Guotai Junan (HK) 2004.................................................. 3.............................................................. 37............................................................... 38 (0836).......................................................... 42 (0902).......................................................... 46 (0991).......................................................... 51 (1071).......................................................... 56................................................................. 60 (0588).......................................................... 65 (0604).......................................................... 68 (0688)...................................................... 72 (2868).......................................................... 76................................................................. 80 (0966).......................................................... 85 (2318)...................................................... 88 (2328).......................................................... 95 (2628).......................................................... 100 1......................................................... 104 (0670)...................................................... 110 (0694)...................................................... 113 (1055)...................................................... 117................................................................. 120 (0183)...................................................... 123 (0349).......................................................... 127 (2388).......................................................... 130................................................................... 134 (0177).......................................................... 139 (0548).......................................................... 142 (0576)........................................................ 146 (0995).......................................................... 149............................................................... 153 (0325).......................................................... 160 (0338).......................................................... 164 (0368).......................................................... 168 (0386).......................................................... 172 (1128).......................................................... 180................................................................... 184 (0728).......................................................... 190 (0762).......................................................... 195 (0941).......................................................... 199
................................................................... 203 (0719).......................................................... 206 (0874).......................................................... 209 (1093).......................................................... 212 (8069)........................................................ 216............................................................. 218 (0124).......................................................... 222 (0168).......................................................... 225 (0249)........................................................ 229 (0506).......................................................... 233................................................................... 237 (0857).......................................................... 243 (0883)............................................................ 249 (1171).......................................................... 254 (2883)...................................................... 258 2................................................................... 262 (0267).......................................................... 265 (0270).......................................................... 268 (0291).......................................................... 271 (0363).......................................................... 275 (0392).......................................................... 280 (0882).......................................................... 283............................................................. 286......................................................... 289 (0358)......................................................... 295 (2600)......................................................... 300 (2899)......................................................... 305................................................................. 309 (0323)....................................................... 314 (0347)....................................................... 317 (1053)......................................................... 320 (0914)...................................................... 323............................................................. 329 (0144)........................................................ 336 (0598).......................................................... 340 (1138).......................................................... 343 (1199)........................................................ 346 (2866).......................................................... 350................................................................... 354 (0187).......................................................... 355 (0980).......................................................... 359 (0981).......................................................... 363 (2333).......................................................... 367 (2698).......................................................... 370
2004 Guotai Junan (HK) 65 12-14 GTJA China Shares Universe + 2002 2006 15 (%) 15 (%) 15 16 16 1993 500 16 17 2002 2006 17 17 18 19 2002 2006 20 20 2004 20 3 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25
2004 26 2004 27 A 28 B 28 A 28 B 28 29 HA 29 HA 29 1999 2004 30 2002 2004 30 30 30 2004 31 2004 31 1993 31 1993 31 32 4 Brent 32 32 CRB 32 33-36 36
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 Larry Jiang Betty Ng 0404 05 GDP04 9% 05 8% GDP 046% 054.5% 04 04 06500 0420.9% 059.8%2 5 de-rating
3 18 (1) 20 95.4%12 1404 05 0618.5% 5.6% 5.6%70% 33 818.3% 6.6% 8.4% 196200A 26.9% 14.9% 10.7% 6 (2) 1978 18%03 40%2 (3) 300 PMI 6 13A4 04 0380%1997 (4) 33 36 5 0.751.0 01 03 1.01993 7
Guotai Junan (HK) 24 25 (5) 6 1804 05 06 14.2 13.3 12.315.0% 9.4% 8.2% 1.7 1.6 1.5 05 4.1% 14.6% 19 04 05 06 9.6 9.0 8.617.9% 2.0% 4.2% 1.4 1.3 1.205 3.9% 15.5% 1865 04 05 06 10.1 9.6 9.1 11.5% 1.8% 4.9% 1.6 1.4 1.305 3.9% 15.9%6512 14 3 11 5 04 05 17.6 16.5 15.1 14.5 5 17 04 13.1 8.70512.3 8.1 11,000 3,5002004 20 7 (6) (7) QDII QDII HA HA58.4%19.7% 83.8% 29 HA29 A03 31.304 04 22.420 03 1.4%3.0 10.2%28 4100 A
04 14,0585,4410315,000 5,500 6 7.2% 20.5%1993 31 30.2% 19.0%1993 3103 1214,00004 0516.8 15.7 20 12 5,000 04 0512.2 11.5 QDII 5,500 6,0000512.7 13.8 17 8 12 11,000 3,500 611,00004 06 13.2 12.4 11.4 203,50004 06 8.5 8.1 7.7 17 3,500 03 1011 3,500 4,00012,000 4,500 7,50004 0618.3 17.3 16.5 172 03 03 04
Guotai Junan (HK) 1 5 2 3 4 5 17 6 18 04 6 (1) 04 3 (2) QDII 1 AHHA 29H AA HAA H (3) 15 04 9 (4) 03 (5) (6) 5 5 3 5 6 18
04 0403 12 04 1 5 5,441 5,500 6,0003 1 14,058 15,000 5 17 3,502 10,918 4,000 12,00004 6 18 2 03 6 03 04 4 4,450 5,4504 63,500 4,450 1 2 12,6653 1 14,058 56 10,900 12,500 10 04 02 10 11 1,74604 1 55,441 3,700 3,502 50%045,441 250 85% 3,502 03 10114 3,500 4 13 5,0545 173,502 43 6 5
Guotai Junan (HK) dollar carry trade VaR Value at Risk 04 0220.0% 0326.5% 04 42.2%02 19.2% 0316.8% 04 19.5%1999 200430 04 63.5%36.6% 12 6 11 45 03 1204
