Guotai Junan (HK)

Transcription

1 Hong Kong 2H Market Outlook

2 Guotai Junan (HK) (0836) (0902) (0991) (1071) (2380) (0029) (0405) (0588) (0604) (0688) (1207) (2868) (3383) (0966) (2318) (2328) (2628) (0694) (0753) (1110) (0183) (0349) (0939) (2388) (3328) (3988) (0177) (0548) (0576) (0995)

3 (0338) (0386) (8042) (0728) (0762) (0906) (0941) (0874) (1093) (2005) (8069) (0358) (2600) (2626) (2899) (3330) (0323) (0347) (1053) (0914) (0506) (0700) (0828) (0980) (1068) (1212) (2319) (2331) (3389) (0135) (0857) (0883) (2883) (8261) (1088) (1171)

4 Guotai Junan (HK) (0267) (0270) (0291) (0363) (0392) (0882) (0144) (0525) (0598) (1138) (1199) (1919) (2866) (2880) (3382) (0297) (0763) (0981) (1072) (1133) (2727) (2345) (8243)

5 (%) (%) 21 A A IPO IPO 26 GDP (PMI) (PMI) ISM ISM OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD

6 Guotai Junan (HK) ISM CRB LIBOR/HIBOR LIBOR/HIBOR FTSE S&P500(MMI) HA 35 HA PEG

7 2006 Larry Jiang Vivien Zhang ,328 7, % 40.1% ,5003 7,500 7, % 17.6% % % 11.1% 6.3% % % 10.8% % 4% GDP 07 GDP GDP 07

8 Guotai Junan (HK) G ; % 32.4% % % % % 8.4% 11.4%17.7% 6.3% 3.8% % 24.0% 24.8% % % %5.5% 16.8% % 19.5% 19.7% 20.5% % % 4.8% (0836) (0902) % 10.6% % 40-50% % (0688) (0604)

9 53.1% 46.8% 35.5% % 06 PEG % 1, %A (2628) 13.4% 7.2% 4.2% (0694) % % 5.3% % 13.0% 1.7% % PEG 1.2 (3328)(0349) (0183) % 5.3% 6.1% % PEG % 5.7% (0995) (0177) (0548) 9.2% 2.9% 8.4% % 7.8% % 6.9% 6.7% (0338) % (0386) (0338) 8.6% 2.4%9.0% 2 2 3G (0941) 3

10 Guotai Junan (HK) (0762) (0906) (0728) % PEG % 18.3% 32.3% 26.0% 14.7% GDP %0422.1% % % PEG0.3(0358) (2600) (2899) (2626) (3330) 39.8% 33.5% 22.2% GDP % % % 11.6% % PEG % 6.8% % 17.3% 6.0% (0857) % PEG % 26.1%4.7% 4.9%5(0883) (0135) (8261) 1.9%4.4% 15.7% 25.3% % % 3.9% (0270) (0291) (0392) 11.7% 5.4% 5.9% (1199) (3382) (1138)

11 (0525) % % 3.7% 43.6% % 26.0% %0415.3% % % PEG 0.9(0700)(3389) (2331) (1212) 18.6%12.3% 1.0% (1093) % 12.3% % 12.6% 12.6%(0297) (0914) ,5007,468 06(3988) 7, , , ,9977, , % ,50017, , ,000

12 Guotai Junan (HK) 91(1) 06 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) * , , , , , R (24.1) H 4.88 (4.4) H 4.98 (12.7) H R , , , , , , , , (65.4) REIT-R 3.05 (11.6) H 1.64 (15.5) (6.5) R R (0.3) R (19.2) H (14.8) R , , , , (4.8) , R (0.324) H H (20.5) (2.0) H , n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. (16.1) (8.3) 6.5 5, , n.a. n.a ,064 n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. (15.9) (6.4) (3.0) 7, H 1.08 (12.2) (0.092) (0.175) (0.074) H H (11.2) (25.8) H 1.72 (22.7) (0.406) (0.327) (0.118) (0.052) , (2.7) , , , , , (7.3) , R (17.7) R H (12.8) R (0.7) (14.6) (5.3) H H ,010, , , , , H 4.10 (6.3) H H 4.50 (6.3) H , HR * 06 7

13 12 91(2) 06 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) , , H (16.2) 54.1 (6.1) H R , , , , , H 2.43 (14.9) R R R ,203, n.a. n.a , n.a. n.a , n.a. n.a n.a. n.a , H (0.5) R 0.81 (32.5) (36.1) (49.7) (6.3) H , , , , , , H (8.7) H 5.40 (8.5) H H H , n.a. n.a , n.a. n.a ,454 n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. (9.7) (1.7) 9.2 2, H 2.33 (3.1) (54.7) H H 1.60 (17.5) (0.250) (0.041) , , , , , , , , n.a. n.a , , , R 1.71 (8.1) (9.2) R R 2.70 (6.1) H , HR

