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1 Company Research 1 November 2013 ASM Pacific Technology(522.HK) Robust new bookings mean limited downside BUY Target price: HK$97 Asia Technology ASMPT posted a 18.6% qoq rise in net profit to HKD273m (+9.5% yoy) in 3Q13 due to improved GPM of the back-end business (3Q:34.7% vs 2Q: 31.5%). Revenue was up 8.8% qoq to HKD3.1b (+2.2% yoy) for the period. The 1Q-3Q13 net profit and revenue of HKD511m (-30% yoy) and HKD8.08b (-1.3% yoy) represented 73% and 74% of our full year estimate. We believe the recent 13% price correction has already priced in the seasonal weakness. Market share gain in back-end equipment. US semi equipment book-to-bill ratio dropped to 0.68 in Sep from 0.88 in Aug, showing demand headwinds in 2H. ASMPT s back-end equipment sales increased by 2% qoq (-1.3% yoy ) to HKD1.5bn which contributed 49% of 3Q total sales. New bookings surged 39% yoy (-11% qoq) mainly contributed by an increase in new orders of TCB and CIS equipment. During the same period, its competitor BESI recorded -9.7% qoq and -41.7% qoq in 3Q revenue and orders, respectively, indicating ASMPT s continued market share gain. Expanding SMT segment. SMT equipment sales surged 24% qoq (+10% yoy) to HKD1.1bn which contributed 35% of 3Q total sales (vs 31% in 2Q). New order bookings rose by 34% yoy (-5.7% qoq). Margin contraction (2Q: 31.6% vs 3Q: 26.4%) was mainly due to the increasing sales to China market and decreasing price competitiveness caused by Japanese Yen depreciation. Our FY13/14/15 SMT gross margin estimates are 27.7%/28.9%/29.7%. Improving profitability of lead frame segment. Lead frame sales in 3Q grew by 2.2% qoq (-2.7%yoy). New order bookings surged 77.4% yoy (-28.7% qoq). Economies of scales and better cost structure drove its segment profit margin up to 10.5% in 3Q from 8.5% in 2Q. Senior Analyst Bill Fan, CPA, CFA SFC CE No.:AUT Bill.fan@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) Shares Outstanding(m) 399 Market Cap. (HK$ b) 29.8 Free float (%) Average Daily Turnover HK$82m 52 Week Range 72.65/105.8 Controlling Shareholder ASMI (40.08%) BVPS (HK$) Debt ratio (%) 5.09 Robust new bookings mean limited downside. We maintain our BUY rating and TP of HKD97 based on 4.6x FY14 PB. The robust yoy growth in new bookings indicates a strong recovery from seasonal weakness in 3Q. We believe further downside is limited given the recent 13% price correction. Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (HKD m) 12,915 10,461 10,872 14,121 17,077 Operating Profit (HKD m) 2, ,391 2,129 Reported Profit (HKD m) 2, ,096 1,680 Underlying Profit (HKD m) 2, ,096 1,680 Underlying EPS (HKD) DPS (HKD) BVPS (HKD) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告 ASM 太平洋科技 (522.HK) 纵使行业低迷, 公司盈利能力持续超越对手 ASM 太平洋 2013 年前三季度收入为港币 80.8 亿元 ( 同比下跌 1.3%), 是我们 FY13 预估收入之 74% 第三季净利润同比增长 18.6%( 按季增 9.5%) 至港币 2.73 亿元, 主因公司后端业务毛利率改善 (3Q:34.7%; 2Q:31.5%) 我们认为过去三个月公司股价的调整( 约 13%) 已反映了行业周期性疲弱之影响维持买入评级高级分析师范阳, CPA, CFA 证监会中央编号 :.:AUT Bill.fan@guosen.com.hk 股价表现买入目标价 : HK$97 亚洲科技行业后端设备市场份额持续提升美国半设备订单出货比从 8 月的 0.88 下降至 9 月的 0.68, 预示下半年行业需求疲弱 ASM 太平洋的后端设备收入按季增长 2%( 按年下跌 1.3%) 至 15 亿港元, 占第三季度总销售额的 49% 新订单同比增长 39%( 环比跌 11%), 主要来自 TCB 和 CIS 设备的贡献同期公司的竞争对手 BESI 收入及订单环比分别下跌 9.7% 及 41.7%, 显示 ASM 太平洋的市场份额不断上升 SMT 设备业务继续扩张 SMT 设备销售环比增长 24%( 同比 +10%) 至 11 亿港元, 占第三季度总销售额的 35%( 第二季度为 31%) 新订单同比增长 34%( 环比 -5.7%) 毛利率下跌 (2Q:31.6% vs 3Q:26.4%), 主因来自中国市场的销售增加和日元贬值所造成的价格竞争力下降我们 FY13/14/15 SMT 业务毛利率估计为 27.7%/28.9%/ 29.7% 引线框架业务盈利能力改善引线框架在第三季度的销售额按季增长 2.2%, 同比下跌 2.7% 新增订单同比增长 77.4%, 环比下跌 28.7% 规模经济效应提高及更好的成本结构带动该业务利润率从第二季度的 8.5% 上升至第三季度的 10.5% 股价已反映行业周期性疲软, 维持买入评级我们维持买入评级, 目标价港币 97 元是基于 2014 年 4.6 倍 PB ASM 太平洋一直于行业低迷期凭藉其广泛的产品组合及应用, 进一步扩大市场占有率我们认为目前股价下跌空间有限资料来源 : 彭博股票数据收盘价 ( 港币 $) 流通股本 ( 百万 ) 399 总市值 ( 港币 $ 亿 ) 29.8 流通量 (%) 日均成交额 HK$82m 52 周最低 / 最高 72.65/105.8 主要控股股东 ASMI (40.08%) 每股净资产 ( 港币 $) 负债率 (%) 5.09 盈利预测截至 31/ A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 ( 港币百万 ) 12,915 10,461 10,872 14,121 17,077 经营盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 2, ,391 2,129 账面盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 2, ,096 1,680 实际盈利 ( 港币百万 ) 2, ,096 1,680 每股实际盈利 ( 港币 ) 每股股息 ( 港币 ) 每股账面价值 ( 港币 ) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 :

