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1 3 :, CHIP ,,,, ;,, ;, :,,,,,,,,, 312 %, 5 (,2006),,,,,, (Chinese Household Income Project,CHIP) , ( Khan and Riskin, 1998) Benjamin et al (2005), , ,,,,,???,, 3,, :100875, ( IZA) ;,, :100872, ( IZA), org (CHIP), ( IZA), % 65 7 %, % 9 %( (2005) 427 ), inequality, 85
2 :,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, Slesnick (1991) Culter Katz (1992),,,,,, ;, ( Friedman,1957) (Moligdiani,1950),,,, 1 ( )Π (World Bank,2000), ( CHIP ),,,,,,, Deaton Paxson (1994), (Friedman,1957),, (martingale) (Hall,1978), c i, t +1 = c i, t + i, t +1 (1), i i, t t + 1 t t + 1, t + 1, i t, (1994) (1999) (2008) (2003) Jalan Ravallion(1998) Whalley Yue (2006),Ravallion Chen (2007),,,,,, Deaton (1997),,,Giles Yoo (2007),, 10 %,,Ohtake Sato (1998),, 86
3 ,, var ( c i +1 ) = var ( c i ) + t +1 (2), t + 1 t + 1, i,, var ( c T ) = var ( c 0 ) + T t = 1 t (3) (3), t, ( ),,,,,,,, Deaton Paxson (1995),,,,,,,,,,,, Lam (1992),, Deaton Paxson (1994), Lam (1992),( ), Ohtake Saito (1998) 80, Deaton Paxson (1994), 80, Cai et al. (2007) , Ohtake Saito (1998) ,, Deaton Paxson (1994) 70 80,Deaton Paxson (1994),,, Deaton Paxson (1994), 60 %,,, 90,,,,, Cai et al. (2007), () 87
4 : ( ) CHIP ,,, ;,,,,CHIP, CHIP, ;,, Deaton Paxson (1994),,,, (2003),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (CPI),1988 Brandt Holz (2006) CHIP (1994) (1999) 2002 (2008),, CHIP, CHIP,, Khan Riskin(1998) (1999) (1994) (1999), Khan Riskin(1998) (equivalence scale),,,,qu Zhao (2008) OECD,, Benjamin Brandt Giles(2005) (2008) 88
5 Deaton Paxson ( 1994) 1 Ohtake Saito (1998), 1988, , , CHIP, , 1995 ( ), , ; ,, 2002 ; ; , , , , ,: ,, ( ) Deaton Paxson (1994) Ohtake Saito (1998) Cai et al. (2007),, : v = 1 n n ( c i - gc) 2 (4) i = 1, 309,,, 1 % 99 %,
6 :, c i gc, v (Shorocks,1984) , 2 2, , ,, , , , : , , , ;, , Gustafsson Li (2002) (2008), Cai Chen Zhou (2007),, 1,, 1 n : I = 1 n 2gcn c i - gc, I cv = vπgc, I SDL = n (logc i - loggcg) 2, I GINI = 2 i = 1, gc G n n 2 gc i = 1 i = 1 i ( c i - gc), I THEIL = 1 n n i = 1 c i gc log c i gc,, c i gc (2008),,, (2008),,, 90
7 ,,,,,,,,, 1,, 1,,,, , ,,, ( ) ,,,, 2,, Deaton Paxson (1994) Deaton Paxson (1995),,, 3,,,,,,,, ,,,,,, U :,,, 45 50,,,,,,, 91
8 : 3 ( ) (age effect) (cohort effect) Ohtake Saito (1998),, ; Varln y ( j + k) = J m cohort m m = j 0 K + n age n n = k 0 + e ( j, k) (5),Varln y ( j + k) j k, cohort m m, age n n, m n,, 3, 10,, , , (, 3) , 1. ( n ), ,,, 50,,, 50,,,50, Ohtake Saito (1998), 92
9 ,, m,,, 40, ,, , [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] :, % 5 % 1 % 7 9,,,,, 50 60, 40,, 70,,, 40, 1988,,, 50 60,( ), ; 70,,,,,,, ( ),, Ohtake Saito (1998) Cai et al. (2007), s mt = s 21 t, s 22 t,, s 75 t ; 2 mt = 2 21 t, 2 22 t,, 2 75 t, ; X mt = X 21 t, X 22 t,, X 75 t ; t,,, Var(ln y t ) = V ( s t, 75 2 t, X t ) = s mt 2 mt + m = m = 21 s mt X 2 mt 75 - [ s mt X mt ] 2 (6) m = 21 93
10 :,, , ( s, 2, X), V ( s 2002, , X 2002 ) - V ( s 1988, , X 1988 ) s V ( s 2002, , X 1988 ) - V ( s 1988, , X 1988 ), 2 V ( s 1988, , X 1988 ) - V ( s 1988, , X 1988 ), X V ( s 1988, , X 2002 ) - V ( s 1988, , X 1988 ),, 5 5 ( ) , ,, ,, , 2,,,, ,,, ,, , : = + (7) = + (8) = + + (9) = (10) Cai Chen Zhou(2007), Deaton Paxson (1997) Cai Chen Zhou(2007), 94
11 ,,, ;,,,, 6,,, 6,, Morduch Sicular (2002),,,,,, ( ),, ,, ( 5),,,,,,, [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 95
12 : ( ),,,,, 5 8, :, 8 ( ) ( ) Brandt2Holz,,,,,,,, Brandt2Holz,, (5), Brandt2Holz ( 6) ( 9) 6,,, 50,,,,,, 6 Brandt2Holz,, ( 10), Brandt2Holz, Brandt Holz(2006), CHIP, 96
13 9 Brandt Holz (2004) [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 10 Brandt Holz (2004) ( ) CHIP, ( ),,,,, ,, ;,,,,, 1988,
14 :,, , ;, 60,,,, 12, , : = (11) ,, ,, ;,,,, CHIP,,,,, Cai et al. (2007),, , 50,,50,,, 40,,,,,, , ;,,,, 98
