Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China. Ltd [2318.HK] 1H15 net profit surged 62% YoY; Valuation at low-end of the range. Maintain BUY Ping An repo

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1 中国平安 [2318.HK] 2015 上半年净利润同比上升 62%; 估值处于区间低端 ; 维持买入评级中国平安 2015 上半年净利润同比增长 62% 到 349 亿元人民币, 略高于我们此前对全年的预测 (55.1%), 同时大幅高于市场预期 (35%), 主要是由于集团的投资收益大幅增长 204% 然而, 市场对强劲的业绩应不会感到意外, 因为集团在数周前发布了盈利预喜对于 2015 下半年, 由于我们预期股市将区间震荡, 所以我们将 2015/2016 年投资回报预测从 1, 亿 /1, 亿元人民币下调到 1, 亿 /1, 亿元人民币另外我们将目标价从 75 港元下调至 66.6 港元 ( 相当于股份拆细前的从 150 港元下调至港元 ) 股份目前的估值吸引, 股价 / 内涵值比率处于历史低点附近的约 1 倍维持买入评级投资亮点 : 上半年主要业务表现良好 : 集团的股东应占溢利同比增长 62% 期内利润录得高增长主要是由于投资收入强劲, 从亿元人民币激增至亿元人民币 ( 同比增长 204%), 主要受助于上半年股市和债市向好保险业务方面, 净保费同比增长 20%, 从 1, 亿元人民币升至 1, 亿元人民币平安银行仍然是其中一家净利润增长最快的银行之一 ( 增长 15%), 其息差上升至 2.71%, 主要由于生息资产的增长相对较高 ( 贷存比从 66.8% 提高到 71.8%), 不良贷款率提高到 1.32%, 但仍远低于行业的平均水平 1.5% 其他业务在上半年的表现亦良好, 证券业务贡献净利润亿元人民币, 同比增长 317%, 而信托的净利润则同比增长 33.7% 集团的互联网金融用户在期内上升至 5,745 万名 ( 增长 98%) 中国保险业买入收盘价 : 39.6 港元 (2015 年 8 月 20 日 ) 目标价 : 66.6 港元 (+68%) 股价表现 2015 年 8 月 21 日估值吸引, 股市疲软带来的负面影响不应被过度放大 : 由于预期 A 股市场 2015 下半年很可能维持区间震荡, 我们将中国平安 2015/2016 的投资收益全年预测从 1, 亿人民币 /1, 亿人民币到下调至 1, 亿人民币 /1, 亿人民币, 而净利润预测则从亿人民币 / 亿人民币下调至亿人民币 / 亿人民币同时我们考虑到, 在大盘调整后, 整体行业的估值下跌, 我们将寿险业务的目标股价 / 内涵值比率降低 10%, 同时把财险业务的目标市净率降低 10%, 并据此小幅调整了目标价由于我们预期互联网金融的新条例将减慢集团的互联网金融业务增长, 我们也调低了集团其他业务的目标市净率从 2 倍下调至 1.8 倍在作出上述的调整后, 我们得出的最新目标价为 68.8 港元自 7 月份至今, 股价大幅向下调整了 29%, 主要是由于市场忧虑大盘疲弱带来的潜在负面影响我们认为, 该忧虑不应被过份放大, 因为债券价值在 2015 下半年上升将防止投资收益率下跌我们预期利率将保持下降趋势, 因为目前还没有看到实体经济有明显复苏此外, 目前的通胀率和 PPI 仍高于政府的目标, 这使央行有空间继续保持目前相对宽松的货币政策中国平安目前的 2015 年股价 / 内涵值比率为 1.0 倍,2015 年市盈率为 10.3 倍,2015 年市净率为 1.6 倍, 接近 2011 年以来的最低水平维持买入评级中国平安将于今天中午 12:00 至下午 1:30 举行中期业绩分析师会议, 地点为香港金钟道 88 号太古广场 JW 万豪酒店香港 3 楼 5-6 号厅市值亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 PWC 自由流通量 63.4% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 4.20 亿美元主要股东深圳市投资控股有限公司 (5.27%) 刘一鸣分析员图 1: 主要财务指标 Investment 投资收益率 (%) Yield (%) Group 集团偿付能力充足率 Solvency (%) Margin Ratio (%) ROE 净资产收益率 (%)(%) ROA 资产收益率 (%) (%) Total 总收入 ( Revenue 百万元人民币 )(RMBm) 339, , , , ,128 Net 净利润 Profit ( 百万元人民币 (RMBm) ) 20,050 28,154 39,279 56,838 73,666 Net 净利润增长 Profit (%) Growth (%) -11.2% 40.4% 39.5% 44.7% 29.6% Investment 投资收益率 (%) yield (%) 股息收益率 (%) Dividend Yield (%) 内含价值 ( 百万元人民币 ) Embedded value (RMBm) 285, , , , ,870 股价 / 内涵值比率 P/EV (x) 市盈率 ( 倍 ) P/E (x) 市净率 ( 倍 ) P/B (x) 每股盈利 ( 人民币元 ) EPS (RMB) 来源 : 公司, 中国银河国际研究部 (852) louisliu@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China. Ltd [2318.HK] 1H15 net profit surged 62% YoY; Valuation at low-end of the range. Maintain BUY Ping An reported its net profit grow by 62% year-on-year (YoY) in 1H15 to RMB34.9bn. The number was slightly higher than our previous full year forecast (55.1%) but much higher than market consensus (35%) mainly due to the high growth from investment income (up by 204%). However, the strong results should not be surprising because the company issued a positive profit alert several weeks ago. For 2H2015, as we believe the market will more likely be range bound, we reduce our estimates on investment return for 2015E/2016E from RMB130,247m/RMB174,886m to RMB110,710m/RMB145,738m. We also adjust our target price from HK$75 to HK$66.6 (= HK$150 to HK$137.6 pre-share split). Current valuation is attractive as it trades around historical low at around 1x P/EV. Maintain BUY. Investment Highlights: Major segments performed well in first half: Net profit of the group attributable to shareholders grew by 62% YoY, The high net profit growth was mainly