~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

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知谛仇
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1 * Vol. 35 No. 4 July Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the period age - specific fertility rate this paper has proposed an estimation method of the cohort age - specific fertility rate and uses data of the birth cohort of to explain its feasibility and reliability.this method can be applied to analyze the pattern of parity progression and related issues particularly for the adjustment of Chinese family planning policy.using this method this paper has estimated the quantity and structure of women with one child and women who are allowed to have two children by the current family planning policy but have had only one child.this would have implications for family planning policy research. Keywords Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Fertility Level Estimation Methods Authors Wang Guangzhou Researcher Institute of Population and Labor Economics CASS. E - mail wangguangzhou@ 126.com Hu Yaoling Post - doctor Institute of Population and Labor Economics CASS. * YZDA

2 ~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

3 4 5 n j t n j t = j i = 15P n i t i 2 j t = 1 j t - 2 j t = j i = 15P 1 i t - j i = 15P 2 i t t t - Y Y t - Y 5 ~ 10 5 ~ ~ r t Y s r < s < t i r i t i s r t 1 r i t i s i P i s = P i r + s - r t - r P i t - P i r Y P n i s = P n i r + s - r t - r P n i t - P n i r 3. 2 Y - 1 i i + 1 Y i + 1 Y - 1 i i + 1 P Y - 1 i. P Y - 1 i + 1. Y i i + 1 P Y i. P Y i

4 6 35 PY i + 1. P Y i. = PY - 1 i + 1. P Y - 1. PY i + 1. = P Y - 1 i + 1. PY i. P Y - 1 i. Y i + 2 i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1956 stata ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 32 t 1929 ~ 1948 p % 1949 ~ 1956 p ~ 1948 p % 1949 ~ 1956 p ~ 1956 i 1

5 4 7 5 Table 1 1 Method One Test the Difference between the True Value and the Estimates t p t p t p t p Table 2 2 Method Two Test the Difference between the True Value and the Estimates t p t p t p t p ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ b 1929 ~ 1952

6 ± Table 3 3 Method Two The Correlation Coefficient between the True Value and the Estimates Table 4 4 Regression Results of the True Value of Cohort Age - Specific Fertility Rate on Estimated Value % 95%

7 4 9 Figure 1 1 The True Value of Real Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rate and the Estimates

8 Figure 2 Trend of Four Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates ~ ~

9 ~ ~ ~ 1984

10 ~ Figure 3 3 The Changes of Cumulative Age - Specific Fertility Rate of Four Bith Cohorts

4 13 4 Figure 4 1950 ~ 1984 Lifetime Fertility Rate of 1950-1984 Cohort 5.

11 Figure ~ 1984 Lifetime Fertility Rate of Cohort ~ ~ ~ Figure 5 Changes of Women with One Child of Four Birth Cohorts 5. 3

12 % 50% 75% 100% ~ % % % % 24% 32% ~ Table 5 Total New Birth Estimation after Family Planning Policy Adjustment

13 ~ 10 Y - 1 i i + 1 Y i ~ ~ ~ 1956 stata ~ /References ~ 94 United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs Population Division The National Bureau

14 16 35 of Statistics Population Statistics Division translation Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation China Statistics Press ~ 75 Wang Guangzhou Age - specific Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rate Indirect Estimation Method and Applied Research Chinese Journal of Population Science ~ 13 Wang Guangzhou A Study on the Parity Progression Fertility Pattern of Chinese Women Chinese Journal of Population Science ~ 16 Wang Guangzhou Chinese One - child Total Estimated Structure and Future Trends Population Research ~ 64 Yang Shuzhang and Wang Guangzhou An Indirect Estimation Method for the Quantity of Only Child Chinese Journal of Population Science ~ 17 Yang Shuzhang and Guo Zhenwei Chinese One - child Status and Impact of Future Population Development Market & Demographic Analysis Zhou Changhong and Pan Jinhong Measuring Policy Fertility and Actual Fertility in China Chinese Journal of Population Science Yao Xinwu Fertility Data of China. Chinese Population Press Beijing

third in 20 years. The student population will be in the range of million before Keywords education age population family planning

third in 20 years. The student population will be in the range of million before Keywords education age population family planning 2017 6 225 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 6 2017 Tot. No. 225 100028 1982 2015 12849. 16 2035 9114. 74 2015 3700 1 /3 2020 2015 2020 3000 4000 C921 G465 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2017. 06. 008 A 1000-4149