M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠG

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1 GDP 1017 % (CPI) 115 % 2005 (Pagano 1993 ; King and Levin 1993 ;Rajan and Zingales 1998 ; 2001) (1984) (1989) (1992) (1992) (2005) M2 ( ) (2000) ; (2002) (2006) ( ) 3 ( 06&ZD004-01) 4

2 M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ( 2007) (1) ; (2) M2ΠGDP ; (3) ( ) ( ) 1994 M2ΠGDP ; ; ; ; ( ) ( ) 5

3 ; (M2) 3416 GDP 191 % 166 % (M2/ GDP) GDP 2006 M2 GDP 1166 (M2) 2 GDP % % 112 ; GDP 3613 % % 1 ( M2ΠGDP) M2 GDP ; IMF2IFS GDP 3 6

4 GDP (M2) 30 GDP ( %) M2ΠGDP ( ) 5 (CPI ) ( 4) IMF2IFS ( 1995 ( ) (1998 ) ; 6 IMF2IFS ( 6)

5 ( ) ; % 40 % ; ; ; ;

6 ; ; M2ΠGDP ; M2/ GDP GDP M2ΠGDP 1995 ( 1) Y ( t) K( t) ( ) Y ( t) = A ( t) K( t) (1) A ( t) t D ( t) D ( t) = Y ( t - 1) i ( t) M ( t) 9

7 M ( t) = A ( t) P( t) K( t) = P( t) Y ( t) (2) (2) M ( t) P( t) D = D 1 + D 2 D ( t) = Y ( t - 1) (3) D ( t + 1) = Y ( t) + D 2 ( t + 1) (3) Y ( t) = D 2 ( t + 1) (4) (4) y ( t) - y ( t - 1) = d 2 ( t + 1) - d 2 ( t) (5) g ( t) = y ( t) - y ( t - 1) (5) ( t) d 2 ( t + 1) - d 2 ( t) = + ( t) ( ) > 0 ( t) g ( t) = + ( t) (6) t P( t + 1) Y ( t) = (1 + x ( t) ) (1 + i ( t) ) K( t) (7) x ( t) ( ) (7) (1) a ( t) = r( t) + ( t) - p ( t) (8) (8) h ( t) = ln H( t) r ( t) = ln (1 + i ( t) ) ( t) = ln (1 + x ( t) ) a ( t) = ln Y ( t) K( t) ( a ( t) ) t a ( t) = a 0 + g ( t - 1) (9) g (0 1) (9) (8) ( t) = a 0 + g ( t - 1) - r( t) + p ( t) (10) (2) p ( t) = m ( t) - g ( t) (11) (6) (10) (11) g ( t) = g ( t - 1) + + ( a 0 - r( t) ) + p ( t) = 1 + g ( t - 1) ( a 0 - r( t) + m ( t) ) (12) g = (1 - ) (1 - ) ( a 0 - r( t) + m ( t) ) (13) (13) a 0 r ( t) ( ) m ( t) 10

8 (12) r( t) m ( t) > 0 0 < < 1 5 g 5 g 5 2 g 5 2 g = - < 0 = > 0 5 r( t) 1 + (1 - ) 5 m ( t) 1 + (1 - ) 5 r( t) 2 = 5 m ( t) 2 = 0 (14) (14) ( ) 0 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 80 ) 90 ( ) ( ) (1) r ( t) ; (2) R ( t) e p ( t) e P( t + 1) = - 1 P ( t + 1) e t + 1 P ( t) P( t) t p ( t) e t r( t) = R ( t) = p ( t) e r t p ( t) 0 ( p ( t) e ) ( p ( t) 0 ) ( ) 11

9 p ( t) e + m ( ) r ( t) = R ( t) = p ( t) e + m ( m ) ( p ( t) 0 ) ( 1988 ) ( ) e = EP f ΠP d ( E P d P f ) e P f E P d ( p ( t) 0 ) ;

10 (1) ; (2) ; (3) (1) (2) M2ΠGDP (3) M2 ( ) M2ΠGDP ; 13

11 ; ( ) ( ) 2005 M2ΠGDP r ( t) = R ( t) + p ( t) e + m ( r ( t) ) M2ΠGDP 14

12 (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; M2 GDP M2ΠGDP M2ΠGDP 11 M2ΠGDP - ( )

13 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ; ; 41 ( ) M2ΠGDP 10 16

14 ( ) 2006 M2ΠGDP M2ΠGDP( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2001 ( ) M2ΠGDP M2ΠGD M2 GDP ( ) King R. and R. Levine 1993 Finance and Growth Schumpter May Be Right Quarterly Journal of Ecomomics 108 (3) pp Pagano M Financial Markets and Growth An Overview European Economic Review 37(2 3) pp Rajan R. and L. Zingales 1998 Finance Dependence and Growth American Economic Review 88(3) pp Financial Development and Economic Growth Research Group ( Institute of Economics CASS) Abstract Based on the review of China s financial system and combined with the discussion of how to coordinate between credit expansion and inflation in the open economy this paper by employing the credit expansion model on the basis of learning by doing reveals the special institutional arrangement regarding monetary and financial policy during China s high2speed economic growth. This paper holds that this kind of institutional arrangement can effectively explain China s high2rate economic growth and low2rate inflation in its transition. The paper also points out the cost and risk of this kind of institutional arrangement and puts forwards some proposals on how to transform from mobilizational finance to marketizational finance. Key Words Financial Development ; Economics ; Financial Market JEL Classification G18 O49 P29 ( ) ( ) 17

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