Microsoft Word - CPMC-Multiple growths final

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1 Company Research Company update CPMC (906 HK) Multiple growths CMPC is expected to see faster growth ahead with multiple drivers. The two piece can business will maintain around 12% growth thanks to its strong position in the industry, tinplate business will resume to positive growth as other brands are gradually taking up spare capacity released by JDB and the plastic packing business is realizaing synergies from the M&A. In addition, CPMC s facilities for one piece can has gained certification for pharmaceutical use. Strong position in the two piece can industry. In 2013, demand and supply for two piece can were estimated at ~20bn cans and ~35bn cans, respectively. Despite the overcapacity in the industry, CPMC has been running at utilization rate of >95% and unable to meet the company s increasing existing demand even with its expanding capacity. Besides, its customers such as JDB, Coke Cola and Snowbeer are famous beverage brands in China and have strict food safety requirements. They are reluctant to change suppliers unless with very strong reasons. This has made new entrants difficult to compete with CPMC. Tinplate packaging to resume positive growth The 15% decrease in tinplate packing business in FY13 was a result of complete package change of key customer JDB from tinplate three piece can to aluminum two piece can and decline in ASP (~7%). However, we expect the tinplate packing business will grow 4% 6% in the coming years as other brands are gradually taking up the spare capacity. Two piece can business growth was ~32.4% in FY13 thanks to the smooth operation of new product line. With a higher base, we expect growth in two piece can will be ~12% in the coming few years. CFDA certified facilities, the first and only one in China. The 1 st one piece can production line with capacity of 60 mn cans has succussfully gained certificaton from the China Food and Drug Administration. It is the only facilities that can produce one piece can for pharmaceutical products. One piece can is estimated to have higher ASP of ~HK$1 1.2 (v.s ~HK$0.5 for two piece cans and ~HK$0.7 for three piece cans), and higher GPM of ~30% (vs ~16% 18% for twopiece cans and three piece cans). In FY13, CPMC signed exclusive contracts with some pharms and breweries and we expect sales in FY14 will be ~HK30mn. Plastic packaging business is realizing synergies form the M&A. In FY13, plastic packaging business more than doubled in sales to RMB559mn and GPM improved to 18.4% (vs 16.5% in FY12) as a result of M&A. We expect significant growth to RMB1,609mn in FY15. This will accelerate earning growth of the company from 9.5% in FY14 to 15.1% in FY15. Based on earnings of RMB439m and RMB486m, TP HK$7.00 is at PE of 12.8X in FY14 and 10.1X in FY15. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Revenue 4,342 5,046 5,257 6,060 6,972 Operating Profit Reported Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Materials 17 April 2014 BUY Target price HK$7.00 Last price(16 Apr 14) HK$6.11 Upside/downside(%) 19.5 HSI Mkt cap(hk$mn/us$mn) 6,095/ week range (HK$mn) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn).81 Free float(%) Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Apr 13 Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (5.0) 1.2 (0.2) Absolute(US$, %) (5.0) 1.2 (0.2) Relative to HSI(%) (10.4) 2.4 (4.9) Source: Bloomberg Company background CPMC Holdings Ltd. manufactures food packaging products. Source: Bloomberg Price(LHS) Maggie Zheng SFC CE No.: AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk Dec 13 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告报告理由中粮包装 (906 HK) 多重业务驱动增长中粮包装在未来的增长提速将源自多重业务的驱动公司在两片罐行业的地位稳固, 该业务未来增长预计将维持在 12% 左右 ; 马口铁业务预计将随着其他品牌逐渐替代加多宝更换包装后富余的三片罐产能, 缓慢恢复正增长 ; 塑胶包装业务并购后协同效应开始显现此外, 公司的单片罐生产线也获得了药品包装用材料资质两片罐行业地位稳固 2013 年我国两片罐行业供给估算约为 350 亿罐, 需求约为 20 亿罐即便行业出现了产能过剩, 但中粮包装的两片罐产能利用率依然高达 95% 以上, 并依然难以完全满足现有客户的需求增长此外公司的客户都是知名品牌, 如加多宝可口可乐以及华润雪花啤酒等, 这些客户对食品安全要求严格, 一般情况下并不随意转换供应商因此两片罐行业的新进入者难以和中粮包装竞争马口铁业务将缓慢恢复增长 FY13 马口铁业务下滑 15%, 主要由于加多宝完成由马口铁制三片罐转向铝制两片罐的包装切换, 此外马口铁价格下滑也导致三片罐单价下滑约 7% 我们预计未来三年马口铁业务将随着其他品牌逐步替代加多宝转换包装后的富余产能恢复 4%-6% 的温和增长而两片罐业务在 2013 年的增速达 32.4% 主要由于新产能的顺利投放由于两片罐业务的高基数, 我们预计两片罐业务增长在未来将维持在约 12% 的水平国内首条也是唯一获得国家食品药品监督局认证的单片罐生产线公司首条产能为 6 千万罐的单片罐生产线已成功获得国家食品药品监督局认证, 成为我国唯一一条拥有药品包装材料资质的单片罐生产线单片罐的 ASP 预计约为 HK$1-1.2, 而两片罐 ASP 仅为 ~HK$0.5, 三片罐 ASP 仅为 ~HK$0.7 此外单片罐的毛利率水平预计可达 30%, 而两片罐及三片罐的毛利率约为 16%-18% 在 FY13, 中粮包装已经和一些医药生产商以及啤酒厂签订独家合作协议, 我们预计 FY14 单片罐的收入可达约 HK$3000 万兼并塑胶包装业务协同效应显现. FY13 塑胶包装业务由于兼并收购, 收入增长超过一倍, 达人民币 5.59 亿元, 毛利率也由 FY12 的 16.5% 改善至 18.4% 我们预期该业务将持续快速增长, 至 FY15 有望达到 RMB16.09 亿元该业务将驱动公司盈利增速由 FY14 的 9.5% 提高到 FY15 的 15.1%. 我们估算 FY14 及 FY15 的盈利分别为人民币 4.39 亿元以及人民币 4.86 亿元, 公司目标价 HK$7.00 相当于 FY14 及 FY15 的 12.8XPE 以及 10.1XPE. Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 营业额 4,342 5,046 5,257 6,060 6,972 经营盈利净利润实际盈利每股实际盈利 (RMB) 每股股息 (RMB) 每股账面价值 (RMB) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 中国 / 物料 2014 年 4 月 17 日买入目标价 HK$7.00 收盘价 (16 Apr 14) HK$6.11 Upside/downside(%) 19.5 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$mn) 6,095/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn).81 流通量 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ Apr 13 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (5.0) 1.2 (0.2) 绝对回报 (US$, %) (5.0) 1.2 (0.2) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (10.4) 2.4 (4.9) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介中粮包装控股有限公司生产食品包装产品资料来源 : 彭博 Price(LHS) 郑梦奇证监会中央编号 :AYO zhengmq@guosen.com.hk Dec 13 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 12M forward PE band chart Figure 4 12M forward PB band chart HK$ Nov 09 Jul 10 Mar 11 Nov 11 Jul 12 max 34.1X +1sd 19.8X avg 13.6X PE(x) 10.6X 1sd min 6.1X 7.3X Nov 09 Jul 10 Mar 11 Nov 11 Jul 12 max 3.1X +1sd 1.9X PB(x) avg 1.3X 1.1X 1sd 0.7X min 0.6X Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research 17 April