14 Guotai Junan (HK) 91(3) 06 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) , ,369, , , , , , R (28.1) (3.3) (4.1) H R H H H H ,913, , , , , , , R (41.0) R 2.83 (2.6) R (4.6) R (11.5) R (9.2) (17.1) R (13.9) (20.0) , (15.9) (13.1) , , , , , , n.a. n.a , , , R H H 2.40 (23.8) (2.6) H 5.35 (6.1) R (1.2) H (23.7) (28.4) H 1.97 (27.0) (31.7) (29.4) H (33.0) R (27.4) ,048 (4.3) (3.0) , , ,691 n.a n.a. n.a , , , , , n.a. n.a R H (10.5) (4.5) H R 1.02 (2.9) (0.048) H H (8.7) H 2.55 (3.8) H H ,987,933 (1)+(2)* ,099,904 (1) ,814,657 (2) HR *9 13

15 (1) 14 5% % 0624% 2006 ( %)* 2006 ( %) 2006 ( %) R 5.0 (2.5) (16.7) H 4.2 (2.7) (11.3) H 3.1 (3.8) H 4.1 (4.1) R 1.3 (1.4) (11.7) R 5.0 (0.3) (16.5) 0405 REIT-R 5.0 (6.0) H 5.0 (0.0) R 0.0 (2.9) (11.8) R 4.2 (0.1) (5.4) R 8.0 (1.0) H 5.0 (0.4) (9.5) R 0.0 (0.1) R (35.5) (5.5) H (12.2) 2.5 (5.0) H (15.9) (1.1) H (7.3) H n.a. n.a. n.a H (0.3) (0.3) H 19.4 (0.3) H n.a. n.a. n.a R R H (3.7) R H (5.8) H (9.4) (4.3) H 0.0 (2.4) H 4.9 (0.4) (10.1) H 2.4 (0.3) H (0.3) (0.2) (10.6) H 19.3 (0.3) H 19.5 (0.3) (0.1) (0.6) H 0.2 (0.5) R R (0.4) (2.2) R (0.0) H 0.0 (1.3) R 4.0 (4.7) (20.0) (0.7) H 0.0 (0.2) (10.6) HR *

16 Guotai Junan (HK) (2) 5% % 0624% 2006 ( %)* 2006 ( %) 2006 ( %) H (1.6) (1.1) (13.6) H (2.9) (0.4) H (1.1) (1.3) H (3.7) (0.1) H (2.1) (0.3) H 34.2 (7.3) (16.1) H (15.4) H R (12.1) R (2.3) 0700 (6.0) 0.8 (17.4) R H (1.1) (0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (11.6) 2331 (0.3) (2.7) R H (1.3) R (7.6) H (2.1) (0.7) (5.8) H (3.1) H (2.9) (0.6) H (0.7) (0.6) R 1.3 (1.4) (2.7) R 1.7 (1.9) (2.8) R 2.2 (0.1) (7.1) R (8.4) R (1.2) R 5.0 (0.1) (6.1) R (3.9) (0.5) (11.8) H 5.6 (1.0) (9.2) H (22.0) H (0.5) (0.2) (10.6) R (11.5) H (6.2) 0.0 (5.0) H (12.5) (0.6) (9.0) H 1.3 (3.1) R (0.9) (0.9) (10.6) R 1.5 (0.5) H (9.1) 4.6 (0.1) H (3.5) (3.8) R n.a. (45.5) (23.2) H (10.5) H (14.3) (1.2) (5.1) H (3.4) H (4.3) H 0.0 (0.1) (6.0) HR * 15

17 23/6/ F (%) H H R H H R H H R R R R H R HR

18 Guotai Junan (HK) (%) 05A 06F 07F 08F 05A 06F 07F 08F H H REIT-R R R H H H R H H H H H H R R H H R H H HR 17

19 (%) ,268 2,165 (1) ) 20,429 26,164 31,605 34,962 36, ,131 1,366 1,476 1,608 1,596 2,200 2,739 3,023 3,105 (%) (%) (2) ) 5,679 6,928 8,091 9,078 9, (%) (%) (1)+(2) * 26,273 33,320 40,001 44,437 47,257 1,396 1,643 1,990 2,155 2,343 1,885 2,537 3,132 3,453 3,580 (%) (%) * 91 (%) (%) (1)+(2) * (1) (2) * REIT (0405)

20 Guotai Junan (HK) (1)+(2) * (1) (2) ** n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a * 9 ** (%) (1)+(2) * (1) (2) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a *9

