China Medical System [867.HK] Moderate re-rating at this stage; waiting for a major catalyst for upgrading. We appreciate the Company s good execution

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黑害苗傅
5 years ago
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1 康哲药业 [867.HK] 暂微调预测数字 ; 上调评级还看催化剂康哲药业执行力佳,2017 年业绩强劲 ( 净利润增长 22%), 符合我们及市场预期核心产品的增长依然理想 :(1) 预期波依定未来几年的收入增长约 10%;(2) 优思弗及新活素的收入预期增长逾 20%; 及 (3) 黛力新预期录得单位数字增长基于此, 我们略调整 2018/19 年的预测数字估值方面, 我们认为目前可关注两点 :(1) 2017 年是公司向 AstraZeneca 波依定后首个全年, 期内波依定收入同比增长约 8%, 而该药于 AstraZeneca 管理期间收入录得下跌趋势, 康哲药业向市场证明普心宁的前景 ;(2) 近期医药行业有结构性的估值重估因此, 我们认为康哲药业的估值有轻微上升空间我们把目标价由原来的港元 ( 相当于 2018 年 18 倍市盈率 ) 上调 15% 至 20.1 港元 ( 相当于 2018 年 21 倍市盈率 ; 目标价已考虑人民币升值因素 ), 暂时维持持有评级若 (1) Traumakine ( 用于治疗急性呼吸窘迫综合症 ) 的 D90 临床试验在病人资料揭盲上带来催化剂 ( 即 2018 年 4 月 ); 或 (2) 公司引入新的强劲产品, 我们将大幅上调公司估值及其盈利预测投资亮点预期波依定未来增长稳定, 为公司业绩带来可见性 : 波依定于 AstraZeneca 管理期间, 终端收入持续下跌, 康哲药业接手后成功止住跌势, 并于 2017 年全年录得约 8% 的同比增长由于公司计划扩大波依定的医院覆盖 ( 目前销售集中于约 1,000 间主要医院, 公司有意把销售扩展至 5,000-6,000 间医院 ), 并分配更多销售人员负责波依定以刺激销售增长, 我们预期波依定在 2018 及 2019 年录得高单位数字至低双位数字增长 Traumakine 或带来无限惊喜 :Traumakine 用于治疗急性呼吸窘迫综合症, 目前全球尚未有任何特定药物治疗有关病症康哲药业向芬兰的 Faron 公司收购其于中国地区的资产公司将于产品成功商业化后, 向 Faron 支付权利金 Traukamine 已在英国完成 I/II 期临床研究, 主要终点指标为给药后 28 天死亡率公司将于 2018 年 4 月公布第 90 天揭盲结果, 若数据表现突出, 最理想的情况是该药将可获豁免进行第三期的临床研究, 而 Traukamine 将于两年内商业化我们视此为公司短期内的超级催化剂 2017 年业绩重点 : 康哲药业 2017 年净利润为亿元人民币, 同比增长 21.7%, 符合我们及市场预期波依定可比收入同比增长约 8%, 与公司早前发布的指引相约, 大致符合我们及市场预期 2017 年下半年, 优思弗及莎尔福维持 20% 以上的增长 ; 黛力新同比增长 4.2%; 新活素维持逾 20% 以上的强劲增长 ( 不考虑两票制的影响 ) 持有 ( 不变 ) 收盘价 : 19.0 港元 (2018 年 3 月 20 日 ) 目标价 : HK$20.1 港元 (+5.8%) 股价表现 2018 年 3 月 21 日中国医药业 (HK$) (HK$ million) Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 市值 US$6024.5m 已发行股数 2,487.2m 核数师 Deloitte 自由流通量 53.3% 52 周交易区间 HK$ 三个月日均成交量 US$10.7m 主要股东林刚 (43.53%) 来源 : 公司, 彭博何霜霖分析员截至 Y/E 12 Dec 月底止年度 31 Turnover 收入 ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) 3,553 4,901 5,349 6,223 7,209 Net 净利润 profit ( 百万元人民币 (RMBm)) 996 1,376 1,675 1,969 2,283 Core 核心净利润 net profit ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m)* ) 997 1,396 1,675 1,969 2,283 Core 核心净利润率 net margin (%) (%) Core 每股核心盈利 EPS (RMB) ( 人民币 ) % 百分比变动 Change PER 市盈率 (x) ( 倍 ) PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) ROE 净资产收益率 (%) (%) EV/EBITDA ( 倍 )(x) * adjusted 经中国银河国际证券研究部调整 by CGIS research 来源 : 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部 (852) harryhe@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 China Medical System [867.HK] Moderate re-rating at this stage; waiting for a major catalyst for upgrading. We appreciate the Company s good execution in delivering solid 2017 results (22% net profit growth), which is in line with our and the Street s expectations. The growth prospects of core products remain intact: 1) ~10% revenue growth expected for Plendil in the next few years; 2) >20% revenue growth expected for Ursofalk and XinHuoSu; and 3) single-digit growth for Deanxit. We therefore just fine tuned our 2018/19 forecast numbers. Regarding its valuation, we think two things are worth noting at this stage: 1) Plendil s outlook is more visible after CMS proved this to the market in 2017, the first full year after acquiring Plendil from Astra- Zeneca, with ~8% YoY top-line growth vs. a downward