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1 : ( ),,,,, ;,,,,, :,Romer (1990),,,,,,, Romer (1990) (1990) Nelson (1993),, (Furman et al, 2002 ; Anneloes and Hesen, 2004 ; Cheung and Lin, 2004), Furman et al (2002) OECD 90 %,,,?, GDP, 015 %, 3 %,,,,, : ;,, ;, ;, 3,, : , hust. edu. cn (06&ZD035) 985 (06BJL057),,,, 33

2 :,, ( ) (supply push), (Rosenberg,1974 ; Dosi, 1988) (demand pull), (Judd,1985),, ( ), ( ) ( Geroski and Walters,1995 ; Fatas, 2000 ; Walde and Woitek ; 2004), (Bental and Peled, 1996 ; Francois and Lloyd2Ellis, 2003),, ( Saint2 Paul, 1993) :,,?,,,,,, ( ) ( ) Solow(1956),, 80,, Romer (1990) Romer (1999),, Furman et al (2002) Romer (1999) Porter (1990) Nelson(1993),,, ; Porter (1990) : Faber Hesen (2004) 14,, (innovation trajectory),,,,,, Furman et al (2002), 34

3 Furman et al (2002),,, (USPTO) ( ),,,, ( ) :,,,, 20 % (Mansfield, 1981) 3 (, ), 60 %, 30 %, 12 %,, Windows XP 10, 5,, Windows XP, (,2005),,,,,,,,, ( ) : 11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( Kaufman,1979), , 20 80, 100 %,90 90 %, 90, 60 %,, 20 90, 35

4 :,,,,, (,2003) 21,,,,,, ( Greenstein,1998,2002), ,,, 80,, 1997,, 1998,,, 1999,, , 11 (,2003) ( ) :,, Furman et al (2002) 11?,,,,,,,,, (2002) 20 50,,,, IT,,,, 21, ( Krugman, 1991) Porter (1990),,,, Porter (1990),,,,, Porter (1990),,?,,,,, 36

5 2007 3,,,, ( ),,,,,, Porter (1990),,,, ( ),,,,,,,,, ( ) Porter (1990),,,,,,,,,,, Carr et al (2001) Egger (2006), GDP Ades and Glaeser (1999), GDP Alesina et al (2004), GDP, GDP GDP,,,,GDP,, GDP, :,,, GDP,,,,,, 90,,, Blinder (1975),,, Menchik and David (1983) (,2002),,,, 37

6 :,, ( GDP ) ( GDP ) ( ) GDP,,,GDP,, GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : D = X 1 X 2 X 3 GDP < (1) (1), D, X GDP, (1) GDP, (2) (3), IE IA, IE = D (2) IA = D (3) ( ),,, ( USPTO),,,, ( Furman et al, 2002) USPTO, USPTO,,, USPTO, USPTO USPTO 15 15,,, USPTO, 38

7 , 48 USPTO,, 20, USPTO USPTO,,,,,,,, ( ) 11,,, Lterd Lberd Lgerd GDP, Lgdp ; GDP, Lpgdp ;, Gini ;, Limex ; GDP, imexr ;, Urb ;, Enrol Limex imexr,,lgdp Lpgdp, Gini,,,, (4) Lterd, 0,, X, us, 1,, (4) Lterd = 0 + X + 1 us + (4),, , GINI,,, GINI, GINI, (Li, Squire Zou,1998) , 4 5 6, 7 8 9, Lgdp Lpgdp Gini,,, 9111 % 8619 %, Lgdp Gini, Lpgdp,, 9,Lpgdp t P %, 39

8 : 1, Limex imexr Urb Enrol,,, R 2,,, 1 OLS ( 1 9) ( 10 13) Lterd Lberd Lgerd Lterd Lberd Lgdp (01075) (01142) (01050) (01099) (01187) (01080) (01103) (01195) (01088) (01112) (01118) (01138) ( 01148) Lpgdp (01112) (01111) (01088) (01147) (01146) (01099) (01153) (01153) (01114) (01123) (01123) (01152) ( 01154) Gini (0101) (0101) (01010) (01014) (01014) (01012) (01014) (01014) (01015) (01012) (01017) (01015) ( 01022) Limex (01170) (01223) (01233) imexr (01002) (01002) (01002) Urb (01008) (01008) (01009) (01009) Enrol (01004) (01004) us (01627) (01629) (01002) (01827) (01858) (01864) R DW BP P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P = P7 = : BP, 3 9, 3 9 White DW, % 5 % 1 % 9,, 1 ;, 1 9, 1,, 1 1 9,, 6, GDP 1 %, 1114 % ; GDP 1 %, 0137 % ; 1, 415 % 31,, 1,,, GDP 2, 29, 29 OLS, , 4 GINI 55, GINI, GINI OLS 1 9 ( ), 40

9 ( ) 11,,,, USPTO, Lpatent,, Lgdp Lpgdp Gini Limex imexr Urb Enrol us, 2000 US PTO,, (5) Lpatent, 0,, X,, us 1, USPTO (5) 21 Lpatent = 0 + X + 1 us + (5) , OLS, , , Lgdp Lpgdp Gini, (Limex imexr),,,limex imexr,,limex imexr,,,, FDI,, (Aitken, Harrison, 1999 ; Cheung, Lin, 2003),,, 8216 % Urb Enrol,, Urb Enrol us, R 2, ( Lpgdp, ), Urb Enrol us,, 2, GDP 1 %, % ; GDP 1 %, 0141 % ; 1 %, % ; GINI, 419 % 2000 GINI 4417, GINI 1918,,, 97 % 1990 GINI 3416,,, % 31, GDP 2, 29, 29 OLS, 2 4 5, 29, Lgdp Lpgdp Gini,, 41

