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1 Company Research Company update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) 3 Dimensional growth Sunny Optical is working with various partners, which incl. Google, Smasung, Flexronics and MantisVision, for the development of 3D technologies and products. The company has strong position in the vehicle lens set market in the US and Europe and it is exploring opportunities with the Japanese and Korean automakers. Lens sets and modules for smartphones did well so far this year and the company targets increase in lens set self-sufficiency rate in module production to improve profitability. Consensus forecasts show a valuation discount to peers. 3D is on its way. Sunny Optical is working with strategic partners including Google, Samsung, Flextronics and MantisVision to develop 3D related technologies and products. While the company does not expect this will be a major revenue contributor in the near term, the management believes that this could be a new driver to the growth in the consumer electronics market. In particular, the concept is not in the lab and MantisVision has successfully developed a 3D scanner for industrial use. Vehicle lens sets is a sizeable market. Sunny Optical has an estimated market share of 28.7% in vehicle lens sets. While the global auto market, which has an estimated production of ~90m vehicles in 2014, is significantly smaller than the 1.2bn units smartphone market, the market for vehicle lens sets could amount to m units should 2-3 cameras per vehicle becomes standard. With higher margins, vehicle lens sets contribution to earnings is more material than the volume implies. The company currently mainly serves the US and European automakers but is exploring potential business opportunities with both the Japanese and Korean automakers. Smartphone remains the bread and butter. The company is recovering from the negative impact of a flooding last year and production and shipments are picking up, as witnessed from the latest shipment figures for May this year. Handset lens set and handset camera modules grew 83.6% and 40.8%, respectively, as volume shipments to a major Korean handset makers started and the Chinese smartphone market continues to boom. The company is also targeting increase in lens set self-sufficiency rate for modules, which will help improve profitability. Valuation at discount to peers. Based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts, the company is trading on 13.5x 12- month forward earnings, which is below a close peer Largan s (3008 TT) 17.6x. The company is also trading at discount to another HK-listed handset component manufacturer ACC (2018 HK, NR), which is trading at 17.3x 12-month forward PE