中兴通讯 [0763.HK] 第三季业绩快季公布后上调盈利预测 ; 维持买入中兴通讯昨晚公布了 2017 年前三季度业绩快报, 并公布了 2017 年全年的指引在公司公布业绩快报后, 我们上调了公司的净利润预测公司的 2017 年全年指引应有助消除市场对有关电信运营商资本开支的担忧我们仍然

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "中兴通讯 [0763.HK] 第三季业绩快季公布后上调盈利预测 ; 维持买入中兴通讯昨晚公布了 2017 年前三季度业绩快报, 并公布了 2017 年全年的指引在公司公布业绩快报后, 我们上调了公司的净利润预测公司的 2017 年全年指引应有助消除市场对有关电信运营商资本开支的担忧我们仍然"

图施田
4 years ago
Views:

1 中兴通讯 [763.HK] 第三季业绩快季公布后上调盈利预测 ; 维持买入中兴通讯昨晚公布了 17 年前三季度业绩快报, 并公布了 17 年全年的指引在公司公布业绩快报后, 我们上调了公司的净利润预测公司的 17 年全年指引应有助消除市场对有关电信运营商资本开支的担忧我们仍然相信, 随着中兴通讯在中国和海外市场取得份额, 公司的前景将向好由于海外企业正失去竞争力, 中兴通讯的全球市场份额正不断提升我们仍然认为, 由于中兴通讯同时经营无线和有线产品业务, 公司将能受益于市场对物联网的投资光纤网络的建设和 5G 的兴起中兴通讯是中国电信首次 NB-IoT 模组招标的关键芯片供应商, 这证明了中兴通讯在新技术方面的研发能力由于中兴通讯拥有强大的研发能力, 加上公司与海外电信运营商正展开更多业务洽谈, 我们预期公司的全球市场份额将会提升在中长期而言, 公司的策略是通过扩大非运营商业务 (IT 服务 ) 实现增长中兴通讯致力于投资 IoT 5G IC 设计软件定义网络和高端路由器等新技术, 这些都是电信行业不断增长的领域尽管公司年初至今已跑赢大盘, 但考虑到公司在物联网开发的领先地位更多用户采用 5G, 以及市场持续投资光纤网络等因素, 我们在目前不打算下调中兴通讯的评级若投资者获利出售导致股价调整, 将为投资者带来再次进场的良机我们维持买入评级, 最新目标价为港元 ( 基于 29 倍 17 年市盈率, 接近历史平均的高端水平 ) 投资亮点前三季业绩快报确认增长势头持续中兴通讯昨天公布了 17 年前三季业绩快报 17 年 1-9 月收入为亿元人民币, 同比增长 7%(16 年 1-9 月为亿元人民币 ) 中兴通讯于 17 年前三季实现净利润亿元人民币, 同比增长 36.6%(16 年前三季为亿元人民币 ) 期内收入增长, 主要是受到运营商网络和消费者业务收入同比增长推动我们相信, 公司的政府和企业业务录得同比负增长, 主要由于企业策略出现变化中兴通讯 17 年前三季综合毛利率为 31.6%, 高于 17 年上半年的.9%, 反映 17 年第三季的利润率较上半年有所改善我们认为, 利润率的上升意味着净利润将同时受到业务组合改善和收入增长所支持中兴通讯也公布了 17 年指引, 预计公司净利润为 43 亿元至 48 亿元人民币我们认为, 公司的 17 年全年指引应有助消除市场对有关电信运营商或削减资本开支的担忧, 而由于公司未来业绩的不明朗因素减少, 预计公司将实现比同业更可持续的增长新业务取得突破中兴通讯前景依然正面, 因行业发展带来新机遇, 如 Pre 5G 产品 5G 开发大视频宽带中国战略和物联网开发等应用越来越广泛随着公司与运营商网络相连接, 公司将继续开展研发投入和技术建设, 并重点关注 5G IOT 虚拟化云化大视频光传输和光接入等主要产品, 提供创新解决方案, 同时增强其项目工作服务能力, 