revenue trend when it was under AstraZeneca; and 2) there has been a structural re-rating of the whole healthcare industry recently. Hence, we think CMS is worth a moderate re-rating. We re-rated CMS by 15%, lifting our Target Price from HK$16.76 (18x 2018E PER) to HK$20.1 (21x 2018E PER; the TP also includes RMB appreciation) and maintain HOLD for now. We will give CMS a significant re-rating and an upward earnings adjustment forecast if either of the following occurs: 1) a possible explosive catalyst from Traumakine s (for acute respiratory distress) patient data unblinding at D90 (i.e. April 2018); or 2) the introduction of new compelling products. Investment thesis Plendil expected to deliver stable growth in the future, providing a more visible outlook: CMS stopped Plendil s revenue downtrend at terminals when it was under AstraZeneca and achieved ~8% growth YoY on an apple-to-apple basis in Going forward, we expect Plendil to deliver high single-digit to low-teen growth in 2018 and 2019, since CMS plans to expand Plendil s hospital coverage (Plendil s current sales focus mainly on ~1,000 key hospitals, and CMS wants to expand this to 5,000-6,000) and has allocated more salespeople to Plendil to boost its growth. Traumakine, a possible super surprise: Traumakine is used for acute respiratory distress, for which there are no specific curing drugs worldwide so far. CMS acquired the Traumakine assets in China from a Finnish company named Faron and will pay a royalty fee once it is successfully commercialized. Currently, Traumakine has completed the I/II clinical trails in the UK with 28-day mortality as the primary end point. The patient data for phase I/II at D90 is about to be unblinded in April If the data is outstanding, the best possibility is that the Phase III trail would be waived and Traumakine could be commercialized within two years. We view this is a possible super catalyst for CMS in the near term results highlights: CMS reported RMB1.675bn in net profit, up 21.7% YoY, in line with our and the Street s expectations. Plendil delivered ~8% YoY revenue growth on an apple-to-apple comparison basis, largely in line with the market and our expectations and also the Company s guidance. Ursofalk and Salofalk continued >20% growth momentum in 2H2017, Deanxit recorded +4.2% YoY growth in 2H2017, and XinHuoSu continued strong growth of >20% in 2H2017, excluding the two-invoice system impact. Y/E Dec 31 Turnover (RMB m) 3,553 4,901 5,349 6,223 7,209 Net profit (RMBm) 996 1,376 1,675 1,969 2,283 Core net profit (RMB m)* 997 1,396 1,675 1,969 2,283 Core net margin (%) Core EPS (RMB) % Change PER (x) PBR (x) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) * adjusted by CGIS research Sources: Company, CGIS Research March 21, 2018 China Healthcare Sector HOLD (unchanged) Close: HK$19.0 (Mar 20, 2018) Target Price: HK$20.1 (+5.8%) Price Performance (HK$) (HK$ million) Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) Market Cap US$6024.5m Shares Outstanding 2,487.2m Auditor Deloitte Free Float 53.3% 52W range HK$ M average daily T/O US$10.7m Major Shareholding Lam Kong (43.53%) Sources: Company, Bloomberg Harry He Analyst (852) harryhe@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 2

