Sunny Optical 2382

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Sunny Optical 2382"

投冉
5 years ago
Views:

1 Company Research 4 November 2013 AAC Technologies(2018.HK) Facing headwinds AAC s 3Q underlying net profit of RMB$607m was slightly below our expectation mainly due to product transition of its major customers. We cut our FY13-14E EPS by 7-10% on slower growth in acoustic business, product mix shift and declining margin. We downgrade AAC to NEUTRAL and cut our TP to HK$35 from HK$48 based on an 11x FY15 P/E compared with 16x previously. Price capped for high-end smart devices in the near term. 3Q13 revenue rose 8% qoq contributed by higher ASP. However, we expect global smartphone shipment growth would slow down given the relatively high ~60% penetration rate in the US. Sound quality is already good enough for new high-end smartphones and there was no upgrade in acoustic components in iphone5s and ipad Air/Mini2. In addition, ASP growth might further be capped by increasing competition from Goertek. Margin pressure from tapping into mid-to-low end market. 3Q margin dropped to 42.5% from 42.8% in 2Q. AAC is actively designing acoustic platform for various clients. However, a more diversified customer base means lower product standardization in short-term, hence smaller economies of scale. We expect blended 4Q margin would drop further, but maintain at above 40% going forward. Non-acoustic segment sees no near term benefit. AAC focuses on developing RF antenna and optical components. Given that the existing optical space (especially for 5MP camera modules) is crowded with multiple players (like Sunny Optical, O-film and Truly), AAC could hardly enjoy incremental benefit in the near term. We don t expect its wafer-level lens development to breakthrough until the adoption by mainstream smart devices (say iphone 6). Senior Analyst NEUTRAL Target price: HK$35 Bill Fan, CPA, CFA SFC CE No.:AUT Bill.fan@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Bloomberg Key Data Asia Technology Price(HK$) Shares Outstanding(m) 1,228 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 41,077 Free float (%) Average Daily Turnover HK$185m 52 Week Range 25.05/47.95 Controlling Shareholder Benjamin Pan (40.79%) BVPS (RMB$) 5.4 Debt ratio (%) 9.5 Downgrade to NEUTRAL; cut TP to HK$35. Given that near term upside may be limited by saturated high-end market and there could be margin dilution from entering into mid-low end market, we lower our valuation benchmark of FY15 P/E from 16x to 11x. This translates into a new TP of HKD$35. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL from Buy. Financial Summary Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (RMB m) 4,060 6,283 8,330 10,160 12,001 Operating Profit (RMB m) 1,180 1,952 2,366 2,814 3,336 Reported Profit (RMB m) 1,036 1,763 2,125 2,555 3,033 Underlying Profit (RMB m) 1,036 1,763 2,125 2,555 3,033 Underlying EPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告瑞声科技 (2018.HK) 面临逆风瑞声科技公布第三季度实际盈利为人民币 6.07 亿元, 略低于预期, 主因其主要客户产品正处于过渡期基于公司声学业务增长放缓产品结构转变需时及毛利率下降等因素, 我们下调公司评级至中性, 并调低 FY13-14 每股盈利 7-10% 估值从 FY15 的 16 倍 P/E 下调至 11 倍, 对应目标价从 48 港元下调至 35 港元高级分析师范阳, CPA, CFA 证监会中央编号 :.:AUT 股价表现中性目标价 : HK$35 亚洲科技行业高端智能终端短期上行空间有限公司第三季收入按季增长 8%, 主因产品均价提高我们预计, 全球智能手机出货量增长将受其渗透率提高至饱和水平而放慢 ( 现时美国渗透率约为 60%) 高端智能手机音质已经很好, 我们在 iphone5s 及 ipad Air/mini2 中未见其声学器件有重大升级同时, 产品均价的增长可能进一步受制于来自歌尔声学日益激烈之竞争开拓中低端市场, 意味着毛利率面临更大的压力公司毛利率从第二季度的 42.8% 下降至第三季的 42.5% 瑞声科技正积极为各个客户设计声学平台客户基础多样化意味著产品设计也多样化, 这令公司的规模经济短期内难以提升我们预计, 公司第四季度毛利率将进一步下降, 但有能力维持在 40% 以上水平非声学产品需要更长的时间来实现量的突破瑞声科技正专注于开发射频天线及光学元件鉴于现时光学领域 ( 尤其是 500 万像素的摄像头模组 ) 有众多竞争对手 ( 如舜宇光学欧菲光及信利等 ), 瑞声科技难以享受行业的增量收益我们预计公司的晶圆级镜头需要有杀手级手机 ( 如 iphone6) 采用才能实现量的突破短期没有催化剂, 评级下调至中性虽然我们仍然喜欢 AAC 管理层在策略执行及成本控制上之往绩纪录, 但公司股价的上涨空间短期内可能受制于饱和的高端市场及较长的中低端市场开拓时间我们把估值从 FY15 P/E 的 16 倍降至 11 倍, 对应的目标价为港币 35 元, 评级下调至中性资料来源 : 彭博股票数据收盘价 ( 港币 $) 流通股本 ( 百万 ) 1,228 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 ) 41,077 流通量 (%) 日均成交额 HK$185m 52 周最低 / 最高 25.05/47.95 主要控股股东 Benjamin Pan (40.79%) 每股净资产 ( 人民币 $) 5.4 负债率 (%) 9.5 盈利预测截至 31/ A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 ( 人民币百万 ) 4,060 6,283 8,330 10,160 12,001 经营盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 1,180 1,952 2,366 2,814 3,336 账面盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 1,036 1,763 2,125 2,555 3,033 实际盈利 ( 人民币百万 ) 1,036 1,763 2,125 2,555 3,033 每股实际盈利 ( 人民币 ) 每股股息 ( 人民币 ) 每股账面价值 ( 人民币 ) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 :

