China Medical System [867.HK] CMS s 1H216 results are in line with both our forecast and market consensus. Total revenue grew by 29.9% YoY to RMB2,177

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1 康哲药业 [867.HK] 216 上半年业绩符合预期 ; 增长前景仍然不变 ; 维持买入评级 216 年 8 月 24 日康哲药业的 216 上半年业绩符合我们的预测和市场预期一致总收入同比增长 29.9% 至中国护理行业亿元人民币核心净利润同比增长 32.1% 至 6.54 亿元人民币 ( 相当于我们对 216 年全年预测的 47.9%, 对比 215 上半年占全年的 49.6%) 虽然业绩符合预期, 但值得注意的是公司的一些现有产品的增长放缓黛力新的销售同比仅增长 4.3% 至 4.71 亿元人民币, 而亿活的收入同比仅增长 4.5% 至 8,16 万元人民币虽然这两个产品的增长放缓, 但在很大程度上被公司 215 上半年推出的新产品的快速增长所抵, 这些新产品包括消诺迪康喜疗妥和米曲菌胰酶片在 216 年 2 月推出的波依定, 录得收入亿元人民币 (215 年收入 : 约 12 亿人民币 ) 波依定的收入被扭曲, 没有反映真实情况, 因为 :(1) 在过渡期内, 阿斯利康代为发货, 将毛利转回到康哲药业, 康哲将收到的毛利确认为收入 ;(2) 该产品仍处于过渡期, 有很多过渡工作在 216 上半年进行为了反映 (1)3 月和 4 月的特殊会计处理, 以及 (2) 黛力新和亿活的销售放缓, 我们将 216/17 年收入预测分别下调 6.9%/ 2.7% 我们将核心净利润预测分别轻微下调 2.3%/ 1.8%, 以反映黛力新和亿活的增长放缓, 该两项产品合计占公司 216 上半年总收入 25.4% 总体而言, 康哲药业的增长故事维持完好, 我们将基准年推移至 217 年 (217 年市盈率为 2 倍 ), 将目标价由港元上调至港元维持买入评级投资亮点总体业绩符合预期, 但部分产品增长放缓 : 黛力新只录得 4.3% 同比增长, 因为它在招标中被归类为更高质量层次, 而公司正在等待广东省展开单独招标, 该省约占黛力新销售的 1% 而亿活增长缓慢是由于公司由于招标降价放弃了在福建的招标波依定的数据失真, 需要观望 : 由于波依定的销售失真, 我们需时等待情况变得明朗但是, 我们相信公司可以依靠其营销和推广销售达到约 1 亿元人民币的药物 ( 即黛力新和优思弗 ) 的经验, 以推动波依定的销售及驱动增长增长处于正轨 : 公司的增长进程处于正轨, 我们继续看好该公司的表现我们预计公司每股核心盈利在年的年均复合增长率将达到 24%, 这是由于 :(1) 销售网络强大 ;(2) 管理层表示, 公司从阿斯利康转型至波依定的过程较预期顺利, 目前的销量堪比 215 年同期水平 ;(3) 公司新产品快速发展买入收盘价 : 港元 (216 年 8 月 23 日 ) 目标价 : 港元 (+19.7%) 股价表现 (HK$) Aug15 (HK$ million) Feb16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 市值亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 Deloitte 自由流通量 49.% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 56 万美元主要股东林刚 (46.49%) 来源 : 公司, 彭博何霜霖分析员 (852) Y/E 截至 12 Dec 月底止年度 A 215A 216E 217E 218E Turnover 收入 ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) 2,945 3,553 4,968 6,263 7,374 Core 核心净利润 net profit ( 百万元人民币 (RMB m) ) ,334 1,619 1,918 Core 核心净利润率 net margin (%) (%) Core 每股核心盈利 EPS (RMB) ( 人民币元 ) % 百分比变动 Change PER 市盈率 (x)( 倍 ) PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) 净资产收益率 (%) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA ( 倍 ) EV/EBITDA (x) 来源 Sources: : 公司, Company, 中国银河国际研究部 CGIS Research harryhe@chinastock.com.hk 王志文,CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 China Medical System [867.HK] CMS s 1H216 results are in line with both our forecast and market consensus. Total revenue grew by 29.9% YoY to RMB2,177m. Core net profit grew 32.1% YoY to RMB654m (covering 47.9% of our 216E full year forecast vs. 49.6% in 1H215). Although the results are in line, it is still worth noting that the growth of some of its existing products slowed down. Sales of Deanxit grew only 4.3% YoY to RMB471m, while Bioflor posted revenue growth of merely 4.5% YoY to RMB81.6m. The slowdown in the growth of these two products was largely offset by the rapid growth in sales of products newly introduced in 1H215: NuoDiKang, Hirudoid and Combizym. Plendil, introduced