10 : 2 2 OLS ( 1 3) imexr, 1 3,, P ( 4 6) :Lpatent Lgdp, imexr Lpgdp 1, imexr Lgdp Lpgdp Gini OLS, 01048, Lgdp 01027, R , imexr 4 Gini Limex imexr Urb (01135) (01200) (01018) (01003) (01011) (01251) (01197) (01018) (01300) (01011) (01124) (01142) (01016) (01003) (01233) (01228) (01024) (01158) (01232) (01024) (01253) (01235) (01018) (01033) , 5 R Enrol 4, 5 (01008) (01008) Lgdp, imexr us (11124) (11113) R imexr, 48,, 29, 3 GINI, : Breusch2Pagan, DW,, % us 1 2, 2 10 % 5 % Gini % 6419 % 4014 % 1519 % % % GINI OLS, 6 4, 6 ( P 01127), ( P ), 48 imexr,, 41 Limex imexr, Urb Enrol, , 2, 42

11 GDP 719 %, GDP 712 %, 1114 %, GDP GDP 2000, 2 2 2, , 8914 %,, , 3311 %, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1990 :, :,,,P ,2002 :,, :,,P51 65,2003 :,,, 22 55,1997 :,,, 389,2000 :,,, ,2002 :, 2 Ades Alberto and Edward Glaeser, 1999, Evidence on Growth, Increasing Returns and the Extent of the Market, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, No. 3, pp Aitken, B. J. and Harrison, A., 1999, Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezula, American Economic Review, 89, pp

12 : Alesina, Alberto Enrico Spolaore, Romain Wacziarg, 2004, Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries, In Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds. ), Handbook of Economic Growth, North2Holland, also see in www. stanford. edu. Anneloes, Jan F. and B. Hesen,2004, Innovation Capabilities of European Nations Cross2national Analyses of Patents and Sales of Product Innovations, Research Policy, 33, pp Bental, B. and Peled, D., 1996, The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies : A Search Theoretic Approach, International Economic Review, 37, Blinder Alan S., 1975, A Model of Inherited Wealth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp Carr David L., James R. Markusen, and Keith E. Maskus, 2001, Estimating the Knowledge2Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise,American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 3, pp Cheung Kui2yin and Ping Lin, 2004, Spillover Effects of FDI on Innovation in China : Evidence from the Provincial Data, China Economic Review, 15, pp Dosi, G., 1988, Sources, Procedures and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, pp Egger Peter, 2006, How Corruption influences Foreign Direct Investment : A Panel Data Study, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 54, no. 2 (Jan 2006), pp Fat s, A., 2000, Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short2run Persistence and Economic Growth, Journal of Economic Growth, 5, Francois,P. and Lloyd2Ellis, H., 2003, Animal Spirits through Creative Destruction, American Economic Review 93 (3) : Furman Jeffrey L., Michael E., Porter and Scott Stern, 2002, The Determinants of National Innovative Capacity, Research Policy, 31, pp Geroski, K. A. and Walters, C. F., 1995, Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle, Economic Journal, Vol. 105, pp Judd, k., 1985, On the Performance of Patents, Econometrca, Vol. 53, pp Kaufman Bruce E., 1979, Scale of Plant Relative to Market Size in U. S. Manufacturing, Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 46, Oct, pp Krugman, P., Geography and Trade, Leuven, Belgium : Leuven University Press. Li, H., L. Squire, and H. Zou, 1998, Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality, Economic Journal, 108 Jan, pp Mansfield E., How Economist See R&D, Harvard Business Review, Nov. 2 Dec. 1981, pp Menchik P. L., M. David, 1983, Income Distribution, Lifetime Savings and Bequests, American Economic Review, pp Romer Paul M., 1990, Endogenous Technological Change, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5,Oct, pp Rosenberg, N., 1974, Science, Invention and Economic Growth, Economic Journal, Vol. 3, pp Saint2Paul, G., 1993, Productivity Growth and the Structure of the Business Cycle, European Economic Review 37, Walde, K. and Woitek, U., 2004, R&D Expenditure in G7 Countries and the Implications for Endogenous Fluctuations and Growth, Economic Letters, 82, A Hypothesis on Effective Demand Size, R&D Expenditure and National Innovation Capacity Fan Hongzhong ( Institute of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology) Abstract :From the angle of view of demand size, it is found that the increase of a country s total income, per capita income, and the size of import and export trade, promotes its R&D expenditure and national innovation capacity, but that the enlargement of income disparity of the country damages. Moreover, income disparity is found to be an important determinant to a country s innovation capacity. Key Words : Effective Demand Size ; Income Disparity ; Innovation Capacity JEL Classification :O310, O320, O ( : ) ( : )

2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,, : y = Af ( k, l) : y, k, l, A, : = - -, ( ), ( ),,,,90,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,

: 3 :,,,,,, : -,,, (,1994,2002) ; (,2003) ; (, 2002) ; (,2005) ; (2006),,,,,, ( TFP, ),,, (,2005 ;,2005),,,,,,,,, 1997, 3, 4 2006 4,,,, TFP (,2003),, 90,,,, 2005,, ;,,,,,, (disembodied),,,, (,2003),,,,,,