DC Holdings [86.HK] Lower-than-expected 7 results. Still in investment mode. DC Holdings (DCH) 7 results were distorted by non-cash items. Excluding t

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1 神州控股 [86.HK] 7 年业绩低于预期 ; 公司仍处于投资阶段神州控股 7 年业绩被非现金项目所影响若撇除非现金项目的影响, 公司业绩低于我们的预期, 原因是 :a) 营业额增长低于预期 ;b) 其他费用高于预期公司管理层在业绩发布会中指出, 凭借公司的数据资源和能力, 公司正在将业务模式转变至数据技术服务提供商在数据技术应用方面, 公司管理层表示看到医疗农业政府金融和制造等行业具有增长潜力鉴于公司在银行业务领域的领先地位, 神州信息或将较专注于金融科技板块银行业不断增加对数据技术的投资, 将为神州信息带来增长机会我们认为神州控股 / 神州信息是中国投资者熟悉的 IT 公司然而, 尽管管理层提到不需要进一步拨备, 但我们仍认为核数师对神州控股 7 年业绩的保留意见将带来不确定性管理层在 7 年业绩中没有披露更多有关核数师保留意见的信息我们将评级从买入下调至持有, 最新目标价为. 港元 ( 基于倍 8 年市盈率 ) 下调目标价是由于下调了目标市盈率( 从 9 倍降至倍 ) 以及下调核心净利润预测所致投资亮点 7 年业绩亮点 : 神州控股于 7 年录得净亏损. 亿港元, 弱于我们预期的净亏损.7 亿港元若撇除特殊及一次性项目, 公司 7 年净利润为. 亿港元 7 年上半年净亏损. 亿港元 ( 股份形式开支约.8 亿港元, 而理财金融产品的建议拨备约.8 亿港元 ) 若撇除这些一次性项目, 神州控股于 7 年上半年录得净利润约 8, 万港元及于 7 年下半年录得净利润约,8 万港元公司 7 年销售额约.7 亿港元, 同比上升 8.%, 主要是受到新业务营业额同比增长 % 推动, 以及供应链管理业务营业额同比增长 8.% 所致公司 7 年毛利为 6.6 亿港元, 同比增长 6.% 神州信息 7 年营业额同比增长.%, 较 7 年上半年的同比下降有所改善公司于 7 年下半年出现复苏, 但幅度弱于我们预期, 且下半年经营表现逊于 7 年上半年我们认为,7 年业绩低于预期是由于销售及管理费用高于预期由于大多数 IT 服务公司的 7 年下半年业绩强劲, 故神州控股下半年表现转弱的情况令人颇失望尽管经营业绩偏弱, 但主要的负面因素是其核数师对 7 年业绩作出保留意见, 因为公司 6 亿港元的理财产品投资于 7 年已到期偿还但尚未结算, 而审计师未能获得足够的审计证据以评估相关应收款项可回收金额及相关减值拨备是否足够根据神州控股的公告, 公司正在与与对方磋商解决方案, 但并未达成结论公司已对应收款项进行可收回性的评估及已计提减值拨备约.8 亿港元在 7 年业绩会上, 公司管理层提到 7 年上半年所作的拨备已足够, 但是没有提供进一步的细节理财产品是从一家大型国有金融机构的附属公司购买的我们认为, 除非公司增长前景明朗和有更多关于 6 亿元人民币理财产品的细节, 否则投资者或继续对公司抱持观望态度下调盈利预测我们下调 8 年的净利润预测, 并引入 9 年盈利预测我们预计公司将在 8 年实现净利润, 对比 7 年录得净亏损然而, 由于营业额增长放缓和盈利能力下降, 我们将 8 年的盈利预测下调 6.% 若投资理财产品需要额外拨备, 将明显拖累 8 年业绩 8 年月日 TMT 行业软件持有 ( 此前为买入 ) 收盘价 :. 港元 (8 年月 9 日 ) 目标价 :. 港元 (.%) 股价表现 (HK$) (HK$ million) Mar7 May7 Jul7 Sep7 Nov7 Jan8 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 来源 : 彭博市值 9. 亿美元已发行股数 6.67 亿股核数师 Ernst & Young 自由流通量 8.7% 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 6 万美元主要股东广州市城市建设投资集团有限公司 (.%) 郭为 (.%) Key 主要财务指标 Financials ( 百万港元 (in HKDm) ) * 6* 7* 8E* 9E* 收入变动 ( 同比 %) 毛利润毛利润率 (%) 净利润净利润率 (%) 每股收益 ( 基本 ) 变动 ( 同比 %) 每股股息 Revenue,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. 8,88. Change (YoY %) (.) Gross Profit,6.,.7,66.,.8,7. Gross Margin % Net Profit (.).6. Net Margin % 6.. (.).. EPS (Basic).8 (.) (9.)..6 Change (YoY %) (6.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. DPS $. $. $. $. $. 净资产收益率 (%) 股息收益率 (%) 市盈率 ( 倍 ) 市净率 ( 倍 ) 自由现金流收益率 (%) ROE (%) (.).6.6 Dividend Yield (%) PER (x).7 n.a. n.a PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 8.68% -.% -9.%.7% 8.% 资本开支 ( 百万元 ) 每股自由现金流净负债比率 (%) Capex (m) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Free cash flow per share.6 (.) (.).. Net Gearing (%) 布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (8) markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文,CFA 研究部主管 (8) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部, *: 年数据只有第二至第四季数字, - 年数据包括公司的持续经营业务以及计划出售的已终止的硬件分销业务 ;6-7 年的预测仅包括持续经营业务

2 DC Holdings [86.HK] Lower-than-expected 7 results. Still in investment mode. DC Holdings (DCH) 7 results were distorted by non-cash items. Excluding the impact of non-cash items, the results were below our expectations due to: a) slower-than-expected turnover growth, and b) higher-than-expected other expenses. During the 7 results presentation, DCH management highlighted that the Company s business model is evolving toward Data Technology service providers, backed by data resources and capabilities. Regarding the application of Data Technology, DCH management mentioned that the Company sees growth potential in sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, government, finance