Schumpeter Mensch Freeman Clark Schumpeter Mensch 1975 technological stalemate 2000 Van Dujin 1977 OECD 1992 Freeman 1982 Van

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1 Science Research Management Vol. 32 No. 1 January GDP F204 F A Van Dujin Keynes Keynes INDIA&CHINA

2 Schumpeter Mensch Freeman Clark Schumpeter Mensch 1975 technological stalemate 2000 Van Dujin 1977 OECD 1992 Freeman 1982 Van Dujin 1977 Mensch 1993 Freeman Schumpeter cluster 1 S Kuznets Mansfield Van Dujin 1977 Kuznets Van Dujin Schumpeter Kingston Schumpeter Van Dujin 1977 Keynes Schumpeter

3 1 3 S Rogers Freeman Hirooka Table 1 Relationship between innovation rates and stages of long cycles Van Duijn S Firgue 1 1 Kondratieff cycles and Innovations Diffusion Hirooka

4 Sun Cooper Lu GDP Tan Tan GDP 2 GDP Figure 2 Nominal GDP growth rate before China s reform and opening up Source National Bureau of Statistics of China GDP GDP

5 Figure 3 3 GDP IMF Actual GDP growth rate after China s reform and opening up Source IMF GDP IMF Figure 4 Patent growth rate and GDP growth rate Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C

6 GDP 1986 IMF Figure 5 Patent growth rate and GDP growth rate data in 1986 weeded out Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C GDP IMF Figure 6 Patent growth rate invention patent growth rate and GDP growth rate Source IMF processing according to data from State Intellectual Property Office of P. R. C

7 WTO WTO Figure 7 7 Effects of technological innovation on business cycles in transition economy

8 GDP 1999 IBM Forrester 1 Van Duijn J. J. The long wave in economic life J. De E- 2 Kingston W. Schumpeter Business Cycles and Co - evolu- tion J. Industry & Innovation 3 Kuznets S. Schumpeter's Business Cycles J conomic Review p M conomist p p American E- 4 Mansfield E. Long Waves and Technological Innovation J. American Economic Review p J J. 8 J cycles J 9 Hirooka M. Nonlinear dynamism of innovation and business. Journal of Evolutionary Economics

9 1 9 5 p J. transition J. Strategic Management Journal J J Sun Y. China's national innovation system in transition J. Eurasian Geography and Economics p Cooper A. C. et al. Entrepreneurial strategies new technologies in emerging markets J Blackwell Pub. Malden MA. 14 Lu Q. and W. Lazonick The organization of innovation in a transitional economy business and government in Chinese e- lectronic publishing J. Research Policy p Tan J. Innovation and risk - taking in a transitional economy A comparative study of chinese managers and entrepreneur J s. Journal of Business Venturing p Tan J. and D. Tan Environment - strategy co - evolution and co - alignment A staged model of Chinese SOEs under p J J J J Z J WTO J M The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in the transition economy of China Wu Xiaobo 1 Zhang Chaoqun 2 Dou Wei 3 College of Management Zhejiang University Hangzhou China Abstract The relationship between technological innovations and business cycles in China s transition economy is checked. First existing relevant literature is reviewed to justify the existence of such relationship second statistical data is used to show the characteristics of China s business cycles third both GDP and patents data are adopted to explain the relationship between innovations and business cycles on the basis of the literature fourth the special transition economy of China is taken as a powerful contextual factor and its effects are studied. It is concluded that technological innovation is the very fundamental cause of business cycles but institutional innovation is an important conditional factor. Therefore the recommandations that push forward technological innovation strongly and make institutions keep pace with are made. Key words technological innovation business cycle patent transition

40 COMMEMORATING THE FORTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF REFORM AND OPENING UP ( ) ( ) 20 30 [1] : 2015 1 1 36

40 COMMEMORATING THE FORTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF REFORM AND OPENING UP ( ) ( ) 20 30 [1] : 2015 1 1 36 40 To Judge Key Areas of Reform Node: Supply Side and Demand Side * 40 : 1978~1992 ; 1992~2012 ; 2012 40 % Since the reform and opening up the evolution of supply side and demand side reform policy can