due to the high investment income which surged from RMB27,387m to RMB83,174m (up by 204%) because of the bullish equity and bond market during the first half. For insurance business, net premium grew by 20% YoY from RMB165,520m to RMB199,364m. Ping An Bank continued to maintain one of the highest growth in terms of net profits (15%) among banks. Its interest margin increased to 2.71% because of relatively higher growth in interest bearing assets (LDR increased from 66.8% to 71.8%) and NPL ratio increased to 1.32% but still much lower than the sector average of 1.5%. Other business also performed well in the first half. Securities business contributed RMB1,606m net profit, up 317% YoY while net profit from trust increased by 33.7%. The number of Ping An internet finance users in first half of the year reached 57.45m (up by 98%). China Insurance Sector BUY Close: HK$39.6 (Aug 20, 2015) Target Price: HK$66.6 (+68%) Share Price Performance August 21, 2015 Valuation is attractive, concern about negative impact from weak equity market performance should not be overstated: As the A-share market is likely to be range bound in 2H2015, we lower our full-year projection on Ping An s investment income from RMB130,247m/RMB174,886m to RMB110,710m/RMB145,738m, and net profit forecasts are reduced to RMB 56,838m/73,666m from RMB 60,913m/RMB81,593m in 2015E/2016E. Also after considering lower valuation of the sector after market correction, we slightly adjust target price based on a 10% lower target P/EV for life insurance business and 10% lower target P/B for P&C insurance. As we expect the new coming regulations on internet finance will slightly slow down the growth of Ping An s internet finance business, we also lower target P/B for Ping An s other business from 2x to 1.8x. After all adjustments above, we set a new target price of HK$66.6. The share price dropped 29% since the sharp correction in July mainly due to market concern about the potential negative impact caused by from weak equity market performance. We believe the concern should not be overstated and the investment yield will not drop sharply in 2H2015 because of the increasing bonds value. We expect the interest rate will maintain downward trend as we have not seen a clear rebound of the real economy. Besides, the current inflation rate and PPI are still lower than the government s target, which provides space for PBOC to keep current relatively accommodative monetary policy. Ping An is currently trading at 1.0x 2015E P/EV, 10.3x 2015E P/E, 1.6x 2015E P/B, near the lowest level since Maintain BUY. Ping An will hold 2015 interim results announcement analyst luncheon at Salon 5-6, Level 3, JW Marriott Hotel Hong Kong, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong between 12:00 noon to 1:30 pm today. Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor Louis Liu Analyst (852) US$96,891m 18,280m PWC Free Float 63.4% 52W range 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholding HK$ US$420m Shenzhen Investment Holdings Co., LTD (5.27%) Figure 1: Key Financials Investment Yield (%) Group Solvency Margin Ratio (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Total Revenue (RMBm) 339, , , , ,128 Net Profit (RMBm) 20,050 28,154 39,279 56,838 73,666 Net Profit Growth (%) -11.2% 40.4% 39.5% 44.7% 29.6% Investment yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) Embedded value (RMBm) 285, , , , ,870 P/EV (x) P/E (x) P/B (x) EPS (RMB) louisliu@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 2

