公司报告好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 2013 年 4 月 5 日好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 买入目标价 :HK$5.3 潜在升幅 :25% 中国市场的增长刚刚启动投资要点 2012 财年全年业绩 : 期内公司的收益约亿港元, 同比增长 15.5%, 但略低于我们之前预期的

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "公司报告好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 2013 年 4 月 5 日好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 买入目标价 :HK$5.3 潜在升幅 :25% 中国市场的增长刚刚启动投资要点 2012 财年全年业绩 : 期内公司的收益约亿港元, 同比增长 15.5%, 但略低于我们之前预期的"

猎诈费
5 years ago
Views:

1 Company Research Goodbaby (1086.HK) Apr 5, 2013 Goodbaby (1086.HK) BUY Target price: HK$5.3 Upside: 25% Growth in China has just begun Investment Highlights No big surprise for FY2012 annual results. For FY2012, revenue was up 15.5% yoy to HK$ 4,554mn, which was lower than our expectation. Gross profit and net profit were HK$ 872mn and HK$ 183mn, representing GPM of 19.1% and NPM of 4%, respectively. Excluding the HK$51mn forward currency contracts gain, core profit increased by 67% to HK$ 169mn. According to Management, the hedge rate accounted for about 70% of overseas revenue, and it will be decreased for FY2013. GPM was fully in line with our expectation. We think the improvement of GPM (19.1%, 2ppt yoy) was due to (1) China market with higher GMP grows faster (30.2%) than overseas market (10.6%). (2) Goodbaby logo products with higher profitability achieved 40.4% growth rate yoy while Happy Dino logo items were 22.8%. (3) Car safety seats (GPM of around 50%) experienced 176% sales growth in Mainland, although this market was still under penetrated with only 3.2% revenue percentage. We think the GPM will continue to improve in FY2013, which will mainly rely on the increase of ASP of new products. Strongest R&D capability. GB launched 491 new products in 2012, of which 68 were new products and 423 were modified products. At the same time, they applied for 535 patents, and received an accumulated total of 5,174 patents. The star products include reversible handle umbrella-like strollers, single and double convertible strollers, intelligent rocking chairs and intelligent car safety seats, etc. More marketing strategies. In China, in addition to in-depth coverage of supermarkets, hypermarkets and maternal stores, the on-line platform such as Jingdong, Dangdang, Taobao (81 authorizes stores) will be strengthened, which accounted for about 15% of revenue in China in FY2012. Management expected that Chinese market will grow at no less than 20% in FY2013. Flexible strategies will be used in overseas market. Product position will shift from high-end to mass market in Europe and low-end in North America, and self-owned brand will be promoted in other overseas markets. We maintain BUY rating with a PT of HK$ We believe GPM outlook will be better in FY13 and EPS for FY2013 and FY2014 are HK$0.21 and HK$0.25. We maintain BUY rating, with 12-month TP adjusting to HK$ 5.3 and potential upside of 25%. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec. 