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1 World Economic Papers October, 2013 * GDP GDP GDP * @ qq. com

2 GDP GDP GDP 2 GDP GDP 1991 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP 1998 = 100 GDP 2000 GDP GDP GDP GDP 1955 = 100 GDP 2005 GDP

4 2 5 GDP 1 2 1998 2009 GDP GDP GDP 1998 = 100 GDP

3 GDP 4 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP FHFA GDP FHFA = 100 GDP 2000 FHFA FHFA

4 GDP FHFA 6 GDP GDP

5 Meadows et al Drazen and Eckstein 1988 Rhee 1991 Nordhaus 1992 Deaton and Laroque Guilló and Perez-Sebastian 2008 growth drag Meadows et al Nordhaus Nichols 1970 Nichols Solow Nichols Solow

Deaton and Laroque 2001 2003 Guilló and Perez-Sebastian

6 Nichols Rhee 1991 Rhee Leung and Chen 2006 Stone and Ziemba Capozza and Helsley 1989 Brueckner 1990 Tobin 1965 Homburg 1991 OLG Tiróle 1985 OLG Diamond 1965 McCallum 1987 OLG

7 x x * γ X X γ * X X X X t η X X X 1. n 1 t N t = e nt W Z Q W = Z + Q 1 P s L 0 Z = P s L 0 γ P s = P s /P s z = Z /N 2 z = γ P s - n z Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans RCK

8 t r Q Q r Z Z wn r Q r Z w N Z C t t W = r Q Q + wn + r Z Z + Z - C W 1 3 a = r Q a + w + r z + γ P s - r Q z - c - na 4 a = W /N c = C /N U = 0 u c t e nt e -ρt dt ρ > 0 ρ > n H = u c e - ρ - n t + λ 1 r Q a + w + r Z + γ P s - r Q z - c - na + λ 2 γ P s - n z 6 λ 1 λ 2 Hamilton H / c = 0 H / a = - λ 1 r Q = ρ - cu c /u' c c /c H / z = - λ 2 TVC lim t a t λ 1 t = 0 lim z t λ 2 t = 0 u c = c 1 - θ / 1 - θ t θ > 0 ρ - n θ g > 0 7 c /c = 1 /θ r Q - ρ t λ 2 t = λ 2 0 exp - γ P s v - n + λ 1 v /λ 2 v r z v + γ P s v r Q 0 v dv λ 1 λ 2 lim a t λ 1 t = 0 lim z t λ 2 t = 0 t t λ 1 t lim t t t a t exp - r Q ν - n dυ = 0 lim z t exp - γ P s ν - n dv = 0 0 t Y K A H

= - λ 2 TVC lim t a t λ 1 t = 0 lim z t λ 2 t = 0 u c = c 1 - θ / 1 - θ t θ > 0 ρ - n - 1 - θ g > 0 7 c /c = 1 /θ r Q - ρ 10 3 5 7 8 t λ 2 t = λ 2 0 exp - γ P s v - n + λ 1 v

9 H t = P d t L 0 12 P d t g 0 A 0 1 A t = e gt Y K H N F K > 0 F H > 0 F N > 0 F KK < 0 F HH < 0 F NN < 0 Y = F K H AN 13 y = Y / AN k = K / AN h = H y = f k h F K = Y K = h / K /AN = f k f k k h F H = Y H = h / H = f k ANf k h h F N = Y N = ANf k h / N = h - kf k f k k h - hf k h h e gt F K F H F N Y = K α H β AN 1 - α - β 18 α > 0 β > 0α + β < 1 f k = h α k β h Q K r Q F K r = r Q = F K w F N 1 2 Z H 2 r z F H H = P d L 0 = P s L 0 = Z P = P d = P s 3 2 Z = H P = P s 1 2

N = ANf k h / N = h - kf k f k k h - hf k h h e gt 15 16 17 F K F H F N Y = K α H β AN 1 - α - β 18 α > 0 β > 0α + β < 1 f k =

10 h = γ P - n - g h 20 γ P 1 W = K + H a = k + h e gt c = c /e gt k = f k h - c - n + g k 21 k 0 h r = r Q c / c = r - ρ - θg /θ lim t lim t t k + h exp - r υ - n - g dυ = 0 0 t h exp - γ P ν - n - g dv = P 1. Ely Malthus Say Marshall Samuelson fundamental price bubble price Rhee 1991 Tiróle P P P

+ h exp - r υ - n - g dυ = 0 0 t h exp - γ P ν - n - g dv = 0 0 23 20 23 P 1.

