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特球苦郎
5 years ago
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1 Company Research Company update Tongda Group Hld (698 HK) Eggs in the other basket The share experienced correction on concerns about slowdown in smartphones, which we believe is unwarranted as China s mobile broadband market remained resilient in July. The company s earnings may be given another boost if China launches another round of subsidy programs on household appliances to boost the domestic economy. We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of HK$1.41. Bad news may become good news The latest HSBC PMI fell to 50.3, which was the lowest over the past three months. Together with lower than expected credit growth earlier, our macro team is of the view that China may have stimulus measures coming. According to a Bloomberg article today, China is considering a plan to offer subsidies to encourage wider use of energy-saving home appliances. While this remains unconfirmed, if materialize, we believe this policy will be positive to Tongda, which is expected to generate 14% of FY14 revenue from electrical appliances casing products. Part of the company s metal parts revenue also related to electrical appliances, the actual exposure to the segment is even higher. A beneficiary of past subsidy programs Electrical appliance casing sales experienced decline in both 2012 and 2013 when a series of subsidy programs and the Rmb4trn stimulus package in China following the global financial crisis in 2008 pre-consumed future demand, which partly explained the slowdown. The segment experienced very rapid growth in 2009 (+176%) and 2010 (+35%) as a result of the earlier subsidy programs. Even without the potential policy above, appliances sales in China have already showed a recovery trend recently and the potential policy will give the sector another boost. There are eggs in other baskets Although smartphone casing will remain a major growth driver, Tongda does not have all eggs in one basket and there are other growth pillars for the company. While electrical appliance casing is one, longer term, auto parts could potentially be another new growth driver in two to three years time Correction offers buying opportunities We believe the recent correction triggered by concerns about slowdown in China s smartphone market overdone, particularly in light of the solid mobile broadband market growth in July. Potential subsidy programs on appliances, if confirmed, will offer additional upside potential in earnings and valuation. We reiterate our BUY rating and TP of HK$1.41, which offers 27% potential upside and implies a FY15 PE of 12.7x. The company is currently trading at 10x FY15 PE, which is at 21% discount to peers average of 12.7x. Hong Kong / Technology 22 August 2014 BUY Target price HK$1.41 Last price (22 Aug 14) HK$1.11 Upside/downside (%) 27.0 HSI Mkt cap (HK$mn/US$mn) 6,066/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 7.05 Free float (%) 52.6% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Aug-13 Price(LHS) Apr-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 270% 220% 170% 120% 70% Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (6.7) Absolute (US$, %) (6.7) Relative to HSI (%) (12.3) Source: Bloomberg Company background Tongda Group Holdings Limited is a supplier of highprecision components of consumer electronic products. The Company uses its in-mould lamination ("IML") technology for customers in the in the PRC. The Group has established a solid presence in handset, electrical appliance and notebook computer casings and related products. Source: Bloomberg Please refers to charts & tables on P.3-8 Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (HK$mn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Underlying Profit Revenue 3,408 3,627 4,701 5,810 6,677 Underlying EPS (HKD) EPS growth (%) DPS (HKD) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Net debt/equity (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Stephen Leung