3 Figure 1: 2017 revenue breakdown GanFuLe Combizym Parlodel DanShenTong 3% NeoDiKang 2% Bioflor 5% Salofalk 6% Stulln 4% MOVICOL Lamisil 0% 0% Imdur Hirudoid 3% Plendil 26% XinHuoSu 8% Deanxit 19% Ursofalk 19% Source: Company Figure 2: Peer comparison PER(x) PBR(x) ROE(%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company name Ticker Price (HK$) Market cap (HK$m) E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E CHINA MEDICAL SY* , SHANGHAI PHARM-H , SINOPHARM-H , YESTAR HEALTHCAR , PIONEER PHARM ,390 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a CHINA RESOURCES , Simple average Median * CGIS research estimate Source: Bloomberg, CGIS research estimates 3

4 Key financials Balance Sheet P rofit and Loss A s at D ec 31 Year as o f D ec 31 (R M B m) (R M B m) Cash & cash equivalents ,666 2,645 Direct model 2,854 4,264 4,944 5,756 6,681 Inventories Agency model Accounts receivable 1,164 1,682 1,487 1,805 2,055 Others Others R evenue 3,553 4,901 5,349 6,223 7,209 Current assets 2,115 3,551 2,960 4,237 5,565 Cost of goods sold (1,507) (1,989) (1,871) (2,438) (2,835) Property, plant and equipment Gross profit 2,046 2,912 3,478 3,785 4,374 Intangible assets 1,026 2,886 2,720 2,705 2,677 Other gains / (losses) 22 (42) (79) Others 2,931 2,993 3,978 4,015 4,057 Marketing expenses (814) (1,174) (1,382) (1,462) (1,709) Non-current assets 4,283 6,241 7,189 7,253 7,305 Admin expenses (193) (222) (222) (255) (296) Operating profit 1,061 1,474 1,795 2,126 2,433 Total assets 6,398 9,792 10,149 11,490 12,870 Net interest income / (expense) (14) (23) (65) (39) (12) JV, associate and others Accounts payable Pretax income 1,064 1,500 1,808 2,125 2,465 ST borrowings 464 1, Income taxes (68) (123) (138) (164) (190) Others 47 1, Non-controlling interests 1 2 (5) (8) (8) Current liabilities 903 3, Net profit 996 1,376 1,675 1,969 2,283 Non-recurring items (1) (20) (0) 0 0 Long-term debts 0 0 2,040 1,924 1,797 Core net profit 997 1,396 1,675 1,969 2,283 Others EBIT 1,061 1,491 1,805 2,141 2,449 Long-term liabilities ,162 2,050 1,918 EBITDA 1,138 1,667 2,001 2,394 2,720 Total liabilities 1,045 3,524 2,821 2,937 2,886 EPS (RMB) Core EP S (RM B ) Shareholders' equity 5,296 6,209 7,275 8,491 9,914 DPS (RM B) M inority interests Payout 39.7% % 40.0% 40.0% Total equity 5,352 6,268 7,328 8,552 9,983 C ash F lo w Key R atio s Year ended Dec 31 Year to Dec 31 ( R M B m) Gro wth (% Yo Y) Profit before tax 1,064 1,500 1,808 2,125 2,465 Sales Depr & amortization EBIT Change in working cap. (424) (511) 133 (386) (253) EBITDA Income tax paid (107) (49) (160) (160) (195) Core net profit Others (30) Core EPS Operating cash flow 615 1,162 2,072 1,834 2,257 P ro fitability (%) Capex (529) (1,228) (149) (280) (280) Gross margin Change in other assets (323) (305) (206) EBIT margin Investment cash flow (853) (1,533) (354) (256) (248) EBITDA margin Core net profit margin Net change in debt (58) 1, (141) ROA Others 278 (527) (1,838) (800) (889) ROE Financing cash flow (1,345) (767) (1,030) Balance sheet ratios Current ratio (X) Net change in cash (18) Quick ratio (X) Cash Beg ,666 Cash ratio (X) Effect of foreign exchange rate changes Trade & bill receivables days Cash End ,666 2,645 Trade & bill payable days Inventory turnover days Total debt to equity ratio (%) Net debt / (cash) to equity (%) (0.8) 18.2 (10.9) (17.1) (24.7) Source: CGIS Research estimates 4

5 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (6881.HK; CH) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 ; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前 30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >20% 沽出 : 股价于 12 个月内将下跌 >20% 持有 : 没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环干诺道中 111 号永安中心 20 楼电话 :

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79