以扩大全球市场份额中兴通讯在物联网业务发展方面取得了重大突破, 尤其公司在面对 11 个竞争对手之下成功成为中国电信首次招标 NB-IoT 模块的关键芯片供应商即使合同规模不大, 但考虑到中兴通讯从投资新技术中录得现金流, 该合同具有是象征意义这也证明了中兴通讯的研发能力我们预计在 5G 时代中, 随着行业整合和设备制造商持续投入研发, 预计中兴通讯等设备制造商将取得更多市场份额我们认为, 中兴通讯将实现比同业更可持续的增长更新盈利预测和目标价在公司公布 17 年前三季业绩快报后, 我们将 17 年和 18 年净利润预测分别调高了 4.4% 和 4.2% 我们上调盈利是由于提升了毛利率预测 ( 从 29.5% 上调至 29.7%) 尽管公司年初至今已跑赢大盘, 但考虑到公司在物联网开发的领先地位更多用户采用 5G, 以及市场持续投资光纤网络等因素若股价调整将为投资者带来再次进场的良机 Key Financials 主要财务指标 ( 百万元人民币 ) (in RMBm) E 18E 收入 Revenue 81,471.3, , , ,552. 变动 ( 同比 %) Change (YoY %) 毛利润 Gross Profit 23, , , , ,74.9 毛利润率 (%) Gross Margin % 净利润 Net Profit 2, ,7.9 (2,357.4) 4, ,4.3 Net 净利润率 Margin (%) % (2.3) EPS 每股收益 (Basic) ( 基本 ) (.57) Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %) %) n.a. n.a DPS 每股派息 $. $.25 $. $.225 $.26 ROE 净资产收益率 (%) (%) (8.4) Dividend 股息收益率 (%) Yield (%) PER 市盈率 ((x) 倍 ) (46.7) PBR 市净率 ((x) 倍 ) FCF 自由现金流收益率 Yield (%) (%) 1.4% 2.23%.2% -4.69% -1.71% Capex (m) (1,77.1) (1,696.3) (1,865.9) (2,52.5) (2,36.4) 资本开支 ( 百万元 ) Free cash flow per share.3.7. (1.4) (.5) 每股自由现金流 Net Gearing (%) 净负债比率 (%) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部 TMT 行业硬件买入收盘价 : 29.5 港元 (17 年月 18 日 ) 目标价 : 港元 (+19.6%) 股价表现 17 年月 19 日 (HK$) Oct16 Dec16 Feb17 Apr17 Jun17 Aug17 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 8 6 来源 : 彭博市值 187. 亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 Ernst & Young 自由流通量 % 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 3,65 万美元主要股东深圳市中兴新通讯设备有限公司 (.8%) 来源 : 彭博, 公司布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (852) markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 1