SFC CE No.: ACZ stephen.leung@guosen.com.hk See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯通达集团 (698 HK) 在其他篮子裡的鸡蛋因市场关注智能手机放缓, 有关股票受到沽压我们认为市场过份担心, 因七月份中国的移动宽带市场仍保持稳健的增长如果中国启动新一轮对家电的补贴方案去拉动国内经济, 该公司的盈利可能得到另一个刺激我们重申买入评级与目标价 1.41 港元坏消息可能会成为一个好消息最新的汇丰采购经理人指数下滑至 50.3, 这是在过去三个月最低的水平再加上早前信贷增长数据比预期差, 我们宏观研究组的同事认为中国可能会有刺激经济措施据彭博今天报导, 中国正在考虑一项补贴计划, 以鼓励更广泛地使用节能家电虽然有关报导还没有被确定, 但如果这成为事实, 我们认为这个潜在的政策对通达将是正面的我们预期家电外壳产品佔该公司 2014 年收入的 14% 而部分金属组件收入也涉及到家电, 实际和家电有关的收入比重应更高过去的补贴方案的受益者家电外壳收入在 2012 和 2013 年经历下滑, 因在 2008 年全球金融危机后, 中国的一系列的家电补贴计划和 4 万亿经济刺激方案把未来的需求提前了, 这部分解释了近年的增速放缓因这些较早的补贴计划, 通达的有关业务在 2009(+176%) 和 2010(+35%) 年经历了非常迅速的增长即使没有上述潜在的政策, 中国的家电销售近期已经呈现复苏势头, 而该潜在的政策会对该部门的收入作进一步提升在其他篮子裡的鸡蛋虽然智能手机的外壳将仍然是增长的主要动力, 通达並不是把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里他们还有其他的增长支柱电器外壳是其中一个, 在两到三年后, 汽车零部件可能是另一个新的增长动力调整提供了买入机会我们认为因市场近期担心中国智能手机市场放缓而令股价过度回调七月份中国的移动宽带市场仍保持稳健的增长如果潜在的家电补贴方案得到证实, 将为通达提供盈利和估值额外的上涨潜力我们重申对该股的买入评级和 1.41 港元目标价, 它提供了 27% 的潜在上升空间, 并隐含 12.7X 倍 2015 年市盈率该公司目前 2015 年市盈率为 10x 倍, 相对同行平均 12.7 倍的水平有 21% 的折让香港 / 科技 2014 年 8 月 22 日买入目标价 HK$1.41 收盘价 (22 Aug 14) HK$1.11 Upside/downside (%) 27.0 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$mn) 6,066/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 7.05 流通量 (%) 52.6% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Aug-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (6.7) 绝对回报 (US$, %) (6.7) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (12.3) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Apr-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 270% 220% 170% 120% 70% 通达集团控股有限公司主要从事设计生产及销售五金部件电阻器电子零部件和家电电器配件该公司亦生产与销售光纤与数码光纤电缆产品, 以及从事电器贸易资料来源 : 彭博请参照第 3-8 页图表 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 港元百万 ) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 实际盈利营业额 3,408 3,627 4,701 5,810 6,677 每股实际盈利 (HKD) 每股盈利增长 (%) 每股股息 (HKD) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 净债务与股本 (%) 净资产收益率 (%) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 梁少熊证监会中央编号 :ACZ stephen.leung@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 HSBC PMI fell to a 3-month low Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 4 Total loan growth slowing (YoY%) Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 5 China's appliances sales is recovering (YoY% in value) Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Figure 6 Tongs FY15 revenue breakdown Appliances casing is #2 revenue contributor Comm. & others 7% Metal parts 13% Elec. Appliances 14% Notebook 12% Handset 54% Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Figure 7 Key assumptions and detailed P&L Year end 31 Dec F 2015F 2016F Revenue breakdown Handset 1,556 1,860 2,557 3,391 4,069 YoY% NB YoY% Electrical appliance YoY% Casing 2,813 2,960 3,780 4,770 5,532 YoY% Metal parts YoY% Comm YoY% Turnover 3,408 3,627 4,701 5,810 6,677 YoY% COGS (2,677) (2,829) (3,600) (4,442) (5,108) Gross profit ,102 1,368 1,569 Gross margin 21.4% 22.0% 23.4% 23.5% 23.5% Interest income Rental income FX gain / (loss) (3) 8 (10) 0 0 Others Other income Selling & distribution (82) (79) (91) (110) (125) As % of rev 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% R&D (68) (78) (108) (116) (134) As % of rev 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% Others (143) (200) (241) (282) (321) Admin (211) (278) (349) (398) (454) As % of rev 6.2% 7.7% 7.4% 6.9% 6.8% Impairments / Write-offs (8) (20) Others (1) (1) (0) (0) (0) Other opex (9) (21) (0) (0) (0) Total opex (301) (378) (440) (508) (579) As % of rev 8.8% 10.4% 9.4% 8.7% 8.7% Operating profit (EBIT) ,022 Operating margin 13.1% 12.9% 14.4% 15.3% 15.3% Finance costs (49) (52) (58) (56) (56) Profit after financing costs Associated companies 4 (0) Pre-tax profit Tax (67) (46) (102) (138) (159) Tax rate 16.8% 11.1% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% Minority interests (34) (9) (46) (63) (73) Net profit YoY% Net margin 8.8% 9.9% 10.0% 10.9% 11.0% Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Figure 8 DCF Model 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F EBITDA 