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Turnover (HK$ m) 3,942 4,554 5,292 6,166 7,041 Turnover Growth (%) 22.8% 15.5% 16.2% 16.5% 14.2% Analyst Consumer & Retail Stephy Wong SFC CE No.:AYC stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 12-month performance 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) Week Range 4.73/1.73 Shares Outstanding(m) 1,000 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 4,230 Free float (%) 42.6% Controlling Shareholders: Chairman Song Zhenghuan (25.90%) BVPS (HK$) 1.82 Asset-liability ratio (%) 42% Related Research /4/5 2013/4/5 HKI 1086.HK <Goodbaby: China, where Goodbaby originated and the future growth will be> Apr. 27, 2012 <Goodbaby: Car safety seats market in China will bring business opportunities > Aug. 28, 2012 Net Profit (HK$ m) Net Profit Growth (%) 39.7% 2.5% 16.5% 16.4% 25.2% EPS (HK$) P/E (x) Dividend per share(hk$) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 2013 年 4 月 5 日好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 买入目标价 :HK$5.3 潜在升幅 :25% 中国市场的增长刚刚启动投资要点 2012 财年全年业绩 : 期内公司的收益约亿港元, 同比增长 15.5%, 但略低于我们之前预期的亿港元 ; 毛利和纯利分别为 8.72 亿元和 1.83 亿港元, 同比增长 29.4% 和 3%; 毛利率和净利率分别约为 19.1% 和 4%, 分别较 2011 年同期增长了 2 个百分点和倒退了 0.5 个百分点若扣除远期外汇合约的净收益, 核心业务溢利约为 1.69 亿元, 同比增长 67%; 管理层表示该合约的对冲比率占公司国际销售总额的约 70%, 并预计 2013 年该比率将稳中有降分析师王奕旻 ( 消费零售行业 ) 证监会中央编号 : AYC stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 毛利率完全符合我们的预期, 料未来仍有改善空间 :2012 财年的毛利率为 19.1%, 与我们之前的预期完全一致, 较 2011 财年增长了 2 个百分点, 其中中国和海外市场的毛利率分别为 25.5% 和 16.6% 根据我们的分析, 毛利率的改善主要得益于 :(1) 毛利率较高的国内销售占比不断提升, 中国市场全年收益增长 30.2%( 海外市场 :10.6%), 且整体成本环境相对稳定, 因此毛利率水平得到改善 ;(2) 从品牌组合来看, 盈利能力较高的好孩子品牌的收入增长率 (40.4%) 快于小龙哈彼品牌 (22.8%), 它们的毛利率水平分别为 39.1% 和 14.1%;(3) 从产品类别来看, 汽车安全座椅的整体销售占比由 10.7% 增至 13.6%, 且在渗透率极低的中国市场, 该产品的毛利率高达 50%, 收入同比增长 176%, 虽然目前它在中国市场的销售额占比仅 3.2%, 但随着国内消费者安全意识的提升以及国家相关强制性措施的逐步推出, 我们预计汽车安全座椅将会成为公司未来盈利增长的主要贡献产品 2013 财年, 毛利率的持续改善除了受到以上因素的影响以外, 主要还依靠新产品的推出, 因为原有产品提价目前还不是机会, 而新产品的价格通常高于原有产品 12 个月股价走势 30, , , /4/5 2013/4/5 业界领先的产品研发能力 :2012 年度, 集团总共申请了 535 项专利 ( 目前专利累计达 5,174 项 ), 推出 491 项新产品, 其中全新产品 68 项, 改进产品 423 项 ; 截止 2012 年 12 月 31 日, 正处于研发阶段的新产品项目为 499 项最具代表性的产品包括可换向伞把车单双人可换推车智能摇椅智能汽车座等, 均为业界首创 HKI 资料来源 : 彭博资讯 1086.HK 全面的主动营销策略成效渐显 : 在中国市场, 除了大型百货公司大卖场和母婴店的深度覆盖以外, 公司目前已覆盖了京东当当淘宝 (81 家授权店 ) 等网络平台, 并为大型网络经销商提供产品定制服务,2012 财年中国市场的电商销售占比达 15% 长远来看, 中国市场将继续快速发展, 管理层预期将以每年不低于 20% 的增速发展而在海外市场则继续采取主动营销的策略, 有针对性的推出产品, 欧洲和北美将在原有高端市场的客户基础上, 去开发大众市场和中低端市场, 而其他海外市场则继续加强自有品牌的推广来提高盈利能力维持买入评级, 目标价上调至 5.23 港元 : 我们预计 2013 财年毛利率将稳中有升,2013 和 2014 财年的每股收益分别为 0.21 港元和 0.25 港元我们依然保持对公司前景的乐观态度, 我们上调 12 个月的目标价至 5. 3 港元, 较目前股价有 25% 的上升空间, 维持买入的投资评级盈利预测股票数据收盘价 (HK$) 52 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) /1.73 总股本 / 流通股本 (m) 1,000/426 总市值 / 流通市值 (HK$, m) 4,230/1,802 流通比率 42.6% 主要控股股东 Chairman Song Zhenghuan (25.90%) 每股净资产 (HK$) 1.82 资产负债率 (%) 42% 截至 31/ A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 (HK$, m) 3,942 4,554 5,292 6,166 7,041 增长 (Y/Y,%) 22.8% 15.5% 16.2% 16.5% 14.2% 净利润 (HK$, m) 增长 (Y/Y,%) 39.7% 2.5% 16.5% 16.4% 25.2% 相关报告好孩子国际 : 起源于中国, 发展在全球, 未来增长在中国 2012 年 4 月 27 日好孩子国际 : 汽车安全座潜藏商机 2012 年 8 月 28 日每股收益 (HK$) 市盈率 (x) 每股派息 (HK$) 资料来源 :