12 65 (1) 04 6 18 () (%) ( ) (%) / ( ) (%) (%) 03 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 () ()(%) 04 05 06 () 0836 3.95 9.0 0.20 0.29 0.41 0.46 39.7 45.1 10.0 13.8 9.5 8.7 1.8 2.6 2.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 4.90 19.4 11.4 14.8 14.4 15,042 0902 6.45 (1.4) 0.43 0.48 0.57 0.61 13.0 17.5 8.2 13.4 11.4 10.5 4.1 4.8 5.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 8.00 19.4 17.3 18.5 18.2 77,757 0991 5.85 5.4 0.33 0.40 0.43 0.48 21.1 7.0 11.0 14.6 13.6 12.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 6.70 12.7 13.4 13.3 13.7 30,203 1071 2.4 (26.2) 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.25 9.5 14.6 7.5 11.9 10.4 9.6 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.55 5.9 11.8 12.3 12.1 12,615 14.5 17.1 8.5 13.5 11.5 10.5 3.5 4.1 4.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 15.3 16.4 16.2 135,616 (3.3) 16.7 18.0 8.9 13.4 11.2 10.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 13.5 14.7 14.6 0588 1.3 (16.7) 0.15 0.09 0.10 0.10 (37.6) 6.8 3.0 14.4 13.4 13.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.33 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 2,427 0604 0.93 (18.4) 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.12 19.8 (3.4) 9.4 8.0 8.3 7.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.03 9.6 8.2 7.5 7.8 2,296 0688 1.16 (18.3) 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.10 (13.5) (9.3) 0.1 10.5 11.6 11.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.26 8.1 6.8 6.0 5.8 7,382 2868 1.44 (29.8) 0.17 0.13 0.15 0.17 (27.4) 21.2 9.3 11.3 9.4 8.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.83 21.3 9.8 11.2 12.9 2,323 (14.4) (5.6) 2.1 10.6 10.7 10.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.9 6.7 6.9 14,428 (20.8) (15.1) (1.5) 4.1 11.1 10.7 10.2 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 7.1 7.1 7.6 0966 3.375 (14.6) 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.20 (24.8) 30.4 95.4 42.3 32.5 16.6 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.87 12.7 3.9 4.8 8.8 4,494 2318 10.33 n.a. 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.66 7.4 9.1 27.0 21.7 19.9 15.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 13.08 21.0 14.3 12.2 13.9 63,995 2328 2.775 (20.1) 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.19 12.6 9.9 (4.0) 15.3 13.9 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.76 (0.5) 11.8 11.5 9.9 30,921 2628 4.2 (33.9) 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 18.8 19.6 11.8 17.1 14.3 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 4.71 10.8 10.0 10.7 10.7 112,412 16.0 17.0 13.6 18.2 15.8 13.9 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 11.4 11.2 11.5 211,822 (22.9) 14.0 15.4 13.7 24.1 20.1 14.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 10.0 9.8 10.8 0670 1.49 12.9 (0.18) 0.07 0.11 0.09 n.a. 50.3 (16.4) 20.1 13.4 16.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 n.a. n.a. 5.9 8.4 6.7 7,252 0694 2.15 (18.9) 0.10 0.16 0.18 0.19 64.3 13.0 8.7 13.6 12.0 11.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.84 24.4 8.6 9.2 9.5 8,269 1055 2.775 (16.5) (0.09) 0.14 0.20 0.19 n.a. 37.6 (5.7) 19.4 14.1 15.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 n.a. n.a. 5.4 7.0 6.2 12,138 n.a. 31.7 (3.7) 17.3 13.2 13.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.5 8.0 7.3 27,659 (7.5) n.a. 31.1 (3.8) 17.7 13.2 14.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.6 8.2 7.5 0183 2.7 (35.7) 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.27 16.3 7.4 1.3 11.1 10.3 10.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.08 12.2 9.7 9.6 9.0 8,620 0349 9.3 (13.5) 0.71 0.74 0.86 0.96 3.4 17.0 11.4 12.6 10.8 9.7 4.3 5.6 6.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 10.36 10.3 9.6 10.5 11.1 9,746 2388 12.55 (14.0) 0.75 0.84 0.96 1.00 11.4 14.7 4.3 15.0 13.0 12.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 13.04 3.8 14.3 15.5 15.2 132,689 11.4 14.7 4.3 14.5 12.7 12.1 4.5 5.2 5.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 13.7 14.8 14.6 151,055 (21.1) 11.1 14.3 4.6 12.9 11.4 10.8 4.3 5.1 5.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 11.2 11.9 11.8 0177 3.225 (21.8) 0.19 0.21 0.16 0.19 9.1 (22.1) 17.4 15.7 20.1 17.2 4.5 3.7 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 3.26 1.0 8.3 6.3 7.3 16,247 0548 2.325 (16.2) 0.39 0.16 0.19 0.22 (58.0) 15.6 14.7 14.2 12.3 10.7 4.9 6.1 6.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.58 35.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 5,070 0576 4.875 (10.6) 0.22 0.27 0.31 0.34 25.0 14.7 8.5 17.8 15.5 14.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 4.20 (16.0) 12.1 13.1 13.4 21,173 0995 2.8 (5.9) 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.32 16.6 18.6 15.6 12.1 10.2 8.8 3.4 3.7 4.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 3.81 26.5 8.8 9.8 10.6 4,644 10.1 1.4 11.6 15.9 15.5 13.8 4.0 4.0 4.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 9.8 9.8 10.4 47,134 (13.6) (3.7) 2.5 12.8 15.0 14.5 12.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 8.9 9.1 9.8
Guotai Junan (HK) 65 (2) 04 6 18 () (%) ( ) (%) / ( ) (%) (%) 03 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 ()() (%) 04 05 06 () 0325 2.175 (28.1) 0.18 0.26 0.29 0.27 45.1 14.3 (9.6) 8.5 7.4 8.2 3.1 3.6 3.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.40 9.4 14.5 14.8 12.2 7,338 0338 2.2 (36.2) 0.18 0.32 0.38 0.36 76.3 18.0 (6.1) 6.8 5.8 6.1 5.9 7.1 6.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 2.40 8.3 14.5 14.2 11.1 15,840 0368 1.06 (30.7) 0.11 0.20 0.21 0.23 79.5 2.3 11.2 5.2 5.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.70 37.6 23.4 19.3 17.7 3,775 0386 2.675 (23.0) 0.23 0.31 0.32 0.33 31.0 3.8 2.9 8.7 8.4 8.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.40 (11.5) 15.9 14.8 13.9 231,929 1128 6.6 (2.9) 0.41 0.62 0.70 0.77 51.4 14.1 9.6 10.7 9.4 8.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 7.20 8.3 16.8 17.1 16.7 16,657 31.3 3.9 2.8 8.6 8.1 7.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 15.9 15.0 13.9 275,539 (24.2) 35.6 5.6 2.3 8.0 7.2 7.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 17.0 16.1 14.3 0728 2.45 (23.4) 0.31 0.35 0.36 0.35 13.4 1.7 (0.2) 7.0 6.9 6.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 3.13 21.8 20.8 18.0 15.8 198,284 0762 5.75 (20.7) 0.32 0.45 0.50 0.56 43.1 10.7 10.8 12.7 11.5 10.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 6.79 15.3 8.4 8.7 9.0 72,229 0941 22.4 (6.1) 1.71 1.83 2.05 2.18 7.1 12.4 6.3 12.3 10.9 10.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 23.42 4.4 17.7 17.3 16.3 440,653 9.2 9.6 4.8 10.2 9.4 9.1 2.7 3.0 3.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 17.6 16.7 15.4 711,166 (16.7) 11.9 7.9 4.2 10.7 9.8 9.2 2.8 3.0 3.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 15.6 14.7 13.7 0358 2.9 (32.2) 0.18 0.44 0.48 0.49 144.7 9.5 1.9 6.6 6.0 5.9 7.5 8.3 8.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.00 27.5 22.0 21.0 19.2 7,726 2600 3.625 (38.6) 0.32 0.64 0.77 0.81 100.9 19.8 5.3 5.7 4.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 6.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 5.00 27.5 32.0 28.5 24.7 40,056 2899 2.4 (22.0) 0.16 0.17 0.21 0.23 11.7 22.4 9.7 13.8 11.3 10.3 3.6 4.4 4.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.60 7.7 25.3 25.8 24.5 6,308 100.4 19.5 5.2 6.2 5.2 5.0 5.4 6.4 6.