张, 我们预期在市场发展上将有额外开支由于 PPP 及海外项目的建筑期及现金周期较长, 届时公司的资产周转率亦会下降要市场信服公司能达到较快的盈利增长及改善其股本回报率, 我们认为公司仍需更多技术及项目执行经验维持持有评级 : 我们把目标市账率由原来的 0.86 倍下调至 0.72 倍, 并相应把目标价由原来的 6.39 港元下调至 6.29 港元持有收盘价 : HK$6.15 (2018 年 1 月 18 日 ) 目标价 : HK$6.29 (+2.3%) 股价表现市值已发行股数核数师亿美元亿股 Deloitte 自由流通量 92.0% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量主要股东来源 : 公司, 彭博邹敏分析员 (852) 中国建筑行业 Turnover(HK$m, rhs) kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk 2018 年 1 月 19 日 Price(HK$) ,500 万美元中国铁路工程总公司 (53.0%) Y/E Dec E 2017E 2018E Turnover 收入 ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) 540, , , , , ,650 Recurring 经常性净利润 net ( 百万元人民币 profit (RMB) m) 9,374 10,262 11,675 11,808 13,619 14,775 Net 净利润率 margin (%) (%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% Recurring 经常性每股盈利 EPS ( 人民币 (RMB)) % 百分比变动 change 26.8% 9.5% 10.0% -2.5% 15.3% 8.5% PER(x) 市盈率 ( 倍 ) PBR(x) 市净率 ( 倍 ) EV/EBITDA(x) 倍 ) 来源 : 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部预测王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 China Railway Group Limited [390.HK] Challenges in delivering high quality earnings growth We update our earnings forecast for CRG in China Railway Corporation (CRC) targets railway FAI in 2018E to decline 8.6% YoY to RMB732bn. As the railway investment focus shifts to late-cycle operations, we believe railway construction investment will remain subdued in CRG seeks growth from other non-railway infrastructure investments, as well as overseas markets. But stringent government regulations on PPP investment should dampen infrastructure investment in the short term. Even with increasing exposure to both infrastructure investment and overseas markets, CRG will face a challenge delivering earnings growth without jeopardizing its asset turnover and financial risk. CRG still needs time to accumulate technology and project execution experience. We slightly raise our earnings forecast for CRG in E by around 6% to reflect the strong earnings performance of its mining business in We maintain our Hold rating. CRG s share price fell 8.8% in We don t see further share price downside risk. Our target price of HK$6.29 is based on a target PBR multiple of 0.72x vs. its historical trading average of 0.80x. January 19, 2018 China construction sector HOLD Close: HK$6.15 (Jan 18, 2018) Target Price: HK$6.29 (+2.3%) Investment Highlights Traditional railway business unlikely to offer much growth upside in 2018: Railway FAI remained largely flattish in CRC targets railway FAI in 2018E to decline 8.6% YoY to RMB732bn. As the railway investment focus shifts to late-cycle operations, we believe railway construction investment will remain subdued in and expect no significant growth acceleration. Moreover, CRC will make business reform and financial deleveraging its top priority in We expect only intercity railway and urban transit network development to partially offset the railway investment decline in Construction investment growth recovery hinges on the success of railway business reforms. Increasingly, intercity rail and urban transit rail will apply the PPP model to resolve funding issues. Infrastructure PPP and overseas expansion still too small to matter: As its railway business growth remains lackluster, CRG is proactively seeking growth opportunities in other infrastructure investment and overseas markets. But CRG s business exposure to infrastructure investment is smaller than that of CCC and CRG. The long-term receivables related to its BT projects were 0.8% of total sales in 2016 vs. 22.2% for CCC and 4.7% for CRCC. Its intangible assets related to its BOT projects were 4.9% of total assets vs. 17.9% for CCC and 6.0% for CRCC. With financial