ZTE Corporation [763.HK;63.CH] 1H 217 results should mark the trough; ZTE remains a beneficiary of G investment. ZTE Corporation s (ZTE) 1H 218 result

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1 中兴通讯 [763.HK] 218 年中期业绩已见底 ; 仍是 G 投资的受惠者我们相信公司 218 年中期业绩已经见底 ; 继公司受到美国出口禁令的影响后, 将有望逐步复苏根据 218 年第三季指引, 中兴通讯的业务运营或在第四季恢复到更正常的水平我们对中兴通讯的看法趋向正面, 因预计未来不会有重大拨备或相关撇账我们还认为, 中兴通讯仍将是中国投资 G 的主要受益者, 而公司扩张非运营商业务的举措亦是中长期增长动力我们认为, 中兴通讯的复苏主要是受到本土电信运营商政府和企业业务的资本支出回升所推动最近本土电信运营商恢复了设备招标, 因此电信设备供应商 ( 特别是无线设备领域 ) 有望在 218 年上半年经历艰巨的环境后受益但是, 由于消费产品业务较依赖海外市场, 因此预计将较为落后中兴通讯致力于投资新技术, 如物联网 G 集成电路设计软件定义网络和高端路由器, 这些都是电信行业发展中的领域我们认为, 在公布 218 年第三季和第四季业绩后, 市场对中兴通讯的信心将一定程度恢复除了经营业绩复苏外, 中国发展 G 的消息亦是公司的重要股价催化剂我们维持买入评级, 最新目标价为港元, 基于 14 倍 219 年市盈率, 低于 22 倍的历史平均值, 亦低于行业平均值 16.3 倍下调目标价主要是由于下调了目标市盈率所致 ( 从 23 倍降至 14 倍 ) 投资亮点 218 年上半年 : 已经见底 218 年上半年中兴通讯的营业额同比下降 27.% 至人民币亿元期内公司净亏损人民币亿元, 而 217 年上半年则录得净利润人民币 19.1 亿元此次业绩符合之前指引范围的中间值 218 年上半年, 运营商网络业务和消费者业务的收入分别同比下降 27% 和 36% 218 年上半年政府和企业业务收入同比增长 18% 公司的综合毛利率同比增长 2.6%, 主要由于运营商网络业务的贡献上升, 因该业务的毛利率较高 218 年上半年录得净亏损主要是由于美国拒绝订单导致业务暂停和罚款 218 年上半年的罚款为人民币 64 亿元,218 年上半年的拨备和撇账同比增加人民币 2 亿元中兴通讯此前就 218 年 1 月至 9 月发布盈警, 指引净亏损人民币 68 亿元 -78 亿元根据公告, 中兴通讯可能会在 218 年第三季录得净利润, 反映公司正处于复苏的轨道上本土市场有潜力推动复苏我们认为, 市场可能对中兴通讯的增长前景感到担忧, 因海外市场的设备和消费品业务份额均可能出现下滑我们认为消费产品业务将较弱, 但设备和非运营商业务 ( 特别是与中国 G 发展有关的业务 ) 将在 218 年第四季和 219 年推动复苏我们认为,G 是中国政府支持的一个区域, 将为中兴等设备制造商带来增长潜力除了无线设备, 中兴通讯还投资了其他新技术, 让公司能受益于 NB-IoT 等新技术的采用将继续跑赢中兴通讯近期跑赢大盘, 我们认为市场将其视为中国发展 G 的受益者我们预计, 今年晚些时候将有更多关于 G 发展的消息, 并提振中兴通讯股价由于市场担忧逐渐消退, 预计中兴通讯将继续跑赢 218 年 9 月 3 日 TMT 行业硬件买入收盘价 :1.24 港元 (218 年 8 月 31 日 ) 目标价 (H 股 ):18.67 港元 (+22.%) 股价表现 (HK$) Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 来源 : 彭博市值亿美元已发行股数亿股核数师 Ernst & Young 自由流通量 1% 2 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量,2 万美元主要股东深圳市中兴新通讯设备有限公司 (3.8%) Key Financials 主要财务指标 ( 百万人民币 ) (in RMBm) E 219E Revenue 收入 1, , , , ,44.4 Change 变动 ( 同比 %) (YoY %) (1.4) 16.9 Gross 毛利润 Profit 29, , , , ,99.8 Gross 毛利润率 Margin % Net 净利润 Profit 3,27.9 (2,37.4) 4,68.2 (,124.6) 4,89.9 Net 净利润率 Margin % 3.2 (2.3) 4.2 (.3) 4.3 EPS (Basic).78 (.7) 1.9 (1.22) 1.17 每股收益 ( 基本 ) Change (YoY %) 1. n.a. n.a. (212.2) (19.4) 变动 ( 同比 %) DPS $.2 $. $.33 $. $.44 每股派息净资产收益率 (%) ROE (%) 11.8 (8.4) 1.7 (18.) 17.7 股息收益率 (%) Dividend Yield (%) PER 市盈率 ((x) 倍 ) 17. (23.4) 12.2 (1.8) 11.4 PBR 市净率 ((x) 倍 ) FCF 自由现金流收益率 Yield (%) (%) 7.6% 3.22% 13.% 9.94% 9.4% Capex 资本开支 ((m) 百万元 ) (1,97.9) (2,621.8) (2,2.) (2,36.4) (2,714.) Free 每股自由现金流 cash flow per share Net 净负债比率 Gearing (%) (%) 来源 : 彭博, 公司布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (82) markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (82) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 来源 : 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部 1

2 ZTE Corporation [763.HK;63.CH] 1H 217 results should mark the trough; ZTE remains a beneficiary of G investment. ZTE Corporation s (ZTE) 1H 218 results should mark the trough, and the Company is on track to recovery from the impact of the US ban on exports. Based on guidance for Q3 218, ZTE s operations are likely to return to a more normal level in Q We have turned more positive on ZTE, as there should be no major provisions or related write-offs booked going forward. We also believe that ZTE will remain a major beneficiary