Xinyi Glass [868.HK] A laggard during recent rally. Maintain BUY. Shares of Xinyi Glass (XYG) rebounded from the tough in mid-nov 216 and in our view,

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意奥隗
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1 信义玻璃 [868.HK] 近日涨幅后落同业 ; 维持买入评级信义玻璃股价已从 216 年 11 月中旬的低位反弹, 我们认为负面因素已被反映, 这些负面因素包括 (a) 市场忧虑中国政府收紧房地产政策将影响来自房地产的下游需求 ;(b) 浮法玻璃价格见顶 ; (c) 天然气价格有机会上涨 ;(d) 获利回吐尽管市场关注下游需求, 浮法玻璃价格势头仍然良好, 中国主要城市的价格在 216 年 12 月底至 217 年 1 月 23 日间仅下跌 1% 主要城市的浮法玻璃价格在年初至今同比上涨了 23.5%% 浮法玻璃价格反弹是由于下游需求改善, 这部分是由于建筑活动稳定所致我们仍然认为, 信义玻璃是中国供给侧改革的主要受益者之一, 因为中国政府可能将公布有关关闭其他能源密集产业产能的目标, 这些产业包括水泥纸有色金属和玻璃在股价表现方面, 香港上市的建材和商品股经过近日的涨势后, 信义玻璃现时落后于同业信义玻璃目前的 216 年市盈率为 8.2 倍, 预测收益率为 6.% 由于价值不贵, 我们维持买入评级, 目标价为 8.69 港元 ( 基于 1.5 倍 216 年市盈率, 低于其历史平均水平及上市同业的平均水平 ) 投资亮点浮法玻璃价格高涨尽管市场担心下游需求, 浮法玻璃价格仍保持高水平, 中国主要城市的浮法玻璃价格在 216 年 12 月底至 217 年 1 月 23 日间仅下跌 1% 至 1,428.7 元人民币每吨目前浮法玻璃主要城市的价格仍较去年同期高 23.5% 我们还注意到, 投产的浮法玻璃生产线数量从 216 年年初的 348 条增加到 216 年 12 月底的 356 条, 但是利用率从 63.2% 提高到 66.3%, 这进一步反映下游需求稳固我们认为浮法玻璃价格的反弹是由于下游需求改善, 这部分是由于建筑活动稳定所致我们正进入建筑活动的淡季 ( 农历新年 ), 因此浮法玻璃价格在短期内或会下降然而, 暂时我们没有看到浮法玻璃价格会在短期内急降的诱因, 因为玻璃行业信心指数自 216 年年底以来一直保持高水平供应侧改革仍然是热门的投资主题由于中国政府即将发布有关 217 年关闭钢铁和煤炭业产能的目标, 短期内商品相关股份的股价表现或会较好行业消息还显示, 中国政府将把关闭产能的措施扩大到其他行业, 包括水泥玻璃铝和航运平均而言, 水泥造纸钢铁和煤炭行业等商品相关股的股价在一个月内上涨了 19.8% 然而, 信义玻璃的表现相对落后 ; 其股价在同期仅上升 13.% 我们认为, 由于信义玻璃的成本优势较同业明显, 加上其业务遍及全国范围, 因此信义玻璃将是供应侧改革的主要受益者公司股价的落后并不合理能源成本的增幅可控考虑到天然气和纯碱的价格上涨, 市场关注公司的利润率会否受压我们同意信义玻璃管理层的观点, 即是公司将受惠于天然气供应商的优惠价格浮法玻璃行业已进入淡季, 因此若天然气价格上涨, 其将是临时性的, 而对公司的影响将是可控的, 预期这不会对公司 217 年的生产成本产生重大影响另外, 自 216 年 11 月以来, 纯碱价格也大幅上涨, 主要由于产能临时关闭纯碱价格的上涨是整个行业均面对的情况, 因此我们预计信义玻璃将把成本上涨的影响转嫁给客户此外, 信义玻璃管理层表示, 公司能够以较低的价格从海外进口纯碱, 因此公司较同业拥有成本优势其他增长领域公司正试图向客户直接销售, 以捕捉中国售后汽车玻璃市场不断增长带来的机遇现时, 中国的售后汽车玻璃市场由信义玻璃和福耀玻璃 [366.HK] 主导, 两者目前都集中于批发市场中国建筑行业 - 建材买入收盘价 : 6.95 港元 (217 年 1 月 26 日 ) 目标价 : 8.69 港元 (+25.%) 股价表现 (HK$) 市值发行在外股数核数师布家杰, CFA 高级分析员亿美元亿股 PricewaterhouseCoo pers 自由流通量 45.2% 52 周交易区间港元三个月日均成交量 217 年 1 月 27 日 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部 (HK$ million) 97 万美元主要股东李贤义 (2.3%) 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部 (852) Key 主要财务指标 Financials ( 百万港元 (in ) HKDm) E 217E Revenue 收入 9, , , , ,571.5 Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %)%) Gross 毛利润 Profit 3,137. 2, , , ,171.8 Gross 毛利润率 Margin (%)% Net 净利润 Profit 3, , , , ,626.2 Net 净利润率 Margin (%) % EPS 每股收益 (Basic) ( 基本 ) Change 变动 ( 同比 (YoY %)%) (61.3) DPS 每股派息 $.24 $.15 $.265 $.418 $.461 markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA 研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk ROE 净资产收益率 (%) (%) Dividend 股息收益率 Yield (%)(%) PER 市盈率 (x) ( 倍 ) PBR 市净率 (x) ( 倍 ) FCF 自由现金流收益率 Yield (%) (%) 1.2% -.67% 3.84% 6.34% 7.94% Capex 资本开支 (m) ( 百万元 ) (3,752.3) (1,729.) (1,967.) (1,7.) (1,5.) Free 每股自由现金流 cash flow per share.1 (.) Net 净负债比率 Gearing (%) (%) Source: 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部 Bloomberg, CGIS Research 1

