Sector Report China railway sector Ticker Rating Price TP (HK$) (HK$) +/-upside CRCC 1186 HK BUY % CRG 390 HK BUY % CRCC

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1 行业报告 2018 年 8 月 8 日中国铁路行业股价目标价公司股票代号评级 ( 港元 ) ( 港元 ) 潜在升 / 跌幅中国铁建 1186 HK 买入 % 中国中铁 390 HK 买入 % 中国中车 1766 HK 买入 % 中国通号 3969 HK 买入 % 中车时化电气 3898 HK 持有 % 来源 : 彭博中国银河国际证券研究部备注 : 基于 2018 年 8 月 7 日收盘价铁路固定资产投资加快, 有助提振市场情绪 2018 年铁路固定资产投资有望达到 8000 亿元人民币, 超过原来 7,320 亿元的全年目标 8 月 7 日, 部份媒体报导中国铁路 2018 年的固定资产投资将达到 8,000 亿元人民币, 超市场预期在政府去杠杆的环境下, 中铁总于一月设立的 2018 年全年铁路投资目标为 7,320 亿元人民币, 同比下降 8.6% 基于经济环境充满挑战, 加上中美贸易战带来巨大不确定因素, 中央政府决定加大基建固定投资, 以稳定经济增长, 防止硬着陆我们认为铁路板块将是中央政府加大基建投资的重要一环, 主要是考虑到铁路在解决交通挤塞空气污染, 以及降低物流费用等范畴上扮演着重要的角色根据中铁总的资料,2018 年上半年的铁路投资达到 3127 亿元人民币, 与去年同期大致相同由于铁路投资增速加快, 我们预期全年的投资额将达到不少于 8,000 亿元人民币的水平预期 2018 年下半年将有更多新铁路项目开工铁路投资有望超过中铁总年初所定的全年目标, 主要由于受以下因素所带动 :(1) 中铁总致力扩张货运业务, 这将增加机车和货车的采购 ; 及 (2) 受中央政府刺激经济的需求所推动, 基础设施固定资产投资将加快中铁总的首要任务是通过铁路改革改善盈利能力及解低杠杆, 因此公司于 2016 年及 2017 年放慢了新项目开工的步伐中国铁路建设市场的两家龙头公司中国铁建 (1186.HK) 及中国中铁 (390.HK) 于 2016 年及 2017 年连续两年的铁路新合约数目录得下跌随着十三五逐渐步入尾声, 我们注意到铁路新合约数目于 2018 年上半年出现回升我们预期基于中央政府对基建, 尤其是铁路投资的支持, 新铁路项目开工数目将于 2018 年下半年开始进一步加快邹敏分析员 (852) kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk 王志文研究部主管 (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 新增铁路路线以及铁路改革预期将支持铁路设备行业的需求增长中铁总的货运业务扩张预期将增加机车和货车的采购公司有意于 2017 至 2020 年间把其货运量扩充 30% 根据财新近日的报导, 预期中铁总将于未来三年斥资逾 1,000 亿元人民币购买 216,000 架货车及 3,756 架机车公司于 2017 年订购了 722 架机车及 43,048 架货车另外, 新增铁路路线预期将带动 2019 年至 2020 年的动车需求增长根据十三五规划目标, 我们预计 2018 年至 2020 年新增铁路路线可能达到 7,000-8,000 公里, 是 2016 年至 2017 年年新增线路的三倍多铁路行业首推股 : 中国铁建 (1186.HK) 及中国中车 (1766.HK) 中国铁建是我们的首选建筑股该股股价在近几周反弹后, 估值仍低于历史平均相较中国中铁 (390.HK) 及中国交通建设 (1800.HK), 我们较喜欢中国铁建 (1186.HK), 理由是后者的财务较为稳健公司亦较其他同业更能受惠于 2018 年下半年开始的铁路投资增速加快铁路设备板块方面, 我们较看好中国中车 (1766.HK) 个股的股价表现仍落后于其他建筑及铁路设备公司, 其股价自今年年初至今已下跌约 20% 由于公司的盈利有望于 2018 年见底回升, 相信将有估值重估的机会 ( 按公司阅读中国铁建及中国中车的最新公司报告 ) 1