of G investment in China and that the Company s expansion to non-operator business is a medium-long-term growth driver. We believe that ZTE s recovery was mainly driven by a pick-up in CAPEX by local telecom operators, and government and corporate business. The local telecom operators resumed equipment tenders recently, so telecom equipment suppliers, especially wireless names, should benefit after a challenging 1H 218. However, the consumer products segment is expected to lag behind, since it is more reliant on overseas markets. ZTE is committed to investing in new technologies, such as IoT, G, IC design, software-defined networks and high-end routers, which are growing areas in the telecommunications industry. We believe that market confidence in ZTE will be restored somewhat after the Q3 and Q4 218 results. In addition to recovery in operating performance, news flow on G development in China is a major share price catalyst for ZTE. We maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of HK$18.67, based on 14x 219E PER, lower than the Company s historical mean of 22x and lower than the industry average of 16.3x. The downward revision is due to lower a PER multiple (cut from 23x to 14x) used. The target price for ZTE-A (63.CH) is RMB21., based on a 17% premium to ZTE-H (Hang Seng Connect China AH Premium Index). We have a HOLD rating on ZTE-A. Investment Highlights 1H 218: Marked the trough. ZTE s turnover dropped 27.% YoY to RMB39,433.8m in 1H 218. The Company reported a net loss of RMB7,824.2m in 1H 218 vs. a net profit of RMB1,91.m in 1H 217. The results were in line with the mid-point of previous guidance. Revenue for the carrier network segment and consumer business reported a YoY decline of 27% and 36%, respectively, in 1H 218. Revenue from government and corporate business grew 18% YoY in 1H 218. The Company s blended gross profit margin improved 2.6% YoY in 1H 218 due to a higher contribution from the carrier network segment, which has a higher gross profit margin. The net loss in 1H 218 was due mainly to business suspension and a penalty payment as a result of the US denial order. The penalty booked in 1H 218 was RMB6.4bn, and there was an RMB2.bn YoY increase in provisions and write-offs in 1H 218. ZTE issued a profit alert for Jan-Sep 218, which guided a net loss of RMB6.8bn-7.8bn. Based on announcement, ZTE is likely to report a net profit in Q3 218, which indicates the Company is on the track to recovery. Local market potential to drive recovery. We share the view that the market might have concerns about the growth outlook for ZTE, given the potential market share loss in overseas markets in both the equipment and consumer products segments. We believe that the consumer product segment will lag behind, but that the equipment and non-operator business, especially that related to G development in China, should drive recovery in Q4 218 and 219. We maintain the view that since G is an area supported by the Chinese government, it will generate growth potential for equipment makers such as ZTE. In addition to wireless equipment, ZTE has invested in new technologies that allow Company to benefit from adoption of new technologies like NB-IoT. Outperformance to continue. ZTE outperformed