2 Xinyi Glass [868.HK] A laggard during recent rally. Maintain BUY. Shares of Xinyi Glass (XYG) rebounded from the tough in mid-nov 216 and in our view, the negative factors have been factored in, including (a) concern about downstream demand from property developers in response to tightening policies released by the Chinese government; (b) a peak in the float glass price; (c) a potential natural gas price hike; and (d) profit-taking. Despite concerns about downstream demand, the float glass price has held up well, with the average price in key cities in China down only 1% from end-dec 216 to 23 Jan 217. The YTD average float glass price in key cities has increased 23.5% YoY. The resilience of the float glass price is due to better downstream demand, which is attributable partly to stable construction activity. We maintain the view that XYG is one of the major beneficiaries of supply-side reform in China, given that the Chinese government is likely to release capacity closure targets for other energy-intensive industries, such as cement, paper, non-ferrous metals and glass. In terms of share-price performance, XYG was a laggard compared with other HK-listed building materials and commodities names during the recent rally. We share the view that the float glass upcycle will last longer, given the Chinese government s supply side reforms and the construction cycle. XYG is now trading at an 8.2x 216 PER and an estimated yield of 6.%. With its undemanding valuation, we maintain our BUY call with a target price of HK$8.69 (based on a 1.5x 216E PER, lower than its historical average and the average of its listed peers). Investment Highlights Float glass price holding up well. Despite concern about downstream demand, the float glass price has held up well, with the average float glass price in key cities in China down only 1% from end-dec 216 to RMB1,428.7/tonne on 23 Jan 217. The current float glass price in key cities still represents a YoY increase of 23.5%. We also note that the number of float glass lines commencing production increased from 348 at beginning of 216 to 356 at end-dec 216, but the utilization rate improved from 63.2% to 66.3%, another indication that downstream demand is solid. We maintain the view that the resilience of the float glass price is due to better downstream demand, which is attributable partly to stable construction activity. We are entering the low season (around Chinese New Year) of construction activity so we might see the float glass price come down in the near term. At this stage, however, we don t see a major reason for a sharp fall in the float glass price in the near term, as the Glass Industry Confidence Index has held up well since end-216. Supply-side reform remains a hot investment theme. The share prices of commodity-related names have performed well, given the upcoming release of the Chinese government s 217 targets for capacity closure for the steel and coal industries in the near term. The news flow also suggests that the Chinese government will extend the measures to other industries, including cement, glass, aluminum and shipping. On average, the share prices of listed commodity names, in the cement, paper, steel and coal industries were up 19.8% on a one-month basis. However, XYG is a laggard; its share price was up only 13.