11 Nichols 1970 v P t = F L v exp - F K u du dv t t 24 F L 1 F K r 24 F L 16 F H F L F H 16 F L = H Y H = PF L H = Pf k h h t P /P = - f k h h + f k k h 26 K A N P F K = P L 0 + HF H / PL h = 0 h * k = f k - c - n + g k F L 0

16 F H F L F H 16 F L = H Y H = PF L H = Pf k h h 25 0 24 t 15 16 25 P

12 k = 0 c = 0 γ * k 21 t c = k f k - n + g + γ * k + f h h 28 k = 0 c = 0 28 h = 0 k = 0 c = 0 h = / αθ ζ ζ - α 1 - α - β ζ - 29 ζ = ρ + θg = n + g ζ > α + β <

19 22 26-1 / αθ ζ ζ - α 1 - α - β ζ - 29 ζ = ρ + θg = n + g ζ

13 n + g 14 γ Y = 1 - η n h + g + γ k η k + γ P η h γ * P = γ * Y = n + g

14 Nichols c = 0 F * K F * H ρ + θg - n - g 25 P * = F * L / ρ + θg - n - g 32 F * L P * t F * L t t 32 t n + g > 0 n + g n + g > 0 0 P * t = P 0 exp n + g t 33 n + g >

15 n + g > 0 n + g 0 n + g > GDP GDP GDP 2012 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP

16 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP 1 26 GK GN

17 OECD Analytical Database Christensen and Jorgenson OECD Analytical Database U. S. Census Bureau % 1 GP GY GK GN Pool- OLS Fixed Effects Random Effects 1 3 F LM 1 3 HAC residual HAC GY 2 GK 21 GK HAC GK GK 6 GY 5%

57749 132 GY 4. 765382 4. 834897-13. 00252 18. 52153 132 GK 5. 082503 4. 457933-6. 682298 17. 59817 124 GN 0. 946359 0. 435301 0.

18 Fisher-type tests 6 P GY 2 2 GP 1 PO 2 PO 3 PO 4 HAC 5 HAC 6 HAC GY *** ** *** ** * ** GK GN Cons ** ** F LM AR R-squared HAC * ** *** 10% 5% 1% PO HAC HAC F F LM AR 1 1 P

043 ** 1. 273 2. 581 2. 485 1. 901 2. 311 4. 043 ** 1. 891 2. 581 3. 213 1. 901 2. 701 F 0. 274 0. 572 0. 215 LM 0. 554 0. 462 0. 871 AR 1 0.

19 Brueckner J. K Growth Controls and Land Values in an Open City Land Economics Capozza D. R. and R. W. Helsley 1989 The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth Journal of Urban Economics Christensen L. R. and D. W. Jorgenson 1969 The measurement of US real capital input Review of Income and Wealth Deaton A. and G. Laroque 2001 Housing Land Prices and Growth Journal of Economic Growth Diamond P. A National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model American Economic Review Drazen A. and Z. Eckstein 1988 On the Organization of Rural Markets and the Process of Economic Development American Economic Review Guilló M. D. and F. Perez-Sebastian 2008 Reexamining the Role of Land in Economic Growth University of Alicante. Homburg S Interest and Growth in an Economy with Land The Canadian Journal of Economics Leung C. K. Y. and N. K. Chen 2006 Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price A Simple Model Journal of Real Estate Research McCallum B. T The Optimal Inflation Rate in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land in Barnett W. A. and K. J. Singleton eds. New Approaches in Monetary Economics Cambridge Cambridge University Press. Meadows D. H. D. L. Meadows J. Randers and W. W. Behrens 1972 The Limits to Growth New York Universe Books. Nichols D. A Land and Economic Growth American Economic Review Nordhaus W. D Lethal Model The Limits to Growth Revisited Bookings Papers on Economic Activity 2

Jorgenson 1969 The measurement of US real capital input 1929-1967 Review of Income and Wealth 15 4 293-320. Deaton A. and G.

20 Rhee C Dynamic Inefficiency in an Economy with Land The Review of Economic Studies Stone D. and W. T. Ziemba 1993 Land and Stock Prices in Japan The Journal of Economic Perspectives Tiróle J Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations Econometrica Tobin J Money and Economic Growth Econometrica

and W. T. Ziemba 1993 Land and Stock Prices in Japan The Journal of Economic Perspectives 7 3 149-165.

第一部分大国兴衰与人力资源开发

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