3 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Figure 2: Valuation Table Type of business Methodology Valuation Life Insurance (RMB) 1.53x 2015E P/EV 25.8 P&C Insurance (RMB) 1.8x 2015E P/B 3.9 Banking (RMB) 1.2x 2015E P/B 9.5 Others(securties, trust, corporate, internet business and etc.) (RMB) 1.8x 2015E P/B 15.8 Sum (RMB): 55.0 Sum (HKD): 66.6 Figure 3: P/EV Rolling forward PEV (x) Average +1 Standard deviation -1 Standard deviation 3

4 Figure 4: 1H Result RMB m H H H YoY (%) Gross written premiums and policy fees 144, , ,275 18% Less: Premiums ceded to reinsurers (9,441) (13,875) (12,911) -7% Net written premiums and policy fees 135, , ,364 20% Change in unearned premium reserves (3,989) (6,156) (7,502) 22% Net earned premiums 131, , ,862 20% Reinsurance commission income 2,560 4,367 3,888-11% Interest income from banking operations 43,354 57,191 66,171 16% Fees and commission income from noninsurance operations 6,628 11,194 20,431 83% Investment income 27,448 27,387 83, % Share of profits and losses of associates and jointly controlled entities (21) (208) (230) 11% Other income 4,808 7,050 11,003 56% Total Income 215, , ,299 41% Claims and policyholders' benefits (107,872) (124,009) (171,588) 38% Commission expenses on insurance operations (12,875) (17,361) (25,810) 49% Interest expenses on banking operations (23,914) (31,758) (34,317) 8% Fees and commission expenses on noninsurance operations (745) (1,438) (1,903) 32% Loan loss provisions, net of reversals (2,571) (5,301) (12,634) 138% Foreign exchange gains/(losses) (105) 97 (440) -554% General and administrative expenses (35,675) (46,696) (61,204) 31% Finance costs (1,355) (2,833) (2,416) -15% Other expenses (3,394) (4,425) (6,444) 46% Total expenses (188,506) (233,724) (316,756) 36% Profit before tax 27,301 32,621 59,543 83% Income tax (5,580) (6,757) (19,632) 191% Profit for the period 21,721 25,864 39,911 54% Attributable to: - Owners of the parent 17,910 21,362 34,649 62% - Non-controlling interests 3,861 4,502 5,262 17% 4

5 Figure 5: Income Statement: RMB m Gross written premiums and policy fees 233, , , , ,851 Less: Premiums ceded to reinsurers (12,851) (21,034) (24,660) (31,184) (35,656) Net written premiums and policy fees 221, , , , ,195 Change in unearned premium reserves (7,945) (7,818) (12,984) (11,736) (11,310) Net earned premiums 213, , , , ,885 Reinsurance commission income 4,529 6,584 7,963 9,800 11,165 Interest income from banking operations 74,852 93, , , ,114 Fees and commission income from noninsurance operations 10,891 15,815 25,643 43,176 57,446 Investment income 27,378 55,583 71, , ,738 Share of profits and losses of associates and jointly controlled entities (46) (264) (62) Other income 8,445 10,013 16,737 26,942 31,682 Total Income 339, , , , ,128 Claims and policyholders' benefits (165,994) (198,002) (228,326) (283,523) (332,711) Commission expenses on insurance operations (20,437) (25,390) (34,941) (36,535) (46,502) Interest expenses on banking operations (40,351) (50,861) (64,527) (76,570) (71,767) Fees and commission expenses on noninsurance operations (1,455) (1,979) (3,230) (4,684) (6,118) Loan loss provisions, net of reversals (3,048) (6,709) (14,614) (21,405) (26,178) Foreign exchange gains/(losses) 255 (381) (191) (28) (87) General and administrative expenses (68,477) (81,753) (102,565) (131,153) (152,402) Finance costs (1,758) (3,202) (6,974) (5,153) (6,150) Other expenses (5,590) (6,720) (12,299) (16,741) (19,562) Total expenses (306,855) (374,997) (467,667) (575,792) (661,476) Profit before tax 32,338 46,224 62,353 90, ,652 Income tax (5,588) (10,210) (14,423) (19,299) (23,816) Profit for the period 26,750 36,014 47,930 71,047 89,836 Attributable to: - Owners of the parent 20,050 28,154 39,279 56,838 73,666 - Non-controlling interests 6,700 7,860 8,651 14,209 16,171 5