3 Financial Summary Profit & Loss (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Back-end Equipment 6,527 5,024 5,178 6,959 8,762 Revenue growth (%) 36% -19% 4% 30% 21% SMT 4,875 3,789 3,904 5,201 6,266 Operating profit grow th (%) -24% -52% 7% 43% 42% Leadframes 1,513 1,647 1,790 1,961 2,050 Reported profit grow th (%) 3% -77% 2% 56% 53% Revenue 12,915 10,461 10,872 14,121 17,077 Underly ing profit grow th (%) 3% -77% 2% 56% 53% Cost of sales (8,489) (7,298) (7,595) (9,708) (11,413) Underly ing EPS grow th (%) 3% -77% 2% 56% 53% Gross profit 4,426 3,162 3,277 4,413 5,664 Dividend growth (%) -35% -62% - 56% 53% R&D ex penses (885) (905) (946) (1,229) (1,486) Div idend pay out (%) 32% 53% 58% 58% 58% SG&A ex penses (1,235) (1,365) (1,413) (1,765) (2,015) Gross profit margin (%) 34% 30% 30% 31% 33% Other operating ex pense (33) (17) (22) (28) (34) Operating profit margin (%) 20% 12% 12% 13% 16% Operating profit 2, ,391 2,129 Underly ing profit margin (%) 23% 7% 6% 8% 10% Finance costs (17) (1) (2) (2) (2) ROE (%) 47% 11% 10% 13% 17% Other income 999 (7) (7) (7) (7) ROA (%) 31% 7% 2% 2% 4% Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) -21% -10% 111% 111% 72% Profit before taxation 3, ,386 2,124 Net debt/total assets (%) -13% -6% 18% 21% 15% Tax ation (357) (180) (186) (290) (444) Current ratio (%) 226% 225% 131% 121% 130% Non-controlling interests Interest cov er (x ) Net profit 2, ,096 1,680 Dividend cover (x ) Balance Sheet (RMB m 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash Flows (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Fixed assets 2,102 2,203 2,462 2,786 3,031 Operating profit 2, ,391 2,129 Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others ,197 11,842 10,921 Interest income Non-current assets 2,471 2,698 12,659 14,628 13,952 Others 596 (510) 13, ,413 Inventories 2,546 2,876 2,743 3,263 3,804 Change in working capital (1,168) (470) (79) (384) (340) Debtors & prepayments 2,099 2,269 2,416 3,138 3,795 Tax paid (357) Bank deposits & cash 1,628 1,487 24,934 22,282 24,410 Operating activities 1, ,907 2,419 6,231 Others CAPEX (752) (462) (696) (833) (820) Current assets 7,141 7,526 31,045 29,635 32,961 Purchase of assets - - (332) (323) (332) Bank & other borrow ings ,455 20,315 20,416 Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables ,321 1,839 Proceeds from investments Tax ation Others 288 (106) (2,319) (2,246) (2,316) Current liabilities 3,158 3,352 23,745 24,468 25,437 Investing activities (461) (562) (3,347) (3,402) (3,468) Bank & other borrowings ,510 11,250 11,250 New loans raised ,702 39,410 45,013 Others Repay ment of loans - - (21,321) (40,670) (45,013) Non-current liabilities ,697 11,437 11,437 Dividends paid (1,901) (561) - (409) (636) Net assets 6,266 6,557 7,262 8,358 10,039 Others Share capital Financing activities (1,866) (547) 12,381 (1,669) (636) Premium & reserves 5,561 5,691 6,396 7,493 9,173 Inc/(dec) in cash (614) (635) 23,941 (2,652) 2,128 Shareholders' funds 6,266 6,557 7,262 8,358 10,039 Cash at beginning of y ear 1,978 1, ,934 22,282 Non-controlling interests Foreign exchange effect Total equity 6,266 6,557 7,262 8,358 10,039 Cash at end of year 1, ,934 22,282 24,410 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4

5 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)