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1 公司报告业绩分析通达集团 (698 HK) 新产品值得期待出席 16 年中期业绩分析师简报会后, 我们轻微上调通达财年预测 0-2%, 根据 17 财年预测市盈率 12 倍计算, 目标价由 1.9 港元上调至 2.3 港元重予买入评级受惠金属外壳采用率进一步上升, 加上中国客户将于下半年推出旗舰智能手机, 金属外壳平均售价应较上半年回升, 因此我们预期通达下半年业绩将较上半年强劲通达已开始向一家国际大型智能手机制造商供应防水胶环, 而其他新产品 ( 例如 3D 玻璃 ) 有机会于未来两至三年成为集团的主要收益来源收益略差于预期通达 16 上半年净利润为 3.8 亿港元 ( 同比升 29%), 符合市场预期收益较预期少 5%, 原因是金属外壳出货量大幅增长 (2,000 万件, 相比去年同期为 300 万件 ) 带动手机外壳收益仅仅同比增长 19% 然而, 我们估计 16 上半年金属外壳的平均售价同比下降 28%, 原因是上半年主要向中低端品牌小米出货, 其外壳价格较华为及 Oppo 旗舰手机的外壳价格低 20-30%( 毛利率维持 28-30%) 金属外壳产品组合提升, 带动毛利率上升至 24.4%(15 上半年 : 23.5%) 开支占收益比率上升至 9.6%(15 上半年 :8.9%), 主要由于研发及劳工成本通达宣派中期股息每股 0.02 港元, 股息支付率维持 30% 不变 16 下半年增长加快, 往后更快我们现时预测 16 下半年表现强劲, 收益 / 盈利增长将同比升 50%/58%, 而 16 财年盈利增长预测为同比升 46%, 与先前预测大致相同我们上调 16 财年的金属外壳出货量预测至 4,600 万件 ( 先前预测 :3,000 万件 ), 相当于通达手机外壳出货量的 77% 受惠华为及 Oppo 即将发布旗舰手机, 我们预测金属外壳的平均售价将于下半年回升通达已开始向一家国际智能手机制造商 ( 我们相信是苹果公司 ) 供应防水胶环, 我们预测将贡献 16 财年收益的 2% 17/18 财年将会是值得期待的两年, 届时通达专利的 3D 玻璃手机外壳将可开始供货由于未有已确认订单, 我们的预测并无计入 3D 玻璃的收益预测无论如何, 未来对 3D 玻璃的采用将会对通达非常有利, 因为 3D 玻璃的平均售价可高达 400 港元 ( 相比金属外壳约港元 ) 我们预期收益及毛利率增长将受研发和融资成本上升所抵销, 因此只轻微上调 17/18 财年预测 1-2% 预测 17/18 财年盈利增长 19%/17% 重予买入我们将市盈率预测由 16 财年 11 倍向前滚动至 17 财年 12 倍, 目标价调高至 2.3 港元, 估值接近香港同业平均值, 较过往市盈率平均值高两个标准差基于毛利率的上升势头及 3D 玻璃的增长潜力优厚, 我们认为估值合理股价驱动力包括获得 3D 玻璃组件订单香港科技 / 通信技术 2016 年 8 月 16 日买入目标价上次评级 / 目标价收盘价 (16 Aug 16) HKD2.30 买入 HKD1.91 HKD1.63 Upside/downside(%) 41.1 恒生指数总市值 (HKDb/USDb) 9.3/ 周最高 / 最低 (HKD) 日均成交额 (USDm) 3.73 流通量 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HKD Aug-15 Price(LHS) Apr-16 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 绝对回报 (USD, %) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 9.0 (7.3) 28.9 资料来源 : 彭博公司简介通达集团控股有限公司是一家消费类电子产品的精密结构件供应商, 应用模内镶件注塑 ( IML ) 技术服务中国市场客户集团于手机电器用品及手提电脑外壳及相关产品市场占据稳固的市场地位资料来源 : 彭博图 1: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 港元百万 ) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F 营业额 4,791 6,074 8,022 9,089 10,232 经营盈利 ,271 1,522 1,772 实际盈利 ,026 1,226 1,431 每股实际盈利 ( 港元 ) 每股实际盈利增长率 (%) 市盈率 (x) 市净率 (x) 股息率 (%) 股本回报率 (%) 净负债 / 股本 (%) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究部谢嘉熙证监会中央编号 :BAZ christopher.tse@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 1