and manufacturing. DCITS is likely to focus more on the fintech segment, given the Company s leading position in the banking segment. The increasing investment in data technology by the banking sector will offer growth opportunities for DCITS. We share the view that DCH/DCITS are well-recognized IT-related names among Chinese investors. However, we still believe that the auditor s qualified opinion of DCH s 7 results will continue to create uncertainty despite the fact that management mentioned that no further provision was required. No further information regarding the auditor s qualified opinion was disclosed by management during the 7 results presentation. We downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a new target price of HK$. (based on a x 8E PER). The downward revision of our target price is due to the lower target PER multiple used (from 9x to x) and a cut in core net profit forecasts. Investment Highlights 7 results highlights. DCH reported a net loss of HK$m in 7, weaker than our expectation of a net loss of HK$7m for 7. Excluding the impact of exceptional and one-off items, DCH s net profit was HK$.m for 7. DCH reported a net loss of HK$m in H 7 (due to share-based payment expenses of approximately HK$8m and the proposed provision of approximately HK$8m for wealth management financial products). Excluding the effects of these one-off items, DCH would have recorded a net profit of about HK$8m in H 7 and about HK$8m in H 7. DCH s turnover was about HK$,7m in 7, up 8.% YoY, driven mainly by a % YoY increase in turnover in new business and a 8.% YoY increase in turnover of its supply chain management business. DCH s gross profit amounted to HK$,66m in 7, representing YoY growth of 6.%. DCITS s turnover grew.% YoY in 7 which improved from a YoY decline in H 7. DCH did report a turnaround in H 7, but the magnitude was weaker than we expected, and operating performance was weaker in H 7 than in H 7. The weaker-than-expected 7 results, in our view, were due to higher-thanexpected S,G&A expenses. DC Holdings weaker H 7 performance is somewhat disappointing, as most of the other IT services companies reported strong H 7 performance. Despite the weaker operating performance, the major negative surprise was that its auditor issued a qualified opinion on DC Holdings 7 results, as the HK$.6bn investment in wealth management products were due for redemption in 7 but have not been settled, and the auditor was not able to obtain sufficient audit evidence to judge whether the provisions were sufficient. According to DC Holdings announcement, the Company is in discussion with counterparties, but no conclusion has been reached, and DC Holdings provided only HK$8m in P&L A/C. During the 7 results presentation, DCH management mentioned that the provision made in H 7 was sufficient. However, no further details were provided. The wealth management products were purchased from an affiliate of a large, state-owned financial institution. We believe that unless there is clarity on the growth outlook for the Company and the RMB.6bn investment in wealth management products, investors are likely to stay on sidelines regarding DC Holdings. Downward earnings adjustment. We cut our net profit forecasts for 8 and introduce 9E earnings forecasts. We expect DCH to report a net profit in 8 vs. a net loss in 7. However, we cut our earnings for 8 by 6.