deleveraging, we don t expect its exposure to PPP infrastructure investment to see a material change in the short term. In overseas markets, CRG needs time to build a track record to grow its business. Overseas business accounted for c5% of its total revenue in 2016, so faster overseas business growth still cannot change the tepid growth outlook of its core businesses in Difficult to achieve both earnings growth and a material change in ROE: In the initial stage, faster growth in its PPP and overseas business should enhance margins and ROE. But we don t expect there to be a material change in its ROE to match that of its peers. Once CRG increases its PPP investment business scale and accelerates its overseas expansion, we expect there to be extra costs related to market development. Asset turnover will also deteriorate, as PPP and overseas projects have longer construction periods and cash cycles. To convince the market it can deliver both fast earnings growth and ROE improvement, CRG still needs time to accumulate technology and project execution experience. Price Performance Market Cap US$28,623m Shares Outstanding 4,207m Auditor Deloitte Free Float 92.0% 52W range 3M average daily T/O HK$ US$15m Major Shareholding CRECG (53.0%) Sources: Company data, Bloomberg Kelly Zou Analyst (852) Turnover(HK$m, rhs) kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk Price(HK$) Maintain our Hold rating on CRG: We cut our TP from HK$6.39 to HK$6.29. Our TP is based on a target PBR multiple of 0.72x vs. our previous target PBR multiple of 0.86x. Y/E Dec E 2017E 2018E Turnover (RMB m) 540, , , , , ,650 Recurring net profit (RMB m) 9,374 10,262 11,675 11,808 13,619 14,775 Net margin (%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% Recurring EPS (RMB) % change 26.8% 9.5% 10.0% -2.5% 15.3% 8.5% PER(x) PBR(x) EV/EBITDA(x) Source: Company data, CGIS Research Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 2

3 Key financials CRG (390 HK) P&L statement (RMB m, except for per share amount) FY ended 31 Dec 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17E P&L E 2018E Sales Revenue 264, , , , , ,916 Sales Revenue 590, , , , ,650 COGS -242, , , , , ,495 COGS -541, , , , ,419 Gross profit 21,531 27,155 21,968 27,821 27,447 28,421 Gross profit 48,515 48,686 49,789 55,868 59,230 Selling and distribution costs ,371-1,141-1,419-1,301-1,423 Selling and distribution costs -2,334-2,342-2,560-2,724-2,854 Administrative expenses -11,495-16,295-11,907-16,190-13,240-15,046 Administrative expenses -26,905-27,790-28,097-28,286-29,637 Other gains and losses , ,114-1, Other gains and losses 973 1,387 2,485-1,800-1,800 Total EBIT 8,508 11,433 9,291 12,326 11,588 11,470 Total EBIT 20,249 19,941 21,617 23,058 24,939 Depreciation & Amortisation 3,501 4,312 3,920 4,841 4,930 4,930 Depreciation & Amortisation 6,971 7,813 8,761 9,860 10,424 EBITDA 12,009 15,745 13,211 17,167 16,518 16,400 EBITDA 27,220 27,754 30,378 32,918 35,362 Net finance costs -1,906-1,266-1,606-1,971-1,056-2,009 Net finance costs -4,275-3,172-3,577-3,065-3,326 Profits from associates and JCEs Profits from associates and JCEs Pre-Tax Profit 6,665 10,352 7,804 10,968 10,844 9,918 Pre-Tax Profit 16,233 17,017 18,772 20,762 22,419 Tax Expense -2,260-2,971-2,410-3,659-3,295-2,934 Tax Expense -5,557-5,231-6,069-6,229-6,726 Net Profit After Tax 4,405 7,381 5,394 7,309 7,549 6,984 Net Profit After Tax 10,676 11,786 12,703 14,533 15,693 Minority Interest Minority Interest Perpetual notes Perpetual notes Reported Earnings (attributable) 4,577 7,098 5,116 6,692 7,082 6,537 Reported Earnings (attributable) 10,262 11,675 11,808 13,619 14,775 Adjusted Earnings 4,577 7,098 5,116 