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1 Company Research Company update Lifetech (1302 HK) Further step with Medtronic We think that Lifetech s further alliance with Medtronic shows the strong recognition of Medtronic to the capability of Lifetech while short-term sacrifices in profit is for long-term benefit. Our DCF valuation derived a target price of HK$ We upgrade our recommendation to BUY from NEUTRAL. Expansion of alliance to pacemaker Lifetech announced on 28 th July 2014 that it will expand its alliance with Medtronic for developing pacemaker market in China. Under the New Transaction Agreements, Medtronic will provide Lifetech with: 1) non-exclusive, royaltybearing, non-transferable licenses to know-how and other intellectual property (royalty fee of around 12% of total revenue); 2) certain consulting services (up to RMB641m service fee based on the actual fully burdened cost with payment period of 10 years); 3) certain equipment and components (pay for a supply price); 4) manufacturing capabilities; 5) exclusively marketing, promotion and distribution of pacemaker made by Lifetech. Medtronic is a leader in global pacemaker market Medtronic was the first to introduce the battery-operated pacemaker into the world in So far, Medtronic takes about 50% of the pacemaker market. In 2013, Sales of Metronic s pacing systems (mainly pacemaker) was US$1.9b, which decreased 3.6% from Omar Ishrak, Medtronic Chairman and CEO, said to the media that they want to partner with Lifetech to bring the lifesaving technology to Chinese patients while he expect that pacemakers could meet the healthcare needs of significantly more Chinese patients. We think the alliance shows that Medtronic want to get more involvement in emerging market for improving its penetration to emerging market. China has low pacemaker implant rate Our research shows that the pacemaker implant rate in China was only about 31 out of one million people, which translated to only around 40,300 pacemaker users. Zhang Shu, famous cardiovascular specialist in Fuwai hospital, said that there should be around 1m patients with need of pacemaker. So far, only 5 providers of pacemaker in China with only 1 domestic player. Revision of our estimate We expect that Lifetech is likely to launch its pacemaker in China in 2017 with mature technology from Medtronic, earlier than expected year in the Announcement. We estimate that pacemakers would make contribution of RMB60m in 2017, RMB120m in 2018, and RMB240m in We cut our net profit estimate of 2014 to 2016 to RMB11m, RMB106m, and RMB195m from RMB66m, RMB190m, and RMB281m affected by the service fee paid to Medtronic. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31(RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue ,067 Operating Profit (12) Reported Profit 32 (66) (11) Underlying Profit (11) Underlying EPS (CNY) (0.02) DPS (CNY) BVPS (CNY) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Health Care 29 July 2014 BUY Target price HK$16.67 Last price (28 Jul 14) HK$13.64 Upside/downside (%) 22.2 HSI Mkt cap (HK$mn/US$mn) 6,820/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn).5 Free float (%) 39.4% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Jul-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (0.2) Absolute (US$, %) (0.1) Relative to HSI (%) (5.3) Source: Bloomberg Company background Lifetech Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures and markets minimally invasive interventional medical devices for cardiovascular and peripheral vascular diseases and disorders.the Company produces congenital heart defect occluders, vena cava filters, stent grafts, balloon catheters, and vascular plugs. Source: Bloomberg Helena Qiu SFC CE No.: AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk Mar-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 230% 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯先健科技 (1302 HK) 与美敦力的合作更上一层楼我们认为战略联盟的扩大充分显示了美敦力对先健科技能力的认可牺牲短线的利润可以换来长线的收益我们的 DCF 估值法, 获得对应的目标价为港元我们上调先健科技的投资评级从中性至买入战略联盟扩大至起搏器先健科技于 2014 年 7 月 28 日公告其与美敦力的战略联盟扩大至在中国制造并商业化起搏器及心脏导线产品根据新交易协议, 美敦力将向先健科技提供 : 1) 非独家附带特许权不可转让的专门知识及其他知识产品的许可 ( 特许权费约为销售收入的 12%);2) 若干咨询服务 ( 基于提供服务产生的实际上完全承担的费用, 收取总计达到人民币 6.41 亿元服务费, 分 10 年支付 )3) 若干设备及零部件 ( 按供应价格支付 );4) 制造能力 ;5) 独家营销推广及分销先健科技生产的起搏器美敦力是全球最大的起搏器供应商美敦力于 1957 年首次在全球推出电池驱动的体外起搏器到目前为止, 美敦力占据约 50% 的起搏器市场 2013 年美敦力的起搏系统销售额为 19 亿美元, 较 2012 年下跌了 3.6% 美敦力的主席兼首席执行官 Omar Ishrak 向媒体表示他们希望和先健科技合作将挽救生命的技术带给中国的病人他希望有需要的中国病人可以用上起搏器我们认为该战略联盟也显示了美敦力希望更深入开拓新兴市场, 提升其在新兴市场的市场份额中国的起搏器植入率低我们经过研究发现中国的起搏器植入率每 100 万人仅植入 31 个, 这就是说只有约 40,300 个起搏器使用者阜外医院著名心血管病专家张澍认为中国有约 100 万病人需要使用起搏器目前中国仅有 5 家起搏器企业获得相关产品批文, 其中仅 1 家本土企业预测调整基于美敦力先进而成熟的技术, 我们认为先健科技有可能较其公告提及的时间更早获得相关批文, 我们预期其于 2017 年推出起搏器产品我们预计起搏器对公司的收入贡献分别为 2017 年人民币 6 千万元 2018 年人民币 1.2 亿元及 2019 年人民币 2.4 亿元先健科技将从 2014 年开始支付服务费予美敦力, 因此我们调低我们的净利润预测至 2014 年的 - 人民币 1.1 千万 2015 年的人民币 1.06 元及 2016 年的人民币 2.81 亿元中国 / 医疗保健 2014 年 7 月 29 日买入目标价 HK$16.67 收盘价 (28 Jul 