Game Portfolio Focused on Texas Hold em Texas Hold em and Fight the Landlord. As of Jun-16, Boyaa s game portfolio increased to 55, most of which are

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Game Portfolio Focused on Texas Hold em Texas Hold em and Fight the Landlord. As of Jun-16, Boyaa s game portfolio increased to 55, most of which are"

泔段
7 years ago
Views:

1 公司报告公司快讯博雅互动 (434 HK) 网游龙头重拾动力公司快讯我们最近与博雅的管理层会面, 了解公司主营游戏及支付渠道的最新业务发展以及未来的游戏规划博雅是少数于中国及东盟国家专注从事牌类游戏的领先游戏开发商和运营商, 目前运营 55 个自主研发的游戏, 其中德州扑克和斗地主是最畅销的游戏, 分别占 16 上半年收益的 76% 和 11% 纪要盈利能见度高牌类游戏的 ARPU( 平均每用户收益 ) 及客户群一般能维持长远增长, 原因是玩家的粘度和消费行为比较稳定因此, 大部分经典的牌类游戏较潮流带动的游戏拥有更长的生命周期举例说, 博雅的旗舰游戏德州扑克自 2008 年起一直营运至今, 建立了良好的品牌声誉和稳固的玩家网络长远而言, 牌类游戏的特点有助提高博雅的盈利能见度积极拓展博雅依赖 Facebook App Store 微博等发行商发行内容, 并且通过电信商支付宝财付通等的支付渠道让玩家进行应用内购买展望未来, 为丰富游戏产品种类, 博雅现正开发更多具地方特色的棋牌游戏, 致力满足中国和海外市场不同文化和喜好的玩家博雅计划将游戏数目由现时的 55 增加至超过 100 为扩展客户群, 博雅与电信商合作预安装游戏及举办线下比赛 ( 例如博雅国际扑克大赛 ), 以吸纳新客户及强化客户粘度毛利率上升潜力佳 2015 年, 博雅由于电信商更改短信收费制度而受到一次性的负面影响, 促使其将支付渠道转移到第三方支付平台, 例如支付宝和财付通等一般而言, 电信商收取的佣金达到总收益的 30-35%, 而第三方支付平台仅收取 1-3% 16 上半年, 使用支付宝 / 财付通付款的交易增加至占总数的 20% 以上, 带动博雅同期毛利率按年跃升 13 个百分点至 64% 随着集团继续扩展及完善其支付系统, 预期毛利率将可持续增长前景亮丽博雅积极强化游戏产品组合及支付渠道, 管理层看好 2016 年业务前景博雅 16 上半年财年经常性净利润增长为 52%, 年收益的年复合增长率为 16% 公司创办人张伟先生及其家族持有 32% 股权根据彭博预测, 股票现价相当于 16/17 财年预测市盈率 13/12 倍, 相比其他香港上市的网游供应商, 博雅估值合理博雅基本面稳健,16 财年增长显着, 我们建议投资者关注主要风险包括腾讯及其他对手加剧同业竞争中国科技 / 通信技术 2016 年 10 月 12 日未评级目标价收盘价 (11 Oct 16) N/A HKD5.00 Upside/downside (%) 恒生指数总市值 (HKDm/USDm) 3,826/ 周最高 / 最低 (HKD) 日均成交额 (USDm) 1.77 流通量 (%) 60 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 (HKD) (%) Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 绝对回报 (USD, %) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介 Price(LHS) 博雅互动国际有限公司致力于在海内外研发与运营在线棋牌游戏资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究部 Rel. to HSI(RHS) Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) FY13A FY14A FY15A 营业额经营盈利 EBITDA 实际盈利每股实际盈利 (RMB) 每股实际盈利增长 (%) (49.7) 市盈率 (x) 市净率 (x) 净资产收益率 (%) 资产报酬率 (%) 资料来源 : 公司数据彭博及国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究部姜正浩证监会中央编号 :BGL kevin.jiang@guosen.com.hk 俞励颉, CFA 证监会中央编号 : AUX jackson.yu@guosen.com.hk 谢嘉熙证监会中央编号 : christopher.tse@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