6,692 7,082 6,537 Adjusted Earnings 10,262 11,675 11,808 13,619 14,775 EPS (rep) EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS (adj) DPS DPS % YoY growth % YoY growth Revenue -1.1% 3.9% 1.5% 8.6% 11.2% 2.9% Revenue 9.2% 1.7% 5.5% 6.4% 4.8% Gross profit 7.0% -4.4% 2.0% 2.5% 24.9% 2.2% Gross profit 20.3% 0.4% 2.3% 12.2% 6.0% EBIT 2.1% -4.1% 9.2% 7.8% 24.7% -6.9% EBIT 9.6% -1.5% 8.4% 6.7% 8.2% Net profit 12.7% 14.5% 11.8% -5.7% 38.4% -2.3% Net profit 9.5% 13.8% 1.1% 15.3% 8.5% Margins and ratios Margins and ratios Gross profit margin 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.6% 9.2% 7.6% Gross profit margin 8.2% 8.1% 7.9% 8.3% 8.4% EBITDA Margin 4.5% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 5.5% 4.4% EBITDA Margin 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% EBIT Margin 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 3.1% EBIT Margin 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% Net Profit Margin 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 1.7% Net Profit Margin 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% Source: Company data, CGIS Research Revenue breakdown (Rmb m) E 2018E Construction 456, , , , , ,487 Design 9,180 10,265 10,711 12,312 14,159 15,575 Machinery 13,711 14,519 15,782 17,063 19,622 21,585 Real estate 27,566 29,255 29,260 32,976 29,019 30,470 Other business 68,958 54,963 40,044 42,671 53,339 58,673 Elimination -35,293-36,858-40,062-31,389-35,446-37,139 Total 540, , , , , ,650 % of total Construction 84% 88% 91% 88% 88% 87% Design 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Machinery 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% Real estate 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% Other business 13% 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% Elimination -7% -6% -7% -5% -5% -5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % YoY chg Construction 15.0% 13.5% 5.1% 2.8% 6.0% 4.0% Design 1.2% 11.8% 4.3% 14.9% 15.0% 10.0% Machinery 19.6% 5.9% 8.7% 8.1% 15.0% 10.0% Real estate 36.6% 6.1% 0.0% 12.7% -12.0% 5.0% Other business 22.2% -20.3% -27.1% 6.6% 25.0% 10.0% Elimination 24.2% 4.4% 8.7% -21.6% 12.9% 4.8% Total 16.1% 9.2% 1.7% 5.5% 6.4% 4.8% Source: Company data, CGIS Research 3

4 Key financials CRG (390 HK) Balance sheet, cash flow statements and key ratios (RMB m, except for per share amount) Balance sheet E 2018E Cash flow statement E 2018E Cash 68,679 93, , , ,917 EBITDA 27,220 27,754 30,378 32,918 35,362 Restricted cash 8,675 7,414 9,254 9,254 9,254 Net Interest Paid -9,847-8,589-6,932-3,065-3,326 Trade and other receivables 219, , , , ,994 Tax Paid -4,884-5,701-5,763-6,229-6,726 Inventories 139, , , , ,594 Change in Working Cap -5,447 5,835 27,212-5,066-7,433 Amounts due from contract customers 102, , , , ,900 Others 2,558 2,669 2, Available-for-sale financial assets 1,733 3,886 1,210 1,210 1,210 Operating Cash Flow 9,600 21,968 47,563 18,559 17,877 Held-for-trading financial assets Other receivables 4,130 6,620 9,650 10,776 11,290 Acquisitions -8,221-11,245-13,929-6,000-7,000 Tax recoverable 701 1, Capex -9,689-14,899-14,802-16,177-16,106 Lease prepayments Asset Sales 3,605 7,903 11, Total current assets 545, , , , ,423 Others 471 1,037-1, Investing Cashflow -13,834-17,204-18,976-22,177-23,106 Long-term equity investment 6,390 7,889 11,482 18,251 26,058 Investment properties 2,688 3,722 4,547 4,337 4,138 PPE, net 48,898 53,045 56,207 59,966 63,151 Dividend (ordinary) -1,406-1,951-2,674-2,711-3,425 Other intangible assets 34,621 37,547 36,821 37,158 37,486 Equity Raised 2,982 20, Mining assets 5,228 5,454 4,664 4,640 4,617 Debt Movements -5,178 1,130-4,497 7,791 10,279 Goodwill Others