% during the same period. We believe that XYG will be a major beneficiary of supply-side reform, given its cost advantage over its peers and its nationwide coverage. XYG s share-price underperformance is not justified. Increase in energy costs manageable. There is concern about potential margin pressure, given the increase in the price of natural gas and soda ash. We share XYG management s view that XYG will enjoy favourable pricing from gas suppliers. The float glass industry has entered the low season, so the impact of a potential natural gas price hike on XYG will be manageable, as it will be temporary and it shouldn t have a significant impact on XYG s production costs in 217 on a full-year basis. Soda ash prices have also gone up significantly since Nov 216 due to temporary capacity closure. The increase in the soda ash price is an industry-wide issue, so we expect XYG to pass on the increase to its customers. Also, XYG management highlighted that the Company can import soda ash from overseas at a lower price, which gives the Company a cost advantage over its peers. Other growth areas. XYG is trying to capture the growth potential of China s growing aftermarket automobile glass segment by offering direct sales to customers. The aftermarket automobile glass segment is now dominated by XYG and Fuyao Glass [366.HK], both of which are presently focusing on the wholesale market. Key Financials (in HKDm) E 217E Revenue 9, , , , ,571.5 Change (YoY %) Gross Profit 3,137. 2, , , ,171.8 Gross Margin % Net Profit 3, , , , ,626.2 Net Margin % EPS (Basic) Change (YoY %) (61.3) DPS $.24 $.15 $.265 $.418 $.461 China Construction Sector - Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (852) markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (852) Building Materials BUY Close: HK$6.95 (Jan 26, 217) Target Price: HK$8.69 (+25.%) Share Price Performance (HK$) Market Cap Shares Outstanding Auditor cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$3,487m 3,554.9m Pricewaterhouse- Coopers Free Float 45.2% 52W range 3M average daily T/O Major Shareholder January 27, 217 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research (HK$ million) HK$ US$9.7m Mr Lee Yin Yee (2.3%) ROE (%) Dividend Yield (%) PER (x) PBR (x) FCF Yield (%) 1.2% -.67% 3.84% 6.34% 7.94% Capex (m) (3,752.3) (1,729.) (1,967.) (1,7.) (1,5.) Free cash flow per share.1 (.) Net Gearing (%) Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 2

3 Figure 1: Key assumptions for XYG F 217F Turnover (HKDm) Automobile glass 3,77.8 3, , , ,62.1 4,357.7 Construction glass 1, , , , , ,285.9 Float glass 3,78.6 4, , ,22.2 6, ,927.9 Total 8,433. 9, , , , ,571.5 Automobile glass Construction glass Float glass Total Volume Automobile (piece) 12,11. 12, , , ,631.3 Construction(sqm) 16, ,38. 2, , ,448.4 Float glass (tonne) 2,927. 3,51. 3, , ,657. Automobile (piece) Construction(sqm) Float glass (tonne) ASP Automobile (HKD/piece) Construction (HKD per sqm) Float glass (HKD per tone) 1, , ,32.2 1, ,487.6 Automobile (HKD/piece) 2.7. Construction (HKD per sqm).1 (4.) 2. Float glass (HKD per tone) (12.6) (3.) Gross margin (%) Automobile glass Construction glass Float glass Blended Net margin (%) Cost (HKDm) S,G&A (1,56.7) (1,25.9) (1,638.) (1,614.5) (1,887.) (2,52.9) Financial Expenses (57.3) (59.7) (38.1) (5.2) (45.4) (62.7) S,G&A (1.4) Financial Expenses 4.2 (36.2) 32. (9.5) 37.9 CAPEX (HKDm) 1, , ,729. 1,967. 1,7. 1,5. Net Gearing (%) Source: Company, CGIS Research 3