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Revenue 4,342 5,046 5,257 6,060 6,972 Revenue growth (%) Cost of sales 3,648 4,203 4,315 4,971 5,700 Operating profit growth (%) Gross profit Reported profit growth (%) Other income/(expense) Underlying profit growth (%) Operating expenses Underlying EPS growth (%) Operating profit Dividend growth (%) Other non operating inc/(exp) Gross profit margin (%) Finance income Operating profit margin (%) Finance expenses Underlying profit margin (%) Associates & JCE Net debt/equity (%) Profit before taxation Net debt/total assets (%) Taxation Current ratio (%) Non controlling interests Dividend payout (%) Net profit Interest cover (x) Other Adjustments on UP Dividend cover (x) Underlying Profit Dupont Analysis 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Tax burden (%) Interest burden (%) Operating profit margin (%) Asset turnover (x) Leverage ratio (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Cashflow (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E Fixed assets 1,829 2,599 3,411 3,504 3,570 Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income Non current assets 2,344 3,219 4,011 4,137 4,207 Change in working capital Inventories ,206 1,024 Tax paid Debtors & prepayments 1,132 1,090 1,252 1,464 2,002 Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash 1,612 1,677 1,003 1,737 1,728 Operating activities Others Purchase of non current assets (Capex) Current assets 3,678 3,700 3,122 4,439 4,786 Free cash flow Bank & other borrowings 369 1, ,011 1,106 Disposal of non current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities 1,547 2,438 3,120 3,117 2,367 Other investing cashflow Bank & other borrowings 1, ,106 1,806 Investing activities Others New loans raised 2,604 1, ,106 1,806 Non current liabilities 1, ,120 1,819 Repayment of loans 933 1,142 1, ,011 Net assets 2,638 3,652 3,970 4,339 4,807 Dividends paid Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves 2,481 3, ,127 4,580 Financing activities 1, Shareholders' funds 2,554 3, ,214 4,667 Inc/(dec) in cash 1, Non controlling interests Cash at beginning of year 481 1,612 1,677 1,720 1,737 Total equity 2,638 3,652 3,970 4,338 4,807 Foreign exchange effect Cash at end of year 1,612 1, ,737 1, April

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 17 April

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 17 April

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2