Lease prepayments 8,795 9,290 11,986 14,393 16,739 Financing Cashflow -2,718 19,665-7,340 5,080 6,854 Deferred tax assets 4,281 4,367 5,258 5,258 5,258 Trade receivables 8,135 7,137 5,209 10,102 10,585 Exchange difference Available-for-sale financial assets 8,787 8,351 12,896 12,896 12,896 Net Chg in Cash/debt -6,979 24,625 21,526 1,462 1,625 Other loans and receivables 8,100 8,813 6,976 7,424 7,762 Other non-current assets 601 1,460 2,323 2,323 2,323 FCF -4,234 4,764 28,587-3,618-5,229 Total non-current assets 137, , , , , E 2018E Total assets 682, , , , ,263 Valuation PE(x) Trade and bill payable 355, , , , ,686 EPS growth (%) Short term Debt 89,259 84,209 80,017 83,635 88,408 Yield(%) Amounts due to contract customers 20,957 14,857 12,952 13,783 14,442 PEG(%) Obligations under finance leases 756 1, EV/EBITDA(x) Tax payable 3,861 4,065 5,129 5,129 5,129 PB(x) Defined benefit obligations Held-for-sales financial liabilities Provision Operational Total current liabilities 471, , , , ,751 Revenue growth(%) EBIT margin(%) Long Term Debt 93,655 96,213 92,308 96, ,988 Net profit margin(%) Deferred tax liabilities 1, Provision Days receivables Long-term payables Days payables Defined benefit obligations 3,972 3,779 3,453 3,453 3,453 Days inventories Deferred income 1,382 1,537 1,140 1,140 1,140 Obligations under finance leases 1, Current ratio((x) Total non-current liabilities 102, ,820 98, , ,426 Quick ratio(x) Asset/equity(x) Total liabilities 573, , , , ,177 Net debt/equity(%) EBITDA interest coverage(x) Shareholders Fund 95, , , , ,389 ROE(%) Perpetual notes 3,080 12,123 12,038 12,739 13,440 Minority Interest 10,344 8,815 8,827 9,040 9,258 Total S/H Equity 108, , , , ,087 Total Liab & S/H Fund 682, , , , ,263 Source: Company data, CGIS Research estimates 4

5 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Figure 4: Earnings estimates: CGIS new vs. CGIS old and consensus estimates (Rmb m, except for EPS) 2017E Sales EBIT EBITDA Net profit EPS Adj EPS GAAP CGIS old 658,804 22,663 32,521 12, CGIS new 673,469 23,058 32,918 13, Consensus 689,586 24,113 33,424 14, Diff% CGIS new vs. consensus -2.3% -4.4% -1.5% -5.8% -6.0% -5.5% CGIS new vs. old 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 2018E Sales EBIT EBITDA Net profit EPS Adj EPS GAAP CGIS 695,679 24,373 34,790 13, CGIS 705,650 24,939 35,362 14, Consensus 749,180 26,393 36,693 16, Diff% CGIS new vs. consensus -5.8% -5.5% -3.6% -8.6% -8.6% -8.3% CGIS new vs. old 1.4% 2.3% 1.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research Figure 5: Target price-book multiple calculation Assumptions Equity beta (b) 1.2 Long-term growth rate (g) 2.0% Risk-free rate (Rf) 4.0% HKDRMB 0.82 Equity risk premium (Rm-Rf) 7.0% Current share price (HK$) 6.15 Cost of equity (Re=Rf+b(Rm-Rf)) 12.4% Calculating TP Sustainable ROE 9.5% ROE-g 7.5% COE-g 10.4% Fair value P/B multiple (x) 0.72 (ROE-g)/(COE-g) BVPS (RMB) 7.17 Target share price (HK$) 6.29 % upside to current price 2.3% Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CGIS Research Figure 6: CRG H-share 12-mth forward PBR mth forward PBR Average +1 Std -1 Std Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CGIS Research 5 Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates

6 Figure 7: CRG-H share performance since January % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Figure 8: CRG A/H premium (discount) band 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% CRG Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research HSI Index A/H premium (discount) Average +1 Stedev -1 Stdev Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 6

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