Microsoft Word - TRT Tech

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洛罗
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1 Company Research 21 March 2014 Tong Ren Tang Tech(1666.HK) Recognized brand delivers continuing growth BUY Target price: HK$30.09 Healthcare We think that the short term results fluctuation would not affect the long term value of TRT Tech. One of best-known brand in TCM sector would be strong support of TRT Tech s continuing growth with increasing awareness of healthcare, wealth level and aged population in China, while the new business lines inject new energy. We estimate a 3 year CAGR of 22% and 21% for its top line and bottom line. We revised up our target price to HK$30.09 from HK$27.2 based on 25x FY15, while the PEG ratio is higher than 1 because of its strong brand name and mature operation experience. Analyst Helena Qiu SFC CE No.:AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk Performance 140 Results slightly below expectation. TRT Tech reported a 18.9% YoY growth in sales to RMB2, 911m (our estimate RMB2, 978m) while net profit increased 18.1% YoY to RMB390m (our estimate RMB425m). The sales of TRT Tech healthcare business line in mainland is slightly below our expectation while the drop of gross margin decreased to 49.5% from 50.9% impacted the bottom line as well. We noticed that the company reported a 29.5% YoY growth to RMB312m in staff salary and wages, which may be impacted by the increase of staff number and staff salary. Also, it reported a 78.7% increase in R&D to RMB21m. E Jiao product could be new growth driver. TRT Tech owns 69.8% of TRT TS, which focus on producing E Jiao (Donkey-hide gelatin) related products with designed production capacity of 633 tons per year. In January 2014, we see the retail price of TRT brand E Jiao increased 30% to RMB898/500g from RMB690/500g. We think that E Jiao and E Jiao related product may be a key growth driver in coming years. We estimate the sales of TRT TS would be RMB93m, RMB231m, and RMB347m for FY14,FY15, and FY16 respectively with sales volume of 94 tons, 234 tons, and 351 tons (estimate ex-factory price of RMB494/500g) HK H S I Beauty care arm in strong growth. TRT WM (TRT s beauty care arm) benefited from expanding product line and increasing sales force, it reported a strong 61.4% YoY to RMB86m. We expect TRT WM will continue to deliver strong sales growth going forward. We forecast sales to grow 35% to RMB116m in 2014, 30% to RMB150m in 2015 and 20% to RMB180m in Traditional business keeps 15% growth. TRT Tech is making effort to improve its product structure for its mainland healthcare business line. Sales of its blockbuster drugs Liuwei Dihuang Pills series increased 21.73%; Ganmao Qingre Grannule series increased 39.94% while Niuhuang Jiedu Tablets series decreased. We did not find a consistent trend for the growth momentum of its product line. However, with strongly recognized brand name, We think it is very likely that its traditional business could keep 15% growth. Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) 24.2 Shares Outstanding(m) 640 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 15,497 Free float (%) 49.1 Average Daily Turnover HK$20m 52 Week Range 29.0/21.0 Controlling Shareholder TRT Group&company(47.6%) BVPS (HK$) 6.63 Debt ratio (%) NA Financial Summary Year to Dec 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue (RMB m) 2,447 2,911 3,636 4,483 5,311 Operating Profit (RMB m) Underlying Profit (RMB m) Underlying EPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告同仁堂科技 (1666.HK) 品牌持续发力我们认为公司短期的业绩波动并不影响其长期投资价值受益于强大的品牌影响力, 同仁堂科技旗下的新产品更容易受到市场认可随着中国人的保健意识的提升, 财富水平的提高, 老年人口的增多, 我们认为同仁堂科技可以保持持续增长我们估计公司未来三年销售收入和净利润的年均增长分别为 22% 和 21% 基于 2015 年 25 倍市盈率, 我们提升目标价, 由 27.2 港元至港元再次推荐买入业绩略微低于预期 : 同仁堂科技 2013 年的收入同比增长 18.9% 至人民币 29.1 亿元 ( 我们的预计 29.8 亿元 ), 同时, 公司的净利润同比增长 18.1% 为人民币 3.9 亿元 ( 我们的预计人民币 4.2 亿元 ) 同仁堂科技中国大陆地区的药品和保健品销售收入略低于预期, 而毛利率有 50.9% 降到 49.5% 则影响了公司的净利润情况我们看到公司的员工工资增长了 29.5% 为人民币 3.12 亿元, 估计是受到员工数量和平均工资水平提升的影响另外, 公司的研发开支增加了 78.7% 为人民币 0.2 亿元阿胶可能成为公司成长的新推动力 : 同仁堂科技持股同仁堂唐山公司共计 69.8% 的股权唐山公司的主要业务为阿胶, 其产能为每年 633 吨 2014 年 1 月, 我们看到同仁堂品牌的阿胶价格提升了 30% 从每 500 克人民币 690 元至每 500 克人民币 898 元我们认为阿胶和阿胶系列的产品可能成为公司新的增长点我们估计唐山公司年的销售收入分别为人民币 0.9 亿元人民币 2.3 亿元人民币 3.5 亿元 ( 估计出厂价每 500 克人民币 494 元 ) 护肤品业务线高速增长 : 受益于产品品种的增多和销售团队的扩大, 同仁堂麦尔海 ( 主要经营护肤品业务 ) 在 2013 年实现了 61.4% 的增长达到销售额人民币 0.86 亿元我们认为同仁堂麦尔海将继续保持强劲的增长我们预计其 2014 年 2015 年 2016 年将分别增长 35% 30% 25% 至人民币 1.16 亿元人民币 1.5 亿元人民币 1.8 亿元传统药品和保健品业务保持 15% 的增长 : 同仁堂科技正在改良其中国大陆药品和保健品业务的产品结构其主导产品六味地黄丸系列的销售额增长了 21.73%, 感冒清热颗粒系列增长了 39.94%, 但是牛黄解毒片系列则下降了我们还没有找到同仁堂科技传统产品线的增长规律, 但是我们认为, 该块业务应该可以在未来 3 年保持年均 15% 的增速分析师买入目标价 : HK$30.09 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :.:AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 股价表现资料来源 : 彭博股票数据 1666 HK H S I 医药保健收盘价 ( 港币 $) 24.2 流通股本 ( 百万 ) 640 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 )* 15,497 流通量 (%) 49.1 日均成交额 HK$20m 52 周最高 / 最低 29.0/21.0 主要控股股东同仁堂集团及同仁堂股份 (47.6%) 每股净资产 ( 港币 $) 6.63 负债率 (%) NA 盈利预测截至 31/ A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 ( 人民币百万 ) 2,447 2,911 3,636 4,483 5,311 经营盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 实际盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 每股实际盈利 ( 人民币 ) 每股账面价值 ( 人民币 ) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 :