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 29.8 27.1 23.9 54,089 (30.9) 97.4 18.6 5.1 8.7 7.3 6.9 5.5 6.4 6.7 2.0 1.7 1.5 26.4 25.1 22.8 0719 1.28 (30.8) 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.11 (23.6) 6.5 32.0 15.7 14.7 11.2 2.0 2.7 3.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.83 30.1 3.4 3.6 4.8 585 0874 1.53 (21.1) 0.17 0.14 0.19 0.22 (17.4) 33.5 17.1 10.9 8.1 6.9 3.0 4.1 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.76 44.6 4.7 6.2 7.3 1,241 1093 1.9 (23.2) 0.33 0.25 0.28 0.31 (24.1) 9.4 11.1 7.5 6.9 6.2 4.0 4.4 4.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.00 36.6 17.2 16.7 16.5 2,922 8069 16.75 22.7 0.90 1.12 1.38 1.57 24.5 22.8 14.0 15.0 12.2 10.7 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 21.66 22.7 30.6 31.2 29.6 3,062 (12.4) 15.5 12.9 10.5 9.0 7.9 3.2 3.8 4.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 19.4 19.7 19.3 7,810 (13.1) (13.7) 16.6 14.0 12.3 10.5 8.7 2.9 3.6 4.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 14.0 14.4 14.6 0124 1.85 6.3 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.13 7.9 20.0 21.8 20.4 17.0 14.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.17 14.7 11.2 10.7 10.5 2,580 0168 6.65 (26.9) 0.23 0.26 0.34 0.43 14.8 30.2 28.2 25.6 19.7 15.3 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 10.12 34.3 6.7 8.6 8.6 7,049 0249 5.55 77.6 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.24 32.7 20.0 30.6 35.8 29.9 22.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 2.71 (105.0) 14.0 15.2 17.7 5,566 0506 3.9 (22.0) 0.25 0.29 0.35 0.40 14.1 21.6 16.2 13.6 11.2 9.6 2.8 3.4 3.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.55 40.5 11.8 13.4 14.3 6,853 16.1 23.8 22.0 20.8 16.8 13.8 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 10.6 12.0 12.9 22,047 8.7 15.9 23.4 22.2 23.9 19.4 15.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 10.9 12.0 12.8 0323 2.225 (13.6) 0.39 0.44 0.32 0.40 12.1 (26.7) 24.6 5.1 7.0 5.6 7.8 5.7 7.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 n.a. n.a. 19.1 12.9 14.8 14,363 0347 2.4 (42.9) 0.46 0.40 0.34 0.40 (12.0) (15.1) 18.4 6.0 7.0 5.9 6.7 5.7 6.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 n.a. n.a. 13.8 11.0 12.1 7,111 1053 2.55 (38.2) 0.87 0.72 0.38 0.42 (16.8) (47.1) 9.1 3.5 6.7 6.1 7.1 4.5 4.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 n.a. n.a. 23.1 10.9 11.1 2,713 5.8 (25.6) 22.9 5.1 7.0 5.8 7.4 5.6 6.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 18.0 12.1 13.6 24,187 (31.5) (0.3) (27.1) 21.0 4.9 6.9 5.9 7.2 5.3 6.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 18.7 11.6 12.7 13
14 65 (3) 04 6 18 () (%) ( ) (%) / ( ) (%) (%) 03 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 ()() (%) 04 05 06 () 0857 3.4 (23.6) 0.37 0.41 0.39 0.41 9.3 (3.9) 4.9 8.3 8.7 8.3 5.4 5.2 5.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 3.00 (13.3) 19.8 16.9 16.2 597,802 0883 3.15 3.6 0.26 0.29 0.32 0.34 10.4 10.6 5.3 10.8 9.7 9.2 4.0 4.4 4.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.90 (8.6) 25.3 24.2 22.3 129,470 1171 7.65 (2.5) 0.46 0.92 0.92 0.95 101.4 0.1 3.8 8.3 8.3 8.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 8.95 14.5 22.8 19.3 17.4 21,956 2883 1.96 (28.7) 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.15 13.8 12.6 5.9 15.7 13.9 13.1 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.10 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.7 7,831 9.4 (3.4) 5.0 8.7 8.9 8.4 5.1 5.0 5.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 20.7 18.1 17.2 757,058 (12.8) 11.0 (1.7) 5.0 9.1 8.9 8.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 18.7 16.9 15.9 0267 17.95 (9.3) 0.60 1.49 1.66 1.81 149.9 11.6 9.1 12.0 10.8 9.9 6.6 7.4 8.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 20.66 13.1 8.1 8.7 9.2 39,284 0270 1.38 (11.5) 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 9.0 10.6 5.7 6.3 5.7 5.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.06 33.0 12.6 12.3 11.6 7,516 0291 9.05 2.8 0.70 0.75 0.86 0.95 7.2 14.4 10.8 12.1 10.6 9.5 3.3 3.8 4.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 11.09 18.4 11.2 12.0 12.3 19,036 0363 13.8 (22.3) 1.34 1.46 1.33 1.47 8.4 (9.0) 11.1 9.5 10.4 9.4 4.2 3.8 4.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 19.19 28.1 9.2 8.0 8.4 13,087 0392 8.95 (1.6) 0.73 0.83 0.82 0.87 14.2 (1.5) 6.7 10.8 10.9 10.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.87 9.3 6.7 6.3 6.5 5,571 0882 2.55 (30.1) 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.44 10.7 12.6 11.4 7.3 6.5 5.9 3.4 3.8 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.66 30.3 5.6 6.1 6.4 1,754 76.0 9.8 9.4 10.6 9.8 9.0 5.0 5.4 5.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.4 9.8 86,247 (12.0) 40.5 7.7 9.2 9.2 8.8 8.1 4.1 4.3 4.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 8.9 8.9 9.1 0144 9.25 (9.8) 0.70 0.67 0.79 0.90 (3.6) 16.7 14.6 13.7 11.8 10.3 4.6 5.1 5.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.13 16.9 11.0 12.3 13.3 19,796 0598 2.4 (31.4) 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.21 6.1 10.1 7.2 13.8 12.5 11.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 3.25 26.0 12.1 12.3 12.2 10,198 1138 3.85 (33.0) 0.29 0.39 0.46 0.44 33.9 18.0 (4.7) 9.9 8.4 8.8 4.9 6.1 6.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 n.a. n.a. 17.7 18.7 16.2 12,805 1199 9.9 (4.3) 0.56 0.75 0.82 0.88 33.3 9.8 7.3 13.2 12.1 11.2 4.3 4.7 5.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 10.09 1.9 15.0 15.3 15.3 21,271 2866 2.65 n.a. 0.43 0.59 0.50 0.44 36.6 (15.2) (11.0) 4.5 5.3 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 n.a. n.a. 35.5 20.7 16.1 15,980 23.5 2.2 1.4 9.9 9.1 9.1 4.4 4.8 5.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 18.2 15.8 14.7 80,049 (19.6) 24.0 1.9 0.3 12.7 11.2 10.5 4.3 4.8 4.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 18.3 15.9 14.6 0187 1.96 (26.0) 0.22 0.23 0.26 0.29 9.0 10.6 10.8 8.4 7.6 6.8 4.2 4.6 5.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.75 28.8 8.5 8.8 9.2 827 0914 7.6 (24.0) 0.58 0.96 1.10 1.33 64.1 15.1 20.3 7.9 6.9 5.7 3.2 3.6 5.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 10.00 24.0 25.6 23.9 23.8 9,543 0980 7.15 (12.8) 0.31 0.32 0.41 0.46 4.9 26.3 13.1 22.2 17.6 15.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.0 7.54 5.2 14.2 14.9 14.0 4,201 0981 1.64 n.a. (0.05) 0.05 0.12 0.14 n.a. 132.5 17.6 32.9 14.1 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 n.a. n.a. 5.2 8.6 9.2 29,851 2333 7.15 (56.8) 1.42 1.06 1.17 1.32 (25.8) 11.2 12.8 6.8 6.1 5.4 4.4 4.9 5.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 9.10 21.5 17.6 16.9 16.8 3,376 2698 10.55 7.7 0.84 0.85 1.07 1.31 1.2 25.8 22.7 12.4 9.9 8.0 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 11.49 8.2 14.5 15.4 16.5 9,236 (1) 12.4 (1.8) 4.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 4.0 4.1 4.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 17.7 15.9 15.1 1,661,859 (18.6) 19.8 2.1 4.7 12.2 10.8 9.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 14.9 13.9 13.4 (2) 9.0 12.5 6.2 12.5 11.0 10.3 3.2 3.6 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 15.8 15.9 15.3 1,001,081 (9.7) 15.7 13.4 7.3 14.6 12.2 10.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 11.3 11.7 12.0 (1)+(2) 11.5 1.8 4.9 10.1 9.6 9.1 3.7 3.9 4.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 17.0 15.9 15.1 2,662,941 (15.3) 18.5 5.6 5.6 13.1 11.3 10.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 13.6 13.1 12.9
