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灶欠恢束
5 years ago
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1 Company Research Company update Sound Global Ltd (967 HK) Operating data on track We attended SGL s conference call on 10 December. We believe the company is on track to delivering solid operating results with EPC's order book accumulated to over RMB 6bn while O&M capacity to increase over 1mtpd by end-fy14. Going forward the company would put more focus on the rural and industrial markets. We maintain our BUY rating on SGL with TP of HK$10.1. EPC order book growing healthily At the end of FY13, SGL had an EPC order book of about RMB 5bn, which further rose to RMB 5.6bn by the end of 1H14. It is expected that SGL s order book would be over RMB 6bn by the end of FY14, among which 60% would be urban WWT projects (including rural projects) while 40% would be industrial WWT projects. As for the source of EPC orders, 70% would be from external third parties and the remaining 30% would be from the company s internal BOT projects. O&M capacity will maintain steady growth in next 5 years The increase of O&M capacity should be over 1mtpd this year, which meets the company's original target and also our expectations. We expect O&M capacity addition each year could reach 1mn to 1.5mn tpd in the next five years as a result of industry consolidation, favorable government policies as well as better construction of pipeline networks. More focus on rural and industrial WWT markets In the future, the company s business would be categorized into three segments: municipal, rural and industrial WWT, with the company focusing more in latter two segments. Management believes that the rural WWT market has potentially higher growth as it is 3 to 4 times larger than the municipal WWT market. The company would continue to look for more opportunities in the industrial WWT market and the management sees good segment growth. Major clients would be from polluting industries such as tannery, coal chemicals, steel, coking and pharmaceuticals. Grant of options to the management On 9 Dec 2014, the company granted options to subscribe for a total of 90mn shares to the management with exercise price at HK$8.11. Exercise of the options is subject to a harsh requirement that net profit for FY14-FY16 must be at least 35%, 85% and 150% higher than FY13 s net profit respectively, comparing to our estimates of SGL s bottom line for FY14-FY16 higher than FY13 s net profit by 33%, 95% and 142%. We believe this option grant could strongly incentivize the management to achieve better operating results and should be positive to the company s shareholders. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 2,652 3,140 3,783 4,834 5,780 Operating Profit ,045 1,383 1,659 Reported Profit ,025 Underlying Profit ,025 Underlying EPS (CNY) BVPS (CNY) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Environmental & Clean Energy 10 December 2014 BUY Target price HK$10.10 Last price (10 Dec 14) HK$8.47 Upside/downside (%) 19.2 HSI Mkt cap (HK$bn/US$bn) 12.4/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 4.99 Free float (%) 45.0% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Dec-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (2.2) (5.0) 92.1 Absolute (US$, %) (2.2) (5.1) 92.1 Relative to HSI (%) (1.3) (0.3) 93.0 Source: Bloomberg Company background Sound Global Ltd. provides water and wastewater treatment solutions in China. The Company is involved in engineering, procurement, construction and equipment fabrication. It plans to become an integrated solutions provider through its operations management and build-operate-transfer projects. Source: Bloomberg Raymond Ip SFC CE No.: AMB raymond.ip@guosen.com.hk Aug-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯桑德国际 (967 HK) 业务进展顺利我们参加了桑德国际 12 月 10 日的电话会议到 2014 年末, 公司的 EPC 订单量突破人民币 60 亿元, 经营管理的水务处理量今年增加超过 100 万吨 / 日, 我们认为公司业务发展顺利, 符合市场预期未来公司将会更关注村镇及工业污水处理市场我们对桑德国际维持买入评级, 目标价 10.1 港元 EPC 订单量增长良好 2013 年底桑德国际的 EPC 订单量约为人民币 50 亿元,2014 上半年末订单量达到人民币 56 亿元 2014 年末订单量突破人民币 60 亿元应确定无疑其中,60% 为城镇污水处理项目,40% 为工业污水处理项目按 EPC 订单来源来分,70% 来自外部第三方, 其余 30% 为自身的 BOT 项目经营管理的水务处理量在未来 5 年将维持稳定增长公司今年经营管理的污水处理量增长应超过 100 万吨 / 日, 达到公司 2014 年初定的目标值, 也符合我们的预期由于未来行业的集中度将提升, 政府出台利好政策, 管道网络逐步完善, 预计未来 5 年经营管理的水务处理量将每年增加万吨 / 天更加关注村镇及工业污水处理市场公司未来的业务发展将细分为三个领域 : 市镇村镇工业污水处理, 而公司将进一步加强后两个领域的发展管理层相信村镇水务市场有巨大的增长空间, 因为它的市场规模是市镇水务市场的 3-4 倍公司也将在工业污水处理市场继续寻求更多的机会, 而管理层也看好这一领域的增长前景工业客户主要来自于高污染行业, 比如制革煤化工钢铁焦化制药等等对管理层的股权激励计划 2014 