based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue 1,310 1,818 2,499 3,984 5,813 Operating Profit Reported Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (CNY) DPS (CNY) BVPS (CNY) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Technology 25 June 2014 Not Rated Target price Last price (25 Jun 14) N/A HK$10.26 Upside/downside (%) N/A HSI Mkt cap (HK$bn/US$bn) 11.3/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 9.53 Free float (%) 61.6% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Jun-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) Absolute (US$, %) Relative to HSI (%) Source: Bloomberg Company background Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Limited designs and manufactures optical and optical related products. The Company's products include glass/plastic lenses, prisms, mobile phone camera modules, microscopes, surveying instruments, and other analytical instruments. Source: Bloomberg Max Gan SFC CE No.: BDA max.gan@guosen.com.hk Feb-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯舜宇光学科技 (2382 HK) 拉动增长的三驾马车舜宇光学科技正在与包括 Google,Samsung,Flexronics 和 MantisVision 在内的公司一同研发 3D 技术的产品. 公司在美国和欧洲的车载光学镜头市场有着较高的份额, 并正努力开拓延伸至日本与韩国的市场公司年初至今在智能手机的摄像头镜片与镜头模组类产品上的依旧表现不俗, 并计划通过提高镜片的产量供给自身的摄像镜头模组从而提高利润分析师所给出的估值预期低于同业公司 3D 技术即将兴起公司正在与多家战略合作方一同研发 3D 技术与相关的产品虽然公司并不预期相关产品能在短时间内给公司带来可观的利润, 但相信这将会成为未来消费性电子产品市场一个新的增长力类似的概念已经走出实验室, MantisVision 已成功研发 3D 扫描仪并将其用于工业用途车载镜头市场庞大舜宇光学约占有车载镜头镜片市场的 28.7% 的份额虽然全球的汽车市场 ( 预计 2014 年产量达 9 千万台 ) 小于智能手机的市场 ( 预计 2014 年达到产量达 12 亿部 ), 但若在未来 2-3 个摄像头成为新车标配后, 车载镜头的市场亦将达到万件相对较高的利润率使车载镜头镜片组在盈利上的会有较多的贡献公司现正供货于美国与欧洲的汽车生产商, 同时亦正努力发展与日本与韩国生产商的合作机会智能手机仍是主要业务核心从今年五月的装运数据来看, 公司的生产与装运已从去年的洪水中恢复并稳步上升得益于一家主要韩国手机制造商的订单与中国持续的需求增长, 手机镜头镜片与模组分别增长了 83.6% 与 40.8% 公司亦计划通过提高镜片的产量用于自身摄像头模组从而提高利润估值低于同业公司基于彭博上分析师的平均预测, 公司未来 12 个月的预期市盈率在 13.5 倍, 低于同业公司大立光电 (3008 TT) 的 17.6 倍, 亦低于另一家香港的手机组件制造商瑞声科技 (2018 HK, NR) 的 17.3 倍 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 营业额 1,310 1,818 2,499 3,984 5,813 经营盈利净利润实际盈利每股实际盈利 (CNY) 每股股息 (CNY) 每股账面价值 (CNY) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 中国 / 科技 2014 年 6 月 25 日未评级目标价 N/A 收盘价 (25 Jun 14) HK$10.26 Upside/downside (%) 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 11.3/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 9.53 流通量 (%) 61.6% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Jun-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 绝对回报 (US$, %) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) 舜宇光学科技集团有限公司从事光学产品和与光学相关产品的设计与生产该公司的产品包括玻璃 / 塑料镜片棱镜手机相机模组显微镜测量仪器以及其他分析仪器资料来源 : 彭博甘中辉证监会中央编号 :BDA max.gan@guosen.com.hk Feb-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3D is on its way Sunny Optical does not expect 3D product to provide meaningful near term contribution but the company is preparing for future opportunities.

