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1 3 ( ) ( TFP) TFP, ( GDP) TFP ; OLS Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data ( GMM), TFP, TFP, TFP TFP,,, (TFP), Chow and Lin(2002) (2003), TFP TFP, TFP Young(1995) TFP Easterly and Levine (2001), TFP Prescott (1998), TFP TFP Bernard and Jones (1996) OECD TFP ;Miller and Upadhyay(2002) TFP,, TFP,, TFP TFP TFP, TFP, TFP OLS Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data ( GMM) TFP, ( GDP), TFP , Jonathan Temple Steve Dowrick, 19

2 ,, ; TFP, TFP 13 % 1619 %, 418 % 713 %, TFP ( ), ;, TFP TFP, TFP, ( ) TFP TFP, Hall and Jones (1999) Bils and Klenow(2000), Cobb2Douglas, Y i = K i ( A i H i ) 1- (1) i Y i, K i H i A i A i TFP, E i, H i H i = e <( E i ) L i (2) < ( E i ), < ( E i ) f (0) = 0, E = 0, H = e <(0) L = L, y = YΠL, h = HΠL, Hall and Jones(1999), y i = A i K Y 1- i h i (3) TFP TFP GDP, 28,,,, GDP , , GDP, 1978, 1978, (2004) , ,1996 ( ), ( ), ( )

3 2002 (2004) a 014,, , , ,, ( ), , (2),, George Psacharopoulos, Psacharopoulos (1994) Psacharopoulos et al (2004), , 01151,, <( E), , , ,,,,, ( ) TFP (3) TFP, TFP 519 % 1984, 1213 % ; , 10 % TFP,, %, %, %, TFP, TFP TFP,,2002, 10 % TFP 2002, 2002 TFP,,TFP, TFP, Hall and Jones(1999), (3) 2002, 1215, ln h = 0118 (6) (6) (015) = 1196 (2003) TFP 21

4 TFP 1, 1, 1,,TFP,, 18 % 65 %, TFP 7 %, TFP, 76 %, %, 1122, 80 %, 24 % TFP, TFP,, TFP (Counterfactual), TFP, 95 % ; TFP,, 8, KΠY 22 ( KΠY 100 ),, TFP ( ) 1, TFP YΠL ( KΠY) Π1 - HΠL A YΠL , ;2, X X i = (3),, K Y 1- i, 01885, 01743, 01107, TFP TFP, TFP Klenow and Rodriguez2Clare (1997) h i (4) ln y i = lna i + ln X i (5) ln y lna,, 22

5 var (ln y) var (ln y) = cov(ln y,lna) var (ln y) + cov(ln y,ln X) var (ln y) = 1 (6) ln X lna ln y, 1, X TFP cov(ln y,lna) Πvar (ln y) cov(ln y,ln X) Πvar (ln y) X (4), , TFP, % %, 75 %, 25 % TFP, TFP,? TFP?, ( ) TFP 2 2 ( ) 2 2, 2, 2 2 2, g c ln y 0 g = c + ln y 0 +, ln y 0 2 2,,, 2, 2,, 2, 2 ( ) ( ),, 2 %,,,, 2 % 35, 2 %,35 ( ) Quah(1996) 23

6 70Π (Romer,2001, p25) TFP Panel Data, Miller and Upadhyay(2002),, x, ( ), g = c + ln y 0 + x +, x, Panel Data,, x x, FDI Dynamic Panel Data GMM System GMM, Caselli et al (1996) Bond et al (2001),, Panel Data, Dynamics Panel Data GMM,, Panel Data,, Islam (1995) 5,Rivera and Currais(2004) 4, 5, , , , , ,ln y it lna it, i = 1, 2,,28, t = 1,2,,5, ln y i2 i ln y,lna TFP ( ) 2 2 2( a) ln y 2( b) lna TFP 2 2 (a), 2, , 2, 2 (b) TFP, TFP , lna 1990,, Miller and Upadhyay(2002) Panel Data, 24

