2004 1, 1980,21 %, 13 %,, 2002, GDP 34 %(1) 1 GDP 1 20 :,,,, % % % ( ), , , 1162,65 %, ,,

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1 :: : 3 ( ) :, 90,,,,,,,,, GDP :,,, 10,, , GDP 33 % 34 %,12, 1Π3,,,,20,,,,???,,,, : ( ) 3, 1992,90 (, 1992 ),,,,, 4

2 2004 1, 1980,21 %, 13 %,, 2002, GDP 34 %(1) 1 GDP 1 20 :,,,, % % % ( ), , , 1162,65 %, ,, : 0171, ( ) 1, 20,1990,, 2002,,,,, 2 3 GNI GNI,, 2003 GNI, GNIGNI GDP,, 5

3 :: 2 GNI 3 GNI 2,,GNI, 3,,GNI,, ( ) : :,, 6

4 2004 1, , 211, ;, 616 5, 114,, 1,, ,, 4167,,, :, 1. (2000),,,,,,,,, ,, 1993,,,,1993, ,,3 4,, 2. 4,20,

5 :: 3., 2000 GDP 47 %, 61 %, 70 %, 59 %, 61 % ;,2000,, % % % %,, %, ,,, GDP, 2001, 3911 %,1716 %,,, 5., :,, ;,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,, :, ;, ;, 267 ( ) : 2001,GNI, 4 :, L, I, O,,I > O,I - L O,,, 8

6 GNI : 3 5 %; % 4,, GNI,,,,, (2000) GNP,, ,, , ,,, 5 6,,, :, 5,, GNI ;, %,, 63 %( ), %,,50175 % % 7 ( ), %, % 6,, ;,,,, %, %, ,9266 4,, 9

7 :: %,, %,, :, ( Mann2Whitney U Kolmogorov2Smirnov Z ), K- S,,,,,,,,, 5 %, K - S, 1 %,,, 5 M - W U K- S Z vs vs vs vs vs vs :11 ; %, %; , : GNI, ;,GNI,, 10,,GNI 756

8 ( ),,,,,, GDP GDP ( ) :,, GDP 8 GDP 7 8, GDP, GDP 20000,,,, 6, 01035,,, GDP, GDP GDP GDP : 3 5 % ; % ; :, :, GDP,, GDP 20000, 3000, GDP,16838,2000,8153, 1000, 17 GDP 8000 ( ), ( ) : GDP 2002, , 63 %, 21 % ;60 % ; 8418 %,,, 4Π5, 11

9 ::, :GDP ;, ;,;,, (7), 7 GDP R 2 F :11 ;2110 %, 3 5 %, % : : 2002, GDP,,GDP, 1 %,GDP, GDP (9), 9, GDP ,,?,,, 9 GDP %,GDP 2., ;,, 10 % 3., 4., : ( ) 5 10,,, 10,,, 12 1.,

10 2004 1,,,,,,,,,, ; ; 20,,,,,,,,,,,, 2.,,,,,,,,,,, 2,,,, ,,, 5, 8 31,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,, 20,2001 :,,,,, 13

11 :: 4., 90, 60 %,WTO,,,,,,,,,,,,, 51 90,,2002,(,) 13 % ; 5, 63 %,312 ;200 69,14 ; ,4 ; 22 %,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,, WTO,,,,,, 14

12 2004 1,,,,,,2001 :,3,2003 : 2002,,2001 :,,2000 :,,2002 ::, 6,2003 :,,2000 : 90,6,2003 :,, :, Baumol. W.J.,Sue Anne Batey Blackman and Edward N. Wolff,1991, Productivity and American Leadership,The Long View,The MIT Press. Bell. D.,1974, The Coming of Post2industrial Society,Heinemann Educational Books Ltd. Blackaby. F.,1979, De2industrializaiton,Heinemann Educational Books,London. Unviersity. Clark. C.,1960, The Conditions of Economic Progress,Macmillan & Co.Lit,London,pp Falvey. R. E.,Gemmell. N.,1996, Are Services Income Elastic? Some New Evidence,The Review of Income and Welath,No. 3,Sept. Fuchs. V. R.,1968, The Service Economy,Columbia University Press,New York. Gershuny.J.,1978, After Industrial Society? The Emerging Self2Service Economy,Humanities Press. Hermelin,Brita, 1997, Professional Business Services : Conceptual Framework and a Swedish Case Study, Uppsala, Proefschrift Uppsala Kravis. I., Heston. A. W., and Summers. R., 1983, The Share of Services in Economic Growth, in Adams, Hickman ed., Global Econometrics : Essays in Honor of Lawrence R. Klein,MIT Press. Rostow. W.,1960, The Stages of Economic Growth,Cambridge University Press. Summers. R.,1985, Services in the International Economy,in Inmann ed., Managing the Service Economy : Prospects and Problems, Cambridge University Press. Walker. R.,1998, Is There a Service Economy? The Changing Capitalist Division of Labor,in Bryson. J.,and Daniels. P. W., Service Industries in the Global Economy,Vol.,,Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Service Industry and China s Economy : Correlation and Potential of Faster Gro wth Jiang Xiaojuan &Li Hui ( Institute of Finance and Trade Economy, CASS) Abstract : It is a law accepted by us that the proportion of service industry rises with the economic development. In the late 1990 s, China s service industry has stopped the ascending trend beginning from the reform and opening up and kept stable in a low level, which is not consistent with the common law. The reasons include the economic growth mode, economic mechanism, the location and policy of our nation in the global production system and statistic method, etc. This paper reviewed the development and internal structure transformation of china s service industry. From different aspects, based on different types of data, this paper primarily explored the relation of economic growth and service industry development, established a multivariate regression model to analyze the influence of income level and urbanization etc. It is expected that when our country s per capita GDP goes up to a new level, our service industry proportion will rise significantly. At last, the paper brought forward some advises to promote the development of service industry. Key Words :Service Industry ; Correlation ; Potential of Faster Growth JEL Classification :L890,O140 ( : ) (: ) 15

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