While the management does not expect 3D products will provide meaningful revenue contribution in the near term, the company has made important strategic moves to help capturing potential

3 3D is on its way Sunny Optical does not expect 3D product to provide meaningful near term contribution but the company is preparing for future opportunities. Sunny Optical has been working on developing 3D optical products for smartphones and other smart devices. While the management does not expect 3D products will provide meaningful revenue contribution in the near term, the company has made important strategic moves to help capturing potential opportunities in the long term. Sunny Optical has named by Google (GOOGL US, NR) as one of the latter s partners in Project Tango, which focuses on the development of 3Drelated technologies. In Jan 2014, the company, together with Samsung ( KS, NR) and Flextronics (FLEX US, NR), invested in an Israeli company MantisVision, which specialized in the development of 3D imaging products. According to the management, the company has been working with MantisVision in the past and the strategic investment further strengthens the tie between the two companies. MantisVision has successfully developed a 3D imaging product for industrial application. However, since the product is for industrial use, the market potential may not be as large as an application in the consumer electronics market, such as 3D scanner embedded in smartphones. Samsung, Flextronics and Sunny Optical will be helping MantisVision to develop the technology further, particularly in the high-volume consumer electronics market. Figure 3 MantisVision s 3D handheld scanner Source: MantisVision, Guosen Securities(HK) Research 3D did not work out well on TV but 3D portable devices offer new opportunities. 28.7% global market share in vehicle lens sets. Gross margins are higher than other optical component products 3D had much fanfare particularly in TV when major TV brands like Samsung and LG are pushing it heavily. While 3D TV penetration has increased as prices fall, limited supply of 3D content remain a major barrier. A mass-market 3D scanner, particularly one that can be embedded into smartphones or other portable smart devices will provide new opportunities to the company. Vehicle lens sets is a sizeable market The company has a strong market position in lens sets for vehicles and, according to the company s estimate, it has 28.7% market share globally. The company s clients in this area include many tier-1 suppliers to automakers: Magna, Continental, Delphi, Autoliv, Panasonic, Fujitsu, etc. Currently, the company s major end-customers are the US and European automakers. Volume sales for vehicle lens sets are relatively small at ~7m units in 2013, which accounted for about 7% of the company s total lens set volume. Even if we exclude lens sets used internally for module production and only count those for external customers, the share was only ~12%. However, the company highlighted that gross margins of vehicle lens sets are much higher at 40% versus the overall 20% margin for the optical component division, which means earnings contribution from vehicle lens sets are more material to the company than the volume implies. Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Vehicle lens set market is a sizeable market Exploring potential business opportunities with Japanese and Korean automakers Another typical concern is the small volume of the global vehicle market. According to OICA, the global production of vehicles amounted to 87.3m in 2013, which represented about YoY 3% growth. If we assume 3% growth in this year, global auto production would be 90m vehicles in While this remains smaller than the 1.2bn smartphones shipments this year projected by IDC, with some high-end models are having 3-4 cameras onboard, the potential market size for camera lens sets could be in the range of m, which remains a sizeable market. Replacement market will offer further business opportunities to vehicle lens suppliers. The company entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Konica Minolta Optical Products (KMOP) and the company has taken over KMOP s production plant in Shanghai for Rmb12m. The cooperation also includes rights to use KMOP s patents, initially for a period of five years. An added benefit of the cooperation, according to Sunny Optical s management, is the potential in broadening its client base as KMOP has introduced the company to two major Japanese auto manufacturers for potential business opportunities. Through its relationship with the major Korean handset manufacturer, the company is also exploring potential business opportunities with Korean auto manufacturers. Figure 4 Global vehicle production m units YoY% (RHS) Source: OICA, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Smartphones remains the bread-and-butter business Handset lens sets and camera module business is recovering. China s booming smartphone market is helping the company on its bread-and-butter business. Sunny Optical s key domestic clients include most of the major mainland brands such as Huawei, Lenovo, Coolpad, Xiaomi, Oppo, etc. and the company mainly sell modules to its mainland clients. While handset camera module sales was slowed in the first two month of this year, the latest figures disclosed by the company showed that growth is accelerating. The shipment in May was a record level of 17.1m with YoY growth at 40.8%. The year-to-day growth was 18% and the company is targeting 25% growth for the full year. Figure 5 Handset module shipment growth (YoY%) (5.0) (2.4) Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4

Targeting to improve lens set self-sufficiency rate in module production. Another area of concerns is the falling lens set self-sufficiency rate for modules.