2 ZTE Corporation [763.HK] Earnings upgrade after Q3 17 preliminary results announcement. Maintain BUY. ZTE Corporation (ZTE) posted its preliminary results for Jan-Sep 17 and released guidance for full-year 17 last night. We raised our net profit forecasts after the release of the preliminary results. The guidance for full-year 17 should remove concerns about the impact of CAPEX by telecom operators. We reiterate the view that ZTE s outlook will be supported by gaining market share in both China and overseas markets. ZTE is gaining market share globally as overseas players lose their competitiveness. We maintain the view that ZTE s exposure to both wireless and wired enables it to benefit from investment in IoT development, optical fibre network construction and 5G migration. ZTE is a key supplier of ICs for China Telecom s first tender for NB-IoT modules, which is proof of ZTE s R&D capability in new technologies. We also expect ZTE to gain global market share because of its strong R&D capability and more discussions with overseas telecom operators. The expansion to non-operator business (IT services) is a medium-long-term growth strategy for the Company. ZTE is committed to investing in new technologies, such as IoT, 5G, IC design, softwaredefined networks and high-end routers, which are growing areas in the telecommunications industry. Despite its YTD share price outperformance, we are reluctant to downgrade ZTE, given it s leading position in IoT development, 5G migration and the continuous investment in optical fibre networks. Any share price correction due to profit taking should offer a good re-entry opportunity. We maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of HK$35.27 (based on 29x 17E PER, at the higher end of its historical average). Investment Highlights Preliminary Jan-Sep 17 results confirm growth is on track. ZTE announced its preliminary results for Jan-Sep 17 last night. Turnover was RMB76,579.7m in Jan-Sep 17, up 7.% YoY from RMB71,564.m in Jan-Sep 16. ZTE reported a net profit of RMB3,94.7m in Jan-Sep 17, up 36.6% YoY from RMB2,858.9m in Jan-Sep 16. Top-line growth was driven mainly by YoY growth in turnover of both carrier networks and consumer business. We believe that the Company s government and corporate business segment reported negative YoY growth due to a change in corporate strategy. ZTE s blended gross margin was 31.6% in Jan-Sep 17, up from.9% in 1H 17, indicating margin improvement in Q3 17 vs. 1H 17. The margin improvement, in our view, implies ZTE s bottom line growth will be supported by both better business mix and top-line growth. ZTE also released guidance for 17, indicating the Company s net profit is expected to be between RMB4.3bn and 4.8bn. We believe that the guidance for 17 should remove concerns about the impact of potential CAPEX cuts by telecom operators and that the Company will deliver more sustainable growth than its peers, with less swing factor in its results going forward. Breakthrough in new business development. The outlook for ZTE remains positive, given new opportunities from industry development, such as more extensive applications of pre-5g products, 5G development, big video, the Broadband China Strategy and IoT development. In connection with carrier networks, ZTE will continue its R&D investment and technology build-up, with a strong focus on principal products in 5G, IOT, virtualisation, cloudification, big video, optical transmission and optical access, offering innovative solutions, while enhancing its ability in project work servicing in a bid to enlarge its global market share. ZTE has had a major breakthrough in IoT business development, as the Company beat 11 competitors and became a key supplier of ICs for China Telecom s first tender for the NB-IoT modules. Even if the contract size is not significant, it is symbolic that ZTE has monetized its investment in new technologies. This is also proof of ZTE s R&D capability. We expect the Chinese telecommunications equipment makers such as ZTE to grab an even higher market share in the 5G era, given industry consolidation and their continuous investment in R&D. We believe that ZTE will have more sustainable development than its peers. New earnings forecasts and target price. We raised our net profit forecasts for 17 and 18 by 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, after the preliminary Jan-Sep 17 results announcement. Our upward earnings revision is due to assuming higher gross margin assumptions (from 29.5% to 29.7%) in our model. Despite its share price outperformance, we are reluctant to downgrade ZTE, because of the Company s leading position in IoT development and 5G migration, and its continuous investment in optical fibre networks. Any share price weakness should provide a re-entry opportunity. Key Financials (in RMBm) E 18E Revenue 81,471.3, , , ,552. Change (YoY %) Gross Profit 23, , , , ,74.9 Gross Margin % Net Profit 2, ,7.9 (2,357.4) 4, ,4.3 Net Margin % (2.3) EPS (Basic) (.57) Change (YoY %) n.a. n.a DPS $. $.25 $. $.225 $.26 Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (852) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) TMT Sector Hardware BUY Close: HK$29.5 (Oct 18, 17) Target Price: HK$35.27 (+19.6%) Share Price Performance (HK$) Source: Bloomberg. Market Cap cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$18,7m Shares Outstanding 41,25m Auditor Ernst & Young Free Float-H Shares % 52W range 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholding Source: Bloomberg, Company data October 19, 17 Oct16 Dec16 Feb17 Apr17 Jun17 Aug17 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 8 6 HK$ US$36.5m Zhongxingxin (.8%) ROE (%) (8.4) Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) (46.7) PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 1.4% 2.23%.2% -4.69% -1.71% Capex (m) (1,77.1) (1,696.3) (1,865.9) (2,52.5) (2,36.4) Free cash flow per share.3.7. (1.4) (.5) Net Gearing (%) Research, Source: Bloomberg, CGIS 2