15 ,2008 :,,2003 :, ( ) 2 2, ,2006 :,1994 :,,1999 :, Benjamin, Dwayne, Loren Brandt and John Giles,2005, The Evolution of Income Inequality in Rural China, Economic Development and Cultural Change 53 (4), Cai, Hongbin, Yuyu Chen and Li2An Zhou,2007, Consumption inequality in urban China : , Peking University, unpublished manuscript. Cutler, David and Lawrence Katz,1992, Rising Inequality?Changes in the Distribution of Income and Consumption in the 1980πs, American Economic Review 82 (2), Deaton, Angus, 1992, Understanding Consumption, Cambridge University Press, New York. Deaton, Angus and Christina Paxson,1994, Intertemporal Choice and Inequality, Journal of Political Economy 102 (3), Deaton, Angus and Christina Paxson,1995, Saving, Inequality and Aging : an East Asian Perspective, Asia2Pacific Economic Review 1 (1), Deaton, Angus and Christina Paxson,1997, The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Saving and Inequality, Demography 34 (1), Giles, John and Kyeongwon Yoo,2007, Precautionary Behavior, Migrant Networks and Household Consumption Decisions : An Empirical Analysis Using Household Panel Data from Rural China, Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (3) : Gustafsson, Bjorn and Shi Li,2002, Income Inequality Within and Across Counties in Rural China 1988 and 1995, Journal of Development Economics 69 (1), Hall, Robert,1978, Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle2Permanent Income Hypothesis : Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy 86 (6), Jalan,Jyotsna and Martin Ravallion,1998, Transient Poverty in postreform rural China, Journal of Comparative Economics,26 (2),338 Khan, Azizur Rahman and Carl Riskin,1998, Income Inequality in China : Composition, Distribution and Growth of Household Income, 1988 to 1995, The China Quarterly (154), Morduch, Jonathan and Terry Sicular,2002, Rethinking Inequality Decomposition, with Evidence from Rural China, Economic Journal 112, Ohtake, Fumio and Makoto Saito,1998, Population Aging and Consumption Inequality in Japan, Review of Income and Wealth 44 (3), Qu, Zhaopeng and Zhong Zhao,2008, Urban2Rural Consumption Inequality in China from 1988 to 2002 : Evidence from Quantile Regression Decomposition, IZA, Discussion papers No New York. Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen,2007, Chinaπs (Uneven) Progress against Poverty, Journal of Development Economics 82 (1) : Riskin, Carl, Renwei Zhao and Shi Li,2001, Chinaπs Retreat from Equality : Income Distribution and Economic Transition, Armonk Press, Sicular, Terry, Ximing Yue, Gustafsson and Shi Li,2007, The Urban2Rural Income Gap and Inequality in China, Review of Income and Wealth 53 (1), Slesnick, Denial,1991, The Standard of Living in the United States, Review of Income and Wealth 37 (4), Whalley, John and Ximing Yue,2006, Rural Income Volatility And Inequality in China, NB ER Working Paper World Bank,2000, World Development Report 2000Π2001 : Attacking Poverty, Oxford University Press, New York. Yue, Ximing, Terry Sicular, Li Shi and Bjgrn Gustafsson,2008, Explaining Incomes and Inequality in China, In Bjgrn Gustafsson, Li Shi and Terry Sicular eds., Inequality and Public Policy in China. Cambridge University Press, New York. ( 149 ) 99
16 ,,,,,,,,,,,, 15,13 20,,,,,2008 :, :, UNDP,2005 :, Scott Rozelle,2008, Advance Praise, in Bjorn Gustafsson, Li Shi and Terry Sicular ed., Inequality and Public Policy in China, Cambridge University Press. ( : ) ( : ) ( 99 ) The Effect of Population Aging on Consumption and Income Inequality in Rural China Qu Zhaopeng a, c and Zhao Zhong b, c (a : School of Economics and Business Administration, Beijing Normal University ; b : School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China ;c : Institute for the Study of Labor) Abstract:This paper investigates the relationship between consumption, income inequalities, age and population aging in rural China based on the life cycle model. Using 1988, 1995 and 2002 three waves of rural household surveys in China Household Income Project, we apply analysis of variance and regression decomposition methods to decompose the consumption and income inequalities in rural China into three parts : cohort effect, age effect and population aging effect. The results show that consumption inequality is smaller than income inequality in rural areas, within cohort effect dominates other effects in every period, and population aging only plays a small role on the inequality increasing in rural China. Key Words : Aging ; Lncome ; Consumption ; Inequality ; Life2cycle Theory JEL Classification : I30, J19, D63, O18 ( : ) ( : ) 149
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