3 Table 1: TRT TS revenue estimate RMBm 2014F 2015F 2016F Revenue Sales volume (500Gram) 187, , ,125 Ex-Factory price (RMB/500g) Retail price Source:Guosen Securities (HK) Table 2: Forecast sales of each main business line Business Sales (RMBm) % of Total(%) YoY Growth(%) Line TRT CM 2,559 2,942 3, TRT WM , TRT Tech mainland TRT TS (E Jiao) Others Total 3,636 4,483 5, Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Financial Summary Profit & Loss (RMB m) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F TRT Tech Revenue growth (%) TRT CM Operating profit growth (%) TRT WM Dianorm Biotech Reported profit growth (%) TRT TS (E Jiao) Underlying profit growth (%) others Underlying EPS growth (%) Revenue Dividend growth (%) Cost of sales (1203) (1469) (1763) (2164) (2571) Dividend payout (%) Gross profit Gross profit margin (%) Other net income (9) (8) Operating profit margin (%) SG&A expenses (755) (826) (1063) (1275) (1494) Underlying profit margin (%) Operating profit ROE (%) Finance costs 1 (10) ROA (%) Associates & JCE (1) (1) Net debt/equity (%) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) Taxation (82) (92) (139) (179) (214) Current ratio (%) Non-controlling interests (69) (113) (182) (265) (326) Interest cover (x) Net Profit Dividend cover (x) Balance Sheet (RMB m) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Cash Flows (RMB m) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income (1) 10 (7) (9) (11) Non-current assets Others (4) (2) Inventories Change in working capital (31) (332) (279) (156) (332) Debtors & prepayments Tax paid (84) (92) (139) (179) (214) Bank deposits & cash Operating activities Others Purchase of non current assets (121) (182) (300) (300) (300) Current assets Disposal of non current assets Bank & other borrowings Associates & JCE (net) (13) Trade & payables Interest received 9 0 Taxation others 2 (391) Current liabilities Investing activities (110) (586) (300) (300) (300) Bank & other borrowings Issue of new shares Others Issue of CB Non-current liabilities Dividends paid (112) (147) (160) (224) (274) Net assets Others (8) (69) Share capital Financing activities (120) 1475 (160) (224) (274) Premium & reserves Inc/(dec) in cash Shareholders' funds Cash at beginning of year Non-controlling interests Foreign exchange effect Total equity Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 5

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 6

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)