851 1,084 1,237 1,370 1,515 1,643 Chg in working cap (447) (523) (409) (351) (331) (317) Adjusted tax (112) (147) (169) (187) (208) (227) Capex & product dev (350) (300) (300) (334) (366) (396) Others (7) (13) (18) (20) (23) (25) Unleveraged FCF (64) YoY% (63.7) (257.3) DCF ,603 PV (Terminal value) 6,658 EV (End-11) 8,261 Cash from options/warrants conv 131 Yer-end net cash/(debts) (361) Fully diluted equity value (End-11) 8,031 Fully diluted no. of shares (m) 5,681 Fully diluted equity value/share (HK$) 1.41 Risk-free rate 3.0% Risk premium 8.0% Unleveraged industry beta 0.95 Gearing 0.0% Tax 16.5% Beta 0.95 Cost of equity 10.6% Cost of debt 7.0% Tax rate 16.5% After-tax cost of debt 5.8% Debt to total capital 10.0% WACC 10.1% Terminal growth 3.0% Figure 9 DCF sensitivity analysis Terminal growth 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Discount rate 12.0% % % % % Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Figure 10 Trailing PE band chart Figure 11 Trailing PB band chart HK$ PE(x) max 15.4X +1sd 12.5X avg 9.2X -1sd 5.9X min 4.3X PB(x) max 2.3X +1sd 1.5X avg 1.1X -1sd 0.7X min 0.6X 0.00 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (HK$mn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 3,408 3,627 4,701 5,810 6,677 Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales (2,677) (2,829) (3,600) (4,442) (5,108) Operating profit growth (%) 23.2 (2.0) Gross profit ,102 1,368 1,569 Reported profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) (9) (21) Underlying profit growth (%) Operating expenses (292) (356) (440) (508) (579) Underlying EPS growth (%) Operating profit Dividend growth (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Gross profit margin (%) Finance income Operating profit margin (%) Finance expenses (49) (52) (58) (56) (56) Underlying profit margin (%) Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) Taxation (67) (46) (102) (138) (159) Current ratio (%) Non-controlling interests (34) (9) (46) (63) (73) Dividend payout (%) Net profit Interest cover (x) Other Adjustments on UP Dividend cover (x) Underlying Profit Dupont Analysis 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Source: Guosen Research estimates Tax burden (%) Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (HK$mn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow (HK$mn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets 1,230 1,328 1,506 1,609 1,691 Operating profit ,022 Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income (2) (3) (5) (6) (6) Non-current assets 1,478 1,609 1,785 1,885 1,964 Change in working capital (169) (493) (447) (523) (409) Inventories 802 1,088 1,381 1,704 1,959 Tax paid (43) (45) (188) (102) (138) Debtors & prepayments 1,607 1,718 2,249 2,779 3,194 Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash Operating activities Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (286) (257) (350) (300) (300) Current assets 2,726 3,048 4,154 4,925 5,703 Free cash flow 100 (154) (133) Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables 1, ,233 1,521 1,749 Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities 1,866 1,814 2,014 2,380 2,663 Other investing cashflow 0 (10) (7) (13) (18) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (284) (263) (352) (307) (313) Others New loans raised (50) 0 0 Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans Net assets 2,193 2,549 3,590 4,094 4,669 Dividends paid (85) (102) (132) (179) (214) Share capital Other financing cashflow (30) (29) 600 (56) (56) Premium & reserves 2,054 2,406 3,407 3,862 4,382 Financing activities (101) (235) (270) Shareholders' funds 2,102 2,455 3,456 3,910 4,430 Inc/(dec) in cash 2 (95) 282 (83) 108 Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year Total equity 2,193 2,549 3,590 4,094 4,669 Foreign exchange effect Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 7

8 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 8

9 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 9

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2