4 Figure 2: Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Cash Flow Statement (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Revenue 9,936 1,861 11,46 13,394 14,571 Net Income 3,282 1,227 1,796 2,692 2,98 Growth yoy% 17.8% 9.3% 5.5% 16.9% 8.8% Depreciation & Amort Gross Profit 3,137 2,733 3,133 4,746 5,172 Change in Working Capital 19 (296) 456 (14) (2) Growth yoy% 4.9% (12.9%) 14.6% 51.5% 9.% Cash from Ops. 4,82 1,546 3,18 3,41 3,642 Selling General & Admin Exp. (1,251) (1,638) (1,615) (1,887) (2,53) Capital Expenditure (3,752) (1,729) (1,967) (1,7) (1,5) Others Operating Expenses/Items Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Operating Income 2,212 1,274 1,733 3,111 3,392 Change in Investing Acitivities Growth yoy% n.a. (42.4%) 36.1% 79.5% 9.1% Cash from Investing (3,673) (1,676) (1,927) (1,617) (1,435) Interest Expense (59.7) (38.1) (5.2) (45.4) (62.7) Net increase in bank borrowings Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) Common Dividends Paid (945) (59) (1,43) (1,62) (1,791) Impairment of Goodwill Special Dividend Paid Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest. 1, Other Financing Activities (264) Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Cash from Financing (7) 282 (1,27) (1,552) (1,791) Income Tax Expense (381) (228) (266) (482) (54) Minority Int. in Earnings () (1) (2) (192) (268) Net Change in Cash Net Income Growth yoy% 196.4% (61.3%) 54.8% 55.4% 1.5% Balance Sheet (HKDm) FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F Ratios FY213 FY214 FY215 FY216F FY217F ASSETS Sources: Company, CGIS Research Profitability Cash And Equivalents 1, ,298 1,498 1,915 Return on Assets % 19.7% 6.7% 9.9% 14.5% 14.5% Receivables 2,255 2,487 2,381 2,473 2,688 Return on Capital % 11.6% 5.9% 7.9% 12.3% 11.8% Inventory 1,232 1,478 1,223 1,27 1,38 Return on Equity % 31.8% 11.1% 16.9% 24.% 23.3% Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 4,537 4,85 4,995 5,334 6,76 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 11,849 12,581 13,177 14,548 15,117 Gross Margin % 31.6% 25.2% 27.3% 35.4% 35.5% Long-term Investments SG&A Margin % 12.6% 15.1% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% Other Intangibles EBIT Margin % 22.3% 11.7% 15.1% 23.2% 23.3% Deferred Tax Assets, LT EBITDA Margin % 28.4% 17.4% 21.8% 29.6% 29.7% Other Long-Term Assets 3,265 3,649 3,249 4,41 5,24 Net Income Margin % 35.4% 12.6% 18.4% 24.5% 24.9% Goodwill Accounts Receivable Long-Term Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 15,114 16,229 16,426 18,589 2,142 Total Asset Turnover.5x.5x.5x.6x.6x Total Assets 19,651 21,34 21,422 23,924 26,218 Fixed Asset Turnover.7x.7x.7x.7x.7x Accounts Receivable Turnover 4.5x 4.6x 4.7x 5.5x 5.6x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover 8.1x 7.3x 9.4x 1.5x 1.6x Accounts Payable 1,744 1,978 2,112 2,194 2,384 Accrued Exp Liquidity Short-term Borrowings 2,116 2,529 2,514 2,529 2,529 Current Ratio 1.1x 1.x 1.x 1.1x 1.2x Curr. Port. of LT Debt Quick Ratio.8x.7x.7x.8x.9x Curr. Income Taxes Payable Avg. Days Sales Out Unearned Revenue, Current Avg. Days Inventory Out Other Current Liabilities Avg. Days Payable Out Total Current Liabilities 4,79 4,81 4,959 5,56 5,246 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long-Term Debt 3,24 3,483 3,514 3,832 3,832 Net Debt to Equity 34% 42% 37% 33% 27% Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr