FDI [] [ ] F832 A (FDI) FDI FDI FDI FDI 1991 FDI 0.2% % FDI 2002 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI H.Chenery A.M.Str

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1 FDI 1-1 -

2 FDI [] [ ] F832 A (FDI) FDI FDI FDI FDI 1991 FDI 0.2% % FDI 2002 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI H.Chenery A.M.Strout1966 FDI FDI Baran - 2 -

8% FDI 2002 FDI FDI FDI FDI 20 90 20 90 1997

3 1973 FDI May Arena1970 FDI FDI FDI RheeBelot1990 Lipsey2002 FDI FDI (Frankel and Rose, 1996) FDI FDI 0.3 (Lipsey, 1999; 2001) 90 FDI FDI FDI (Kalecki, 1966)FDI (Dooley et. al, 1994) FDI (Reis, 2001) FDI FDI (Woodward, 2003) FDI FDI 16%18% FDI FDI GDP FDI Woodward2001 FDI 1997, 2003 FDI FDI FDI 1998 FDI 2001 FDI FDI 2004 GNP GDP GNP GDP - 3 -

al, 1994) FDI (Reis, 2001) FDI FDI (Woodward, 2003) FDI 20 90 FDI 16%18% FDI FDI GDP

4 2004 FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 5% FDI 1994 FDI 30% % 1992 FDI FDI FDI 90 FDI 16~18% FDI 24~30%

8 252.8 24.1 100 3 139.2 392.0 411.6 39.2 100 4 156.9 568.5 596.9 56.9 100 5 177.

5 FDI 100 FDI 15% 10% 5% FDI FDI 100 FDI 1 FDI FDI FDI p q N FDI N=log(p+q)/p / log(1+q) 1 p=10%q=5% N=log1.5 / log1.05= ~ % % ~

2 5 111.1 613.9 644.6 61.4 49.7 6 111.1 755.7 793.5 75.6 35.5 7 111.1 904.6 949.8 90.5 20.6 8 111.1 1060.9 1113.9 106.1 5.

6 GDP 5% 6.78%5.79% % 1991~ % 1990~ % %1992~ % % FDI ~1996 FDI FDI 1990~1996 FDI 1995~1996 GDP 11~13% FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI FDI 11 UNCTAD FDI % 0.5% - 6 -

41% 19921993 1996 FDI 90 1994~1996 FDI FDI 1990~1996 FDI 1995~1996 GDP 11~13% FDI FDI 20 80 FDI FDI FDI 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

7 0.15% ~2003 FDI 4776 FDI FDI 1FDI FDI , 1993~ % FDI FDI (Reis, 2001) FDI FDI FDI 1993~ % 49.3% - 7 -

FDI 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-32 -54-55 -17 4

8 80% FDI 3 3% 13~14% % %1993~ % (B) (A) A/B(%) ~14% FDI % ~400 5 FDI FDI ~ ~

2 441.7 446.5 3205.8 (A) -12.8-10.4-117.7-124.4-159.2-166.4-179.7-146.7-191.7-149.5-78.4 1331.9 A/B(%) - 14.27 65.21 63.66 34.44 35.

9 1. FDI GDP 1% FDI 12 FDI 3. FDI FDI GDP GNP FDI FDI % 0.15% - 9 -

10 [1] [M] 2001 [2] FDI [J] 1998 (3) [3] [J] 2003 (9) [4] [J] 1997 (10) [5] [J] 2003, (9-10)5-11 [6] GNP GDP [J] 2004 (3) [7] [J]

18-23 [5] [J] 2003, (9-10)5-11 [6] GNP GDP

11 [8] Kalecki, Michal and Sachs,I., 1966: Forms of Foreign Aid: An Economic Analysis, Reprinted in Collected Works of Michal Kalecki. Vol. V. Developing economies. Ed. By Jerzy Osiatynski. Transl. by Chester Adam Kisiel. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993, pp [9] Dooley, Michael, Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, and Kenneth Kletzer. Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?[R]. NBER Working Paper, No.4792 [10] Frankel, J. A. and Rose, A. K.. Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators[R]. NBER Working Paper, No [11] Lipsey, R. E.. Foreign Direct Investment in Three Financial Crises[R]. NBER Working Paper, No [12] Osiatynski, J.. The Collective Works of Michal Kalecki Volume V: Developing Economics[M], Ox-ford, [13] Reis, A. B.. On the Welfare Effects of Foreign Investment[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2001, (54), pp [14] Woodward, D.. The Next Crisis? Direct and Equity Investment in Developing Countries[M]. Zed Books, New York, Theoretic and Empirical Analysis on the FDI Profits remitting and Potent Balance of Payments Crisis DUAN -Junshan MAO -Zhonggen School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai School of business, Nanjing University, Nanjing Abstract: It is generally to be thought that the foreign direct investment (FDI) is a kind of high-quality foreign capital, and it does much good to the host country economy developing, so promoting FDI the more the better. However, the research discovers the remittance of FDI income would bring much pressure to the current account balance in the host country, then may result in balance of payments crisis. The experience of the several financial crisis also confirmed this standpoint. There is potent risk in the current situation of China, so need to pay attention to it. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment Income; Current Account Deficit; Balance of Payments Crisis

Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Is the Debt Crisis History?[R]. NBER Working Paper, 1994. No.4792 [10] Frankel, J. A. and Rose, A. K.

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2001.3~2003.4 1 2 3 ABSTRACT Key words: WTO Accession, Sino-US Trade Relations, Foreign Trade Strategies 4 5 6 ...9... 16... 16... 21... 25... 29... 32... 37... 37... 42... 45... 49... 53... 53... 61...