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1 Telecoms Sector Research FDD-LTE Licensing Views from China Telecom There are press reports yesterday suggesting China may award FDD- LTE 4G licenses to China Telecom (CT) and China Unicom (CU) in as early as next week. In our meeting with CT yesterday, the company does not rule out such a possibility. As CT suffered the most after China Mobile (CM) launched 4G, getting a FDD-LTE license will help reverse this trend and CT will see material benefit from this. FDD-LTE Licensing may come soon. According to press reports in Sing Tao Daily and Sina.com yesterday, China may issue FDD-LTE 4G licenses to China Telecom (CT) (728 HK, NR) and China Unicom (CU) (762 HK, NR) in as early as next week. We have met with CT yesterday and the company does not rule out such a possibility. CT highlights that there are concerns on limited radio spectrum available as there is only 120Mhz (60MHz x 2) of spectrum available, which may not be enough for three operators. It is important to note that giving CM a FDD license may give the wrong signal to the market that the government may want to steer away from the development of TD technology, which has been heavily promoted by the government. China Telecom will see material benefit from FDD. While all 3 Chinese mobile operators have 4G licenses based on TD-LTE, only CM is pushing it heavily while both CT and CU, hoping to get FDD-LTE licenses later on, are not. Since the peak downlink speed of CT s CDMA/EV-DO-based 3G service is only 14.7Mbps, which is well behind CU s WCDMA/HSPDA-based 3G, which offers speed as high as 84Mbps, CT has suffered most after CM launched 4G, which offers 100Mbps+ speed, in early this year. Year-to-May, CM got 74% net add market share in mobile broadband (i.e. 3G and 4G combined). Market share for CT and CU were 4.2% and 21.8%, respectively. The figures for 2013 were 56%, 25% and 19%, respectively. It is believed that the granting of FDD-LTE licenses to CT will help reverse the current difficult situation of the company. The 3 Chinese telcos are still working on the tower company. After CT announced on 30 April that the company is discussing with CM and CU on the establishment of a jointly owned tower company for facilities sharing, the discussion is still going and, according a news report on Sina.com quoting the chairman of CM, the tower company could be set up in as early as 3Q14. One possible structure would be a 40%/30%/30% ownership between CM/CT/CU but there is still limited details at this stage and the actual ownership structure may be different. We believe it will likely focus initially on building new towers to be shared among the three. Regarding the injection of existing towers of the three telcos into the tower company, it may take much longer time as it takes time to do valuation of the existing assets and fixing the leasing terms of those assets. The tower company may eventually be listed as a peer in the US, American Tower (AMT US, NR), is trading on 41x FY14 consensus earnings, which is way above consensus PE of CM (11.7x), CT (13.2x) and CU (17.5x). 27 June 2014 Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Stephen Leung SFC CE No.: ACZ stephen.leung@guosen.com.hk See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 电信板块报告 FDD-LTE 发牌中国电信的看法 昨天有媒体报道指中国最快可能于下周向中国电信 ( 电信 ) 和中国联通 ( 联通 ) 发出 FDD-LTE 的 4G 牌照 在我们昨天和电信的会议上, 公司不排除这种可能性 由于电信在中国移动 ( 移动 ) 推出 4G 后遭受严重的打击, 得到 FDD-LTE 牌照将有助于扭转这一趋势和令电信得益 FDD-LTE 发牌可能快將来临昨天在星島日報和新浪网道指中国可能会于下周向中国电信 ( 电信 ) (728 HK, 未有评级 ) 和中国联通 ( 联通 )(762 HK, 未有评级 ) 发出 FDD-LTE 的 4G 牌照给 我们昨天会见了中电信, 该公司並不排除这种可能性 电信指出市场担心有限的无线电频谱 (120MHz / 60MHz x 2) 可能不足以分配给三大运营商 我们应注意到给移动一个 FDD 牌照也可能给市场发出错误的信号, 令市场以为政府可能考虑改变对 TD 技术的支持 政府此前一直大力推广该技术的发展 2014 年 6 月 27 日 资料来源 : 中国电信将会得益虽然所有三家中国移动运营商都有 TD-LTE 的 4G 牌照, 但只有移动大力推广 因电信和联通希望較后时间能得到 FDD-LTE 牌照, 因此都没有跟随 由于电信的 CDMA/ EV-DO 3G 服务的下行峰值速度只有 14.7Mbps, 远远落后于联通 WCDMA/ HSPDA 3G 的 84Mbps, 在移动於今年年初推出速度超过 100Mbps 的 4G 后, 电信遭受严重的打击 从今年初到五月这段时间, 移动在移动宽带 ( 即包括 3G 和 4G) 新增客户的市场份额为 74% 电信和联通的市场份额分别为 4.2% 和 21.8% 在 2013 年的市场份额分别为 56%, 19% 和 25% 一般相信 FDD-LTE 牌照可以帮助电信改变目前的困难局面 三家电信运营商仍为成立铁塔公司在作准备工作电信在 4 月 30 日宣布该公司正与移动和联通就成立一家共同拥有的铁塔公司以供设施共享作出讨论, 而有关讨论仍在继续 据新闻报道援引移动的董事长指出, 该铁塔公司最早可能于 2014 年的三季度设立 一个可能的股权结构是移动 / 电信 / 联通分别持有 40%/30%/30% 的股权, 但在这个阶段可知的细节有限, 而真正的股权结构可能会有所不同 我们相信初期它很可能会首先着眼于建设新发射塔供三者共享 而有关于三家电信运营商把现有的发射塔注入该公司则可能需要更长的时间, 因为为现有的资产进行估值和有关的租赁条款需要时间商讨 因一家美国同业 American Tower(AMT US, 未有评级 ) 目前的 2014 年市场共识市盈率为 41 倍, 远远高于移动 (11.7 倍 ), 电信 (13.2 倍 ) 和联通 (17.5 倍 ), 该铁塔公司最终可能独立会上市 梁少熊 SFC CE No.: ACZ stephen.leung@guosen.com.hk See the last page of this report for important disclosures 2

3 Figure 1 3G+4G combined net add market share 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CM CU CT Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益 本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款 证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 5