2 Game Portfolio Focused on Texas Hold em Texas Hold em and Fight the Landlord. As of Jun-16, Boyaa s game portfolio increased to 55, most of which are card games and offered as both web-based games and mobile games. Texas Hold em, its most popular game, was the first title it developed and operated. It has over 10 language versions, including simplified Chinese, traditional Chinese, English, Thai, Indonesian and German. This game series accounted for 76%/70% of Boyaa s 1H16/FY15 revenue, followed by 11%/18% from another successful poker game, Fight the Landlord. Boyaa also has some classic games such as Big Two, Mahjong series and Chinese Chess. In 1H16, revenue generated from mobile games and web-based games accounted for approximately 62% and 38% of its total revenue respectively versus 1H15 s 59% and 41%. Figure 3 Revenue Breakdown By Game (%) Figure 4 1H16 Revenue Breakdown By Segment Web game 38% Mobile game 62% 20 0 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H16 Texas Hold em Fight the Landlord Others Source: Company Data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Source: Company Data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Game Pipeline. Going forward, to expand its game portfolio, Boyaa will leverage its research capabilities to develop more popular localized card and board games in China and overseas catering to different cultures and gamer preferences. It will also enhance features and functions of its mobile games, such as improving in-game real-time chatting and releasing additional language version of its running games. The group intends to increase its game portfolio from 55 to over a hundred in the future. O2O Events. To strengthen its brand recognition and user base, Boyaa is placing emphasis on hosting online and offline competitions and player interactive activities. Boyaa Poker Tournament, its offline international poker tournament, has greatly enhanced the awareness and loyalty of players towards its games. Boyaa also hosted the Huawei Fight the Landlord Spring Race in cooperation with Huawei in Apr-16. For in-app activities, Boyaa organizes plenty of daily competitions in most of its games. Figure 5 Game Portfolio of Boyaa Source: Company Information, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

3 Shifting to Alipay/Tenpay Boyaa relies on distribution platforms payment systems, pre-paid game cards and other thirdparty payment channels for in-game virtual tokens transactions. In 2015, Chinese telecom operators, i.e. China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, suspended SMS payment due to the government s new stringent measures over telecom operators. This one-time event negatively affected Boyaa s in-game gross revenue since Mar15 as large portion of its paying users (up to 40%) were paying through telecom operators. In response, Boyaa accelerated its payment channel migration from telecom operators to some third party payment operators such as Alipay and Tenpay in China. In 1H16, transactions via Alipay and Tenpay already exceeded 20% of the total, which largely resolved its payment bottleneck. Notably, Alipay and Tenpay merely take 1-3% grossing commissions from the transaction while telecom operators in the past charges over 30. With the Boyaa could enjoy further margin upside as it continues to expand and perfect its payment system. Threat from Tencent A Potential Risk Boyaa mainly competes with other domestic game developers and operators such as Tencent, Ourgame and JJworld, who also have a basket of classic card games such as Fight the Landlord, Texas Hold em, etc, in their game portfolio. As the industry leader, Tencent fully leverages to its substantial user base, superior publishing and distribution channel and payment platform. Yet Boyaa still heavily relies on distributors and traffic owners in China such as Baidu and Qihoo 360 on game publication and distribution. Competition with Tencent remains visible and keen in the near future while Boyaa could stand out on its early entrance position in the industry, highly engaging player environment, localized game features and strong marketing capabilities, in our view. Figure 6 Peers Comparison Table Valuation Boyaa currently trades at 13x/12x FY16F/17F P/E on Bloomberg Consensus. The valuation is undemanding compared to other listed online game players in HK. We think investors should put Boyaa on radar given its solid fundamentals and visible growth from FY16. Company Ticker Price Mkt. Cap PE (x) 3Yr EPS PEG PS (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) LCY USDm LY 1FY 2FY CAGR (x) (x) 1FY 2FY 1FY 2FY 1FY 2FY Boyaa 434 HK Ourgame 6899 HK IGG 799 HK , Linekong 8267 HK N/A Forgame 484 HK N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tencent 700 HK Netease NTES US , Changyou CYOU US , N/A N/A Average Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4