年 12 月 9 日, 公司向管理层授出可认购该公司合共 9,000 万股普通股份的购股权, 行权价 8.11 元行使该购股权须满足一项严格的要求, 即年的盈利应分别比 2013 年盈利高 35% 85% 150%, 而我们对桑德国际年的盈利预测为高于 2013 年盈利 33% 95% 142% 我们相信该股权授出计划可以极大地激励管理层完成更好的经营业绩, 也符合股东的利益中国 / 环保和清洁能源 2014 年 12 月 10 日买入目标价 HK$10.10 收盘价 (10 Dec 14) HK$8.47 Upside/downside (%) 19.2 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 12.4/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 4.99 流通量 (%) 45.0% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Dec-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (2.2) (5.0) 92.1 绝对回报 (US$, %) (2.2) (5.1) 92.1 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (1.3) (0.3) 93.0 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Aug-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 桑德国际有限公司在中国提供供水和废水处理解决方案该公司从事工程设计采购施工和设备制造业务该公司计划通过其经营管理和 BOT( 建设 - 经营 - 转让 ) 项目成为集成解决方案提供商资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 2,652 3,140 3,783 4,834 5,780 经营盈利 ,045 1,383 1,659 净利润 ,025 实际盈利 ,025 每股实际盈利 (CNY) 每股账面价值 (CNY) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 净资产收益率 (%) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 叶伟焯证监会中央编号 :AMB raymond.ip@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 12 months forward PE band chart HK$ Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 max 16.3X PE(x) 14.8X +1sd 14.0X avg 11.5X -1sd 9.0X min 7.4X Figure 4 12 months forward PB band chart max 2.8X sd 2.2X PB(x) 2.0X avg 1.8X -1sd 1.3X min 1.2X Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue from Waste Revenue growth (%) Revenue from Water 2,652 3,140 3,783 4,834 5,780 Operating profit growth (%) Other Revenue Reported profit growth (%) 3.3 (1.0) Revenue 2,652 3,140 3,783 4,834 5,780 Underlying profit growth (%) 3.3 (1.0) Cost of sales (1,852) (2,181) (2,614) (3,273) (3,896) Underlying EPS growth (%) 3.3 (1.0) Gross profit ,169 1,562 1,884 Dividend growth (%) (100) Other income/(expense) Gross profit margin (%) Operating expenses (179) (191) (227) (290) (347) Operating profit margin (%) Operating profit ,045 1,383 1,659 Underlying profit margin (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Net debt/equity (%) (60.9) (44.4) (0.4) Finance income Net debt/total assets (%) (23.6) (15.5) (0.2) Finance expenses (174) (285) (320) (322) (343) Current ratio (%) Associates & JCE Dividend payout (%) Profit before taxation ,062 1,316 Interest cover (x) Taxation (76) (141) (159) (234) (290) Dividend cover (x) Non-controlling interests 0 (2) (2) (2) (2) Dupont Analysis 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Net profit ,025 Tax burden (%) Other Adjustments on UP Interest burden (%) Underlying Profit ,025 Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets Operating profit ,045 1,383 1,659 Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others 1,783 2,410 3,589 5,959 6,842 Interest income Non-current assets 1,831 2,460 3,643 6,016 6,903 Change in working capital (694) (621) (1,351) (2,662) (1,267) Inventories Tax paid (57) (66) (140) (174) (245) Debtors & prepayments 1,433 1,569 1,702 2,176 2,601 Other operating cashflow (36) (53) (4) (5) (5) Bank deposits & cash 2,912 3,534 2,862 3,348 3,314 Operating activities (106) 117 (444) (1,450) 150 Others 639 1,207 1,481 1,824 2,252 Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (5) (130) (10) (11) (12) Current assets 5,008 6,338 6,079 7,388 8,216 Free cash flow (111) (13) (454) (1,461) 138 Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables 1,171 1,654 1,891 2,417 2,890 Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities 1,763 2,569 2,826 3,411 3,928 Other investing cashflow (24) (31) Bank & other borrowings 889 1,518 2,193 2,725 2,979 Investing activities (19) (150) (10) (11) (12) Others 1,533 1,637 1,064 1,064 1,064 New loans raised 1,816 1, Non-current liabilities 2,421 3,154 3,257 3,789 4,043 Repayment of loans (677) (424) Net assets 2,655 3,074 3,640 6,204 7,148 Dividends paid (65) 0 0 (56) (83) Share capital ,625 2,625 Other financing cashflow (110) (264) (320) 1,470 (343) Premium & reserves 1,811 2,237 2,800 3,570 4,512 Financing activities (218) 1,946 (172) Shareholders' funds 2,644 3,070 3,634 6,196 7,138 Inc/(dec) in cash (671) 486 (34) Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year 2,074 2,912 3,534 2,862 3,348 Total equity 2,655 3,074 3,640 6,204 7,148 Foreign exchange effect 0 (6) Cash at end of year 2,912 3,534 2,862 3,348 3,314 Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 6

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)