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黏库雅喇
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1 TFP Jian et al 1996 Fujita et al 2001 Démurger 2002 Zhang et al 2003 Bertrand Schoar(2003) CEO

2 Difference in Difference Young Qian et al 1997 Qian et al 1998 Jin et al(2005) (2007) Maskin 2000 Blanchard Li et al Jin et al(2005)

3 3 Jones Olken(2005) Bertrand Schoar(2003)

4 (Difference in Difference) 7 4 du 1 0 dt 0 1 git = β0 + β1duit + β2dtit + β3 duit dtit + εit 1 i t g ε β 3 du it = 0 1 β0 + εit dtit = 0, git = β0 + β2 + εit dtit = 1, dif 1 = β2 8 du it = Meyer(1995) 8 ( β 0 + β 2 + ε ) ( β 0 + ε ) it it 4

5 β0 + β1+ εit dtit = 0, git = β0 + β1+ β2 + β3 + εit dtit = 1, dif 2 = β2 + β3 9 dif 2 dif 1= β2 + β3 β2 = β3 du it dt it β 3 β git = β0 + β1duit + β2dtit + β3 duit dtit + ηxit + εit 2 X η t = i = A 80% % B C ( β 0 + β 1 + β 2 + β 3 + εit ) ( β 0 + β 1 + εit )

6 A B C dt it du it 2 dt it i dt it = 0 1 dt it =

7 i dt it 7 i = 1, 2, L, 7 dt it g = α + β du + β dt + β du dt + β log( y ) + β log( inv ) + β log( n + γ + δ ) + ε 3 it 1 it 2 it 3 it it 4 i, t 1 5 it 6 it it it it t = i = 123 y it, GDP g it, 1 2 GDP inv it n it γ it δ it Mankiw γ it + δ it = β Mankiw 18 7

8 du dt du dt log( y ) log( n + γ + δ ) log( inv ) adj (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (1673) (-25.9) (-17.9) (-18.5) (-5.16) (-4.00) (-3.71) ** *** *** *** *** *** *** (2.04) (3.37) (4.11) (4.30) (4.96) (3.46) (3.65) *** *** *** *** *** ** (131) (5.64) (4.16) (4.00) (-5.85) (-2.21) (-1.44) ** * ** *** *** *** *** (2.25) (1.94) (2.58) (4.13) (4.25) (4.32) (4.30) *** ** *** *** *** (3.87) (2.57) (-0.32) (-7.54) (-5.68) (-5.03) *** *** *** *** *** *** (-47.9) (-31.0) (-30.7) (-10.6) (-8.43) (-7.19) *** *** *** *** *** *** (8.96) (8.24) (9.76) (9.11) (6.32) (6.63) 2 R D W Pooled EGLS t *** ** * 1% 5% 10% β 3 = % β 3 = % log( n + 0.1) log( inv) log( y) β 3 5% 1% log( n + 0.1) log( inv) log( y) β

9 du dt (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) ** (2.11) *** (3.25) *** (7.44) ** (2.01) *** (2.85) *** (4.79) (1.65) *** (3.77) *** (3.27) β 3 1% log( y) 1% β 3 1% β β 3 1% β 3 9

10 β 3 1% 0.02 du dt adj (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (-0.06) (-0.82) *** (6.25) *** (7.12) *** (2.91) *** (3.54) *** (5.75) *** (2.96) 2 R D W B 5 du dt adj (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0.97) (0.06) (0.35) * (1.92) (0.73) *** (3.54) ** (2.44) *** (3.70) ** (2.06) 2 R D W β 3 10

11 β 3 3 β 3 10% 1% 3 β β β 3 = % 1 β β 3 β 3 3 β 3 = % β β β β β 3 11

12 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (-9.25) (-4.94) (-2.82) (-5.40) (-4.99) (3.39) (-5.11) (-5.52) du dt du dt log( y ) adj *** *** (-7.90) (-5.38) *** (6.29) *** (6.87) *** (21.1) *** (11.3) *** (5.14) *** (13.9) * (-1.71) *** (2.66) *** (4.92) *** (6.04) (-1.19) *** (6.32) (0.45) *** (9.29) *** (-5.50) *** (6.83) *** (3.65) *** (8.83) (0.20) *** (10.6) *** (6.32) ** (2.06) *** (3.95) *** *** *** ** (3.15) (-2.59) (-3.35) (-2.19) *** (3.01) ** (-2.47) ** (-2.35) *** (10.2) (-0.34) *** (9.72) (-0.36) (-0.63) 2 R D W j j git = α + β1duit + β2dtit + β3duit dtit + β4log( yit 1) + εit j = 1, 2,

13 Démurger, S ,2003 :, , : Bertrand, M., and A., Schoar, 2003, Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118: Blanchard, O.., and A., Shleifer, 2001, Federalism with and without Political Centralization: china vs. Russia in Transitional Economics: How Much Progress? IMF Staff Papers 48: Fujita M. and D., Hu, 2001, Regional Disparity in China : the Effect of Globalization and Economic Liberalization, Annals of Regional Science, 35: Jian Luntian, J., Sachs and A., Warner, 1996, Trends in Regional Inequality in China, China Economic Review, 7: Jin, H., Y. Qian and B. Weingast, 2005, Regional Decentralization and Fiscal Incentives: Federalism, Chinese Style, Journal of Public Economics, 89:

14 22. Jones, B., and B., Olken, 2005, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II, Quarterly Journal of Economics,120: Li, Hongbin, and Li-An Zhou, Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personel Control in China. Journal of Public Economics, 89: Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer and D. Weil, 1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: Maskin, E., Qian, Yingyi, Xu, Chenggang, 2000, Incentives, Information, and Organizational Form, Review of Economic Studies, 67: Meyer, B., 1995, Natural and Quasi-Experients in Economics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2): Qian, Y. and G., Roland,1998, Federalism and the Soft Budget Constrain, American Economic Review, 88: Qian, Y., and B.,Weingast, 1997, Federalism as a commitment to preserving market incentives. Journal of Economic Perspectives,11: Young, A.,2000, The Razor s Edge: Distributions and Incremental Reform in the People s Republic China, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115: Zhang,X. and Zhang K. H., 2003, How Does Globalization Affect Regional Inequality Within a Developing Country? Evidence from China, Journal of Development Studies, 39:

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GDP % See Jin Hehui Qian Yingyi B. R. Weingast Regional Decentralization and Fiscal incentiv

GDP % See Jin Hehui Qian Yingyi B. R. Weingast Regional Decentralization and Fiscal incentiv Peking University Law Journal Vol. 24 No. 4 2012 pp. 782-799 20 * 20 1 1908 2 1949 1978 * 1 5 1977 275 2 10 2009 1 782 09CFX002 83 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1978 GDP 20 90 1993 3 2003 219 4 90% 5 1996 325 6 See Jin