::,,,,,,;,,,, (difference2in2difference) : (1) 20 80,,, (2), (Modigliani Cao, 2004) (Kraay, 2000) (3),,,, 100,30 40,, (),, Modigliani Cao (2004)

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1 : 3 : (CHIPS), ,, : ;, ;,35 49,, : ,,, 8 %,20 %, 5815 % 75 %5815 %,,, :,,,;,,,,,,,,, 90,,, 3,,, com ;,, : , edu. cn ;,, hit2u. ac. jp (No , ) (05JA790020) (07JZD0023) (06CJL004) (CHIP), :70,, 11 % 35,3815 %, 20 %,5815 % 117

2 ::,,,,,,;,,,, (difference2in2difference) : (1) 20 80,,, (2), (Modigliani Cao, 2004) (Kraay, 2000) (3),,,, 100,30 40,, (),, Modigliani Cao (2004) ,, Kraay (2000) , Horioka Wan (2007) ( ), :,, ;, ( Kraay, 2000 ;Horioka Wan,2007 ;,2005) Modigliani Cao (2004),, 1998, , 118

3 ,, (2005) , % %Horioka Wan (2007) %,, % Modigliani Cao (2004), %,,,1997, %,,( Kraay,2000) Meng (2003) (2004),,,, (),,,Feldstein (1974), 50 %, King Dicks2Mireaux (1982),,1 25 Diamond Hausman (1984) Samwick (1997) 20 (Munnell, 1974 ; Kotlikoff, 1979 ; Blinder, et al., 1980 ; Venti & Wise, 1990 ;Aso & He,2001), Hubbard (1986), Hubbard (1987),, Gale (1998), 1983,,16, ( ), (),,,, Attanasio (2003a, 2003b), Attanasio (2003a) 1992,,,,35 45, 119

4 :: 1995,,1997 ( 1997 ), :1997 ( ),,, 60 % 90 %, 1997 ( ),15, 20 %, , ( ), 15,,,, 1997 ( ),,,, ( ) () ( + 20 %) () 60 % 90 % + + (( 120) :20 %:1997 ; 4 %,8 %, 11 % 3 % 5815 %,, 1999 (CHIPS) ,,,, %, % ; %, %,, 120

5 ( 1999, ) : , () i,, : T max t - i log C t (1) T T C t E t s. t. (1 + r) t - = i (1 + r) t - + i t = i TR- 1 t = i t = i t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i + A i (2), t, C,, r, E, P, T, TR,A,, (1) : C i = C t TR- 1 E t T- i +1 t = i = ((1 + r) ) t - i C i (1 + r) t - i + T t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i + A i (3) (3) i t : E t - C t E t = 1 - TR- 1 T E t, FE i = (1 + r) t -, i P i = t = i 1 - ((1 1 - T- i +1 + r) ) t - i [ FE i ΠE t + P i ΠE t + A i ΠE t ] (4) t = TR P t (1 + r) t - i, FE i i ; P i i (4), t - i t,,i = t,(4) (1 - )Π(1 - T- t +1 ), () t,,,, 121

6 :: : (1),, (2),,,,(1 - )Π(1 - T - t + 1 ), () (), : SR it = c t + 1 n d n + 1 PW it + X it 1 + it (5), SR it i t PW it i t t d n, X it,,, ; ;, 1 < 0, (5), (6) PW it,, SR ijt j i t SR ijt = c t + 2 n d n + 2 PW ijt + n ( d n PW ijt ) + X ijt 2 + ijt (6), (6) n () , ,1995, , , ,,,,, = 0198, =

7 , , , , () ,,, , probit,,,1995, 1999,018 %0195 %(Meng, 2003) ( %) ( %) () (, %) ( ) ( ) : 21,,,,,, 123

8 :: ,,,,,, 31 : ( ),,,, (, 2004) : SR1 = (- )Π, ; ; 3 ( ) () ( %) SR2 = ( )Π , SR1 2 % , , SR1,17180, SR , ,,,, ,

9 ,, 4 ( %) SR1 () (),(5) (5 1 2 ),,,,,,,,,, (3 4 ),, ;,, 25 29,,, ( PW) ( PE) (AT) 5 6,PW,SR1-0133,PW 100,33 ;SR2-0128, PW,,, SR2,, (Attanasio, 2003a),,, ( Gales, 1998) 125

10 :: 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 SR1 SR2 SR1 SR (9161) (14102) (8158) (11188) (4188) (7187) (4143) (7166) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0129) (0152) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0147) (1100) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1119) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2140) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1107) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Π (PW) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Π (PE) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Π (AT) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0161) ( ) (0149) ( ) (0138) ( ) () (6102) (3148) (3125) (5127) (5107) (5138) (5106) (3165) (2103) (2119) (3104) (3116) (2138) (1194) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (0138) R :1 2 ; t ; % 5 % 1 %(6 ) 126