21 91 (%) (1)+(2)* 367, , , , , , (6.5) 4.2 (1) 242, , , , , , (0.6) 8.0 (2) 124, , , , , , (18.1) (4.8) 14,718 26,704 42,239 39,049 21,539 21, (7.6) (44.8) (2.5) 1, ,488 1,435 1,076 1,095 (11.0) (58.9) (25.0) 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13,604 12,615 23,538 27,881 31,832 28,232 (7.3) (11.3) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,028 6,823 7,962 5,786 5,651 3, (27.3) (2.3) (41.1) 43,141 65,885 61,843 70,280 82,331 88, (6.1) , , , , , , (2.9) (2.2) 848 1, (46.5) 19.5 (41.2) (5.0) 7,199 11,732 11,980 15,044 14,521 11, (3.5) (18.4) 7,031 5,780 10,257 10,971 9,126 8,155 (17.8) (16.8) (10.6) 2,252 2,828 2,894 4,882 4,256 4, (12.8) , , , , , , (4.2) ,543 7,653 7,111 15,250 8,750 6, (7.1) (42.6) (28.6) 10,040 22,172 26,548 32,044 18,414 16, (42.5) (10.5) 20 3G * (1)+(2)* 115,545 94, , , , ,008 (1) 70,018 46,617 78, , , ,090 (2) 44,728 47,970 92,158 68, , ,587 (1,182) (18,281) (19,939) (9,510) 13,475 16,408 1,837 (260) (3,311) 2,491 6,992 12,945 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (6,853) (3,671) (19,688) (23,574) (12,207) (11,817) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 818 (1,945) (927) 580 4,217 6,298 22,346 8,474 21,562 18,895 15,451 22,274 36,609 61,972 95,947 89, , , (781) (135) (351) (562) 2,054 6,746 12,363 16,184 (923) 2,249 (2,209) (1,626) 3,184 9,040 (79) 842 2,047 2,372 3,361 5,870 60,108 56, ,364 89, , ,234 1,949 5,760 8,294 2,565 9,222 13,223 3,263 (3,859) (4,936) (775) 5,960 8,967 *9

22 Guotai Junan (HK) 91(%) (1)+(2)* (1) (2) (0.02) (0.08) (0.12) (0.12) (0.10) (0.08) (0.07) (0.11) (0.33) (0.34) (0.39) (0.47) (0.53) (0.60) (0.00) (0.03) (0.06) (0.02) (0.06) (0.14) (0.01) (0.05) (0.06) (0.08) (0.12) (0.01) (0.03) (0.05) *9 A 06% 07% P/B 05 P/B 05 ROE PER PER PER % (7.1) (24.7) (15.3) (14.0) (20.0) (0.4) n.a n.a (4.7) (10.7) (13.2) (16.0) (25.0) (4.2) (28.8) (30.7) (4.9) PER P/B ROE

23 22 % % * % % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (15.9) (6.4) (3.0) , , , , , , , , , , , % % (16.2) 54.1 (6.1) (12.8) (20.5) (2.0) (4.4) (12.7) (3.1) (54.7) (8.7) (8.5) (6.3) (6.3) (23.8) (2.6) (6.1) (23.7) (28.4) (27.0) (31.7) (29.4) (8.2) (12.9) (11.2) (25.8) (22.7) (0.41) (0.33) (0.12) (0.05) n.a. n.a. n.a. (5.3) (14.6) (33.3) (14.9) (10.5) (4.5) (17.5) (5.5) (3.8) , ,268 *

24 Guotai Junan (HK) % n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18/6/ /12/ /6/ /12/ /06/ , A 05A 06F 07F 08F 23 % % % % ,268 05A 06F 07F 08F 05A 06F 07F 08F 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,268

25 24 (%) (%) (%) 06 (%) 23/6/2006 (%) ,547, , , , ,937, (4.0) (0.7) (15.8) , , , , , (0.3) (15.7) (12.1) (12.4) (9.2) (20.0) ,310 (1.7) (12.5) , , , , , , (4.6) (21.3) (4.9) (5.2) (6.2) (4.8) , (4.2) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,568, (2.2) (67.2) (5.3) (30.6) (0.2) 0019 A (65.3) (40.5) 2.1 (4.5) (23.8) (29.5) (12.7) (2.2) (5.8) (10.4) (29.4) (28.0) (7.2) (31.2) (2.5) , (12.4) ,334, , (3.7) Bloomberg ,809

26 Guotai Junan (HK) % n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a /6/ /12/ /6/ /12/ /6/2006 Bloomberg , A 05A 06F 07F 08F 25 % % % Bloomberg ,809 05A 06F 07F 08F 05A 06F 07F 08F 10, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Bloomberg ,809