7 2 (a) 2 (b), TFP,, 2,,, 2,, TFP 2, (ln y 5 - ln y 1 )Π16 = + y ln y 1 + (7) (lna 5 - lna 1 )Π16 = + A lna 1 + (8) t = 5 t = , 16, 16 Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) 3 = 16 = - (1 - e - ) TFP,OLS y (01004) (01005) (01012) (01016) gr s1e1e Implied A (01006) (01008) (01015) (01017) gr s1e1e Implied (7) (8) OLS, (9), = 16 ; % 33 5 % % ;3 TFP P , 10 % (9) 3 (7) (8) OLS,,,, 019 % TFP,, 10 %, 112 %,TFP, 10 % ( P ) 2,, TFP 1 %,, ( ) Panel Data d (ln y t ) = ln y t - ln y t - 1 = + y ln y t - 1 d (lna t ) = lna t - lna t - 1 = + A lna t t (10) + t (11) t = 1, 2 5, 25

8 = - (1 - e - ) (12),, ( Wooldridge, 2002), Islam (1995),Miller and Upadhyay (2002),, Panel Data, Panel Data,, Miller and Upadhyay(2002) 4 4 TFP,Panel Data, y (01062) (01149) (01080) (01099) gr s1e1e Implied A (01083) (01093) (01245) (01168) gr s1e1e Implied (10) (11) Panel Data, ; 2 (12), = 4 ( 4 ) ; % 33 5 % %, 5 %, TFP, TFP 418 %, 1416,TFP 1619 %, 411 ( ) Dynamic Panel Data GMM(22Step) Panel Data,, Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) Islam(1995) Caselli et al (1996) Bond et al (2001), d (ln y t ) = ln y t - ln y t - 1 = y ln y t ln s t + ln ( n + g + d) t + t (13) s t ( ) ( n + g + d) t ( + + ), s t ( + )ΠGDP, n t, g + d 0105, s t ( n + g + d) t s t n t, lna t (13) ln y t TFP d (lna t ) = lna t - lna t - 1 = A lna t - 1, s t ( n + g + d) t (13) + ln s t + ln ( n + g + d) t + t (14) Y i = K i ( A i H i ) 1 -, ( K H) ( K H L), Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) I Solow, 26

9 II Augmented Solow, (13) (14) I (7),, Solow K H Augmented Solow K H L,,, TFP,, Dynamic Panel Data GMM Bond et al (2001), (13) (14),, (13) ln y t - 2,ln s t - 2,ln ( n + g + d) t - 2, (14) lna t - 2, ln s t - 2,ln ( n + g + d) t TFP,Dynamic Panel Data GMM(22Step) y (01077) (010870) (01069) (01098) lns t (01320) (01370) (01758) (01367) ln( n + g + d) t (01195) (01297) (01369) (01200) s1e1e Sargan Statistic P2Value Implied A (01126) (01122) (01171) (01099) lns t (01480) (01467) (01549) (01559) ln( n + g + d) t (01372) (01396) (01452) (01208) s1e1e Sargan Statistic P2Value Implied (13) (14) Dynamic Panel Data GMM(22Step),, ( Eviews 510) ;2 (13) ln y t - 2,lns t - 2,ln ( n + g + d) t - 2, (14) lna t - 2,lns t - 2,ln ( n + g + d) t - 2 ;3 (12), = 4 ( 4 ) ; % 33 5 % % ;5 Sargan Null Hypothesis ;6 TFP P , 10 % 5, Dynamic Panel Data GMM Panel Data, TFP ( TFP P , 10 % ), TFP 713 %, 916, TFP 13 %, 514, TFP TFP, TFP,TFP, TFP 27