11 ,PE AT,,,, , , , , (5 7 8 ),, (6) (6), SR1, , SR , , 6,, PW (2) 40 44,Attansio (2003a) 6 (,PW ) (9) (10) (11) (12) SR1 SR2 SR1 SR (4177) (7177) (4134) (7158) Π (PW) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) age - d2 3 PW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) age - d3 3 PW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) age - d4 3 PW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) age - d5 3 PW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) age - d6 3 PW ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Π (PE) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Π (AT) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) R :,5 age - d2 :30 34 ; age - d3 :35 39 ;age - d4 :40 44 ;age - d5 :45 49 ;age - d6 :50 54, 127

12 ::,, ;,,,, (5 2), SR1 SR2,, ;,, 2 ( ) , ,,,, (Feldstein, 1974 ; King & Dicks2Mireaux,1982 ; Samwick, 1997),35 49,,,,,,,,,,, 20 90,,,,, (matching),,,,, 128

13 ,; 1997,,, (2007) (3) (6), : , 20 59,, ;,, ( ( 3 ) ) R- 1 L TW i = {[ ^W i ( s) (1 + g s ) ( s - a) ]Π(1 + r s ) ( s- a) } ( 3 ) s = a i LTW i i a R - 1 ; ^W i ( s) i s ; a ; R ( 60, 55 ) ; g s i s ; r s g r,4 %, 1995,,, ( ), D L Pold i = { ^w ( i, R- 1) x (1 + g s ) ( s - R) Π(1 + r s ) ( s- a) } ( 3 3 ) s = R L Pold i i R D ; x ; D ; 1999, 1,, (2001) 29 46,= 3 3, = 3, 113 % (2007) ( 3 3 ),2007 :, 3,,2005 :, 2,2001 :( ),,2004 :, 4 Aso, Yoshibumi and Lixin He, 2001,Public Pensions and Household Wealth, Economic Review ( Keizai kenkyuu), Attanasio, O. P. and A. Brugiavini, 2003a,Social Security and HouseholdsSaving, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Attanasio, O. P. and S. Rohwedder, 2003b,Pension Wealth and Household Saving : Evidence form Pension Reforms in the United Kingdom, American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 5, ,, 75 %,90 % (2001) 129

14 :: Blinder, A. S., R. H. Gordon and D. E. Wise, 1980,Reconsiding the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security, National Tax Journal, 33, Diamond, P. A. and J. A. Hausman, 1984,Individual Retirement and Savings Behavior, Journal of Public Economics 23, Feldstein, Martin, 1974,Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Formation, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, no. 5 (SeptemberΠOctober), Gale, W. G., 1998,The Effect of Pension on Household Wealth : A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy, Horioka, C. Y. and J. Wan, 2007,The Determinants of Household Saving in China : A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Press. Hubbard, R. Glenn. 1986,Pension Wealth and Individual Saving, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18 (2), May, 167 Hubbard, R. Glenn. 1987,Unceratin Lifetimes, Pensions, and Individual Saving, Pension Economics, Chicago University, Chicago Karry, A., 2000,Household saving in China, World Bank Economic Reviews, Vol 14, No. 3, King, M. A. and L. Dicks Mireaux, 1982,Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle, Economic Journal, Kotlikoff, L., 1979,Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation, American Economic Review, 69 : Meng, X., 2002,Unemployment, Consumption Smoothing, and Precautionary Saving in Urban China, Journal of Comparative Economics 31, Modigliani, F. and S.L. Cao, 2004,The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life2cycle Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 42, No. 1, Munnell, A. H., 1974, The Effect of Social Security on Personal Savings, Cambridge, Mass : Ballinger. Samwick, A., 1997,The Impact of Social Security Reform on Saving, National Tax Association Proceedings, Venti, S. F. and Wise, D. A., 1990,Have IRAs Increased U. S. Saving? Evidence from Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Pension Reform and Household Saving : the Chinese Case He Lixin a, b, Feng Jin b and Sato Hiroshi a (a : School of Economics, Fudan University ; b : Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University) Abstract :This paper estimates the effect of public pension reform on the household saving in urban China and explains the rise of Chinese household saving ratio in middle and late 1990es from a new perspective. The pension reform has caused changes in the pension wealth of the employees in non2public sectors. This exogenous varies of pension wealth are used to identify the effect of pension wealth on household saving ratio. Using data from the urban household income survey of 1995 and 1999, we find that pension wealth has a statistically significant substituting effect on households saving and this effect is to on average. However, the effect varies across different age groups : in the case when the age of the household head is 35 49, the effect is significant, while in other age groups, the effect is not significant. Key Words :Pension Wealth ; Household Saving ; Life Cycle Hypothesis JEL Classification :D12, D91, E21, H55 ( : ) ( : ) 130

% 82. 8% You & Kobayashi % 2007 %

% 82. 8% You & Kobayashi % 2007 % 202 2 * 5. 6 995 2008 0 2008 28% Meng 2003 2000 2009 9. 4% 47% 200 % 2% 20% 50% Gruber & Yelowitz 999 Engen & Gruber 200 Chou et al. 2003 200 200 200 Brown et al. 200 2003 2003 2006 2006 * 00084 wubzh@