- PDF 免费下载

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download ""

路庾
5 years ago
Views:

1 Company Research Company visit Pax Global Techn (327 HK) Advantages over two sides We recently visited the headquarters and R&D office of PAX, as well as the EMS factory and warehouse. We think PAX s success is primarily attributable to its unique evolution that is hardly mimic by other players. It has advantages over both international and domestic peers and it is focusing on emerging markets which are less addressed by Ingenico and Verifone. We think the oversea markets will be the growth driver in the coming years. Meanwhile, the release of Apply Pay and any potential M&A will have limited impact on the company s performance. Unique evolution hardly mimic by peers. PAX was the pioneer in the EMV migration in Asia when the three credit card networks (Europay, Mastercard and Visa) initially established the standard. PAX has been able to effectively control its production cost and increase efficiency, which enable its product to be more price competitive in market outside China when compared to the two international peers (Ingenico and Verifone). For domestic EPT vendors, the multi-layer, time-consuming security certification application process is a natural barrier to them when they want to enter these oversea markets and compete with PAX, which has obtained more than 300 domestic and international certifications and sold to over 80 countries. Asset-light business model with strong R&D capability. PAX outsources the manufacturing process to PKS, while it takes care of the raw material purchasing and inventory storage. The Japanese EMS provider PKS is reputable for its high production quality standard and has the flexibility to expand production capacity. Automated production lines have been introduced for making POS terminals in PKS, which increase the efficiency in production and improve PAX s margin. PAX is also an R&D intensive company with over 50% of its staff is R&D engineers. MPOS, the future of EPTs. The cloud technology along with mobile network should enable Mobile POS to become smaller and more portable for use by micro-merchants. MPOS, which can be connected to smart devices and is cheaper than traditional POS, should allow micro-merchants to accept card payment from clients, thereby increase their turnovers. Emerging markets like Brazil, where there is a large number of micromerchants, will have a huge potential demand for MPOS. Device sales in emerging markets will be the major growth driver We believe at this stage hardware sales in emerging markets, which are less addressed by Ingenico and Verfifone, will still be the major growth driver for PAX in the coming years. Meanwhile, the release of Apple Pay in the U.S. and any potential M&A activities will not have a large contribution to the bottom line of the company in the short term. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (HK$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue ,103 1,313 1,472 EBITDA Operating Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (HKD) ROE (%) EPS (HKD) EPS growth (%) (9.7) P/E (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Hong Kong / Technology 05 November 2014 NonRated Target price Last price (4 Nov 14) HK$8.38 Upside/downside (%) HSI Mkt cap (HK$bn/US$bn) 9.2/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 6.68 Free float (%) 58.2% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Nov-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) Absolute (US$, %) Relative to HSI (%) Source: Bloomberg Company background PAX Global Technology Ltd. is an electronic fund transfer point-of-sale (EFT-POS) terminal solutions provider. The Company principally engaged in the development and sale of EFT-POS products and provision of related services. PAX develop and sells countertop and mobile EFT-POS terminals which are able to process a wide range of electronic payment types. Source: Bloomberg Max Gan, CFA SFC CE No.: BDA Jul-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 220% 170% 120% 70% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司参观 PAX Global Technology Ltd (327 HK) 双边优势近日我们参观了百富环球的总部, 代工厂以及原料和成品仓库在我们看来, 公司的成功主要归功于其独特的发展历程使其具备了国外和国内同业都难以在短时间内获得的优势我们认为海外市场的扩展仍为公司主要的增长要素, 而苹果 Apple Pay 的推广和任何近期有可能的并购活动并不会对公司盈利带来显著的影响独特的发展历程造就难以匹敌的优势百富是亚洲 EMV 标准实行者的先驱, 此优势为公司早期赢得了大量的海外订单而提升了公司的知名度, 为之后在中国 POS 行业快速发展的环境中打下了基础之后在国内激烈的市场竞争环境下, 百富逐渐提升成本的控制能力和生产效率, 以至于在海外的市场上能够以更加有竞争力的价格从两大国际厂商 Ingenico 和 Verifone 中获得市场份额, 并不断开拓新的发展中国家的市场而对于同样拥有成本优势的国内的同业公司, 海外市场繁琐与漫长的安全认证成为了提早布局海外的百富的自然保护伞公司现有 300 多份国内与国际的认证并将其产品销往 80 多个国家轻资产重研发的商业模式百富将生产的过程外包给了一家以质量著称的日本电子代工厂商 PKS, 自己则掌握着原料采购与成品的储存步骤 PKS 同时亦为其他日本与欧洲的电子产品提供代工服务, 因此在质量把控与产量的弹性上有着优势, 也为百富在提高生产效率和成本控制上做出了许多贡献比如自动生产线将逐渐取代人工组装和检验步骤来提高产量, 并在长期减少不断攀升的人工成本百富将其重心放在了软硬件和系统的研发上公司现拥有超过 360 名研发工程师, 超过总员工的一半移动电子支付端是电子支付终端的未来云端技术运用的普遍化与移动互联网的渗透使得移动电子支付端 (MPOS) 进化的更加便携和方便小型商户与个人使用 MPOS 可以与智能设备连接后便进行支付的步骤, 使得原本只能收取现金为主的小型商户进行安全的电子移动支付, 因此增加了其收入的途径和可能对于拥有众多小型商户的发展中国家如巴西 MPOS 的需求将会持续旺盛在新兴市场的终端销售仍将是业务增长的主要驱动因素. 