2 1H16 recap Net profit in line; Revenue slight miss Tongda reported 1H16 net profit of HKD380m (+29% YoY), in line with street. Revenue missed 5% as handset-casing revenue grew just 19% YoY driven by strong ramp up in metal casing shipment (20m vs 1H15: 3m). We estimate ASP of metal casings dropped 28% YoY to HKD90 as 1H16 shipments were mostly low/mid-end Xiaomi, whose casing designs are 20-30% cheaper than Huawei and Oppo s flagship phones (margins remains at 28-30%). We note this is mostly due to simpler design used in Xiaomi, rather than price competition. Gross margin improved to 24.4% (1H15: 23.5%) due to higher mix in metal casings. Expenses ratio ramped to 9.6% of revenue (1H15: 8.9%) mainly due to R&D and labor cost. Finance cost jumped higher as gearing increased to 47% (FY15: 36%). Tongda declares an interim dividend of HKD0.02 per share, implying unchanged 30% payout Figure 1 1H16 results summary (RMBm) 1H15 1H16 YoY Guosen FY16 % of FY16F Revenue 2,881 3, % 8,022 40% Gross margin 23.5% 24.4% +0.9ppt 26.1% n.a. Profit before tax % 1,229 37% Net profit % 1,026 37% EPS % % Product mix Growth Segment Revenue 1H15 1H16 1H15 1H16 Handsets 61% 65% 83% 19% Electrical appliances 11% 11% 1% 7% Notebook 8% 5% -21% -22% Ironware & communications 20% 19% 7% 9% Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 2