5 Targeting to improve lens set self-sufficiency rate in module production. Another area of concerns is the falling lens set self-sufficiency rate for modules. It was over 90% in 2009 and, due to the strong demand for modules, in-house supply of lens sets was lagging behind and the self-sufficiency rate dropped to 22% in However, the company is boosting lens set capacity and targeting a 30% self-sufficiency rate in this year and 40-50% longer term. The increase in the degree of vertical integration will help improve overall profitability. The management also indicated that volume shipment of handset lens set to a major Korean handset maker also started in this year, after small batches were shipped last year when the company s production was interrupted by a flooding in the Zhejiang area. Figure 6 Lens set self-sufficiency rate for modules 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 93% 75% 64% 36% 22% 21% YTD Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research A healthy balance sheet a concern Some of the surplus cash is invested in structured financial products. Consensus valuation at discount to peers The sub-heading of this section is not a typo. The company has been in net cash position since its IPO in In 2008, a year following its IPO, which raised Rmb705m net, the company placed Rmb291m in structured financial products to enhance return. Since then, with the exception of 2009, the company continued to place a sizeable portion of its surplus cash in structured financial products, including entrusted loans. At the end of last year, the amount stood at Rmb983m, of which Rmb565m was guaranteed by banks and Rmb773m matured after 2013 ended and the remaining portion will mature before the end of this year. While the company did not experience material loss from its investments in financial products, the move may still cause some investors concerns. Valuation at discount to close peer Largan Based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts, the company is trading on 13.5x 12-month forward earnings, which is below a close peer Largan s (3008 TT) 17.6x. The company is also trading at discount to another HK-listed handset component manufacturer ACC (2018 HK, NR), which is trading at 17.3x 12-month forward PE based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. Figure 7 Consensus 12-month forward PE range comparison Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Risk factors Risks: Slowdown in smartphone market, exposure to structured financial product and impact from natural disaster The company has substantial exposure to the smartphone market, especially China s smartphone market, any slowdown in the smartphone market, particularly in China, will have negative impact on the company. The company also exposed to risk associate with its investments in structured financial products mentioned in the previous section. The company s factories were hit by flooding in 2013 and similar natural disaster remains a threat to the company s operations. While losses from damaged plant, equipment and inventories in 2013, which amounted to Rmb73.5m, were largely covered by insurance, the company still exposed to loss of businesses due to interruption in operations. Company Background Sunny Optical was founded in 1984 and listed in Hong Kong in The company s key products incl. optical lenses, lens sets, camera modules, 3D interaction motion products, camera modules for CCTV and optical instrument such as microscope and spectrum analyzers. Headquartered in Zhejiang, the company also operates plants in Zhongshan, Shanghai, Xinyang and Tianjin. The company s products are used in smartphones, digital cameras, vehicles and other optical instruments. Figure 8 12M forward PE band chart Figure 9 12M forward PB band chart HK$ Feb-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 max 19.0X PE(x) 13.1X +1sd 11.7X avg 8.1X -1sd 4.6X min 3.5X Feb-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 max 3.1X PB(x) 2.3X +1sd 1.9X avg 1.2X -1sd 0.5X min 0.3X Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Financial Ratios 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue 1,310 1,818 2,499 3,984 5,813 Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales (1,036) (1,426) (1,976) (3,243) (4,846) Operating profit growth (%) Gross profit Reported profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) Underlying profit growth (%) Operating expenses (202) (250) (313) (378) (505) Underlying EPS growth (%) Operating profit Dividend growth (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Gross profit margin (%) Finance income Operating profit margin (%) Finance expenses (2) (4) (3) (3) (7) Underlying profit margin (%) Associates & JCE 0 (5) (4) (4) (1) Net debt/equity (%) (49.7) (49.2) (38.5) (26.6) (46.9) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) (38.6) (35.8) (27.0) (17.0) (28.7) Taxation (13) (27) (38) (58) (64) Current ratio (%) Non-controlling interests Dividend payout (%) Net profit Interest cover (x) Other Adjustments on UP Dividend cover (x) Underlying Profit Dupont Analysis 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Source: Guosen Research estimates Tax burden (%) Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Cashflow (RMBmn) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income (20) (27) (44) (26) (18) Non-current assets Change in working capital (36) (40) (228) (215) (18) Inventories Tax paid (8) (27) (39) (55) (52) Debtors & prepayments ,172 Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash Operating activities Others ,004 Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (76) (74) (200) (295) (319) Current assets 1,284 1,527 1,822 2,267 3,766 Free cash flow (128) (39) 349 Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities ,052 1,782 Other investing cashflow 294 (613) 200 (5) (632) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities 248 (664) 61 (229) (926) Others New loans raised (31) Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans Net assets 1,449 1,528 1,681 1,932 2,860 Dividends paid (20) (20) (44) (71) (105) Share capital Other financing cashflow (4) (54) (22) (38) 556 Premium & reserves 1,319 1,398 1,564 1,824 2,745 Financing activities (7) (16) (97) (86) 838 Shareholders' funds 1,416 1,496 1,661 1,922 2,850 Inc/(dec) in cash 371 (495) 37 (58) 580 Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year Total equity 1,449 1,528 1,681 1,932 2,860 Foreign exchange effect (1) Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 7

8 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclo sable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rathe r than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will se ek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the li sted companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the part icular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advise d to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such infor mation and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdictio n where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 8

9 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 9

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2