6 Figure 6: Balance Sheet: Assets Cash and amounts due from banks and other financial institutions 451, , , , ,431 Balances with the Central Bank and statutory deposits 227, , , , ,244 Fixed maturity investments 1,109,248 1,454,637 1,608,736 2,071,433 2,431,386 Equity investments 126, , , , ,453 Loans and advances to customers 709, ,770 1,053,882 1,404,834 1,701,629 Accounts receivable 8,979 8,033 14,983 11,075 12,129 Investments in associates and jointly controlled entities 9,960 12,081 12,898 13,030 13,580 Other assets 202, , , , ,986 Total assets 2,844,266 3,360,312 4,005,911 5,011,770 5,944,838 Liabilities Due to banks and other financial institutions 420, , , , ,850 Assets sold under agreements to repurchase 154, ,642 99, , ,456 Customer deposits and payables to brokerage customers 986,936 1,191,515 1,510,448 1,605,391 1,868,076 Accounts payable 3,615 2,618 2,721 2,466 2,501 Insurance payables 38,293 54,359 65, , ,938 Insurance contract liabilities 882,593 1,030,212 1,206,816 1,545,531 1,860,870 Investment contract liabilities for policyholders 34,669 38,353 38,330 48,085 54,732 Policyholder dividend payable 21,681 25,232 28,673 36,334 43,601 Bonds payable 38,793 56,756 88,119 90, ,448 Other liabilities 52,745 90, , , ,294 Total liabilities 2,634,617 3,120,607 3,652,095 4,551,973 5,388,766 Equity Share capital 7,916 7,916 8,892 18,280 18,280 Reserves and retained profits 151, , , , ,750 Equity attributable to owners of the parent 159, , , , ,030 Non-controlling interests 50,032 56,996 64,252 83, ,042 Total equity 209, , , , ,072 6

7 Figure 7: Key Financials Group Total income (RMBm) 339, , , , ,128 Net profit (RMBm) 20,050 28,154 39,279 56,838 73,666 Investment yield (%) Embedded value (RMBm) 285, , , , ,870 Group solvency margin ratio (%) Life Insurance Business Written premiums 199, , , , ,931 Net profit 6,457 12,219 15,689 19,766 26,576 Net investment yield % 5.5% 5.5% Embedded value 177, , , , ,834 Solvency margin ratio Property and Casualty Insurance Business Premium income 99, , , , ,559 Net profit 4,648 5,856 8,807 10,392 12,263 Net investment yield Total investment yield Combined ratio Solvency margin ratio Banking Business Net interest income 33,243 40,894 53,046 58,351 64,186 Net profit 13,232 14,904 19,802 23,762 26,852 Net interest margin Cost/income ratio Total deposits 1,021,108 1,217,002 1,533,183 1,644,596 1,726,825 Total loans 720, ,289 1,024,734 1,192,870 1,389,481 CAR NPL Ratio Provision coverage ratio Other Business Trust Business Total income 4,231 4,732 6,538 7,519 8,647 Net profit 1,484 1,962 2,199 2,419 2,661 Securities Business Total income 2,897 2,758 4,026 6,039 6,643 Net profit ,386 1,663 7

8 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (6881.hk) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 1%; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前 30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >20% 沽出持有 : : 股价于个月内将下跌没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环皇后大道中 183 号新纪元广场中远大厦 35 楼室电话 :

914-151014c

914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79