2 Sector Report China railway sector Ticker Rating Price TP (HK$) (HK$) +/-upside CRCC 1186 HK BUY % CRG 390 HK BUY % CRCC 1766 HK BUY % CRSC 3969 HK BUY % CRRC Times 3898 HK HOLD %, Note: based on closing prices on 7 August 2018 August 8, 2018 Upward trend in railway FAI expected to improve market sentiment 2018 railway FAI is likely to reach Rmb800bn, exceeding the initial full-year target of Rmb732bn. According to some media news releases on 7 August, China s railway FAI in 2018 is likely to reach Rmb800bn, exceeding market expectations. Under the deleveraging environment, China Railway Corporation (CRC) set the railway investment target for 2018 at Rmb732bn in January, implying a YoY decrease of 8.6%. Facing a challenging environment and great uncertainties related to the US trade dispute, the central government has decided to put more stimulus on infrastructure FAI to stabilize economic growth and prevent a hard landing. The railway segment is the key area for central government s infrastructure investment boost in our view, considering railway s importance in resolving traffic congestion and air pollution problems and reducing logistics costs. According to CRC data, railway investment in 1H18 reached Rmb312.7bn, which was largely flat YoY. As railway investment accelerates, we expect railway investment to reach no less than Rmb800bn in New railway project starts expected to further accelerate from 2H18. Railway investment is expected to exceed the initial full-year CRC target, driven mainly by 1) CRC s freight business expansion, which should boost its locomotive and freight wagon procurement, and 2) infrastructure FAI acceleration, spurred by the central government s need to stimulate economic growth. CRC s priority is railway reform to improve profitability and reduce leverage. So it slowed down new project starts in 2016 and The two leaders in China s railway construction market, CRCC (1186 HK) and CRG (390 HK), saw new contract wins in the railway sector decline for two consecutive years in 2016 and Towards the end of the 13th FYP, in 1H18, growth in railway new contract wins recovered. We expect the central government s support for infrastructure investment, especially railway investment, to further accelerate new railway project starts from 2H18 on. Kelly Zou Analyst (852) kellyzou@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man Head of Research (852) cmwong@chinastock.com.hk Increases in new line additions and railway reforms expected to boost demand growth for the railway equipment sector. CRC s freight business expansion is expected to boost its locomotive and freight wagon procurement. The railway aims to grow its freight transportation volume by 30% in According to recent Caixin news, the CRC is expected to spend over Rmb100bn to purchase 216,000 freight wagons and 3,756 locomotives in the next three years. In 2017, CRC ordered 722 locomotives and 43,048 freight wagons. The increases in new line additions are also expected to drive demand growth for MUs in Given the 13th FYP target, we expect new line additions in E to likely reach 7,000-8,000 km p.a., more than triple the new line additions in CRCC and CRRC (1766 HK) are our top picks in the railway sector. CRCC is our top pick in the construction sector. After the share price rally during recent weeks, the stock is still trading below its historical average in terms of valuation. We prefer CRCC over CRG (390 HK) and CCC (1800 HK) because of CRCC s stronger balance sheet. The Company also stands to benefit more than its peers from railway investment acceleration from 2H18 onwards. In the railway equipment sector, we prefer CRRC (1766 HK). The stock is still a laggard in terms of share price performance compared to construction companies and its railway equipment peers. The share price has fallen about 20% CYTD. With the potential of earnings bottoming out in 2018, there should be a re-rating opportunity for CRRC. (Please click here for our latest note on CRCC and click here for our latest note on 2 CRRC.)

3 H18 Figure 1: Railway construction and railway equipment companies share price performance CYTD 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 CRCC CRG CRRC CRSC CRRC Times Electric HSI Index Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research Figure 2: China railway investment % 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% Railway FAI (Rmb bn) % YoY chg (rhs) Sources: CRC, CGIS Research 3