3 图 1: 按产品的收入分部 41.0% 45.4% 婴儿推车及其配件汽车安全座及其配件 13.6% 其他儿童耐用品资料来源 : 公司资料, 图 2: 按区域的收入分部 14.3% 28.6% 中国 27.9% 北美欧洲 29.2% 其他海外市场资料来源 : 公司资料, 表 1: 截止 2012 年 12 月 31 日远期外汇合约的净 ( 损失 ) 收益分析截止 2012 年 12 月 31 日的 12 个月内交割的远期外汇合约取得的外汇收益 2011 年 2012 年 ( 百万港元 ) ( 百万港元 ) 截止 2012 年 12 月 31 日尚未交割的远期外汇合约公平值 ( 损失 ) 收益调整上年度的 ( 损失 ) 收益 2.9 (13.9) 净 ( 损失 ) 收益 50.4 (3.2) 资料来源 : 公司资料, 3

4 图 3: 毛利率分析 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 18.8% 20.2% 20.6% 25.1% 14.0% 16.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 婴儿推车及其配件汽车安全座及其配件其他儿童耐用品资料来源 : 公司资料, 图 4: 毛利率分析 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 24.0% 14.7% 17.1% 25.5% 16.6% 19.1% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 资料来源 : 公司资料, 中国海外市场总体毛利率图 5: 毛利率分析 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 毛利率经营利润率净利率资料来源 : 公司资料, 4

5 附录 1 公司损益表 HK$ m 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 收益 3,942 4,554 5,292 6,166 7,041 销售成本 (3,268) (3,683) (4,250) (4,963) (5,654) 毛利 ,043 1,202 1,387 毛利率 17.1% 19.1% 19.7% 19.5% 19.7% 其他收入及收益销售及分销成本 (271) (359) (423) (481) (528) 行政开支 (301) (343) (397) (432) (493) 其他开支 (6) (3) (4) (5) (5) 经营溢利财务收入财务成本 (12) (12) (22) (25) (25) 除税前溢利所得税开支 (16) (33) (38) (44) (55) 年内溢利母公司拥有人应占年内溢利非控股权益应占年内溢利资料来源 : 5

6 附录 2 公司资产负债表 HK$ m 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 现金及现金等价物 , 交易性金融资产应收款项合计 1,028 1, ,016 应收账款及票据其它应收款存货流动资产合计 2,064 2,168 2,358 2,407 2,398 固定资产净值其他长期投资商誉及无形资产其中 : 商誉土地使用权其他非流动资产非流动资产合计总资产 2,822 2,910 3,010 3,171 3,192 应付账款及票据应交税金交易性金融负债短期借贷及长期借贷当期到期部分其他流动负债流动负债合计 2,059 1,696 1,308 1,443 1,321 长期借贷其他非流动负债非流动负债合计总负债 2,063 2,085 1,469 1,464 1,340 优先股普通股股本储备 ,505 1,670 1,812 普通股权益总额 ,515 1,680 1,822 归属母公司股东权益 ,515 1,680 1,822 少数股东权益股东权益合计 ,541 1,707 1,852 总负债及总权益 2,822 2,910 3,010 3,171 3,192 资料来源 : 6

7 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Buy: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 7

8 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 8



February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)

公司报告好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 2013 年 4 月 5 日 好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 买入 目标价 :HK$5.3 潜在升幅 :25% 中国市场的增长刚刚启动 投资要点 2012 财年全年业绩 : 期内公司的收益约 亿港元, 同比增长 15.5%, 但略低于我们之前预期的

公司报告好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 2013 年 4 月 5 日好孩子国际 (1086.HK) 买入目标价 :HK$5.3 潜在升幅 :25% 中国市场的增长刚刚启动投资要点 2012 财年全年业绩 : 期内公司的收益约亿港元, 同比增长 15.5%, 但略低于我们之前预期的