Guotai Junan (HK) (GTJA China Shares Universe)(1) + 2002 2006 02 03 04 05 06 - (%) 37.1 11.5 1.8 4.9 - (%) 40.5 18.5 5.6 5.6 ( ) 16.9 12.0 10.1 9.6 9.1 (%) 2.2 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 ( ) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 (%) 14.1 16.4 17.0 15.9 15.1 : () : 2004 6 183,919 (%) 02 03 04 05 06 58.8 58.4 69.9 69.0 66.1 42.0 28.1 27.3 * * 132.4 156.7 165.4 168.4 179.5 * 18.4 19.8 21.6 24.9 108.6 86.7 68.7 54.7 44.9 34.1 44.0 48.4 52.9 38.2 56.5 54.2 37.7 28.3 18.6 * * * * * 50.1 40.3 23.0 18.0 * 17.5 13.9 14.0 11.5 3.1 * * * * * 49.8 49.2 39.5 44.3 38.1 * 66.8 17.3 21.3 22.5 : : * 15 (%) (%) (%) 02 03 04 05 06 02 03 04 05 06 (1) 18.6 20.5 21.4 21.7 21.5 12.4 13.0 15.4 15.1 14.5 (2) 22.8 24.3 25.2 25.1 25.3 10.0 22.2 23.0 22.8 23.2 (1)+(2) 20.5 21.9 22.8 23.0 22.9 15.2 17.9 18.2 17.9 17.7 29.1 28.5 31.7 29.5 29.4 18.0 18.1 23.2 20.0 19.5 13.0 17.9 14.9 14.4 14.3 9.7 11.8 9.9 9.6 9.6 6.6 7.3 7.8 8.5 9.3 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.7 18.0 11.4 18.0 19.1 18.9 8.5 2.9 9.1 9.7 9.4 43.2 46.7 46.4 51.6 52.9 35.4 41.4 43.6 47.3 48.0 61.0 59.7 59.2 63.9 62.1 47.0 39.7 50.0 49.2 44.4 4.7 6.9 8.2 9.0 8.8 1.6 4.2 5.3 5.8 5.5 22.5 24.8 23.7 23.4 23.3 15.2 16.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 19.9 25.3 32.6 33.2 32.5 12.3 18.2 24.5 23.9 23.3 13.1 14.4 12.5 12.8 14.0 10.9 11.6 10.3 10.4 10.5 12.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.5 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.4 7.0 16.5 11.9 8.7 10.1 5.1 14.7 10.0 7.0 8.2 31.3 29.5 33.4 32.3 32.6 21.6 21.6 23.6 22.4 22.4 19.6 23.1 24.3 22.9 22.8 11.5 17.5 16.8 15.4 15.6 23.0 21.6 24.6 24.0 22.7 32.4 32.6 34.4 35.0 35.0 : :
(GTJA China Shares Universe)(2) 02 03 04 05 06 (1) 32 34 32 32 32 (2) 38 44 44 45 46 (1)+(2) 34 38 36 37 37 22 48 40 42 48 63 84 76 76 76 33 42 38 40 39 16 14 12 12 12 14 10 9 9 9 28 25 24 25 25 34 21 18 18 18 71 68 70 71 72 25 20 17 17 17 41 34 35 41 39 32 35 35 36 35 48 56 59 58 59 66 66 65 66 66 : 16 02 03 04 05 06 (0.11) (0.41) (0.40) 0.17 0.36 (0.25) (0.33) (0.23) (0.28) (0.45) 0.12 (0.03) (0.07) (0.10) 0.09 0.03 0.30 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.30 0.77 0.70 1.24 1.36 (0.08) (0.03) 0.10 0.28 0.43 (0.13) 0.25 0.16 0.37 0.54 (0.04) 0.03 0.06 0.21 0.33 0.09 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.37 0.10 0.15 0.05 0.38 0.40 0.45 (0.07) 0.64 0.60 0.73 0.07 0.14 (0.28) 0.11 0.27 : : 1993 500 % 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 (50) (100) 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Guotai Junan (HK) % 50 40 44 % 50 40 39.2 30 30 25.7 20 21.2 18.6 17.9 20 21.2 20.1 10 0 4.1 1.9 n.a.n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2002/12/31 4.2 2.0 2003/6/20 2003/12/31 2004/6/18 10 0 6.7 5.9 7.4 4.0 4.6 n.a.n.a.n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a. 2002/12/31 2003/6/20 2003/12/31 2004/6/18 (10) (7.3) (8.7) (10) 2002 2006 02 03 04 05 06 (%) 52.9 17.9 2.0 4.2 (%) 50.2 25.7 5.9 7.4 (%) 13.1 (3.9) (5.6) (%) 21.2 3.6 (0.1) 18.0 12.0 9.6 9.0 8.6 (%) 1.9 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 (%) 11.7 14.5 16.7 15.5 14.6 17 : Bloomberg 2004 6 183,919 03 04 05 06 3,000 9.2 7.3 6.9 6.6 3,300 10.1 8.0 7.6 7.3 3,500 10.7 8.5 8.1 7.7 4,000 12.3 9.8 9.2 8.8 4,500 13.8 11.0 10.4 9.9 5,000 15.3 12.2 11.5 11.0 5,500 16.8 13.4 12.7 12.1 6,000 18.4 14.6 13.8 13.2 7,000 21.4 17.1 16.1 15.4 7,500 23.0 18.3 17.3 16.5 : Bloomberg 2004 6 183,919
18 6 18 % % % H (%) 03 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 % 0325 2.175 (28.1) 0.18 0.26 0.29 0.27 45.1 14.3 (9.6) 8.5 7.4 8.2 3.1 3.6 3.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 14.5 14.8 12.2 0.7 2,202 0338 2.2 (36.2) 0.18 0.32 0.38 0.36 76.3 18.0 (6.1) 6.8 5.8 6.1 5.9 7.1 6.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 14.5 14.2 11.1 1.7 5,126 0386 2.675 (23.0) 0.23 0.31 0.32 0.33 31.0 3.8 2.9 8.7 8.4 8.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 15.9 14.8 13.9 14.4 44,878 0857 3.4 (23.6) 0.37 0.41 0.39 0.41 9.3 (3.9) 4.9 8.3 8.7 8.3 5.4 5.2 5.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 19.8 16.9 16.2 19.2 59,780 1033 1.2 (38.8) 0.06 0.10 0.11 0.13 61.5 10.5 17.2 12.1 11.0 9.4 3.0 3.5 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.7 4.0 3.1 0.5 1,680 1128 6.6 (2.9) 0.41 0.62 0.70 0.77 51.4 14.1 9.6 10.7 9.4 8.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 16.8 17.1 16.7 1.5 4,780 1171 7.65 (2.5) 0.46 0.92 0.92 0.95 101.4 0.1 3.8 8.3 8.3 8.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 22.8 19.3 17.4 2.5 7,803 2883 1.96 (28.7) 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.15 13.8 12.6 5.9 15.7 13.9 13.1 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 6.9 7.2 7.7 1.0 3,007 16.9 (1.0) 4.1 8.6 8.5 8.2 4.6 4.6 4.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 17.7 15.8 14.8 41.6 129,256 2328 2.775 (20.1) 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.19 12.6 9.9 (4.0) 15.3 13.9 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 11.8 11.5 9.9 3.1 9,590 2628 4.2 (33.9) 0.21 0.25 0.29 0.33 18.8 19.6 11.8 17.1 14.3 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 10.0 10.7 10.7 10.1 31,253 18.2 18.7 10.4 16.7 14.2 13.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 10.4 10.9 10.5 13.1 40,843 0902 6.45 (1.4) 0.43 0.48 0.57 0.61 13.0 17.5 8.2 13.4 11.4 10.5 4.1 4.8 5.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 17.3 18.5 18.2 6.3 19,707 0991 5.85 5.4 0.33 0.40 0.43 0.48 21.1 7.0 11.0 14.6 13.6 12.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 13.4 13.3 13.7 2.7 8,370 1071 2.4 (26.2) 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.25 9.5 14.6 7.5 11.9 10.4 9.6 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 11.8 12.3 12.1 1.1 3,434 14.0 16.0 8.5 13.5 11.8 10.8 3.7 4.2 4.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 15.7 16.5 16.4 10.1 31,511 0323 2.225 (13.6) 0.39 0.44 0.32 0.40 12.1 (26.7) 24.6 5.1 7.0 5.6 7.8 5.7 7.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 19.1 12.9 14.8 1.2 3,856 0347 2.4 (42.9) 0.46 0.40 0.34 0.40 (12.0) (15.1) 18.4 6.0 7.0 5.9 6.7 5.7 6.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 13.8 11.0 12.1 0.7 2,136 0358 2.9 (32.2) 0.18 0.44 0.48 0.49 144.7 9.5 1.9 6.6 6.0 5.9 7.5 8.3 8.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 22.0 21.0 19.2 1.1 3,354 0914 7.6 (24.0) 0.58 0.96 1.10 1.33 64.1 15.1 20.3 7.9 6.9 5.7 3.2 3.6 5.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 25.6 23.9 23.8 1.1 3,292 2600 3.625 (38.6) 0.32 0.64 0.77 0.81 100.9 19.8 5.3 5.7 4.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 6.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 32.0 28.5 24.7 3.9 11,977 2899 2.4 (22.0) 0.16 0.17 0.21 0.23 11.7 22.4 9.7 13.8 11.3 10.3 3.6 4.4 4.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 25.3 25.8 24.5 0.6 1,924 81.3 14.1 7.1 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 26.1 23.1 21.4 8.5 26,538 0177 3.225 (21.8) 0.19 0.21 0.16 0.19 9.1 (22.1) 17.4 15.7 20.1 17.2 4.5 3.7 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 8.3 6.3 7.3 1.3 3,941 0525 2.1 (4.5) 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.20 25.8 13.2 23.4 14.7 13.0 10.5 4.9 5.8 5.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 6.5 7.4 7.7 1.0 3,006 0548 2.325 (16.2) 0.39 0.16 0.19 0.22 (58.0) 15.6 14.7 14.2 12.3 10.7 4.9 6.1 6.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 6.2 7.1 7.9 0.6 1,738 0576 4.875 (10.6) 0.22 0.27 0.31 0.34 25.0 14.7 8.5 17.8 15.5 14.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 12.1 13.1 13.4 2.3 6,990 0995 2.8 (5.9) 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.32 16.6 18.6 15.6 12.1 10.2 8.8 3.4 3.7 4.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 8.8 9.8 10.6 0.4 1,380 11.5 7.0 12.5 15.7 14.8 12.