我们认为在现阶段在那些鲜有被 Ingenico 与 Verifone 涉足或渗透的新兴市场的硬件销售将是公司在未来几年业务增长的主要驱动因素同时在我们看来, 苹果 Apply Pay 在美国的推广并不会短时间内对公司的盈利带来影响百富在美国的布局将会在未来几年逐渐显现同理我们认为任何近期有可能的并购活动亦不会在短时间内对公司的盈利带来显著的影响香港 / 科技 2014 年 11 月 5 日未评级目标价收盘价 (4 Nov 14) HK$8.38 Upside/downside (%) 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 9.2/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 6.68 流通量 (%) 58.2% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Nov-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 绝对回报 (US$, %) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Jul-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 220% 170% 120% 70% 百富环球科技有限公司是一家电子支付 (EFT-POS) 终端机解决方案供货商该公司主要从事开发及销售 EFT-POS 产品并提供相关服务百富研制和销售能够处理多种类型电子支付范围的台面和移动电子支付终端机资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 港元百万 ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 营业额 ,103 1,313 1,472 EBITDA 经营盈利实际盈利每股实际盈利 (HKD) 净资产收益率 (%) 每股盈利 (HKD) 每股盈利增长 (%) (9.7) 市盈率 (x) 甘中辉, CFA 证监会中央编号 :BDA max.gan@guosen.com.hk 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Unique evolution hardly mimic by peers EMV migration pioneer in Asia PAX was the pioneer in the EMV migration in Asia when the standard was initially established by the three credit card networks (Europay, Mastercard and Visa). Its success of winning the Korean market in its early stage of business made its name to other Asian countries which comply with the EMV standard. PAX then expanded its business in China with its edges on security and product quality, which were less addressed by domestic peers at that time. Effective cost control and international standard of product quality enable PAX to enter oversea markets PAX has been able to effectively control its production cost and increase efficiency, which enable its products to be more price competitive in markets outside China when comparing to the two international peers (Ingenico and Verifone). More importantly, Landi, which is a major competitor of PAX, has restricted its business inside China after being acquired by Ingenico. Thus competition from major domestic peers which have similar cost advantages in oversea markets will not be a major issue in the short term. For smaller domestic EPT vendors, the multi-layer, time-consuming security certification application process is a natural barrier to them when they want to enter oversea markets and compete with PAX, which has obtained more than 300 domestic and international certifications and their products are sold in over 80 countries.. Asset-light business model with strong R&D capability Cooperate with premium quality control standard EMS PAX outsources the manufacturing process, while it takes care of the material purchasing and inventory storage. PKS is the EMS provider and responsible for manufacturing PAX s products. This Japanese EMS provider also manufactures electric devices for other Japanese and European vendors, which have high quality standard requirements. PKS also has the flexibility to expand the production capacity in case the orders exceed normal production level, which enables it to meet PAX s surprise increase in orders from oversea markets. PKS also communicates with PAX regularly to discuss issues like improving the efficiency, such as controlling the production cost when production capacity is increased. Automated production lines have been introduced for making POS terminals in PKS, which is the result of the effort contributed by both PAX engineers and PKS. This is how PAX increase the efficiency in production and improve its margin. Strong R&D capability Over half of PAX s staff are in the R&D (~360 engineers). Operating system, application and hardware development each accounted for 25% of the R&D force. The company has a very competitive R&D force comparing to its domestic peers, especially at the security segment, which takes up 15% of the R&D personnel. The platform server is an area that is less addressed by PAX and is where the two international peers have advantages. MPOS, the future of Electronic POS Terminals Cloud technology enables MPOS to become smaller and more convenient The cloud technology along with mobile network enable Mobile POS (MPOS) to become smaller and more portable for use by micro-merchants whose turnover is between 10k and 100k per annum. This group of merchants, who are predominantly taking cash or cheque presently, was neglected by the acquirers as their volume of transactions was too low to attract acquirers attention. MPOS like the D210 model, which can be connect to smart devices and cheaper in price, enable these micro-merchants to accept card payment from clients, which in turn can increase their turnovers. Emerging markets like Brazil has a large number of these micro-merchants and there will be a huge demand for MPOS. Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Device sales in emerging markets will be the major growth driver Apple Pay will not have an extraordinary impact on PAX s shipment in the U.S. We believe Apply Pay will be successful in the U.S. thanks to its convenient payment experience and its partnership with credit card and banks. It requires the POS terminal on the merchant side to have NFC function to use. For this reason, merchants who cooperate with Apple will upgrade their terminal hardware, which is a positive signal to POS vendors. However, the impact on PAX will be limited in the short term. Despite the large potential, the shipment to the U.S. clients is not in large comparing to other oversea markets due to the sophisticated institution-level certification application process and the operating system compatible issue. In addition, over half of PAX s shipment is already NFC ready. Thus the success of Apple Pay is not the key factor which affect the shipment of PAX in US. Likely M&A is not a game changer in the short term. During the 1H14 analyst briefing in early August, the management mentioned that they expect to see some progress of potential M&A by the end of 2014, although the size of the target may not be big. The company intent to extend its business downstream to e-payment, which will increase recurrent service revenue. We believe at this stage hardware sales in emerging markets, which are less addressed by Ingenico and Verfifone, will still be the major growth driver for PAX in the coming years. Any M&A will not have a large contribution to the bottom line of the company in the near term. Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (HK$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Financial Ratios 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue ,103 1,313 1,472 Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales (300) (432) (711) (849) (931) Operating profit growth (%) Gross profit Reported profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) Underlying profit growth (%) Operating expenses (103) (147) (226) (271) (325) Underlying EPS growth (%) (9.7) Operating profit Dividend growth (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Gross profit margin (%) Finance income Operating profit margin (%) Finance expenses Underlying profit margin (%) Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) (57.3) (82.9) (72.0) (75.6) (81.4) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) (42.8) (70.8) (57.4) (62.4) (60.0) Taxation (16) (27) (26) (40) (40) Current ratio (%) Non-controlling interests Dividend payout (%) Net profit Interest cover (x) Other Adjustments on UP Dividend cover (x) Underlying Profit Dupont Analysis 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Source: Guosen Research estimates Tax burden (%) Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (HK$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Cashflow (HK$mn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income 0 (1) (6) (11) (15) Non-current assets Change in working capital 53 (34) (194) Inventories Tax paid (4) (22) (30) (29) (42) Debtors & prepayments Other operating cashflow (1) (1) (13) 0 0 Bank deposits & cash 242 1,067 1,152 1,358 1,698 Operating activities (33) Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (3) (5) (2) (3) (1) Current assets 556 1,494 1,995 2,183 2,824 Free cash flow (35) Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities Other investing cashflow (8) 10 Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (3) (3) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans (15) Net assets 423 1,287 1,601 1,811 2,087 Dividends paid Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves 423 1,187 1,497 1,707 1,983 Financing activities (15) Shareholders' funds 423 1,287 1,601 1,811 2,087 Inc/(dec) in cash Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year ,067 1,152 1,358 Total equity 423 1,287 1,601 1,811 2,087 Foreign exchange effect Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year 242 1,067 1,152 1,358 1,698 Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 7



February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)