% due to slower turnover growth and lower profitability. Any extra provisions required for the investment in wealth management products will drag down the 8 results substantially. Key Financials (in HKDm) * 6* 7* 8E* 9E* Revenue,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. 8,88. Change (YoY %) (.) Gross Profit,6.,.7,66.,.8,7. Gross Margin % Net Profit (.).6. Net Margin % 6.. (.).. EPS (Basic).8 (.) (9.)..6 Change (YoY %) (6.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. DPS $. $. $. $. $. ROE (%) (.).6.6 Dividend Yield (%) PER (x).7 n.a. n.a PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 8.68% -.% -9.%.7% 8.% Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (8) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (8) TMT Sector Software HOLD (downgrade from BUY) Close: HK$. (Mar 9, 8) Target Price: HK$. (.%) Share Price Performance (HK$) 7 6 Source: Bloomberg. Market Cap cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$9m Shares Outstanding,667m Auditor Ernst & Young Free Float 8.7% W range M average daily T/O Major Shareholding April, 8 Mar7 May7 Jul7 Sep7 Nov7 Jan8 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 8 6 HK$ US$.6m GZ Construction Group (.%) Mr. Guo Wei (.%) Capex (m) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Free cash flow per share.6 (.) (.).. Net Gearing (%) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research, *: Only -Q data available for ; - data include the company s continuing operations as well as discontinuing hardware distribution business which was planned to be sold; forecasts for 6-7 only include its continuing operations.

3 Figure : Key assumptions for DCH 6 7 8F 9F Turnover (HKD m) Distribution 7,66.8 6,. n.a n.a n.a. n.a. Supply chain,.,6.6,99.,8.,.9,88.8,. Systems,68. 7,68. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services 9,. 7,6.7 8,.8 8,6. 9,8.6 9,.,9. Internet finance Smart City Operation Total 7,99.,6.8,6.,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. YoY Change (%) Distribution (.) (.) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain (.) 7.9 (7.) Systems (.) (.) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services (8.9) Internet finance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.. Smart City Operation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.. Total (8.9) (76.7) (.) Gross margin (%) Distribution... n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain Systems n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services Internet finance Smart City Operation Net margin (%) (.).. Cost (HKD m) Cost of Sales (8,88.9) (,) (8,) (9,78) (,8) (,8) (,8) S,G&A (,.) (,78.9) (,89.) (,7.) (,6.) (,9.7) (,.8) Financial Expenses (78.7) (6.8) (7.7) (97.) (.) (7.) (96.) YoY Change (%) Cost of Sales (78.9) (8.).8 n.a. 6.. R&D (.) 7.8. n.a. (.). Financial Expenses (66.). 67. n.a CAPEX (HKD m) Net Gearing (%) Turnover breakdown of DCITS (DC's IT Services segment) (HKD m) 7,. 9,8.6 9,.,69.,9.9,6. System integration,99.7,86.,7.,88.,9.7,8.6 Technology consultation,9.8,7.9,.,.,6.,. Software development 88.,8.,9.,7.8,9.,99. Financial IT Agricultural informatization Turnover breakdown of Supply Chain Management (HKD m) E-commerce ,.7,87.,9.7,8.7 Logistic 8.6,.9,8.8,67.,988.,86. Maintanence Source: Company, CGIS Research