10 TFP, TFP, Cobb2Douglas, TFP, TFP, TFP, OLS Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data ( GMM) TFP TFP, Panel Data Dynamic Panel Data GMM,TFP, TFP 1310 % 1619 %, 418 % 713 % Miller and Upadhyay(2002) 83 TFP, TFP, TFP TFP, TFP, TFP, TFP, ( TFP 1013 %, 10 % ),,, ( 112 %),,, OECD ( 2 %), Barro (1991) Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) Islam(1995) TFP, TFP, Romer (1986) Lucas (1988),, ( Infrastructure) ( Hall and Jones, 1999) (Acemoglu et al,2004) (Barro et al,2003), (2003), TFP,2003, 8, , 2, , 10 Acemoglu, D1, S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2004, Institutions As the Fundamental Cause of Long2Run Growth, NBER Working Paper, No. w Barro, R., 1991, Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), pp Barro, R. and M. McCleary, 2003, Religion and Economic Growth, Harvard University Working Paper. Bernard, A. and C. Jones, 1996, Comparing Apples to Oranges Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries, American Economic Review, 86(5), pp Oxford. Bils, M. and P. Klenow, 2000, Does Schooling Cause Growth? American Economic Review, 90(5), pp Bond, S., A. Hoeffler, and J. Temple, 2001, GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models, Unpublished Working Paper, University of Caselli, F., G. Esquivel and F. Lefort, 1996, Reopening the Convergence Debate A New Look at Cross2Country Growth Empirics, 28

11 Journal of Economic Growth, 1, pp Chow, G. and A. Lin, 2002, Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China A Comparative Analysis, Journal of Comparative Economics, 30(3), pp Easterly, W. and R. Levine, 2001, Itπs Not Factor Accumulation Stylized Facts and Growth Models, World Bank Economic Review 15 (2), pp Hall, R. and C. Jones, 1999, Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114 (1), pp Islam, N., 1995, Growth Empirics A Panel Data Approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (4), pp Klenow, P. and A. Rodriguez2Clare, 1997, The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics Has It Gone Too Far? in Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, eds., NB ER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, pp Cambridge, MA MIT Press. Lucas, R., 1988, On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), pp Mankiw, G., D. Romer, and D. Weil, 1992, A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (2), pp Miller, S. and M. Upadhyay, 2002, Total Factor Productivity and the Convergence Hypothesis, Journal of Macroeconomics, 24, pp. 267 Prescott, E., 1998, Needed A Theory of Total Factor Productivity, International Economic Review, 39, pp Psacharopoulos, G., 1994, Returns to Investment in Education A Global Update, World Development, 22(9), pp and A. Patrinos, 2004, Returns to Investment in Education A Further Update, Education Economics, 12(2), pp Quah, D., 1996, Twin Peaks Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics, Economic Journal, 106, pp Rivera, B. and L. Currais, 2004, Public Health Capital and Productivity in the Spanish Regions A Dynamic Panel Data Model, World Development, 32(5), pp Romer, D., 2001, Advanced Macroeconomics, New York, NY McGraw2HillΠIrwin. Romer, P., 1986, Increasing Returns and Long2Run Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp Wooldridge, J., 2002, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, MA MIT Press. Young, A., 1995, The Tyranny of Numbers Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (3), pp The Disparity of Income, TFP and the Convergence Hypothesis in Chinese Provinces Peng Guohua (Lingnan College, Sun Yat2Sen University) Abstract We study the convergence of total factor productivity(tfp) in Chinese provinces during and compare it with the mode of income( GDP per labor) convergence. On the accounting basis our analysis shows that the differences in TFP can explain the bulk of income disparity. OLS, Panel Data fixed2effect and Dynamic Panel Data first2differenced GMM estimated methods support both conditional convergence of TFP and income while the speed of TFP is much faster than that of income. Only the east region has club2convergence. Further more, the Chinese provincial convergence modes of TFP and income are very similar to those of cross2country. Key Words Total Factor Productivity( TFP) ; Income Disparity ; Convergence JEL Classification O180, O470, C330 ( ) ( ) 29

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