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1 Company Research Company update Livzon Pharm (1513 HK) Contrived a smart plot Livzon Pharma announced that 10m new restricted (i.e. non-tradable) A-shares will be issued pursuant to its proposed staff incentive scheme, subject to the relevant approval. The maximum dilution would be an immaterial 3.4%. Its core technical staff would likely own 79% of these shares, as talent rewards. We reiterate our BUY call and TP of HK$74.00, for its i) leadership of local hormone makers; and ii) wider margin s diverse medical specialties. Livzon now trades at 18.5x FY15F P/E, which remains at a discount to sector mean s 19.5x. 10m new restricted A-shares to be issued. On 15 Dec 2014, Livzon announced that 10m new restricted (i.e. non-tradable) A- share will be issued pursuant to its proposed staff incentive scheme, which is subject to approval of the CSRC as well as A and H shareholders. The maximum dilution would be 3.4% should all 10m shares be granted. We will make adjustment after the approval and the number of granted shares confirmed. Moreover, some 468 mid-level and core technical staff would likely own 79% of these new shares, for retaining outstanding employees. Minimum 12 month of lock-up period. Others in the scheme include Vice Chairman, Vice Presidents and general managers. The subscription price of these new shares initially shall be RMB25.20 per share, a half of its past 20-trading day s price average. Moreover, these shares shall have at least 12 months lock-up period starting from the grant date. Profit targets for unlocking the shares. These share will be unlocked (i.e. made tradable) after the company satisfying some profit targets, which are set to be 15%/38%/73% earnings growth from 2014 to 2015/16/17, respectively. After meeting these targets, the vesting amounts would be 40%/30%/30%, respectively, in each of 2016/17/18. If these conditions are not met, these newly granted shares shall be repurchased by the company at RMB25.20 per share, and cancelled (i.e. dilution be reversed). More attractive valuation than peers. Maintain BUY. Livzon currently trades at 18.5x FY15F PE, which is below i) its sector's average of 19.5x and ii) other drug-makers with diverse medical areas - CSPC's (1093.HK, Nonrated) 22.2x and Sino-biopharm's (1177.HK, Non-rated) 22.3x. We reckon that the stock deserves a premium valuation as it is i) China's biggest local hormone producer; ii) having wider margin of diverse medical specialties; and iii) good R&D in biomedicine niche (monoclonal antibodies). Our SOTP-TP of HKD74.00 reflects 26.5x FY15F PE. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 3,944 4,619 5,727 6,916 8,353 Operating Profit Reported Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (CNY) DPS (CNY) BVPS (CNY) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Health Care 17 December 2014 BUY Target price HK$74.00 Last price (17 Dec 14) HK$51.00 Upside/downside (%) 45.1 HSI Mkt cap (HK$bn/US$bn) 17.7/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn) 1.1 Free float (%) 54.0% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Jan-14 Price(LHS) Sep-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (10.8) 0.4 Absolute (US$, %) (10.8) 0.4 Relative to HSI (%) (5.7) 7.7 Source: Bloomberg Company background Livzon Pharmaceutical is a vertically integrated Chinese drug-maker with diverse medical niches of 230 product types, spanning across five major areas, namely 1) hormone for reproduction; 2) Chinese medicine; 3) digestive system drugs; 4) antibiotics; and 5) diagnostic medical devices. Some 3% to 4% of FY13 s total operating income derived from essential drug listed (EDL) medicine, while antibiotics related sales accounted for 23.3% of FY13 s total operating income. With its A-share trading in China, Livzon s B- shares transferred its listing to HK Stock Exchange on 16 Jan Shanghai-listed Joincare Pharma ( CH, Non-rated) is Livzon s largest shareholder with 47.4% interest (A-share inclusive). Source: Guosen Securities; Bloomberg See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯丽珠集团 (1513 HK) 一個精明的設計丽珠医药宣布, 透过其员工激励计划发行一千万非流通的新 A 股, 但还要等待相关审批最大摊薄度为 3.4% 为奖励优秀人才, 其核心技术员可会拥有该计划发行股份的 79% 我们重申买入评级, 目标价为 74 港元, 基于一 ) 其国产激素药销售领导力及二 ) 其他高毛利率的专科药销售丽珠目前 2015 财年市盈率为 18.5 倍, 较同业的 19.5 倍仍有折让发行一千万非流通新 A 股 2014 年 12 月 15 日, 丽珠集团宣布发行一千万限制性 ( 非流通 ) 新 A 股给员工作为激励计划, 但有关计划仍待中国证监会和 A 和 H 股股东会的审批若发行这一千万股, 最大摊薄度为 3.4% 在获得批准并确认授予股份数量后, 我们将进行股数调整此外, 为留住优秀员工,468 位中级和核心技术人员将可能拥有 79% 的新股票最少 12 个月禁售期这计划包括的其他职工为 : 副董事长, 副总裁和总经理这些新股的认购价最初订为每股人民币元, 是其过去的 20 个交易日的平均价格的一半此外, 这些股票从授予日开始须至少有 12 个月禁售期以盈利指标为解禁售出股份时段若公司到达某指定利润目标, 这些股份将被解禁 ( 即取得流通 ) 分别设为 2015 年 /2016 年 /2017 年的盈利较 2014 年分別有 15%/38%/73% 的增长实现这些目标后, 在 2016 年 /2017 年 /2018 年可行驶股权分额分别为 40% /30%/30% 若达不到这些条件, 公司将以每股人民幣回购这些新发行的股份並加以注销 ( 即摊薄被逆转 ) 与同业相比更具吸引力的估值维持买入评级丽珠目前 2015 年市盈率为 18.5 倍, 低于一 ) 该行业平均的 19.5 倍, 及二 ) 有多方面制药专长的制药商 - 石药 (1093.HK, 未评级 ) 的 22.2 倍, 和中生制药 (1177.HK, 未评级 ) 的 22.3 倍我们认为该股应有溢价估值, 基于一 ) 其国产激素药销售领导力 ; 二 ) 其他高毛利率的专科药销售及三 ) 良好的生物制药研发的基础 ( 单克隆抗体 ) 我們以分部总和计算的目标价 74 港元隐含 2015 年市盈率 26.5 倍 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 3,944 4,619 5,727 6,916 8,353 经营盈利净利润实际盈利每股实际盈利 (CNY) 每股股息 (CNY) 每股账面价值 (CNY) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 中国 / 医疗保健 2014 年 12 月 17 日买入目标价 HK$74.00 收盘价 (17 Dec 14) HK$51.00 Upside/downside (%) 45.1 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$bn) 17.7/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn) 1.1 流通量 (%) 54.0% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Jan-14 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (10.8) 0.4 绝对回报 (US$, %) (10.8) 0.4 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (5.7) 7.7 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) Sep-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 丽珠医药集团股份有限公司主要从事医药产品的生产和科研, 产品包括化学药品生化药品生物工程药品化学合成原料药抗生素微生态制剂中成药和诊断试剂等是一间有多种医药专长和一体綜合型的中国制药商, 约有 230 产品类型集团销售包括五个主要医疗领域 : 一 ) 雌激素 ; 二 ) 抗生素 ; 三 ) 消化系统用药 ; 四 ) 中药 ; 五 ) 诊断设备集团约有 3% 4% 的营收 (13 财年 ) 来自基本医药目录 ( 基药 ) 中的药物销售抗生素销售额占 13 财年总营收的 23.3% 集团的 A 股仍在中国上市, 它的 B 股已在 2014 年 1 月 16 日转往香港交易所上市上海上市的健康元药业 ( CH, 未评级 ) 是丽珠的单一大股东有 47.4% 的股份 (A 股包括在内 ) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ); 彭博研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 Profit target criteria to be met for unlocking its non-tradable shares for open-market sales Growth compared to % 38% 73% unlocking amount % 40% 30% 30% Accumulated unlocking amount % 40% 70% 100% Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 3 Post HK-IPO forward (12-month) PE Band SD = 29.4x +1SD = 26.8X 65 Share Price (HK$) Mean = 20.0x -1SD = 14.9x -2SD = 13.5x 30 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 4 Post HK-IPO forward (12-month) PB Band SD = 4.2x +1SD = 3.8X 65 Share Price (HK$) Mean = 2.8x -1SD = 2.1x -2SD = 1.9x 30 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Total Operating Income 3,944 4,619 5,727 6,916 8,353 Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales (1,570) (1,695) (2,216) (2,753) (3,327) Operating profit growth (%) Gross profit 2,374 2,924 3,510 4,163 5,026 Underlying profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) (55) (59) (66) (80) (96) Underlying EPS growth (%) Operating expenses (1,793) (2,248) (2,732) (3,310) (4,001) Gross profit margin (%) Operating profit Operating profit margin (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) 17 (4) Underlying profit margin (%) Finance income Net debt/equity (%) (22.8) (2.4) Finance expenses (23) (7) (22) (22) (9) Net debt/total assets (%) (12.1) (1.4) Associates & JCE Current ratio (%) Profit before taxation Dividend payout (%) Taxation (85) (105) (118) (133) (161) Inventory Turnover days Non-controlling interests (34) (36) (36) (37) (38) Acct Receivable Turnover days Net profit Acct Payable Turnover days Other Adjustments on UP (45) (25) (50) 0 0 Dupont Analysis 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Underlying Profit Tax burden (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow (RMBmn) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets 2,158 3,060 3,030 3,099 3,159 Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization (160) (180) (241) (253) (265) Others Interest income Non-current assets 2,660 3,585 3,449 3,535 3,612 Change in working capital (77) (302) (193) 29 (139) Inventories ,019 1,232 Tax paid (85) (105) (118) (133) (161) Debtors & prepayments 1,147 1,567 2,044 2,498 2,974 Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash 1, , Operating activities Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (762) (920) (1,002) (968) (919) Current assets 2,974 2,981 3,698 4,572 5,034 Free cash flow (168) (480) (429) (230) (230) Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables ,181 1,428 Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others 1, ,122 1,182 1,241 Dividends received Current liabilities 2,376 2,330 2,713 2,992 3,335 Other investing cashflow (133) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (895) (875) (802) (762) (706) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans (621) (1,235) (780) (814) (860) Net assets 3,180 3,605 3,830 4,485 5,076 Dividends paid (217) (192) (168) (171) (168) Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves 2,712 3,049 3,271 3,924 4,513 Financing activities Shareholders' funds 3,008 3,345 3,567 4,220 4,808 Inc/(dec) in cash (254) (427) (8) Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year 1,462 1, Total equity 3,180 3,605 3,830 4,485 5,076 Foreign exchange effect 13 (21) Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year 1, , Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动国信证券 ( 香港 ) 在过去 12 个月内与该公司有投资银行关系国信证券 ( 香港 ) 员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 6

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2