4 Figure 7 P&L Summary RMBm FY13 FY14 FY15 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Texas Hold em Series Fight the Landlord Others Total revenue YoY growth (%) 32% 39% (14%) 10% (18%) (22%) (24%) (30%) (6%) Cost of revenue (265) (377) (386) (113) (103) (84) (87) (63) (65) Gross profit Selling and marketing expenses (148) (179) (147) (48) (60) (20) (18) (6) (8) Administrative expenses (111) (117) (140) (30) (39) (33) (38) (51) (54) Other gains-net Operating profit Finance income-net (12) Share of profit of associates (1) (1) (1) Profit before income tax Income tax expense (29) (55) (63) (8) (2) (11) (43) (9) (10) Non-controlling interests Reported net profit Underlying net profit* YoY growth (%) 31% 45% (50%) (7%) (79%) (18%) 236% 4% 331% Margins (%) Gross margin 61% 60% 53% 54% 47% 56% 53% 63% 64% Operating margin 26% 35% 46% 25% 0% 30% 139% 36% 42% Reported NP margin 20% 30% 44% 24% 8% 33% 119% 35% 39% Underlying net margin* 31% 32% 19% 24% 8% 31% 10% 33% 30% Source: Company Data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research *Based on our adjustments. Guosen Securities (HK) 5

5 Summary Financial Statements Profit & Loss (RMBm) FY13A FY14A FY15A Financial Ratios FY13A FY14A FY15A Revenue Gross profit margin (%) Revenue growth (%) (13.9) Operating profit margin (%) Cost of sales (265) (377) (386) Underlying profit margin (%) Gross profit Net debt/equity (%) (107) (95.0) (71.3) Other income/(expense) Net debt/total assets (%) (92.0) (81.7) (61.9) Operating expenses (259) (296) (287) Current ratio (%) Operating profit Dividend payout (%) Operating profit growth (%) (48.0) Interest cover (x) Other non-operating inc/(exp) Dividend cover (x) Finance income Acct. receivable turnover days Finance expenses (14) (6) (7) Acct. payable turnover days Associates & JCE Inventory turnover days Profit before taxation Cash cycle days (73.2) (61.2) Taxation (29) (55) (63) Dupont Analysis FY13A FY14A FY15A Non-controlling interests Tax burden (%) Net profit Interest burden (%) Other Adjustments on UP (207) Operating profit margin (%) Underlying Profit Asset turnover (x) Underlying profit growth (%) (50.3) Leverage ratio (x) EPS (RMB) ROA (%) Underlying EPS (RMB) ROE (%) Underlying EPS growth (%) (49.7) DPS (RMB) DPS growth (%) (44.0) (100) Balance Sheet (RMBm) FY13A FY14A FY15A Cashflow (RMBm) FY13A FY14A FY15A Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest expense 12 (2) (35) Non-current assets Change in working capital 9 (40) 3 Inventories Tax paid Debtors & prepayments Other operating cashflow 0 (56) (19) Bank deposits & cash 966 1,029 1,066 Operating activities Others Capex (7) (22) (16) Current assets 1,375 1,527 1,462 Free cash flow Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets 2 1, Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) 2 (12) 0 Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities Other investing cashflow (195) (1,253) (486) Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (196) (65) (91) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans Net assets 1,215 1,482 1,806 Dividends paid 0 (112) (45) Share capital Other financing cashflow Premium & reserves 1,214 1,472 1,806 Financing activities 680 (106) (42) Shareholders' funds 1,215 1,472 1,806 Inc/(dec) in cash Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year ,029 Total equity 1,215 1,482 1,806 Foreign exchange effect (3) 0 6 BVPS (RMB) Cash at end of year 966 1,029 1,066 Guosen Securities (HK) 6

6 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guo sen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. G uosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rath er than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in suc h securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clie nts are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This r eport is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authoriza tion, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal act ion. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guose n Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 7

7 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 8

,

公司报告业绩分析飞鱼科技 (1022 HK) 好戏在下半年举行飞鱼的业绩后路演后, 我们认为此前市场对飞鱼业绩反应过度通过与腾讯和奇虎 360 合作, 我们预期飞鱼的两款游戏保卫萝卜 3 及神仙道 2 于 16 下半年至 17 财年将可带来重大