3 Figure 1: Earnings projection Income Statement (RMBm) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F Cash Flow Statement (RMBm) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F Revenue 81,471,186 1, , ,552 Net Income 4,719 4,839 (417) 6,927 7,929 Growth yoy% 8.3% 23.% 1.% 11.7% 9.2% Depreciation & Amort ,61 1,154 1,256 1,414 Gross Profit 23,712 29,93 29,624 33,66 36,75 Change in Working Capital (3,565) (1,495) 1,156 (11,9) (9,9) Growth yoy% 15.9% 22.7% 1.8% 13.4% 9.2% Cash from Ops. 2,1 4,5 1,893 (3,737) 253 Selling General & Admin Exp. (21,538) (26,656) (28,116) (,512) (32,78) Capital Expenditure (1,77) (1,696) (1,866) (2,53) (2,36) Others Operating Expenses/Items 2,545 2,2 (1,925) 3,833 3,932 Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income 4,719 4,839 (417) 6,927 7,929 Change in Investing Acitivities (945) 3,925 5,32 4,226 6,383 Growth yoy% n.a. 2.5% (8.6%) (1,761%) 14.5% Cash from Investing (2,22) 2,229 3,166 2,173 4,22 Interest Expense (1,562) (1,269) (1,156) (1,434) (1,542) Net increase in bank borrowings (1,3) 2,6 (795) 2,1 2,19 Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates (53.) Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) Common Dividends Paid (138) (688) (1,38) (943) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest Other Financing Activities (1,651) (1,139) (1,9) (1,443) (1,599) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing (3,99) 814 (2,842) 858 (523) Income Tax Expense (8) (563) (6) (821) (947) Minority Int. in Earnings (94) (532) (95) (782) (92) Net Change in Cash (2,991) 7,448 2,217 (76) 3,752 Net Income 2,634 3,8 (2,357) 4,716 5,4 Growth yoy% 436% 21.8% (173.5%) (.1%) 15.4% Balance Sheet (RMBm) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F Ratios FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F ASSETS Sources: Company, CGIS Research Profitability Cash And Equivalents 17,2 26,617,4,885 33,783 Return on Assets % 2.5% 2.7% (1.8%) 3.2% 3.4% Receivables 34,123 36,19 41,798 46,76 51,13 Return on Capital % 7.9% 8.1% (2.4%) 12.1% 12.7% Inventory 19,592 19,732 26,811 29,959 32,721 Return on Equity % 11.1% 11.8% (8.4%) 17.9% 19.1% Other Current Assets 15,345 16,646 13,99 15,287 13,796 Total Current Assets 86,29 99,14 112,82 122, ,313 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 7,664 8, 9,12 9,88,755 Gross Margin % 29.1% 29.% 29.3% 29.7% 29.7% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 15.4% 14.4% 15.2% 15.4% 15.4% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin % 6.3% 5.5%.3% 6.8% 7.1% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin % 7.5% 6.6% 1.5% 7.9% 8.3% Other Long-Term Assets 16, 17,274 19,748,356 21,327 Net Income Margin % 3.2% 3.2% (2.3%) 4.2% 4.4% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 23,964 25,574 28,76,164 32,82 Total Asset Turnover.7x.8x.7x.7x.8x Total Assets 1, , , ,1 163,395 Fixed Asset Turnover 3.4x 3.9x 3.5x 3.8x 3.9x Accounts Receivable Turnover 2.6x 2.9x 2.6x 2.6x 2.5x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover 4.2x 5.1x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x Accounts Payable 45,224 48,599 65,684 73,398 8,166 Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings,348 17,799 17,984,96 21,95 Current Ratio 1.2x 1.2x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.7x.6x.8x.7x.6x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities 4,393 4,935 7,846 8,213 4,342 Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities 69,965 71,332 91,514 1,77 6,457 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt, 6,16 5,18 5,18 5,18 Net Debt to Equity 9% 22% 8% 14% 8% Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. Other Non-Current Liabilities 3,957 3,891 3,99 4,66 4,996 Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 83,962 81,239, , ,471 Total Revenue 8.3% 23.% 1.% 11.7% 9.2% Common Stock 3,438 4,151 4,185 4,185 4,185 Net Income 436.4% 21.8% (173%) (.1%) 15.4% Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio % 26.1% 32.1%.%.%.% Retained Earnings 21,441 25,59 22,217 22,65 26,418 Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest 1, , , , ,321.4 Total Equity 26,293 43,349 41,39 41,67 46,924 Total Liabilities And Equity 1, , , ,1 163,395 3

4 Oct-9 Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Figure 2: ZTE s PER trend HKD x 29x 22x 15x 8x Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates 4

5 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (6881.HK; CH) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 1%; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >% 沽出持有 : : 股价于个月内将下跌没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环皇后大道中 183 号新纪元广场中远大厦 35 楼室电话 :

Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK)

Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) : Hengan International (01044 HK) 中文版 Sunny Kwok 郭日升公司报告 : 恒安国际 (01044 HK) Chinese version +852 2509 2642 sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk Proposed Spin-Off of QinQin 将分拆亲亲食品 GTJA Research 国泰