in February 216, recorded revenue of RMB274.6m (FY215 revenue: ~RMB1.2bn). The reported Plendil revenue was distorted and did not display the true picture, as (1) the gross profit of Plendil delivered and invoiced by AstraZeneca during the transition period was returned to, and recorded as turnover by, CMS; and (2) it was still in the transition period, and a lot of transition work had to be done in 1H216. To reflect the special accounting treatment for Plendil in March and April and the slowdown in sales of Deanxit and Bioflor, we trimmed our 216/17E revenue forecast by 6.9%/2.7, respectively. We slightly adjusted our core net profit forecast downwards by 2.3%/1.8% in 216/17E, respectively, to factor in the slowdown in growth of Deanxit and Bioflor, which together accounted for 25.4% of total 1H216 revenue. Overall, the growth story of CMS is well on track, and we raised our TP from HK$14.29 to HK$15.49 after rolling forward the base year to 217 (2x 217E PER). Maintain BUY. Investment Highlights 1H216 results in line; Growth story intact; Maintain BUY Overall results in line, but growth of some products slowing down: Deanxit recorded only 4.3% YoY growth because it is categorized as a premium quality class drug and CMS is waiting for the separate tendering to start in Guangdong Province, which accounts for ~1% of total Deanxit sales. The reason for Bioflor s slow growth is that CMS gave up tenders in Fujian Province due to a sharp ASP cut. Plendil numbers distorted, need to wait and see: As Plendil sales were distorted, we need to wait for a clearer picture. However, we believe CMS can rely on its experience of marketing and promoting a drug with ~RMB1bn sales (i.e. Deanxit and Ursofalk) to ramp up sales of Plendil and drive growth. Growth story well on track: The growth story of CMS is well on track, and we continue to like the company. We expect CMS to deliver a core EPS CAGR of 24% in E due to (1) its strong sales network; (2) the smoother-than-expected transition of Plendil from AstraZeneca with current sales volume comparable to the 215, according to management; and (3) fast growth of its new products. Y/E Dec A 215A 216E 217E 218E Turnover (RMB m) 2,945 3,553 4,968 6,263 7,374 Core net profit (RMB m) ,334 1,619 1,918 Core net margin (%) Core EPS (RMB) % Change PER (x) PBR (x) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Sources: Company, CGIS Research China Healthcare Sector BUY Close: HK$12.94 (Aug 23, 216) Target Price: HK$15.49 (+19.7%) Price Performance Aug 24, 216 (HK$) (HK$ million) Aug15 Feb16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) Market Cap US$4,151.1m Shares Outstanding 2,487.2m Auditor Deloitte Free Float 49.% 52W range HK$ M average daily T/O US$5.6m Major Shareholding Lam Kong (46.49%) Sources: Company, Bloomberg Harry He Analyst (852) harryhe@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 2