4 Figure 3: Construction company peer comparison Ticker Mkt cap Price PT PER EPS growth PEG P/Bk EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROE Up/Down US$ m (lc) (lc) Rec % E 2019E E 2019E 2018E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E H-share infrastructure construction companies CRCC 1186 HK 21, Buy 19.2% % 14.3% 14.0% % 2.3% 2.6% 9.9% 10.2% 10.5% CRG 390 HK 19, Buy 18.6% % 15.6% 12.7% % 2.3% 2.6% 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% CCC 1800 HK 28, Hold 14.2% % 8.6% 11.7% % 3.2% 3.6% 11.8% 10.5% 10.5% CSCI 3311 HK 5, Hold 16.7% % 13.9% 19.7% % 4.0% 4.8% 16.4% 16.1% 16.1% A-share infrastructure construction China State Construction CH 35, NR NR NR % 15.9% 18.6% na na 2.6% 3.2% 3.6% 16.1% 14.7% 15.2% CRCC CH 21, Buy 13.5% % 14.3% 14.0% % 1.8% 2.0% 9.9% 10.2% 10.5% CRG CH 19,383 na 9.10 Buy na na na na 29.4% 15.6% 12.7% na na na na na na na na na na 9.8% 10.4% 10.6% CCC CH 28, Hold -1.2% % 8.6% 11.7% % 1.7% 1.9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.9% Power Construction Corp CH 12, NR NR NR % 12.4% 11.9% na na na 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 10.1% 9.7% 9.9% MCC CH 10, NR NR NR % 28.1% 10.8% na na na 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 8.3% 8.1% 8.3% China Gezhouba Group CH 5, NR NR NR % 11.7% 17.5% na na na 3.4% 3.9% 4.6% 18.7% 12.0% 12.5% China Nuclear Engineering CH 3, NR NR NR % 15.6% 13.5% na na na na na 0.6% na na 10.5% na na International constructon companies Daelim Industrial KS 2,474 79,800 NR NR NR % 42.3% -16.6% % 1.1% 1.1% 8.8% 12.7% 9.7% Daewoo Engineering KS 2,025 5,470 NR NR NR na 55.9% 3.1% % 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 16.2% 14.5% GS Engineering KS 3,046 44,300 NR NR NR % na -15.4% % 0.8% 0.9% -5.4% 15.4% 11.5% Hyundai Development KS ,000 NR NR NR % -2.3% 13.0% % 10.9% 10.0% 13.7% 12.4% 12.6% Hyundai Engineering KS 5,773 58,200 NR NR NR % 160.2% 13.7% % 0.9% 1.0% 3.1% 7.8% 8.1% Taisei Corp 1801 JP 10,814 5,360 NR NR NR % -1.5% 6.9% % 2.4% 2.5% 17.3% 14.9% 14.4% Obayashi Corp 1802 JP 7,002 1,080 NR NR NR % -0.2% 0.8% % 2.7% 2.9% 14.8% 13.1% 11.9% Shimizu Corp 1803 JP 7,666 1,082 NR NR NR % 18.6% -2.9% % 2.5% 2.6% 13.5% 14.0% 12.3% Kajima Corp 1812 JP 8, NR NR NR % -9.6% -0.2% % 2.9% 3.0% 18.0% 14.1% 12.7% Bouygues Sa EN FP 16, NR NR NR % -13.4% 10.7% % 4.5% 4.5% 12.5% 10.3% 10.8% Vinci SA DG FP 58, NR NR NR % 8.6% 7.9% % 3.1% 3.4% 15.4% 16.0% 15.8% Koninklijke Boskalis BOKA NA 4, NR NR NR na -13.0% 21.2% % 3.7% 3.7% 5.1% 4.3% 5.0% Gamuda Bhd GAM MK 2, NR NR NR % 5.5% 6.7% % 3.3% 3.4% 9.7% 9.7% 9.5% IJM Corp BHD IJM MK 1, NR NR NR % 0.0% 5.5% na % 3.5% 3.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.4% Downer EDI DOW AU 3, NR NR NR % 14.0% 7.1% % 4.0% 4.3% 8.5% 9.4% 9.7% Larsen & Toubro Ltd LT IN 26,477 1, NR NR NR % 23.5% 16.2% % 1.5% 1.7% 12.6% 13.6% 14.0% Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research, Note: based on closing prices on 7 August, 2018 Figure 4: Railway equipment company peer comparison Ticker Mkt cap Price PT PER EPS growth PEG P/Bk Dividend yield ROE Up/Down US$ m (lc) (lc) Rec % E 2019E E 2019E 2018E E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E H-share railway equipment companies CRSC 3969 HK 6, Buy 45.7% % 22.5% 19.3% % 3.8% 4.6% 13.8% 15.1% 16.1% CRRC 1766 HK 34, Buy 30.7% % 15.2% 17.1% % 2.9% 3.3% 8.9% 9.6% 10.5% CRRC Times Electric 3898 HK 6, Hold -21.3% % 9.1% 14.7% % 1.2% 1.4% 14.2% 13.8% 14.1% A-share railway equipment companies CRRC CH 34, Buy 37.5% % 15.2% 17.1% % 2.0% 2.3% 8.9% 9.6% 10.5% China High-speed CH 1, NR NR NR % -0.3% 21.6% % na na 12.2% 10.9% 11.8% Guangdong KAIP CH 1, NR NR NR % 7.4% 19.2% % 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 11.6% 12.2% Beijing Dinghan CH NR NR NR % 250.7% 8.0% % 1.7% 1.9% 3.1% 9.8% 9.8% Nanjing Kangni CH NR NR NR % 58.0% 25.1% % 1.8% 2.2% 8.8% 12.2% 13.4% Zhejiang Yonggui CH NR NR NR % 34.0% 24.6% % 0.7% 0.7% 6.4% 7.9% 9.1% Overseas railway equipment companies Siemens SIE GR 110, NR NR NR % 2.6% 7.5% % 3.4% 3.5% 13.7% 13.4% 13.2% Bombardier BBD/A CN 9, NR NR NR na 193.3% 106.8% % na na -1.1% -4.5% -10.8% Alstom ALO FP 9, NR NR NR % -11.8% 5.5% % 1.3% 1.6% 12.7% 12.3% 12.2% GE GE US 113, NR NR NR % -11.0% 12.5% % 3.7% 3.7% 14.2% 18.8% 23.2% Ansaldo STS STS IM 2, NR NR NR % 32.8% 11.3% % 1.2% 1.2% 8.8% 10.6% 10.9% Hollysys HOLI US 1, NR NR NR % 17.9% 15.2% % 0.9% 1.0% 13.4% 13.8% 13.7% Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research, Note: based on closing prices on 7 August,

