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1 Company Research Company update Baiyunshan Pharm (874 HK) Development on track 1Q14 results were slightly impacted by higher tax rate. Overall business development remains on track. Red Can WLJ is wellprepared for the coming 2014 World Cup although market competition would be intense. We maintain our target price of HK$36.24 based on 30x earnings of WLJ and 16x earnings of its pharmaceutical and others business in FY15. Reiterate BUY 1Q14 results affected by higher tax rate. Revenue increased 12.6% YoY to RMB4,675.7m while net profit increased 21.2% YoY to RMB317.7m. Gross profit increased 10.1% YoY to RMB1,578.2m while profit before tax increased 28.4% YoY to RMB417.8m. Operating cost increased 13.8% YoY due to cost increase in Pharmaceutical business while SG&A expenses were under good control which increased only 6.8% YoY. The income tax expenses increased 58.5% YoY because major asset reorganization temporarily affected the registration for part of tax relief. Red Can WLJ herbal tea is well prepared for 2014 World Cup. According to news released by CNCIC, a Chinese statistic institution specializing in the retail and consumer sector, WLJ brand herbal tea was the largest player and took 49.93% market share in China s herbal tea market in Baiyunshan had announced that it entered into co operative agreement with Tencent for the joint provision of online and offline interactive activities in relation to World Cup It has also designed professional marketing strategy. We believe the coming World Cup and the active marketing strategy will help further growth of WLJ. New developments of pharmaceutical business. Baiyunshan plans to launch Generic Viagra (drug for the treatment of erectile dysfunction) and Enalapril/Felodipine Tablets (drug for the treatment of hypertension). The company has submitted the related documents and is waiting for approval of CFDA. In addition, the company is now actively working with over 10 hospitals in Guangdong province for managing their drug stores. We think the launch of new products and a closer working relationship with hospitals will bring positive developments for its pharmaceutical business earnings revised down slightly. We slightly revised our 2014 earnings forecast to reflect the higher tax rate. Net profit forecast in 2014 is revised down by 1.6% to RMB1, 196m from 1,216m. As the major asset reorganization completed in 2013 already, we expect tax rate should return to normal in 2015 and therefore keep our 2015 forecast at RMB1, 694m. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 12,063 17,608 20,662 24,654 28,487 Operating Profit ,310 1,901 2,436 Reported Profit ,196 1,694 2,122 Underlying Profit ,196 1,694 2,122 Underlying EPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Health Care 29 April 2014 BUY Target price HK$36.24 Last price(29 Apr 14) HK$22.95 Upside/downside(%) 57.9 HSI Mkt cap(hk$bn/us$bn) 35.3/ week range (HK$bn) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 5.15 Free float(%) 45.2% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Apr 13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (10.2) (8.6) (8.0) Absolute(US$, %) (10.2) (8.6) (8.0) Relative to HSI(%) (11.9) (10.0) (7.5) Source: Bloomberg Company background Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company also wholesales, retails, imports, and exports Western and Chinese pharmaceutical products and various medical apparatus. Source: Bloomberg Helena Qiu SFC CE No.: AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk Dec 13 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告报告理由白云山 (874 HK) 在良性发展的轨道上公司 2014 年 1 季度的净利润受到较平时略高的税率的轻微影响, 公司整体情况良性发展尽管要面对激烈的市场竞争, 红罐王老吉为 2014 年世界杯的到来做好了准备我们维持目标价港元, 该目标价是基于红罐王老吉 2015 年的 30 倍市盈率和药品和其他业务的 16 倍市盈率重申买入 1 季度的净利润受到较高的税率的影响营业收入同比增长 12.6% 为人民币 46.8 亿元, 净利润同比增长 21.2% 为人民币 3.2 亿元毛利同比增长 10.1% 为人民币 15.8 亿元, 税前利润同比增长 28.4% 为人民币 4.2 亿元营业成本和税金及附加同比增长 13.8%, 主要因为制药业务的成本上升销售和管理费用控制得较好, 同比仅增长 6.8% 受到公司重大资产重组的影响, 部分税收优惠无法快速完成登记而短暂的影响到税率造成 1 季度所得税费用同比增长 58.5% 红罐王老吉已经准备好迎接 2014 年世界杯根据由零售和消费品专业统计机构中华全国商业信息中心发布的消息, 王老吉品牌凉茶在 2013 年为全国最大的凉茶品牌, 市占率为 49.93% 白云山已经公布其与腾讯达成战略合作协议, 联合打造 2014 年世界杯竞猜线上和线下互动活动同时, 公司也设计了专业的市场营销策略我们相信世界杯的营销和其他积极的市场营销活动将帮助王老吉继续增长医药业务有新发展白云山有计划推出万艾可 ( 俗称伟哥 ) 的仿制药和依拉普利非洛地平缓释片 ( 用于治疗高血压 ) 相关文件已经报中国药监局, 正在等待药监局的批文另外, 公司正积极与超过 10 家广东省的医院合作, 进行药房托管服务我们认为新产品的推出和与医院更紧密的合作将对公司的医药业务板块的发展有积极的推动作用 2014 年净利润预计轻微调低因为较高的税率我们轻微调低对公司 2014 年的净利润的预计 2014 年净利润预计略微调低 1.6% 至人民币 12 亿元公司 2013 年已经完成重大资产重组, 我们预期税率在 2015 年可以恢复正常, 因此我们维持对 2015 年的净利润预计为人民币 16.9 亿元中国 / 医疗保健 2014 年 4 月 29 日买入目标价 HK$36.24 收盘价 (29 Apr 14) HK$22.95 Upside/downside(%) 57.9 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 35.3/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 5.15 流通量 (%) 45.2% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Apr 13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (10.2) (8.6) (8.0) 绝对回报 (US$, %) (10.2) (8.6) (8.0) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (11.9) (10.0) (7.5) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Dec 13 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 广州白云山医药集团股份有限公司透过其附属公司从事中成药的制造和销售和西药中成药中药材和医疗器械仪器的贸易资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 12,063 17,608 20,662 24,654 28,487 经营盈利 ,310 1,901 2,436 净利润 ,196 1,694 2,122 实际盈利 ,196 1,694 2,122 每股实际盈利 (RMB) 每股股息 (RMB) 每股账面价值 (RMB) 市净率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 HK$ Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jan 13 Sep 13 max 30.8X +1sd 25.1X PE(x) 20.6X avg 18.1X 1sd 11.1X min 7.5X Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jan 13 Sep 13 max 4.7X +1sd 3.6X PB(x) 3.4X avg 2.4X 1sd 1.3X min 0.9X Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research 29 April