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 9.4 9.7 10.2 5.5 17,055 0598 2.4 (31.4) 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.21 6.1 10.1 7.2 13.8 12.5 11.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 12.1 12.3 12.2 1.4 4,290 1138 3.85 (33.0) 0.29 0.39 0.46 0.44 33.9 18.0 (4.7) 9.9 8.4 8.8 4.9 6.1 6.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 17.7 18.7 16.2 1.6 4,990 22.7 15.2 (0.7) 11.4 9.9 9.9 4.0 4.8 4.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 15.1 15.7 14.4 3.0 9,279 0670 1.49 12.9 (0.18) 0.07 0.11 0.09 n.a. 50.3 (16.4) 20.1 13.4 16.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 5.9 8.4 6.7 0.8 2,335 0694 2.15 (18.9) 0.10 0.16 0.18 0.19 64.3 13.0 8.7 13.6 12.0 11.1 3.7 4.2 4.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 8.6 9.2 9.5 0.7 2,068 0696 4.8 (42.5) 0.25 0.36 0.40 0.35 41.5 11.5 (12.9) 13.3 11.9 13.7 2.9 3.2 3.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 11.5 11.8 11.1 0.5 1,492 1055 2.775 (16.5) (0.09) 0.14 0.20 0.19 n.a. 37.6 (5.7) 19.4 14.1 15.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 5.4 7.0 6.2 1.0 3,258 n.a. 30.9 (6.1) 16.7 13.0 13.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.2 8.6 7.9 2.9 9,153 0168 6.65 (26.9) 0.23 0.26 0.34 0.43 14.8 30.2 28.2 25.6 19.7 15.3 2.0 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 6.7 8.6 8.6 0.9 2,706 0728 2.45 (23.4) 0.31 0.35 0.36 0.35 13.4 1.7 (0.2) 7.0 6.9 6.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 20.8 18.0 15.8 10.9 34,000 1122 0.9 (41.2) 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.09 35.0 8.6 11.4 11.8 10.8 9.7 5.3 5.8 5.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 3.0 2.5 0.4 1,115 1211 21.95 7.3 1.51 1.82 2.18 2.56 20.7 19.9 17.1 12.0 10.0 8.6 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.1 28.1 28.0 25.9 1.1 3,282 2333 7.15 (56.8) 1.42 1.06 1.17 1.32 (25.8) 11.2 12.8 6.8 6.1 5.4 4.4 4.9 5.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 17.6 16.9 16.8 0.3 937 2357 0.8 (51.2) 0.13 0.10 0.13 n.a. (20.9) 28.0 n.a. 8.0 6.3 n.a. 4.4 4.9 n.a. 1.1 1.0 n.a. 11.2 13.1 n.a. 0.4 1,344 2698 10.55 7.7 0.84 0.85 1.07 1.31 1.2 25.8 22.7 12.4 9.9 8.0 1.6 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 14.5 15.4 16.5 1.2 3,636 3,919 (21.9) 17.9 2.0 4.2 9.6 9.0 8.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 16.7 15.5 14.6 100.0 310,656 25.7 5.9 7.4 12.0 10.6 10.0 3.6 4.0 4.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 14.1 13.8 13.3 13.1 (3.9) (5.6) 9.9 9.6 9.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 21.2 3.6 (0.1) 11.7 10.2 9.7 3.7 4.1 4.0 Bloomberg
Guotai Junan (HK) 6 18 () (%) ( ) (%) (%) (%) 03 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 04 05 06 (%) () 0005 114.5 (6.5) 6.54 7.62 8.51 9.22 16.5 11.7 8.3 15.0 13.5 12.4 4.5 5.0 5.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 13.8 14.9 15.5 34.8 1,273,609 0011 98.5 (3.4) 4.99 5.31 5.85 6.24 6.4 10.2 6.7 18.6 16.8 15.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 25.8 27.3 28.3 5.1 188,316 0023 22.15 (7.1) 1.32 1.55 1.74 1.91 17.6 12.1 10.0 14.3 12.7 11.6 4.5 5.2 5.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 11.4 12.3 13.0 0.9 32,746 2388 12.55 (14.0) 0.75 0.87 0.97 1.03 15.1 11.3 6.8 14.5 13.0 12.2 4.8 5.3 5.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 14.9 15.7 16.1 3.6 132,688 24,462 (6.9) 16.3 11.6 8.3 15.3 13.7 12.7 4.6 5.1 5.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 15.3 16.4 17.0 44.4 1,627,360 0002 41.9 13.2 3.19 3.33 3.50 3.62 4.3 5.2 3.5 12.6 12.0 11.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 18.9 18.6 17.6 2.8 100,905 0003 12.6 6.3 0.54 0.58 0.76 0.91 7.6 30.9 20.0 21.7 16.6 13.8 2.9 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.1 18.0 23.2 24.2 1.9 71,110 0006 32.9 7.2 2.84 3.14 3.26 3.43 10.5 3.9 5.3 10.5 10.1 9.6 5.3 5.6 5.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 17.0 16.5 16.2 1.9 70,217 27,207 9.4 6.6 8.7 7.1 13.5 12.3 11.4 4.4 4.9 5.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 18.1 19.4 19.1 6.6 242,233 0001 54.75 (11.3) 4.24 3.57 3.56 3.51 (15.8) (0.3) (1.3) 15.3 15.4 15.6 3.1 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 4.3 4.7 4.5 3.5 126,810 0012 31.1 (9.3) 1.41 1.81 2.13 2.17 28.2 17.9 1.7 17.2 14.6 14.4 2.7 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.0 6.6 6.5 1.5 56,433 0016 61.75 (3.9) 2.91 3.59 4.32 4.55 23.1 20.4 5.4 17.2 14.3 13.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 6.1 7.5 7.6 4.0 148,257 0020 9.2 (1.6) 0.85 1.00 1.03 1.07 17.3 2.4 4.2 9.2 9.0 8.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 8.7 6.4 7.8 0.5 18,693 0097 9.05 1.1 0.62 0.64 0.72 0.77 3.0 12.3 7.0 14.2 12.6 11.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 8.6 9.0 8.7 0.7 25,497 0101 9.85 (1.0) 0.55 0.88 1.03 1.06 59.3 17.6 2.7 11.3 9.6 9.3 4.6 5.2 5.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 8.3 11.6 12.1 0.9 32,192 13,816 (6.5) 4.9 11.6 2.7 15.2 13.6 13.3 2.9 3.0 3.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 5.8 6.9 6.9 11.1 407,882 0004 21.05 (2.1) 1.24 1.36 1.44 1.52 9.6 5.9 5.6 15.5 14.6 13.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 6.5 6.2 5.8 1.4 51,519 0008 5.35 5.9 (1.23) 0.39 0.44 0.54 n.a. 13.6 20.7 13.7 12.0 10.0 0.0 1.3 3.3 n.a. n.a. 31.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8 28,723 0013 50.25 (12.2) 3.37 3.48 1.54 2.72 3.3 (55.7) 76.4 14.4 32.6 18.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 6.6 2.2 4.6 5.8 214,234 0019 A 48.3 0.8 3.21 4.09 4.33 4.82 27.3 5.7 11.4 11.8 11.2 10.0 3.2 3.5 4.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 8.7 8.7 9.1 1.2 44,937 0066 11.45 11.7 0.85 0.70 0.74 0.68 (17.4) 5.8 (8.1) 16.3 15.4 16.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.9 6.2 5.8 1.7 60,624 0179 7.75 (21.7) 0.27 0.33 0.40 0.45 22.7 22.4 14.2 23.8 19.5 17.1 1.7 2.0 2.3 5.0 4.6 4.0 15.9 19.9 21.7 0.8 28,472 0267 17.95 (9.3) 0.60 1.31 1.53 1.78 117.8 17.4 15.7 13.7 11.7 10.1 5.5 5.5 6.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 7.4 8.5 10.8 1.1 39,312 0291 9.05 2.8 0.70 0.72 0.79 0.84 3.4 9.3 6.3 12.5 11.4 10.8 2.7 3.0 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 10.2 10.8 11.3 0.5 19,036 0293 14 (5.1) 0.39 1.38 1.60 1.75 253.8 15.6 9.5 10.1 8.8 8.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 13.9 14.5 14.9 1.3 47,146 0330 34.9 35.0 1.24 1.67 2.04 2.12 33.9 22.3 4.0 20.9 17.1 16.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 8.1 6.4 5.4 37.5 37.3 36.4 1.1 41,650 0363 13.8 (22.3) 1.34 1.26 1.27 1.43 (5.7) 0.7 12.6 10.9 10.8 9.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 8.9 7.7 0.0 0.4 13,087 0494 11.15 (16.2) 0.42 0.55 0.66 0.77 28.8 20.7 17.5 20.5 16.9 14.4 3.9 4.8 5.7 7.1 6.4 5.8 36.5 41.0 43.5 0.9 32,459 0511 32 (18.4) 1.01 1.44 1.76 2.11 42.4 22.5 19.6 22.3 18.2 15.2 3.1 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.1 18.4 21.0 23.0 0.4 14,016 0551 18.85 (11.7) 1.56 1.67 1.80 2.02 6.7 7.9 12.6 11.3 10.5 9.3 4.1 4.5 5.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 19.1 18.2 19.2 0.8 30,532 0762 5.75 (20.7) 0.32 0.49 0.56 0.61 54.6 14.1 8.9 11.7 10.3 9.4 2.4 2.9 3.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 9.1 9.9 10.2 2.0 72,230 0883 3.15 3.6 0.26 0.28 0.30 0.30 4.3 7.9 1.0 11.4 10.6 10.5 3.6 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 23.7 21.2 19.3 3.5 129,373 0941 22.4 (6.1) 1.71 1.87 1.99 2.07 9.5 6.6 3.7 12.0 11.2 10.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 18.1 17.2 16.0 12.0 440,653 0992 2.025 (39.1) 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 9.1 9.9 8.1 13.3 12.1 11.2 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 21.6 21.8 21.1 0.4 15,148 1038 18.05 3.7 1.49 1.62 1.73 1.80 8.8 6.5 4.1 11.1 10.5 10.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 11.4 11.4 11.3 1.1 40,688 1199 9.9 (4.3) 0.56 0.70 0.77 0.90 25.2 10.1 15.8 14.1 12.8 11.1 3.8 4.2 4.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 13.4 13.8 14.8 0.6 21,341 4,933 (6.4) 11.0 (1.6) 8.5 13.0 13.0 11.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 14.9 13.9 13.9 37.8 1,385,181 11,856 (5.7) 15.0 9.4 8.2 14.2 13.3 12.3 3.8 4.1 4.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 14.2 14.6 14.8 100.0 3,662,656 18.3 6.6 8.4 14.6 13.6 12.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 2.2 2.0 2.7 14.2 14.7 14.9 Bloomberg 19