4 Figure : Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Cash Flow Statement (RMBm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Revenue,6,,7 6,6 8,88 Net Income Growth yoy% (.%).% 8.%.6%.% Depreciation & Amort. 7 Gross Profit,6,,66,,7 Change in Working Capital, () () () Growth yoy% 9.7%.% 6.%.%.9% Cash from Ops., Selling General & Admin Exp. (,89) (,7) (,6) (,9) (,) Capital Expenditure () () () () () Others Operating Expenses/Items Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income 6 () (96) 7 Change in Investing Acitivities (,99),9 77 () (,) Growth yoy% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a..% Cash from Investing (,9),99 7 () (,) Interest Expense (7.7) (97.) (.) (7.) (96.) Net increase in bank borrowings Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) Common Dividends Paid () (,9) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest Other Financing Activities (,9) 778 (78) 98 7 Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing (,) (,6) (78) 98 7 Income Tax Expense (7) (9) () () () Minority Int. in Earnings (6) (9) () () (6) Net Change in Cash (,6) () 7,6 7 Net Income () Growth yoy% (.6%) (.%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Balance Sheet (RMBm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Ratios FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* ASSETS Profitability Cash And Equivalents,79,698,78,98,97 Return on Assets %.9%.% (.6%).%.% Receivables,8,8 7,9 8,99 8,99 Return on Capital %.%.6% (.8%).%.6% Inventory 8 788,,, Return on Equity % 7.6%.9% (.%).6%.6% Other Current Assets 9,76,77, Total Current Assets 9,,9,6 6,9 6,66 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 79,88,76,, Gross Margin %.8%.%.% 9.% 9.6% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 7.8%.%.% 7.% 7.% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin %.% (.%) (.%).%.7% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin %.7%.6% (.6%).%.% Other Long-Term Assets 7,78 9,8,,88,88 Net Income Margin % 6.%.% (.%).%.% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 8,,668,,8,8 Total Asset Turnover.x.x.x.x.6x Total Assets 7,9,76 7,96,6,69 Fixed Asset Turnover.x.x.9x.x.x Accounts Receivable Turnover.x.x.x.x.x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover.x.x.8x.8x.x Accounts Payable,6,96 6,778 8, 8, Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings,,99,97 6,6 6,6 Current Ratio.x.x.x.x.x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.x.6x.7x.8x.8x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities, Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities,87,9,,, Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt,77,66,8,8,8 Net Debt to Equity % 69% % % % Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr Other Non-Current Liabilities Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 6,9,, 8, 8, Total Revenue (.%).% 8.%.6%.% Common Stock Net Income (.6%) (.%) ######## (8.%).% Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio %.% ######## %.%.% Retained Earnings 8,76 7, 8,9 9,7 9, Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest,7.9,.,68.,96.6,96.6 Total Equity,,7,79,68,9 Total Liabilities And Equity 7,9,76 7,96,6,69 Sources: Company, CGIS Research*: Only -Q data available for ; - data include the company s continuing operations as well as

5 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (688.HK; 688.CH) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 %; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 () 在研究报告发出前日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;() 在研究报告发出后个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;() 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;() 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于个月内将上升 >% 沽出持有 : : 股价于个月内将下跌没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM9) 香港上环干诺道中号永安中心楼电话 :

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79