United Nations ~ ~ % 2010

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1 Vol. 42 No. 3 May Population Research % ~ 4% 10% 60 + <3.5% % 60 + < 10% % The Inversion Pattern of Urban and Rural Ageing Universality and Periodicity Lin Bao Abstract Based on the urban-rural data by age and sex released by the United Nations in 2014 It is found that the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion of population ageing is universal.there are clear developmental stages for the differences between urban and rural population ageing with two turning points when the proportion of population aged 60 + reaches 3% ~ 4% and 10%.In the first stage the proportion of population aged 60 + is less than 3.5% the urban-rural difference increases by percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.in the second stage the proportion of population aged 60 + is between 3.5% and 10% the urban-rural difference is reduced by percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.in the third stage the urbanrural difference increases by percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.combined with theoretical analyses this paper proposes a revised urban-rural differences transition model explaining the inversion pattern of urban-rural ageing in most of the world s countries and regions. Keywords Population Ageing Urban-Rural Differences Urban-Rural Inversion Author Lin Bao is Professor Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences linbao@ cass.org.cn.

2 United Nations ~ ~ % 2010

3 % % ~ ~ % ~ ~ % % 1980 ~ 2015 Table ~ Urban-Rural Differences of the Proportion of Population Aged 60 and Over in World s Countries D % % D< D <D< D< D D United Nations 2014.Urban and Rural Population by Age and Sex http / / /en /development /desa /population /publications /dataset /urban / urbanandruralpopulationbyageandsex.shtml ~ ~ 2015

4 Table 2 2 Urban and Rural Population Ageing in Countries at Different Development Level 60 + % 65 + %

5 42 42 United Nations ~ ± ~ ~ % 10 10% ~ 20% 20% 60 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 10% 10% 10% % % 60 10% 10% 5% 0 ~ 10% 0 ~ 10% 60 3% ~ 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% % ~ 4% 3% 4% 1 3% 6% 7% ~ 9%

6 3 43 Table ~ 2015 Correlation Coefficients between Population Ageing Level and Its Urban-rural Difference in Different Ageing Stages % 5% ** ** % ** ** * * 10% 10% ** ** ** ** 10% ** ** % 15% * ** ** 15% * 20% 20% ** ** ** ** 20% % 25% ** ** ** ** 25% * α = 0.05 ** α = ~ % Table 4 Correlation Coefficients between Population Ageing Level and Its Urban-Rural Difference When Proportion of Population 60 + is under 10% % 3% ** ** * % ~ 10% ** ** ** ** 4% 4% ** ** ** ** 4% ~ 10% ** ** ** ** 5% 5% ** ** % ~ 10% ** * ** ** 6% 6% % ~ 10% * α = 0.05 ** α =

7 ~ % ~ 4% 60 10% 60 10% 3 r r = f 1 r t r u = f 2 r t D = r r -r u = f 1 r t -f 2 r t r r r u r t f 1 f 2 D 1 2 f 1 f 2 United Nations ~ 2015 ±15 3% ~ 4% 10% % 10%

8 3 45 R Figure 1 Scatter Plot on Relationship between the Proportion of Total Population Aged 60 + and the Proportion of Rural Population Aged Figure 2 Scatter Plot on Relationship between the Proportion of Total Population Aged 60 + and the Proportion of Urban Population Aged

9 Table 5 Regression Analysis on the Relationship between Total Population Ageing Level and Urban and Rural Population Ageing Level *** *** *** *** R F N *** α = r r = r t r u = r t 4 5 D = r r -r u = r t r t D = r t % ~ 4% 10% % 10% 3.5% 3.5% ~ 10% % % 10% % % % 10% %

10 3 47 Table 6 6 Segmental Regression Analysis on the Relationship between Total Population Ageing Level and Urban and Rural Population Ageing Level * *** ** *** <3.5% *** *** % ~ 10% *** *** % *** *** R F N * α = 0.05 ** α = 0.01 *** α = { r t 60 <3.5% r r = r t 3.5% 60 <10% r t 60 10% 7 { r t 60 <3.5% r u = r t 3.5% 60 <10% r t 60 10% 8 { r t 60 <3.5% D = r t 3.5% 60 <10% r t 60 10% % % 10% %

11 % United Nations ~ % ~ 11% 57.40%22 30% ~ 70%

12 % % ~ 4% 60 10% United Nations % 1980 ~ % ~ 4% 60 10% ~ % 33% 60

13 % 10% 20% /References ~ 10 Du Peng and Wang Wulin.2010.The Difference of Urban and Rural Ageing and Its Transition.Population Research ~ 158 Li Hui and Wang Yingjie Study on the Inverted Phenomenon of Urban and Rural Population Ageing in China. Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition ~ 81 Lin Bao.2015.Population Ageing in Rural China Trends Impacts and Policy Responses.West Forum Lin Bao.2014.Population Ageing and the Sustainability of Urban Basic Old-age Insurance.China Social Sciences Press Tong Yufen Wang Jingwen Qiu Yang and Shen Yanan.2014.The Impact Mechanism of Urbanization on the Ageing of Urban and Rural Population in China.Guangxi Social Sciences Sun Juanjuan and Ji Yun.2017.The Influence of Floating Population on the Urban and Rural Population Ageing in Different Regions.China Population News January ~ 50 Zhang Juwei.2000.Urban-Rural Disparity in China s Population Transition and Its Policy Options.Chinese Journal of Population Science 4 46~ 50 8 United Nations 2014.Urban and Rural Population by Age and Sex http / / /en /development /desa / population / publications / dataset / urban / urban And Rural Population By Age And Sex.shtml

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the