3 Financial Summary Profit & Loss (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Dynamic Components 3,228 5,052 6,938 8,468 9,877 Revenue growth (%) 21% 55% 33% 22% 18% Microphones ,033 1,232 Operating profit grow th (%) 11% 61% 23% 19% 18% Other Products Reported profit grow th (%) 5% 70% 21% 20% 19% Headsets Underly ing profit grow th (%) 5% 70% 21% 20% 19% Revenue 4,060 6,283 8,330 10,160 12,001 Underlying EPS growth (%) 5% 70% 21% 20% 19% Cost of sales (2,275) (3,509) (4,873) (6,056) (7,189) Div idend grow th (%) 6% 66% 22% 20% 19% Gross profit 1,784 2,774 3,457 4,105 4,812 Div idend pay out (%) 40% 39% 40% 40% 40% R&D ex penses (358) (462) (625) (732) (816) Gross profit margin (%) 44% 44% 42% 40% 40% SG&A ex penses (179) (289) (375) (447) (528) Operating profit margin (%) 34% 36% 33% 32% 32% Other operating ex pense (67) (71) (92) (112) (132) Underly ing profit margin (%) 26% 28% 26% 25% 25% Operating profit 1,180 1,952 2,366 2,814 3,336 ROE (%) 22% 29% 28% 28% 27% Finance costs (22) (4) (5) (7) (8) ROA (%) 15% 20% 20% 20% 20% Other income (61) Net debt/equity (%) -6% 1% 13% 9% 3% Profit before taxation 1,142 2,016 2,431 2,881 3,404 Net debt/total assets (%) -4% 0% 9% 7% 2% Tax ation (109) (259) (311) (331) (374) Current ratio (%) 182% 167% 166% 174% 192% Non-controlling interests Interest cov er (x ) Net profit 1,036 1,763 2,125 2,555 3,033 Dividend cover (x ) Balance Sheet (RMB m 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash Flows (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Fixed assets 2,806 3,737 5,024 6,090 6,991 Operating profit 1,180 1,952 2,366 2,814 3,336 Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income Non-current assets 3,289 4,319 5,616 6,689 7,612 Others (87) (357) (447) (396) (487) Inventories ,421 1,766 2,097 Change in working capital (304) (674) (1,095) (550) (553) Debtors & prepayments 1,219 1,908 2,545 3,105 3,667 Tax paid (109) Bank deposits & cash 1,374 1, ,347 Operating activities 968 1,539 1,531 2,676 3,228 Others CAPEX (1,177) (1,334) (1,666) (1,524) (1,440) Current assets 3,425 4,607 4,982 6,121 7,711 Purchase of assets (3) (6) (6) (6) (6) Bank & other borrow ings 1,096 1,354 1,421 1,522 1,674 Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables ,009 1,198 Proceeds from investments Tax ation Others (167) (36) (160) (160) (160) Current liabilities 1,887 2,751 3,008 3,523 4,018 Investing activities (1,347) (1,369) (1,832) (1,690) (1,606) Bank & other borrowings New loans raised Others Repay ment of loans Non-current liabilities Dividends paid (442) (417) (695) (850) (1,022) Net assets 4,811 6,130 7,548 9,245 11,263 Others 34 (5) (2) (2) (2) Share capital Financing activities 18 (230) (597) (752) (924) Premium & reserves 3,903 5,232 6,661 8,366 10,377 Inc/(dec) in cash (361) (60) (899) Shareholders' funds 4,750 6,078 7,508 9,213 11,224 Cash at beginning of y ear 1,735 1,374 1, Non-controlling interests Foreign exchange effect Total equity 4,811 6,130 7,548 9,245 11,263 Cash at end of year 1,374 1, ,347 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4

5 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5



February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)