recently, and we believe that the market is treating it as a proxy for G investment in China. We expect more news flow on G to emerge later this year and drive up shares of ZTE. ZTE s outperformance is expected to continue as concerns gradually fade. Key Financials (in RMBm) E 219E Revenue 1, , , , ,44.4 Change (YoY %) (1.4) 16.9 Gross Profit 29, , , , ,99.8 Gross Margin % Net Profit 3,27.9 (2,37.4) 4,68.2 (,124.6) 4,89.9 Net Margin % 3.2 (2.3) 4.2 (.3) 4.3 EPS (Basic).78 (.7) 1.9 (1.22) 1.17 Change (YoY %) 1. n.a. n.a. (212.2) (19.4) DPS $.2 $. $.33 $. $.44 ROE (%) 11.8 (8.4) 1.7 (18.) 17.7 Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (82) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (82) TMT Sector Hardware Share Price Performance Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$11,68m 4,189.2m Ernst & Young Free Float-H Shares 1% 2W range September 3, 218 BUY (H-share)/HOLD (A-Share) Close: HK$1.24 (Aug 31, 218) (HK$) TP (H) : HK$18.67 (+22.%) TP (A) : RMB21. (14.4%) Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Source: Bloomberg. Turnover (RHS) 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholding Source: Bloomberg, Company data Price (LHS) (HK$ million) HK$ US$2m Zhongxingxin (3.8%) Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) 17. (23.4) 12.2 (1.8) 11.4 PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 7.6% 3.22% 13.% 9.94% 9.4% Capex (m) (1,97.9) (2,621.8) (2,2.) (2,36.4) (2,714.) Free cash flow per share Net Gearing (%) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 2

3 Figure 1: Earnings projection Income Statement (RMBm) FY21 FY216 FY217 FY218F FY219F Cash Flow Statement (RMBm) FY21 FY216 FY217 FY218F FY219F Revenue 1,186 11,233 18,81 97,3 114,44 Net Income 4,839 (413) 7,247 3,42 8,26 Growth yoy% 23.% 1.% 7.% (1.4%) 16.9% Depreciation & Amort. 1,131 1,28 1,388 1,4 1,726 Gross Profit 29,93 29,921 32,699 27,26 36,991 Change in Working Capital 796 3,792 2,68 3,76 (1,34) Growth yoy% 22.7% 2.8% 9.3% (16.6%) 3.7% Cash from Ops. 6,767 4,664 1,73 8,74 8,719 Selling General & Admin Exp. (26,66) (27,43) (28,46) (26,29) (31,82) Capital Expenditure (1,98) (2,622) (2,3) (2,36) (2,714) Others Operating Expenses/Items 2,638 (3,2) 3,1 2,1 2,246 Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income,76 (327) 7,249 3,126 8,14 Change in Investing Acitivities 89 (1,32) (69,716) (17,27) 4,23 Growth yoy% n.a. n.a. n.a. (7%) 16.9% Cash from Investing (1,869) (3,64) (71,768) (19,636) 1,39 Interest Expense (1,269) (1,16) (1,18) (1,133) (1,299) Net increase in bank borrowings 4,816 6,143 (1,66) (2,213) 3,239 Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates (128.2) (137.1) (146.7) Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) (8,9.) Common Dividends Paid (688) (1,38) (1,382) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest Other Financing Activities 1,81 1,89 (1,677) 349 (1,98) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing,79 6,914 (3,283) (3,247) 1,24 Income Tax Expense (63) (64) (1,333) 1,97 (1,299) Minority Int. in Earnings (32) (9) (818) 66 (9) Net Change in Cash 1,68 61,924 (64,349) (14,178) 11,281 Net Income 3,28 (2,37) 4,68 (,12) 4,891 Growth yoy% 22% n.a. n.a. (212.2%) (19.4%) Balance Sheet (RMBm) FY21 FY216 FY217 FY218F FY219F Ratios FY21 FY216 FY217 FY218F FY219F ASSETS Sources: Company, CGIS Research Profitability Cash And Equivalents 26,617 3, 3,19 17,13 22,211 Return on Assets % 2.7% (1.8%) 3.2% (3.8%) 3.7% Receivables 36,19 41,798 38,378 34,4 4,223 Return on Capital % 8.1% (2.4%) 11.1% (7.7%) 12.8% Inventory 19,732 26,811 26,234 23,1 27,49 Return on Equity % 11.8% (8.4%) 1.7% (18.