Other Non-Current Liabilities Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 7,442 8,699 8,696 9,11 9,31 Total Revenue 17.8% 9.3% 5.5% 16.9% 8.8% Common Stock 7,1 5,94 4,277 5,933 7,768 Net Income 196.4% (61.3%) 54.8% 55.4% 1.5% Additional Paid In Capital Payout Ratio % 26.8% 43.3% 49.4% 49.4% 49.4% Retained Earnings 5,18 6,393 8,442 8,681 8,681 Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Minority Interest Total Equity 12,29 12,335 12,726 14,814 16,917 Total Liabilities And Equity 19,651 21,34 21,422 23,924 26,218 4

5 Oct-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Figure 3: XYG s PER trend HKD x 19x 14x 9x 4x Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates Figure 4: Average float glass price in Key Cities in China RMB/tonne /14 5/14 9/14 1/15 5/15 9/15 1/16 5/16 9/16 1/17 Sources: WIND, CGIS Research 5

6 Figure 5: Peer comparison Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance Price Market Cap 216F 217F 218F 216F 217F 218F F F F F 1M 3M 6M 12M Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % 868 HK Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd HK Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd HK Xinyi Automobile Glass Hong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.6 n.a n.a n.a.. n.a n.a. 33 HK China Glass Holdings Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a..7 n.a. -2. n.a n.a.. n.a HK Luoyang Glass Company Ltd-H n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 n.a. 29. n.a n.a.. n.a HK Fuyao Glass Industry Group-H HK Flat Glass Group Co Ltd-H Average CH Fuyao Glass Industry Group-A n.a CH Csg Holding Co Ltd- A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a CH Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co Lt-A n.a. n.a CH Avic Sanxin Co Ltd-A n.a n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington-A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Luoyang Glass Company Ltd-A n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Average n.a TT Taiwan Glass Ind Corp n.a. 22. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a SISE TI Turk Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari n.a TRKCM TI Trakya Cam Sanayii As n.a APOG US Apogee Enterprises Inc n.a n.a JP Asahi Glass Co Ltd n.a JP Nippon Electric Glass Co Ltd n.a JP Central Glass Co Ltd n.a. n.a JP Nippon Sheet Glass Co Ltd n.a SGO FP Compagnie De Saint Gobain n.a PPG US Ppg Industries Inc GLW US Corning Inc Average HK Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd-H n.a HK China National Building Ma-H HK China Resources Cement n.a HK Bbmg Corp-H n.a HK Asia Cement China Holdings n.a Average HK China Lesso Group Holdings L n.a HK Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd-H n.a HK Aluminum Corp Of China Ltd-H n.a HK China Shenhua Energy Co-H HK China Coal Energy Co-H HK Yanzhou Coal Mining Co-H n.a. n.a HK Angang Steel Co Ltd-H n.a. n.a HK Maanshan Iron & Steel-H n.a HK Nine Dragons Paper Holdings n.a HK Lee & Man Paper Manufacturin n.a HK Shandong Chenming Paper-H n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1. n.a. 6.6 n.a. 2.6 n.a. n.a. n.a Average Sources: Bloomberg, Company, CGIS Research estimates for covered stocks; 6

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79