2002 2006 02 03 04 05 06 (%) 19.9 15.0 9.4 8.2 (%) 11.4 18.3 6.6 8.4 18.7 16.8 14.2 13.3 12.3 (%) 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 (%) 14.2 13.2 14.2 14.6 14.8 : Bloomberg 2004 6 1811,856 03 04 05 06 8,000 11.3 9.6 9.0 8.3 9,000 12.8 10.8 10.1 9.3 10,000 14.2 12.0 11.2 10.4 11,000 15.6 13.2 12.4 11.4 12,000 17.0 14.4 13.5 12.4 14,000 19.8 16.8 15.7 14.5 15,000 21.3 18.0 16.9 15.6 16,000 22.7 19.2 18.0 16.6 18,000 25.5 21.6 20.2 18.7 : Bloomberg 2004 6 1811,856 20 2004 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500
Guotai Junan (HK) 6 18 04 04 04 ( ) 03 03 03 03 (%) (%) (%) (%) 03 04 (%) 11,856 (5.7) (35.6) (15.7) 8.6 16.8 14.2 3.5 1.7 8.5 2.9 3,919 (21.9) (58.5) (28.0) 11.9 12.0 9.6 3.0 1.6 6.0 0.3 1,283 (10.1) (55.0) (22.8) 14.2 12.8 11.6 2.3 1.9 6.1 2.2 A 1,500 (4.4) (35.9) (19.8) 1.2 30.4 22.4 1.4 2.9 13.8 1.8 B 83 (21.2) (65.8) (32.7) 0.6 117.3 19.1 1.6 1.7 12.6 0.9 A 381 (3.1) (46.0) (22.5) 1.0 41.2 27.6 1.2 2.9 19.7 1.7 B 235 (13.5) (47.2) (25.7) 0.9 16.0 13.3 2.1 2.1 11.4 1.0 10,416 (0.4) (11.4) (3.1) 5.7 19.7 16.6 2.0 3.5 12.4 1.3 500 1,135 2.1 (26.9) (2.4) 5.5 21.1 17.5 1.6 3.0 10.3 1.5 1,987 (0.8) (61.3) (7.8) 6.5 61.1 31.8 0.4 3.5 17.1 2.4 100 4,506 0.6 (35.2) (2.1) 5.0 25.2 18.6 3.7 2.2 9.3 1.2 DAX 4,000 0.9 (50.8) (4.2) 8.3 26.9 15.2 2.1 1.5 6.3 0.6 CAC40 3,741 5.1 (46.1) (2.4) 7.2 18.9 15.3 2.3 2.2 9.2 0.8 225 11,382 6.6 (70.8) (6.7) 10.5 40.2 32.5 0.9 2.0 n.a. 1.2 742 (8.5) (35.2) (21.1) 3.5 21.5 8.4 2.5 0.9 2.0 0.4 5,569 (5.5) (56.1) (21.9) 2.2 19.5 13.1 2.2 1.7 9.9 1.3 1,533 6.3 (55.5) (5.4) 10.7 16.0 11.6 2.1 1.3 6.4 0.9 623 (19.4) (65.2) (22.4) 8.0 13.1 10.8 3.1 2.0 5.9 1.3 822 3.5 (38.3) (10.6) 6.8 15.3 14.6 3.5 1.7 7.5 1.8 1,792 1.5 (30.6) (6.3) 6.0 17.1 13.4 3.6 1.6 8.3 1.9 3,523 6.6 (0.1) (0.1) 7.9 26.8 17.0 3.6 2.3 12.5 1.5 50 2,640 7.7 (0.8) (0.8) 9.3 45.4 16.7 5.7 2.4 10.2 1.8 BSE30 4,770 (18.3) (23.7) (23.7) 12.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. : Bloomberg 21
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 22 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 % 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0
Guotai Junan (HK) % 35,000 12 % 30,000 12 30,000 25,000 10 10 25,000 20,000 8 8 20,000 15,000 6 6 15,000 4 4 10,000 10,000 2 5,000 2 5,000 0 0 0 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 % 30,000 12 % 16,000 12 14,000 10 25,000 10 12,000 8 20,000 8 10,000 8,000 6 15,000 6 6,000 4 10,000 4 4,000 2 5,000 2 2,000 0 0 0 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 23
24 (1) % 8 12 % 12 12 7 10 10 10 6 8 5 8 8 4 6 6 6 3 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 % 5 12 % 6 12 10 4 5 10 8 3 4 8 6 6 3 2 4 4 2 1 2 2 1 0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Guotai Junan (HK) (2) % 100 12 % 70 12 10 80 60 10 8 60 50 8 40 6 6 30 40 4 4 20 20 2 2 10 0 0 0 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 97 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 % 4 12 % 12 12 10 10 10 3 8 8 8 6 6 2 6 4 4 4 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 25
26 2004 % 140 % 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 % 140 120 100 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 04 1 2 % 140 120 80 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 60 40 100 20 80 0 3 4 5 6 3 4 5 6 60 40 20 0 04 1 2 10
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 27 % 40 % 40 30 20 10 0 30 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 % 40 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) 3 4 5 6 (50) 04 1 2 % 40 30 20 10 0 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (10) (40) (50) 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 (20) (30) (40) (50) 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 10
28 A 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 * % (11.2) 9.5 (18.1) 0.7 11.6 (18.0) (12.6) 46.8 26.4 21.3 38.5 40.3 43.3 48.0 61.8 47.9 43.0 31.3 22.4 % 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 n.a. 2.5 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.9 5.3 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.5 % 15.1 10.7 11.6 9.0 8.8 9.5 8.2 7.4 10.2 9.4 2,865 6,075 9,953 11,283 15,414 28,201 29,442 27,341 32,292 31,369 181 283 368 421 467 555 633 705 770 816 B 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 * % (5.9) (8.7) (38.7) (15.8) 7.9 (20.6) n.a. n.a. 502.9 10.7 15.3 12.6 10.0 15.6 33.1 75.7 n.a. 148.1 19.1 % 3.0 1.7 1.5 2.9 2.1 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 n.a. 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.8 1.8 3.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 % 11.9 11.1 10.3 6.0 5.3 5.5 4.5 (1.0) 1.5 5.7 295 511 571 307 450 1,075 2,059 1,379 1,290 1,022 34 41 49 51 53 54 54 54 54 54 A 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 * % (4.7) 2.9 (28.3) 23.5 (10.6) (67.9) 73.1 52.0 43.2 14.3 42.8 43.9 48.8 42.4 70.7 153.6 70.3 42.5 27.6 % 2.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 n.a. 1.6 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.9 5.5 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.8 % 11.6 11.7 12.1 8.1 9.9 8.5 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.3 933 4,419 8,522 9,176 12,407 21,924 16,238 13,434 13,046 12,878 121 217 337 390 442 491 492 493 493 494 B 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 * % (14.0) (21.4) (83.0) 479.9 (1.1) n.a. n.a. 108.7 10.3 7.5 19.4 14.7 40.9 10.5 15.5 n.a. 28.1 18.2 13.3 % 5.1 1.5 3.2 5.5 2.6 2.7 1.5 2.0 1.9 n.a. 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 % 14.4 12.7 9.9 1.7 10.0 10.1 (3.8) 7.2 14.4 15.4 150 734 594 323 491 840 1,594 1,087 1,576 1,384 20 41 49 52 52 57 57 57 57 57 : * 6 18
Guotai Junan (HK) 29 HA HA 2002 12 31 2003 6 20 2003 12 31 2004 6 18 73%(4.6 ) 69%(3.5 ) 48%(2.2 ) 58%(2.9 ) 42% 88% 33% 84% -5% 75% 20% 84% 1,990 2,717 5,020 3,919 A 1,419 1,602 1,569 1,500 HA 6 18 HA (%) A /H H A H A 2004/6/18 2004/6/18 0042 000585 0.64 3.49 80.6 5.1 0168 600600 6.65 8.78 19.7 1.2 0177 600377 3.225 6.55 47.8 1.9 0187 600860 1.96 5.7 63.6 2.7 0300 600806 1.07 5.33 78.7 4.7 0317 600685 1.13 5.56 78.5 4.6 0323 600808 2.225 4.46 47.1 1.9 0338 600688 2.2 5.84 60.1 2.5 0347 000898 2.4 4.15 38.7 1.6 0350 000666 1.75 5.4 65.6 2.9 0358 600362 2.9 7.24 57.5 2.4 0368 000618 1.06 4.71 76.1 4.2 0386 600028 2.675 4.64 38.9 1.6 0548 600548 2.325 5.77 57.3 2.3 0553 600775 1.43 7.61 80.1 5.0 0670 600115 1.49 4.17 62.1 2.6 0719 000756 1.28 5.7 76.2 4.2 0874 600332 1.53 6.39 74.6 3.9 0902 600011 6.45 9.92 31.1 1.5 0914 600585 7.6 11.67 31.0 1.4 0921 000921 2.625 6.16 54.8 2.2 0995 600012 2.8 5.15 42.4 1.7 1033 600871 1.2 4.43 71.3 3.5 1055 600029 2.775 4.69 37.3 1.6 1065 600874 2.225 7.19 67.2 3.0 1072 600875 2.375 11.25 77.6 4.5 1108 600876 0.83 5.43 83.8 6.2 1138 600026 3.85 8.68 53.0 2.1 1171 600188 7.65 14 42.1 1.7 29 58.4 2.9