3 Earnings changes Minor tweak on FY16-18 forecasts We increase our revenue forecasts mainly to factor (1) higher metal casing shipments and lower plastic casings, (2) contribution from waterproof coating.we estimate this waterproof coating will contribute to 2%/5%/6% of FY16-18 revenues, which we include in plastic casings. Our forecast GPM is also raised slightly due to a higher product mix in metal casings, while we estimate waterproof coatings GPM at around 40-45% (vs company s ~25% blended). We raised operating expense ratio to reflect higher R&D, while slightly increasing finance cost and tax rates. Overall, our FY16-18 earnings forecast changes by 0-2% Figure 2 Summary of forecast changes FY16F FY17F FY18F FYE 31 Dec (HKDm) Old New Chg Old New Chg Old New Chg Plastic casings 1, % 1, % 1, % Metal casings 3,528 4,622 31% 4,733 5,429 15% 5,785 6,207 7% Total smartphones 5,315 5,494 3% 6,354 6,319-1% 7,237 7,044-3% Notebook casings % % % Electrical appliances % % % Ironware % % % Communication 863 1,027 19% 906 1,253 38% 951 1,492 57% Total revenue 7,715 8,022 4% 8,832 9,089 3% 9,965 10,232 3% YoY 27% 32% 14% 13% 13% 13% Gross profit 1,974 2,097 6% 2,286 2,439 7% 2,617 2,795 7% GPM 25.6% 26.1% 25.9% 26.8% 26.3% 27.3% Opex as % of revenue -9.7% -10.3% -9.4% -10.1% -9.2% -10.0% Operating profit 1,226 1,271 4% 1,456 1,522 5% 1,700 1,772 4% Non-op income/loss (16) (42) (39) (48) (38) (48) PBT 1,209 1,229 2% 1,416 1,473 4% 1,663 1,724 4% Effective tax rate 15.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.0% Core net profit 1,028 1,026 0% 1,204 1,226 2% 1,413 1,431 1% core net margin 13.3% 12.8% 13.6% 13.5% 14.2% 14.0% YoY 46% 46% 17% 19% 17% 17% Figure 3 Key assumptions FY Dec 31 (HKDm) FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F FY18F Handset casing shipment Metal casing YoY 14% 21% 7% 12% 10% Metal casing volume mix 3% 21% 77% 85% 93% Handset casing ASP Metal Gross margins Handset GPM 26.6% 27.3% 28.9% 29.2% 29.5% Notebook computers 21.5% 21.0% 18.0% 19.5% 19.5% Electrical appliances 26.0% 26.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% Ironware 19.0% 19.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Communication 19.0% 19.0% 19.5% 21.0% 23.0% Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Figure 4 Detailed income statements FY end Dec 31 (HKDm) FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F Revenue Plastic 2,152 2, Metal 164 1,380 4,622 5,429 6,207 Total smartphones 2,315 3,713 5,494 6,319 7,044 Notebook computers Electrical appliances Ironware Communication ,027 1,253 1,492 Total revenue 4,791 6,074 8,022 9,089 10,232 YoY change 32% 27% 32% 13% 13% Cost of revenue (3,648) (4,562) (5,925) (6,649) (7,437) Gross profit 1,144 1,512 2,097 2,439 2,795 Gross profit margin 23.9% 24.9% 26.1% 26.8% 27.3% Total opex (469) (610) (826) (918) (1,023) Opex / revenue % -9.8% -10.0% -10.3% -10.1% -10.0% Operating profit ,271 1,522 1,772 Other income Finance costs (57) (56) (77) (83) (81) Share of associates (2) (0) (0) (0) (0) PBT ,229 1,473 1,724 Income tax (94) (134) (197) (236) (276) Effective tax rate 14.7% 15.4% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% MI (47) (35) (6) (12) (17) Core net profit ,026 1,226 1,431 YoY change 44% 40% 46% 19% 17% Core net margin 10.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.5% 14.0% Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Valuation Raising target price to HKD2.3 - BUY We raise our TP to HKD2.3 as we roll over to 12x FY17 P/E (from 11x FY16). This is in line with HK peers average and represents 2SD above historic mean P/E. We think this is reasonable given rising margin trend and exciting future opportunities with 3D glass. Catalysts include new component wins with 3D glass. Figure 5 Peer comparison TMT hardware (16/8/2016) Company Ticker Price Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Mkt cap (USDm) Hist P/E FY1 P/E FY2 P/E FY1 EPS YoY (%) FY2 EPS 3-Yr EPS YoY (%) CAGR (%) Hist Div Yld (%) FY1 Div Yld (%) Hist P/BV FY1 P/BV Last reported FY Truly 732 HK , Dec-15 Tongda Group 698 HK , Dec-15 Sunny Optical 2382 HK , Dec-15 Q Tech 1478 HK Dec-15 Cowell 1415 HK (18.7) Dec-15 AAC Tech 2018 HK , Dec-15 Coolpad 2369 HK (92.9) Dec-15 Lenovo Group 992 HK ,792 (60.8) (729.3) Mar-16 TCL Comm 2618 HK , (23.0) (0.3) Dec-15 BYD Electronic 285 HK , Dec-15 Ju Teng 3336 HK (26.0) Dec-15 FIH Mobile 2038 HK , (56.1) Dec-15 ASM Pacific 522 HK , Dec-15 Coolpad 2369 HK (92.9) Dec-15 HK TMT hardware sector average (58.6) Figure 612 months forward PE band chart Figure 712 months forward PB band chart HKD max 11.9X +1sd 10.0X PE(x) 8.6X avg 8.2X -1sd 6.4X min 4.7X max 2.3X +1sd 1.9X PB(x) 1.8X avg 1.5X -1sd 1.0X min 0.7X 0.00 Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16 Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 Summary financial statements(year to Dec 31) Profit & Loss (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Financial Ratios FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Revenue 4,791 6,074 8,022 9,089 10,232 Gross profit margin (%) Revenue growth (%) Operating profit margin (%) Cost of sales (3,648) (4,562) (5,925) (6,649) (7,437) Underlying profit margin (%) Gross profit 1,144 1,512 2,097 2,439 2,795 Net debt/equity (%) Other income/(expense) (27) (16) (24) (27) (31) Net debt/total assets (%) Operating expenses (442) (594) (802) (891) (992) Current ratio (%) Operating profit ,271 1,522 1,772 Dividend payout (%) Operating profit growth (%) Interest cover (x) Other non operating inc/(exp) Dividend cover (x) Finance income Acct. receivable turnover days Finance expenses (57) (56) (77) (83) (81) Acct. payable turnover days Associates & JCE (2) Inventory turnover days Profit before taxation ,229 1,473 1,724 Cash cycle days Taxation (94) (134) (197) (236) (276) Dupont Analysis FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Non-controlling interests (47) (35) (6) (12) (17) Tax burden (%) Net profit ,026 1,226 1,431 Interest burden (%) Other Adjustments on UP Operating profit margin (%) Underlying Profit ,026 1,226 1,431 Asset turnover (x) Underlying profit growth (%) Leverage ratio (x) EPS (HKD) ROA (%) Underlying EPS (HKD) ROE (%) Underlying EPS growth (%) DPS (HKD) DPS growth (%) Balance Sheet (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Cashflow (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Fixed assets 1,757 2,628 3,152 3,511 3,726 Operating profit ,271 1,522 1,772 Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest expense (57) (56) (77) (83) (81) Non-current assets 2,101 3,054 3,578 3,937 4,151 Change in working capital (491) (406) (734) (569) (581) Inventories 1,401 1,606 2,029 2,368 2,710 Tax paid (106) (134) (197) (236) (276) Debtors & prepayments 2,371 2,984 3,670 4,233 4,822 Other operating cashflow Bank deposits & cash Operating activities ,001 1,249 Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (547) (1,113) (800) (700) (600) Current assets 4,266 5,535 6,771 7,715 8,272 Free cash flow (277) (562) (235) Bank & other borrowings ,444 1,454 1,637 Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables 1,329 1,572 1,948 2,281 2,630 Associates & JCE (net) 23 (30) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities 2,332 3,065 3,909 4,251 4,783 Other investing cashflow (232) (146) Bank & other borrowings 351 1,392 1,515 1, Investing activities (738) (1,282) (790) (692) (596) Others New loans raised 1,251 1, (599) Non-current liabilities 399 1,484 1,607 1, Repayment of loans (1,121) Net assets 3,636 4,039 4,833 5,709 6,729 Dividends paid (142) (197) (239) (362) (428) Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves 3,423 4,000 4,787 5,651 6,654 Financing activities 650 1, (266) (1,027) Shareholders' funds 3,477 4,057 4,845 5,709 6,711 Inc/(dec) in cash (374) Non-controlling interests 159 (18) (12) 0 17 Cash at beginning of year Total equity 3,636 4,039 4,833 5,709 6,729 Foreign exchange effect (1) BVPS (HKD) Cash at end of year Guosen Securities (HK) 6

7 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guo sen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in suc h securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This r eport is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authoriza tion, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guose n Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 7

8 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 8

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2