: : : :1996,??,,,,,,,, :,,,,, Goldsmith (1969) 35,, Shaw(1973) Gurley Shaw(1960), Demirg c2 Kunt Levin (2001) 150 (1992)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download ": : : :1996,??,,,,,,,, :,,,,, Goldsmith (1969) 35,, Shaw(1973) Gurley Shaw(1960), Demirg c2 Kunt Levin (2001) 150 (1992)"

胞汾苏
6 years ago
Views:

1 :: : :1996,??,,,,,,,, :,,,,, Goldsmith (1969) 35,, Shaw(1973) Gurley Shaw(1960), Demirg c2 Kunt Levin (2001) 150 (1992) ( Yi,1991),,, ;, (1996) , ( ),,(1996),, ( 3,,: ;,,:100871, com, 4

2 ),, :, Goldsmith (1969), Π,,,, ( IMF), IMF,Goldsmith (1969), Goldsmith,,,,,,,,,,, WTO,,,,,Goldsmith (1969),IMF ;, 1, IMF,,, 1, , Π,,, Demirg c Kunt Levin (2001), 1991, ,,,,, ( GNP) 5

3 :: , (CPI),, 1 (:; %) e (1 + 12) (2 + 7) (36) a (811) f b (1316) c (+ ) :a1 IMF (2000),, 1999,1999,1999 b1 c ;,, d1 e1 f1 : Wind ; ,2007 (2008) ;6 Wind,12 (2008) ; , ;14 15,16 IMF ( IFS) 6

4 ( ) : (1), ,, 10 %( ), ( Π) % %,5 %, 5,, (2), ,191 % %, 4 % ; 1713 % %, 8 % :,20 90, 2001 WTO,,,2006 4,,, %, (3),,,, % %,25 % ; 415 % %,8 % ;112 % 219 %, 6 % (4),,,,, %, %, %, , %,20 90, (5), , 9 %, 3 %,,; (6), 2001, 317 %, % (7) 20 90,,,, Goldsmith(1969) :, 7

5 :: (: %) (2 + 7) , 21 (36) , , , , 71 (811) , (2) , (1 + 12) : (1), 20 90, 17,,, 20 90, 4 % ,,017 % 013 %, 1991, ,,517 %,, (2), %, %, %, , 1118 % 2811 % 514 %, % 8 (3), ,

6 % 2215 %16, 3612 % 918 %, % % 1994,, (4), %, %, (5), 1,;2,, % %, 2006, (DVP) 38151, %, 2006, 1189,17 %( ), 7,, 30 %,30 % 50 %,,,,,, (,2007) Π,, Π ;,, Π, () 3,: (1), %(2) %,; ,818 %(3),, Π,, , Π, Π 9

7 :: (3),, () 3 (:; %) , (4) : (1) , , ; (), (2) (3) , () , % 4 (:; %), (Π ) (4) , ,, %22 % , Π , % Π , , Π , :

8 % 2412 %, %20 % () 5 (5) : (1), %, %(2) %, %,, (; %) (3) %1613 % () : (1) % 6619 %(2) %, % (1996),20 90 (),, , 85 % 3817 %10 %,: (1), 5000,1993, %,,, , 58 %,2007,,2007,1162,5713 %, 11

9 :: % (2),,,,(,1996), 1996, , (Shibor), Shibor,,,, %,,,,(,1992),, 6,, %, %,,,; (3),6 () (:; %),,, , , 2006 ; 2008, ,,, Π :Wind :, :, :,http :ΠΠccnews1people1com1cnΠGBΠ87320Π html 12

10 : (1),,,,2007, 219 %,,,2005,5, 40 %,,2007, 85 %, 2817 % ; 3817 %,11 % (2) (:),, , 317 % 10 % ; 113 % 215 % Π() () 1 ( %) , (7),, 2005, 60113,11, () 4613,72, (GDP ) 217 %,50 (3), :(2007),, 20 90,; 2005, 36 %, : (Bloomburg) ; 13

11 :: %,,:,,,,,?,,, ;,,,,,,, , ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2008,2,2,,,,, 14

12 2008 8,,, :,,2006 :,51,1992 :,11,1996 :,12,2008 :,,CCER 1,2007 :, :,,2007 :(2006), Demirg c2kunt, A1, and R. Levin, 2001, Financial Structure and Economic Growth : A Cross2country Comparison of Banks, Markets, and Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Goldsmith, R. W., 1969, Financial Structure and Development, Yale University Press. Gurley, J1G., and E. S. Shaw, 1960, Money in a Theory of Finance, The Brookings Institution. IMF, 2000, Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual, International Monetary Fund. Shaw, E., 1973, Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press. Yi, G., 1991,The Monetization Process in China During the Economic Reform, China Economic Review, Spring, PP The Evolution of Chinaπs Financial Assets Structure : Yi Gang and Song Wang (China Center for Economic Research, Peking University) Abstract : In 1996, the first author of this essay manifested that financial assets structure of China which was then dominated by indirect financing had led to many problems in the economy. After more than ten years of financial reform, has the financial assets structure been improved? Can the existing financial assets structure accommodate the development of Chinese economy? This paper tries to answer above questions by reanalyzing the current financial structure in China. It is found that the financial asset structure of China has experienced obvious improvement. Meanwhile,the new structure has brought some new problems which ought to be resolved by further improvement of monetary market and capital market. In the coming ten years, the optimal path for the development of Chinaπs financial market is through two2way opening. Key Words :Financial Assets Structure ; Monetization ; Financial Deepening JEL Classification : E44, G20 (: ) (: ) 15

M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠG

M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠG 3 2006 GDP 1017 % (CPI) 115 % 2005 (Pagano 1993 ; King and Levin 1993 ;Rajan and Zingales 1998 ; 2001) (1984) (1989) (1992) (1992) (2005) M2 (1996 1997) (2000) ; (2002) (2006) ( ) 3 ( 06&ZD004-01) 4 2007