3 Figure 1: 1H216 results RMBm 1H215 1H216 YoY Direct sales network 1,39 1, % Plendil Deanxit % Ursofalk % XinHuoSu % Salofalk % Bioflor % Stulln % DanShenTong Capsule % NuoDiKang Capsule % Hirudoid % Combizym % Lamisil Tablet Parlodel Tablet 8.7 MOVICOL Imdur 2.1 Agency Promotion Network % YiNuoShu % XiDaKang % YinLianQingGanKeLi % Others % Revenue 1,676 2, % COGS (718) (98) 26.3% Gross profit 958 1, % Other gains and losses 3 (9) % Selling expenses (352) (46) 3.6% Administrative expenses (93) (12) 9.2% Operating profit % Finance costs (15) (17) 18.% Share of results of associates % Pre-tax profit % Tax (39) (44) 13.3% Net profit % Owners of the Company % MI (1) % Core net profit % Core EPS (basic) % GPM 57.1% 58.3% Selling ratio 21.% 21.1% Admin ratio 5.5% 4.7% Operating margin 32.4% 32.1% Effective tax rate 7.3% 6.3% Source: Company 3

4 Figure 2: Peer valuation PER(x) PBR(x) ROE(%) EV/EBITDA (x) Company name Ticker Price (HK$) Market cap (HK$m) E 217E E 217E E 217E E 217E CMS , Fosun Pharm-H , Sino Biopharm , CSPC , Livzon-H , Luye , Shanghai Fudan-H , Lee's Pharm , n.a n.a n.a Pionees Pharm , n.a n.a n.a n.a Dawnrays , Consun , n.a n.a n.a Simple average Weighted average Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Key financials Balance Sheet Profit and Loss As at Dec A 215A 216E 217E 218E Y ear as of Dec A 215A 216E 217E 218E (RM Bm) (RM Bm) Cash & cash equivalents ,438 Direct model 2,23 2,854 4,126 5,244 6,167 Inventories Agency model Accounts receivable 876 1,164 1,456 1,835 2,138 Others Others Revenue 2,945 3,553 4,968 6,263 7,374 Current assets 1,546 2,115 2,619 3,235 4,63 Cost of goods sold (1,291) (1,57) (2,8) (2,699) (3,188) Property, plant and equipment Gross profit 1,655 2,46 2,888 3,564 4,186 Intangible assets 441 1,26 3,29 3,11 3,18 Other gains / (losses) (15) Others 2,665 2,931 3,681 3,724 3,774 Marketing expenses (631) (814) (1,184) (1,492) (1,76) Non-current assets 3,36 4,283 7,171 7,45 7,768 Admin expenses (152) (193) (26) (355) (418) Operating profit 1,112 1,61 1,429 1,783 2,83 T otal assets 4,95 6,398 9,79 1,685 11,831 Net interest income / (expense) 18 (14) (39) (6) (39) JV, associate and others (1) Accounts payable Pretax income 1,13 1,64 1,427 1,767 2,96 ST borrowings ,868 2,58 2,378 Income taxes (87) (68) (86) (139) (169) Others , Non-controlling interests 3 (1) (7) (8) (1) Current liabilities ,423 3,276 3,192 Net profit 1, ,334 1,619 1,918 Non-recurring items 213 (1) Long-term debts 1 Core net profit ,334 1,619 1,918 Others EBIT 899 1,62 1,429 1,783 2,83 Long-term liabilities EBITDA 942 1,14 1,63 2,87 2,427 T otal liabilities 914 1,45 3,564 3,418 3,339 EPS (RMB) Core EPS (RMB) Shareholders' equity 3,991 5,296 6,163 7,195 8,41 DPS (RMB) Minority interests T otal equity 3,991 5,352 6,227 7,267 8,492 Cash Flow Key Ratios Year ended Dec A 215A 216E 217E 218E Year to Dec A 215A 216E 217E 218E (RMBm) Growth (% YoY ) Profit before tax 1,13 1,64 1,427 1,767 2,96 Sales Depr & amortization EBIT Change in working cap. (34) (424) (1) (312) (233) EBITDA Income tax paid (67) (17) (87) (138) (164) Core net profit Others (227) (11) Core EPS Operating cash flow ,445 1,638 2,33 Profitability (%) Capex (288) (529) (1,332) (1,547) (612) Gross margin Change in other assets (648) (323) (1,73) (127) 64 EBIT margin Investment cash flow (936) (853) (2,45) (1,675) (548) EBITDA margin Core net profit margin Net change in debt 17 (58) 1, (22) ROA Others (32) 278 (522) (662) (765) ROE Financing cash flow (15) (967) Balance sheet ratios Current ratio (X) Net change in cash (243) (18) (77) Quick ratio (X) Cash ratio (X) Trade & bill receivables days Trade & bill payable days Inventory turnover days Total debt to equity ratio (%) Net debt / (cash) to equity (%).8 (.8) Source: CGIS Research estimates 5

6 Disclaimer This research report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or used by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited ( Galaxy International Securities ) and/or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This report (including any information attached) is issued by Galaxy International Securities, one of the subsidiaries of the China Galaxy International Financial Holdings Limited, to the institutional clients from the information sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty (expressly or implied) is made as to their accuracy, correctness and/or completeness. This report shall not be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities of the company(ies) referred to herein. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The recipient of this report should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own independent financial advisers prior to any investment decision. Where any part of the information, opinions or estimates contained herein reflects the personal views and opinions of the analyst who prepared this report, such views and opinions may not correspond to the published views or investment decisions of China Galaxy International Financial Holdings Limited and any of its subsidiaries ( China Galaxy International ), directors, officers, agents and employees ( the Relevant Parties ). All opinions and estimates reflect the judgment of the analyst on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. China Galaxy International and/or the Relevant Parties hereby disclaim any of their liabilities arising from the inaccuracy, incorrectness and incompleteness of this report and its attachment/s and/or any action or omission made in reliance thereof. Accordingly, this report must be read in conjunction with this disclaimer. Disclosure of Interests China Galaxy Securities (6881.hk) is the direct and/or indirect holding company of the group of companies under China Galaxy International. China Galaxy International may have financial interests in relation to the subjected company(ies) the securities in respect of which are reviewed in this report, and such interests aggregate to an amount may equal to or more than 1 % of the subjected company(ies) market capitalization. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of China Galaxy International may be a director or officer of the securities of the company(ies) mentioned in this report. China Galaxy International and the Relevant Parties may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the securities of the company(ies) mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such company(ies), and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. China Galaxy International may have served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the last 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment or investment banking services to the company(ies) mentioned in this report. Furthermore, China Galaxy International may have received compensation for investment banking services from the company(ies) mentioned in this report within the preceding 12 months and may currently seeking investment banking mandate from the subject company(ies). Analyst Certification The analyst who is primarily responsible for the content of this report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject, securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by the analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this research report within 3 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the securities covered in this research report three business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong-listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong-listed companies covered in this report. Explanation on Equity Ratings BUY SELL HOLD : : share price will increase by >2% within 12 months in absolute terms share price will decrease by >2% within 12 months in absolute terms : no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL Copyright Reserved No part of this material may be reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited. China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, CE No.AXM459 Room , 35/F, Cosco Tower, Grand Millennium Plaza, 183 Queen s Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. General line:

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