%) 17.7% Other Current Assets 16,646 13,99 13,38 11,21 12,894 Total Current Assets 99,14 112,648 18,26 86,66 12,823 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 8,369 9,281 9,94 1,76 11,748 Gross Margin % 29.% 29.6% 3.% 28.% 32.4% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 14.4% 1.2% 14.2% 1.% 1.% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin %.%.3% 7.4% 4.% 7.% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin % 6.6% 1.6% 8.6%.6% 9.% Other Long-Term Assets 17,2 19,48 2,77 27,18 28,349 Net Income Margin % 3.2% (2.3%) 4.2% (.3%) 4.3% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 2,74 28,76 3,73 37,778 4,97 Total Asset Turnover.8x.7x.8x.8x.8x Total Assets 124,88 141,48 143, , ,92 Fixed Asset Turnover 3.9x 3.x 3.x 2.6x 2.8x Accounts Receivable Turnover 2.9x 2.6x 2.7x 2.7x 3.1x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover.1x 3.8x 4.1x 4.1x 4.1x Accounts Payable 48,99 6,684 9,294 3,147 62,143 Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings 17,799 19,327 19,616 17,83 2,9 Current Ratio 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.8x.7x.7x.6x.6x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities 4,93 6,3 8,684 4,813 4,878 Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities 71,332 91,14 87,94 7,43 87,8 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt 6,16,18 3,2 3,2 3,2 Net Debt to Equity 22% 14% 6% 1% 36% Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. Other Non-Current Liabilities 3,891 3,99 7,98 6,991 7,689 Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 81,239 1,23 98,82 8,37 98,272 Total Revenue 23.% 1.% 7.% (1.4%) 16.9% Common Stock 4,11 4,18 4,193 4,193 4,193 Net Income 21.8% n.a. n.a. (212.2%) (19.4%) Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio % 32.1%.% 3.3%.% 37.7% Retained Earnings 2,9 22,217 27,44 2,947 2,838 Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest 13, , , , ,617.3 Total Equity 43,349 4,88 4,38 38,88 44,648 Total Liabilities And Equity 124,88 141,48 143, , ,92 3

4 Figure 2: Peer comparsion Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance Price Market Cap 218F 219F 22F 218F 219F 22F F F F F 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % % 763 HK Zte Corp-H ,68 n.a n.a. n.a. 7.1 n.a n.a HK Comba Telecom Systems Holdin HK China Communications Servi-H 6., HK Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H , n.a n.a n.a HK Nanfang Communication Holdin n.a. n.a n.a HK China U-Ton Holdings Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6. n.a n.a n.a.. n.a HK China Tower Corp Ltd-H , n.a n.a..96 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 877 HK O-Net Technologies Group Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a HK Trigiant Group Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a..6 n.a. 7.4 n.a..8 n.a HK China Mobile Ltd , HK China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd , HK China Telecom Corp Ltd-H , HK Citic Telecom International 2.4 1, HK Hkt Trust And Hkt Ltd-Ss , HK Hkbn Ltd , HK Smartone Telecommunications , HK Hutchison Telecomm Hong Kong , Average CH Zte Corp-A , n.a CH Dr Peng Telcom & Media Gr-A , n.a CH Shenzhen Tat Fook Technolo-A ,28 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.6 n.a. 3. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Datang Telecom Tech Co-A n.a. n.a n.a.. n.a CH Fiberhome Telecom Tech Co-A , n.a CH Fujian Star-Net Communicat-A , n.a CH Accelink Technologies Co -A , n.a CH Hengtong Optic-Electric Co-A , n.a CH Tongding Interconnection I-A 9.4 1, n.a. n.a CH Jiangsu Zhongtian Technolo-A , n.a CH Shenzhen Sdg Info Co Ltd-A n.a. n.a CH Fuchun Technology Co Ltd - A 4.66 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 n.a. 8. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Huagong Tech Co Ltd-A , n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 n.a. 7. n.a. 4. n.a. n.a CH Beijing Sinnet Technology-A , n.a CH Unisplendour Corp Ltd-A 4. 9, n.a CH Wangsu Science & Technolog-A 9.9 3, n.a CH Shanghai Baosight Software-A , n.a CH Shennan Circuits Co Ltd-A , n.a. n.a. n.a n.a CH Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd-A , n.a CH Yealink Network Technology-A 6.4 2, CH Gosuncn Technology Group C-A , n.a CH Sunsea Aiot Technology Co -A n.a. n.a. n.a n.a CH Beijing Highlander Digital-A n.a n.a CH Guangzhou Haige Communicat-A 8. 2, n.a CH Shanghai Huace Navigation -A n.a Average PRY IM Prysmian Spa , n.a JNPR US Juniper Networks Inc , JP Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd , n.a JP Fujikura Ltd , n.a MSI US Motorola Solutions Inc , n.a. n.a. n.a CSCO US Cisco Systems Inc , ALU FP Alcatel-Lucent Sa n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. ERICB SS Ericsson Lm-B Shs , n.a LITE US Lumentum Holdings Inc , n.a FNSR US Finisar Corporation , n.a.. n.a COHR US Coherent Inc , n.a n.a.. n.a EMKR US Emcore Corp n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. 1.2 n.a. 6.8 n.a n.a.. n.a AAOI US Applied Optoelectronics Inc n.a n.a. 8. n.a.. n.a ACIA US Acacia Communications Inc , n.a CIEN US Ciena Corp , INFN US Infinera Corp 9.6 1,386 n.a IPGP US Ipg Photonics Corp , n.a n.a.. n.a NPTN US Neophotonics Corp n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a.. n.a VIAV US Viavi Solutions Inc , n.a OCLR US Oclaro Inc 9.4 1, n.a.. n.a ACIA US Acacia Communications Inc , n.a TT Elite Advanced Laser Corp n.a TT Truelight Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 n.a n.a. -1. n.a. n.a. n.a TT Luxnet Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1. n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a TT Land Mark Optoelectronics n.a Average HSI Index Hang Seng Index HSCEI Index Hang Seng China Ent Indx SHCOMP Index Shanghai Se Composite MXCN Index Msci China Sources: Company, CGIS Research 4

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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK)

Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) : Hengan International (01044 HK) 中文版 Sunny Kwok 郭日升公司报告 : 恒安国际 (01044 HK) Chinese version +852 2509 2642 sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk Proposed Spin-Off of QinQin 将分拆亲亲食品 GTJA Research 国泰