14) HK$13.64 Upside/downside (%) 22.2 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$mn) 6,820/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn).5 流通量 (%) 39.4% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Jul-13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (0.2) 绝对回报 (US$, %) (0.1) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (5.3) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Mar-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 230% 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 先健科技有限公司开发生产和销售微创介入心血管及周边血管疾病和失调的医疗器械公司产品包括先天性心脏缺损封堵器腔静脉过滤器覆膜支架气囊导管及血管塞资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31( 人民币百万 ) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 ,067 经营盈利 (12) 净利润 32 (66) (11) 实际盈利 (11) 每股实际盈利 (CNY) (0.02) 每股股息 (CNY) 每股账面价值 (CNY) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 Pacemaker definition and function Definition Function A pacemaker is a medical device that uses electrical impulses, delivered by electrodes contacting the heart muscles, to regulate the beating of the heart. The primary purpose of a pacemaker is to maintain an adequate heart rate, either because the heart's native pacemaker is not fast enough, or there is a block in the heart's electrical conduction system. Figure 4 Picture of pacemaker Figure 5 sales of pacemaker of key global pacemaker players US$m Notes Pacing system (Medtronic) Pacemaker system (St. Jude Medical) Cardiac Rhythm Management (Boston Scientific) 1,987 1,901 1,978 1,906 1,220 1,210 1,111 1,042 2,180 2,087 1,908 1,886 include defibrillator and pacemaker Figure 6 DCF valuation reference table Terminal growth WACC 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 12.50% % % % % Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Figure 7 Free Cash Flow forecast Y/F 31 Dec (RMBm) 13A 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F EBIT , , , , , ,662.2 D & A Interest income Tax paid Dividend received Gross cashflow , , , , ,037.0 Chgs. In working cap. Other operating cash flow Operating cashflow , , , , ,620.2 Capex Free Cashflow , , , ,470.2 Figure 8 12M forward PE band chart Figure 9 12M forward PB band chart HK$ 1, , , Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec max X +1sd X PE(x) 126.0X avg 356.4X -1sd min X X Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 max 21.9X PB(x) 21.9X +1sd 15.5X avg 10.5X -1sd 5.6X min 2.7X Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue from Red Can WLJ Revenue growth (%) Pharma & Other revenue Operating profit growth (%) 230 (19.1) (130) (1,195) 82.1 Revenue ,067 Reported profit growth (%) 173 (303) (82.7) (1,038) 83.3 Cost of sales (36) (42) (66) (127) (181) Underlying profit growth (%) 279 (63.5) (196) (1,038) 83.3 Gross profit Underlying EPS growth (%) 216 (66.2) (196) (1,038) 83.3 Other income/(expense) 10 0 (86) (100) (104) Dividend growth (%) Operating expenses (103) (146) (226) (364) (534) Gross profit margin (%) Operating profit (12) Operating profit margin (%) (3.4) Other non operating inc/(exp) 0 (78) Underlying profit margin (%) (3.1) Finance income Net debt/equity (%) (66.9) (97.4) (20.0) Finance expenses 0 (10) (2) (2) (2) Net debt/total assets (%) (54.5) (43.4) (8.2) Associates & JCE (10) (11) Current ratio (%) Profit before taxation 42 (53) (14) Dividend payout (%) Taxation (9) (12) 3 (27) (49) Interest cover (x) 4.2 (6.6) Non-controlling interests (1) 0 0 (1) (2) Dividend cover (x) Net profit 32 (66) (11) Dupont Analysis 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Other Adjustments on UP Tax burden (%) Underlying Profit (11) Interest burden (%) 79.9 (126) Source: Guosen Research estimates Operating profit margin (%) (3.4) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) 9.6 (14.9) (2.1) ROE (%) 11.5 (24.9) (5.0) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets Operating profit 42 (53) (14) Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income 0 (4) Non-current assets Change in working capital (4) (1) (25) (65) (62) Inventories Tax paid (9) (12) 3 (27) (49) Debtors & prepayments Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash Operating activities (30) Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (10) (14) (150) (200) (150) Current assets Free cash flow (180) (136) 25 Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) (22) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities Other investing cashflow 2 (114) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (29) (126) (150) (200) (150) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans 0 (35) Net assets Dividends paid Share capital Other financing cashflow (2) (2) (2) Premium & reserves Financing activities (2) 148 (2) Shareholders' funds Inc/(dec) in cash (181) Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year Total equity Foreign exchange effect Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 7

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2