30 1999 2004 2002 2004 % % 70 50 2004 2003 2002 60 40 50 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 % 200 7.85 400 0 2004 2003 2003 7.80 300 (200) 200 7.75 (400) 100 7.70 (600) 0 (800) 7.65 03 8 9 10 11 12 04 1 2 3 4 5 6 (100)
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 2004 % % 5 20 0 15 (5) 10 (10) 5 (15) 0 (20) (5) (25) (10) (30) (15) (35) (20) (40) (25) 1993 1993 60,000 40,000 35,000 50,000 30,000 40,000 25,000 30,000 20,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04* 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04* *04 5 31 *04 5 31 31
32 Brent 12,000 45 10,000 1.5 10,000 35 8,000 1.2 8,000 6,000 25 6,000 4,000 0.9 15 4,000 Brent 2,000 5 2,000 0.6 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 CRB CRB 550 12,000 300 500 10,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 450 250 8,000 400 14,000 12,000 10,000 350 6,000 200 300 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 CRB 250 2,000 150 2,000 200 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 04 83
Guotai Junan (HK) (Federal fund rate) 12 1990 1990 8.25%1% 1958 90 % 10 8 6 4 2 33 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 : 6 30 0.25 1% 1.25% 2001 2001 2003 13 2000 6.5%6 1%5.5 90 5.25 1990200190
90 1990 1992 1 1 3 (1990/6/13) (1990/7/13) (1992/9/4) (1992/10/5) (1993/11/4) (1994/2/4) 8.25% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3.25% 1% 0% 4% 4.5% 5.5% 4.1% 5.2% 5.5% 7.6% 7.3% 6.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.8% 3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 3.2% 3.6% 1.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 2 8.27% 8.13% 3.89% 3.68% 4.13% 4.42% 10 8.4% 8.45% 6.4% 6.24% 5.67% 5.94% 2,930 2,980 3,282 3,179 3,625 3,871 353.3 364 341.25 350.5 372 386.6 154.71 148.15 122.95 119.82 108.13 109.25 1.2164 1.26 1.4442 1.3638 1.1317 1.1062 : 1994 1995 1 1 2 (1994/1/4) (1994/2/4) (1995/2/1) (1995/3/1) (1995/5/5) (1995/7/6) 34 3% 3.25% 6% 6% 6% 5.75% 4.1% 4.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 3.3% 6.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2 4.29% 4.42% 7.33% 6.81% 6.16% 5.56% 10 5.88% 5.94% 7.66% 7.23% 6.69% 6.05% 3,784 3,871 3,848 3,995 4,343 4,664 393.35 386.6 375.9 374.7 390.8 384.3 112.62 109.25 99.19 96.7 83.95 84.95 1.1172 1.1062 1.243 1.273 1.3305 1.3377 : 1990 4.7% 1991 2% 19901 5.2% 5 4.4% 1 5.9% 5 3.1% 1990 6 13 0.25 18 5.25 2.5%-3.3% 1994 2 7 3 2.5%-3.1% 19956%19952000 6 4.75% 2000 6.5% 199619992.7%-7.3% 2000 2001
Guotai Junan (HK) 199019928.25%3% 24.2410 2.05199419952 2 14 20002001 90 95 959994 3,83499 11,49724.6% 2001 1 2003 (2000/12/1) (2001/1/3) (2003/6/25) (2003/12/31) (2004/6/30) 6.5% 6% 1% 1% 1.25% 2.1% -0.2% 3.1% 4.1% 3.9%* 3.9% 4.2% 6.3% 5.7% 5.6% 3.4% 3.7% 2.1% 1.8% 3.0%** 3.8% 4.8% 2.8% 3.9% 4.9%** 2 5.62% 4.92% 1.3% 1.84% 2.7% 10 5.52% 5.14% 3.38% 4.27% 4.6% 10,374 10,946 9,012 10,454 10,435 269.15 268.4 347.15 414.8 394 111.25 113.6 117.95 107.31 108.86 0.8784 0.9281 1.1534 1.2578 1.2185 35 : *2004 **2004 5 (90 92 ) (94 95 ) (01 03 ) 5.25 3 5.5 (+4.0 ) (-3.0 ) (+3.3 ) (+2.1 ) (-1.2 ) (+2.1 ) (-1.8 ) (+0.4 ) (-1.6 ) (-1.8 ) (+1.6 ) (-2.0 ) 2 (-4.24 ) (+2.91 ) (-3.62 ) 10 (-2.05 ) (+1.72 ) (-1.76 ) (+10.1%) (-0.6%) (-17.7%) (-6.3%) (-2.8%) (+29.3%)
14,000 % 10 12,000 10,000 8,000 8 6 4 6,000 2 4,000 0 2,000 (2) 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 (4) 36
Guotai Junan (HK) 38 60 80 104 120 134 153 184 203 218 237 37 262 286 289 309 323 329 354 Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Rating : 6 18 Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Relative Performance Buy >15% Accumulate 5% 15% Neutral (5%) 5% Reduce (5%) (15%) Sell <(15%)
Zhang Wenxian 2004 2004 6 18 2.6% 4.1% 5.4% 26.2% 9.0% 5.7% 21.9% 38 2003 2004 1 4 15.8% 15.5% 20% 24 182004 1,512 113 8.8% 2004 3,700 2004 1,700 50053 14.7 2,0003,0001,000 2,050 2006 GDP 20 15 10 5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004F 2005F 2006F
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 3 60 30 20 10 2004 24 810108 200 39 2004 6 4 2003 2.2
2.3%-15.8% 1%-42.3% 2004 2.1% 1.6% 40 2006 2004-2005 1%-6.6% 2003 2004-2006 2004 1%2004-20052.8% 4.7% 20041% 2004-2005 3.7% 6.6% 2004-20051% 1.5% 20041% * 836 902 991 1071 n.a. 04 (RMB m) 1,086 6,148 2,194 1,126 n.a. 05 (RMB m) 1,576 7,224 2,349 1,291 n.a. 04 (%) (3.4) (1.0) (3.0) (3.7) (2.8) 05 (%) (4.9) (1.5) (5.8) (6.6) (4.7) *
Guotai Junan (HK) EPS15.5% P/BV 1.72004 13.7 3.5% 2006 DCF WACC 2003-2005 63% EPS25.7% P/BV 1.5 12 4.90 24.1% 03 04 05 04 ROE 04 04 04 (HK$) (X) (X) (X) (%) (%) (HK$) (%) * 0836 3.950 19.4 13.9 9.5 11.4 77.4 0.071 1.8 0902 6.450 15.2 13.4 11.4 17.3 39.5 0.280 4.1 0991 5.850 17.7 14.6 13.6 13.4 60.1 0.212 3.4 1071 2.400 13.0 11.9 10.3 11.8 102.6 0.054 2.1 16.0 13.6 11.6 15.3 54.2 0.221 3.5 41 2004 6 18 *
0836 HK$3.950 1-433.6% 12 4.90 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2002A 0 28 0.010 395.0 0 0 n.a. 2003F 491 589 0.204 1,940 19.4 0 0 13.0 2004F 2,550 1,086 0.285 39.7 13.9 0.071 1.8 11.4 2005F 5,013 1,576 0.414 45.3 9.5 0.103 2.6 14.8 2006F 5,733 1,734 0.455 9.9 8.7 0.114 2.9 14.4 42 Shares in issue (m) 3,808.0 Major shareholder 72.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 15,041.6 Free float (%) 27.8 3 Average vol. ( 000) 10,538.0 04 04 Net gearing (%) 77.4 04 04 P/B (x) 1.5 04 04 NBV per share (HK$) 2.6 52 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.200/2.750 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 16.2/(4.2)/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 9.1/3.3/n.a. 2004 1-433.6% 2004 4 100% 2,339,856 2,046,830 293,026 14.32%100% 9,174,078 6,869,3232,304,755 33.55% 4 335.8% 2004 1-4 % 1-4 2003 % 35 1,094,016 1,109,804 (1.42) 25 1,120,920 997,880 12.33 40 1,507,846 1,352,757 11.46 C 30 4,243,370 3,408,882 24.48 60 1,165,620 n.a. 51 42,306 n.a. 9,174,078 6,869,323 33.55 Zhang Wenxian
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 1-4 25% 24.7% 20% 15% 16.4% 15.8% 15.2% 14.8% 13.4% 10% 5% 0% 2002-2005 63% 2005 7,950MW 4,438MW 02-05 36% 63% 63% 37% 43 9,000 8,000 7,950 7,000 6,615 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,180 4,380 3,157 4,438 (MW) (MW) 2,000 1,000 0 1,545 1,029 600 150 2001 2002 2003F 2004F 2005F 55 C 2003 80%-90% 2004 1-2 5%2-3%2004 8% 5%
2003 2004 6 4 1.9%-3.7% 2.3%-10% 5.9%-42.3% 2004 1.6% 2004 6 15 (MW) (RMB/MWH) (RMB/MWH) (h) (RMB/MWH) (RMB/MWH) (h) 900 372.00 240.00 4,800 365.00 280.00 5,500 600 435.22 230.49 5,000 419.00 328.00 5,500 600 352.00 185.00 5,375 344.00 196.00 5,500 200 n.a. n.a. n.a. 305.00 288.00 5,500 300 n.a. n.a. n.a. 305.00 260.00 5,500 100 n.a. n.a. n.a. 290.00 260.00 5,500 600 n.a. n.a. n.a. 420.36 260.00 4,500 44 2006 2003 23.602004-20068427 17 2004-2006 77.4% 76.5% 69.9%2004 1%2004-20052.8% 4.7% 2004-2005 3.4% 4% 2004 2005 84.4% 45.1% 2004 2005 34% 31% 20042003 1.6% 2005 8%1.4% 2.1% 2004 2005 10.86 15.76 84.4% 45.1%0.2850.41439.7% 45.3% 1% 2004 20051,400 2,700 2004 2005 1.3% 1.7% 2003 2004 19.413.90 1.8% P/B 1.7 1.5 2003-2005 EPS42.5% PEG 0.46 DCF 4.90124.90 24.1%20042005 17.211.8