5 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Figure 5: CRCC-H EV/EBITDA band Figure 6: CRG-H EV/EBITDA band EV/EBITDA Average +1 Std -1 Std EV/EBITDA Average +1 Std -1 Std Figure 7: CRRC-H forward PER band Figure 8: CRSC forward PER band mth forward PER Average +1 Std -1 Std 12-mth forward PER Average +1 Std -1 Std Figure 9: CRRC Times Electric forward PER band Average +1 Std -1 Std 12-mth forward PER 5

6 免责声明此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用, 而在该等司法管辖范围内分发发布提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 银河国际证券 ) 及 / 或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求银河国际证券 ( 中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一 ) 发行此报告 ( 包括任何附载资料 ) 予机构客户, 并相信其资料来源都是可靠的, 但不会对其准确性正确性或完整性作出 ( 明示或默示 ) 陈述或保证此报告不应被视为是一种报价邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证, 及没有陈述或保证, 明示或默示, 是为针对未来的表现而作出的收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险, 投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问报告中任何部份之资料意见预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点, 该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附属公司 ( 中国银河国际 ) 董事行政人员代理及雇员 ( 相关人士 ) 之投资决定相符报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断, 日后如有改变, 恕不另行通告中国银河国际及 / 或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告及其附件之不准确不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任因此, 读者在阅读本报告时, 应连同此声明一并考虑, 并必须小心留意此声明内容利益披露中国银河证券 (6881.HK; CH) 乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益, 而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵, 且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资本值的 1%; 一位或多位中国银河国际的董事行政人员及 / 或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能, 在法律许可的情况下, 不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易, 为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及 / 或对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人, 或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动, 或在过去 12 个月内, 曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务再者, 中国银河国际可能在过去 12 个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托分析员保证主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点 ; 及 (b) 他或他们过往, 现在或将来, 直接或间接, 所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的此外, 分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者 ( 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义 ) 均没有 (1) 在研究报告发出前 30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票 ;(2) 在研究报告发出后 3 个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票 ;(3) 担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员 ;(4) 持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益评级指标买入 : 股价于 12 个月内将上升 >20% 沽出持有 : : 股价于个月内将下跌没有催化因素, 由买入降级直至出现明确买入讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出版权所有中文本与英文本如有歧义, 概以英文本为准本题材的任何部份不可在未经中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司的书面批准下以任何形式被复制或发布中国银河国际证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 中央编号 : AXM459) 香港上环干诺道中 111 号永安中心 20 楼电话 :

Anhui Conch [914.HK] 1H15 Results In Line; Likely to Get Better in 2H. Maintain BUY Anhui Conch recorded a 43.2% year-on-year (YoY) decline in recurri

Anhui Conch [914.HK] 1H15 Results In Line; Likely to Get Better in 2H. Maintain BUY Anhui Conch recorded a 43.2% year-on-year (YoY) decline in recurri 安徽海螺 [914.HK] 中期业绩符合预期 ; 下半年有望转好 ; 维持买入评级安徽海螺 215 上半年经常性净利润同比下跌 43.2% 至 33 亿元人民币, 略低于我们预期的同比下跌 41% 期内公司吨毛利下降 35 个百分点至 58.6 元人民币, 略低于我们预期的 6 元人民币每吨然而, 公司的市净率处于 6 年低点 1.46 倍, 我们维持早前的观点, 即是在旺季于第三季下旬 / 第四季上旬到来的时候,