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Red Can WLJ Revenue growth (%) Pharma &others Operating profit growth (%) Revenue 12,063 17,608 20,662 24,654 28,487 Reported profit growth (%) Cost of sales (8,340) (11,955) (13,597) (15,879) (18,136) Underlying profit growth (%) Gross profit 3,723 5,654 7,065 8,775 10,351 Underlying EPS growth (%) Other income/(expense) Dividend growth (%) (4.5) Operating expenses (3,059) (4,713) (5,755) (6,875) (7,915) Gross profit margin (%) Operating profit ,310 1,901 2,436 Operating profit margin (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Underlying profit margin (%) Finance income Net debt/equity (%) (7.8) (20.6) (21.2) (25.9) (31.8) Finance expenses (50) (28) (37) (41) (46) Net debt/total assets (%) (4.6) (11.5) (12.0) (14.9) (18.8) Associates & JCE Current ratio (%) Profit before taxation 881 1,229 1,542 2,163 2,719 Dividend payout (%) Taxation (114) (222) (315) (431) (552) Interest cover (x) Non controlling interests (38) (27) (31) (38) (45) Dividend cover (x) Net profit ,196 1,694 2,122 Dupont Analysis 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Other Adjustments on UP 0 (12) Tax burden (%) Underlying Profit ,196 1,694 2,122 Interest burden (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets 1,592 1,732 2,059 2,353 2,618 Operating profit 937 1,262 1,579 2,204 2,766 Associates & JCE 1,717 1,972 1,972 1,972 1,972 Depreciation & amortization Others 734 1,246 1,235 1,224 1,214 Interest income Non current assets 4,043 4,950 5,266 5,549 5,804 Change in working capital (324) (379) (364) Inventories 2,066 2,246 2,533 2,958 3,379 Tax paid (114) (222) (315) (431) (552) Debtors & prepayments 2,146 3,095 3,558 4,228 4,875 Other operating cashflow (287) (348) Bank deposits & cash 1,114 1,919 2,136 2,847 3,887 Operating activities 999 1,339 1,124 1,611 2,095 Others Purchase of non current assets (Capex) (170) (350) (500) (500) (500) Current assets 5,352 7,299 8,266 10,073 12,180 Free cash flow ,111 1,595 Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non current assets Trade & payables 1,157 1,601 1,755 2,049 2,340 Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others 1,482 2,536 2,809 3,231 3,642 Dividends received Current liabilities 3,474 5,050 5,476 6,193 6,896 Other investing cashflow 23 (7) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (66) (324) (500) (500) (500) Others New loans raised Non current liabilities Repayment of loans (1,229) (750) Net assets 5,756 7,022 7,879 9,253 10,912 Dividends paid (186) (56) (370) (359) (508) Share capital 811 1,291 1,291 1,291 1,291 Other financing cashflow 9 7 (37) (41) (46) Premium & reserves 4,755 5,540 6,366 7,701 9,315 Financing activities (446) (212) (407) (400) (554) Shareholders' funds 5,566 6,832 7,658 8,993 10,607 Inc/(dec) in cash ,041 Non controlling interests Cash at beginning of year 626 1,114 1,919 2,136 2,847 Total equity 5,756 7,022 7,879 9,253 10,912 Foreign exchange effect Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year 1,114 1,919 2,136 2,847 3,887 Source: Guosen Research estimates 29 April

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment 29 April

6 recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 29 April

7 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 29 April

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2