Guotai Junan (HK) 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 0 491 2,550 5,031 5,767 0 0 0 0 0 0 (219) (949) (1,914) (2,208) 0 (2) (77) (151) (173) (1) (45) (273) (669) (847) (25) (103) (128) (377) (432) (26) (369) (1,426) (3,111) (3,661) 1 8 8 8 8 (25) 130 1,132 1,928 2,113 0 (34) (156) (221) (287) 58 734 793 832 874 0 93 113 131 151 (1) (28) (28) (28) (28) 0 (24) 0 0 0 32 870 1,854 2,642 2,823 (7) (164) (436) (621) (663) 25 706 1,418 2,021 2,160 3 (117) (332) (445) (426) 28 589 1,086 1,576 1,734 0 0 272 394 433 (HK$) 0.010 0.204 0.285 0.414 0.455 (HK$) 0.285 0.414 0.455 (HK$) 0.071 0.103 0.114 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 32 870 1,854 2,642 2,823 1 39 273 669 847 0 34 156 221 287 (58) (734) (793) (832) (874) 0 (93) (113) (131) (151) 0 (10) (42) (51) (15) (4) (306) (498) (788) (234) 7 97 261 (16) 164 4 67 0 0 0 (18) (36) 1,098 1,715 2,848 (1,429) (3,656) (6,360) (1,730) (2,030) 0 (109) (840) (170) (170) 0 550 0 0 0 (3,010) 488 148 155 163 (4,439) (2,727) (7,052) (1,745) (2,037) 0 2,855 0 0 0 (27) (124) (561) (795) (1,033) 5,091 4,791 9,713 5,714 5,268 (556) (1,214) (2,993) (3,554) (3,908) 23 53 0 0 0 4,531 6,361 6,159 1,365 327 74 3,598 205 1,336 1,138 28 102 3,696 3,901 5,237 0 (4) 0 0 0 102 3,696 3,901 5,237 6,374 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 1,921 6,138 11,797 13,842 15,728 3,588 3,739 5,931 5,582 5,253 0 992 1,002 1,082 1,169 64 58 55 52 50 6 6 6 6 6 5,579 10,933 18,791 20,564 22,206 0 10 52 102 117 5 312 810 1,598 1,832 44 4 21 41 47 102 3,735 3,901 5,237 6,374 151 4,061 4,783 6,978 8,370 5,730 14,994 23,575 27,542 30,576 258 874 1,135 1,119 1,283 17 89 462 912 1,045 854 1,916 4,604 5,468 6,012 1,129 2,879 6,201 7,499 8,340 581 2,611 6,643 7,939 8,755 3,663 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 4,244 2,612 6,644 7,940 8,756 5,373 5,491 12,845 15,439 17,096 0 3,808 3,808 3,808 3,808 100 5,137 6,223 7,528 8,868 100 8,945 10,031 11,336 12,676 257 558 698 768 805 5,730 14,994 23,575 27,542 30,576 (HK$) 2.35 2.63 2.98 3.33 12 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F (%) 26.4 44.4 38.3 36.6 (%) 120.0 42.6 31.3 30.1 (%) 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 ( ) 4.9 7.9 9.1 11.0 ( ) 117.8 80.3 87.4 108.5 ( ) 559.8 257.0 132.2 119.7 (x) 19.3 13.8 9.5 8.7 (x) 37.8 8.9 4.7 4.3 EBITDA (x) 106.0 16.1 9.2 8.3 (x) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 (%) 13.0 11.4 14.8 14.4 (%) 3.9 4.6 5.7 5.7 (%) 2.2 8.0 10.1 10.0 (%) 17.5 77.4 76.5 69.9 (%) 29.2 66.2 70.0 69.1 (x) 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 (%) 0.0 1.8 2.6 2.9 (x) 3.8 7.3 8.7 7.4 45
16.4% 15.8% 15.2% 14.8% 0902 HK$6.450 200420% 2004 6 128.00 24% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2002A 18,474 3,921 0.327 6.6 20.9 0.170 2.5 13.4 2003A 23,388 5,430 0.451 36.4 15.2 0.250 3.7 16.9 2004F 28,655 6,148 0.510 13.4 13.4 0.280 4.1 17.3 2005F 33,240 7,224 0.599 17.5 11.4 0.330 4.8 18.5 2006F 37,562 7,815 0.648 9.8 10.6 0.357 5.2 18.2 46 Shares in issue (m) 12,055.3 Major shareholder 42.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 77,756.7 Free float (%) 25.3 3 Average vol. ( 000) 27,837.0 04 04 Net gearing (%) 39.5 04 04 P/B (x) 2.2 04 04 NBV per share (HK$) 2.91 52 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 8.850/4.100 Est. NAV (HK$) 8.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 0.8/(13.3)/51.8 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.3)/(5.8)/32.9 2004 1Q24.6% 2004 1Q 24% 245.6 16.4%64.6 14.04 25.0% 24.6% EPS 0.23 2003 21.1% 30.3% 32.4% 2004 1-4 25% 24.7% 22.1% 20% 15% 13.3% 12.4% 10% 6.1% 5% 3.9% 0% Zhang Wenxian
Guotai Junan (HK) 2004 45.13 540%90% 55% 60% 50% 50% 10% 6,200 3,096MW18,832MW 19.7% 1,050MW 2,740MW 30.5% 1,818MW 40.6% 5 n.a. (MW) 2,400 1,200 1,325 2,748 1,200 11,513 (MW) 2x660 2x300 2x362.5 4x360+108 2x320 6,513 (%) 40 100 55 60 100 n.a. (MW) 528 600 399 929 640 3,096 2001 2000/2001 1991 1991/1998 1996 n.a. 20 14 13 13 13 n.a. 2003 80.40 31.94 44.11 74.98 39.86 271.29 2003) 6,091 5,324 6,085 5,105/1,358 6,228 n.a. 2003 (%) 5.91 5.65 8.15 10.4/7.69 5.53 n.a. 2003 (RMB m) 701 61 78 77 91 1,009 2003 (RMB m) 2,432 413 322 984 525 4,676 47 45.1310%0.62 45.752003 70.8% 2003 5.22 8.8 15.2 15.9 5 2003 ROE 21.6% 2003200416.9% 17.3%EV/EBITDA 5.72004 7.7 EV/KW3,8002003 6 4,941 /KW 200420% 2003 15.4% 2004 GDP7% 2004 2004 12% 2003 10 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 1002102004 2005 20% 16% 1,090.9 1,265.5
2004 20032004 60%-70% 20045% 10% 1997-2005RMB 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004F 2005F 2006F 48 2003 12 2004 6 15 15 5% 9.4%15 86 11%-30% 2004 2.1% 6 5.5% 1997-2005RMB 310 300 290 280 270 260 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004F 2005F 2006F
Guotai Junan (HK) 2006 2003 2004-2006 4 2004 1%2004-2005 2.8% 4.7% 2004-2005 1% 1.5% 2003-2005 10.6% 300 300 1 600 300 1,000 5,000 2005 19,500MW 2003-200510.6% 49 MW 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004F 2005F 20032004 15.213.43.7% 4.1% P/B 2.42.2 2003 20048.47.72003-2005 EPS15.2%DCFNAV 8.00 128.00 NAV 24% 20042005 16.614.27.20 NAV 10%
50 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 18,474 23,388 28,655 33,240 37,562 (%) 17.0 26.6 22.5 16.0 13.0 (6,916) (9,025) (12,006) (13,509) (15,265) (608) (922) (1,129) (1,333) (1,455) (3,534) (4,117) (4,817) (5,686) (6,208) (1,036) (1,440) (1,764) (2,046) (2,312) (36) 0 0 0 0 (264) (215) (263) (305) (345) (504) (597) (804) (1,014) (1,146) (12,896) (16,315) (20,783) (23,893) (26,731) 5,578 7,073 7,872 9,347 10,830 83 53 65 75 85 (562) (569) (750) (870) (983) (31) (28) (35) (40) (45) (510) (544) (720) (835) (943) 1 11 13 13 13 (11) 212 540 583 630 5,058 6,764 7,721 9,126 10,549 (981) (1,149) (1,313) (1,551) (1,793) 4,077 5,614 6,408 7,574 8,756 (156) (184) (260) (350) (941) 3,921 5,430 6,148 7,224 7,815 (%) 13.6 38.5 13.2 17.5 8.2 (RMB) 0.654 0.902 0.510 0.599 0.648 (%) 7.8 38.1 (43.5) 17.5 8.2 2,040 3,014 3,381 3,973 4,298 (RMB) 0.340 0.501 0.280 0.330 0.357 (%) 2.1 3.1 1.7 2.0 2.2 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 5,058 6,764 7,721 9,126 10,549 0 0 0 0 0 3,534 4,117 4,817 5,686 6,208 (83) (53) (65) (75) (85) 562 569 750 870 983 (246) (246) (246) (246) (246) (734) (524) (763) (941) (990) 97 63 81 90 103 (984) (1,149) (1,313) (1,551) (1,793) (124) (245) (4,940) (1,770) (2,318) 7,080 9,295 6,042 11,189 12,411 0 0 0 0 0 (1,594) (1,555) (4,372) (3,291) (3,686) 5,083 0 0 0 0 (2,776) (2,940) (3,602) (4,178) (4,722) 362 459 562 652 736 1,074 (4,036) (7,412) (6,818) (7,671) 0 0 0 0 0 293 1,678 1,045 910 858 (3,444) (31) 4,053 (264) (259) (1,939) (2,040) (3,014) (3,381) (3,973) (2,235) 0 0 0 0 (7,324) (393) 2,084 (2,736) (3,375) 829 4,865 714 1,635 1,365 2,173 3,003 4,129 4,843 6,478 3,003 4,129 4,843 6,478 7,843 ) 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F 41,103 42,658 47,030 49,321 51,507 201 2,766 3,389 3,931 4,442 255 255 0 0 0 127 299 0 0 0 (1,978) (1,731) (1,484) (1,236) (989) 1,068 1,038 1,272 1,475 1,667 40,776 45,306 50,207 53,491 56,627 3,003 4,129 4,843 6,478 7,843 1,142 145 178 206 233 2,362 2,804 3,436 3,985 4,503 923 800 981 1,137 1,285 243 259 318 369 417 7,685 8,303 9,754 12,175 14,281 48,461 53,610 59,961 65,666 70,908 3,734 3,343 4,095 4,751 5,368 2,964 4,642 5,687 6,597 7,454 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 954 4 5 6 7 7,652 9,242 9,787 11,353 12,829 156 0 0 0 0 9,185 9,154 13,207 12,942 12,684 141 103 126 147 166 9,482 9,257 13,333 13,089 12,849 6,000 6,028 12,055 12,055 12,055 24,416 27,928 25,034 28,877 32,719 30,416 33,955 37,090 40,933 44,774 911 1,155 (249) 291 455 48,461 53,610 59,961 65,666 70,908 (RMB) 5.07 5.63 3.08 3.40 3.71 12 2002A 2003A 2004F 2005F 2006F (%) 30.2 30.2 27.5 28.1 28.8 (%) 21.2 23.2 21.5 21.7 20.8 43.3 34.9 27.1 28.6 29.0 37.2 40.3 39.7 40.7 41.2 168.7 143.1 113.1 119.5 121.0 (x) 5.0 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.5 EBITDA (x) 10.2 8.4 7.7 6.4 5.6 (x) 11.6 8.9 13.6 7.4 6.6 (x) 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 (%) 13.4 16.9 17.3 18.5 18.2 (%) 11.7 13.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 (%) 14.0 16.6 16.5 17.8 19.4 (%) 31.2 30.0 39.6 33.5 28.7 (%) 30.2 27.0 35.6 31.6 28.3 (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 (x) 9.9 12.4 10.5 10.7 11.0