27 H IPO ,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 06F ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70, ,441 70%1, IPO ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 06F ,000 20, , 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, , , ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10, A 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

28 Guotai Junan (HK) GDP PMI ,000 7, ,000 7, , , , , , , , ,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4, : CEIC Data CEIC Data PMI 2005 ISM ,000 16,500 16,000 15, ,000 16,000 14, ,000 14,500 14, ,000 10, , , , , CEIC Data (ISM) ISM 1995 OECD , , ,000 5, ,000 10,000 9, ,000 3, ,000 7, ,000 1, ,000 5,000 4, , (ISM) (OECD)

29 OECD 1995 OECD , , , , , ,000 5, ,000 4,000 10, ,000 2, , , , (OECD) (OECD) OECD 1995 OECD , , ,000 14, ,000 6,000 5, , , , , , ,000 1, , (OECD) (OECD) OECD 1995 OECD , , , ,000 6, , , ,000 4,000 10,000 8, ,000 2,000 1, , (OECD) (OECD)

30 Guotai Junan (HK) ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 (6,000) (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6, ,000 10,000 15,000 20, (4) (2) CEIC data ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 (6,000) (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6, (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) ISM (ISM)

31 CRB ,000 CRB 400 6,000 CRB , , ,000 7,000 6, , ,000 3, , , CEIC Data , ,000 12,000 8, ,

32 Guotai Junan (HK) 1LIBOR/HIBOR LIBOR/HIBOR , , ,000 16, ,000 6, , , , , , ,000 8,000 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) 2,000 1,000 (0.5) (1.0) 6,000 (2.0) 0 (1.5) CEIC Data British Banker Association CEIC Data British Banker Association FTSE , ,000 6, , , , , , , ,000 60,000 16, ,000 50,000 12, ,000 40, ,000 8,000 4, (1) 8,000 4,000 20,000 10, (2) LIBOR Bloomberg

33 ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % 20 % % pa % pa ,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4, CEIC Data

34 Guotai Junan (HK) CPI , ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, CEIC Data 33

35 CEIC data : CEIC Data S&P 500 MMI (20) (40) (60) (80) CEIC Data S&P 500 (MMI) = S&P 500 * 10-1 MMI > 0 MMI < 0 MMI > 20% MMI < -20%

36 Guotai Junan (HK) HA HA % (3.5 ) 48% (2.2 ) 58% (2.9 ) 41% (2.0 ) 29% (1.6 ) 33% (1.7 ) 34% (1.8 ) 33% 84% (5%) 75% 20% 84% (10%) 78% (16%) 70% (11%) 75% (19%) 76% 2,717 5,020 3,919 4,741 4,843 5,330 6,268 A 1,602 1,569 1,500 1,330 1,157 1,221 1,688 HA HA AH H A H A (%) 0042.HK SZ HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SZ (19.3) HK SZ HK SS HK SS HK SS (0.2) HK SS HK SS HK SZ HK SZ HK SS HK SS (6.8) HK SS HK SZ HK SS (10.4) HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS HK SS (0921)H HK$ = RMB1.03

37 IBES 06

38 Guotai Junan (HK) PEG PEG 6.4

39 (%)

40 Guotai Junan (HK) (B-A) (C-B) (C-A) (E-D) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , A B- C- D- 2E-

41 % % % % % 15,809 14, (14.1) ,268 5, (19.0) ,165 1, (66.5) A 1,688 1, (27.9) B (63.0) A (38.7) B (37.1) ,989 10, (6.5) ,245 1,248 (0.3) (19.9) (2.5) ,121 2,205 (3.8) (58.7) (6.9) ,692 5, (18.1) DAX 5,530 5, (32.0) CAC40 4,818 4, (30.6) ,124 16,111 (6.1) (61.2) (8.0) ,229 1,379 (10.9) (16.1) (11.2) ,452 6,548 (1.5) (37.9) (2.2) ,113 2, (34.8) (2.7) (7.6) (60.8) (11.6) (28.9) (5.0) ,343 2,347 (0.2) (12.1) (2.4) ,926 4, (8.0) ,584 3, (5.7) BSE30 10,401 9, (17.9) HERMES 43,517 55,360 (21.4) (37.7) (21.4) Bloomberg Bloomberg

42 Guotai Junan (HK) Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Rating : 6 18 Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Relative Performance Buy >15% Accumulate 5% 15% Neutral -5% 5% Reduce -5% -15% Sell <-15%

43 42 Zhang wenxian % 10.1% 9.9%15.4% 14.9% 13.5% GDP10.2% % 14.8% 13.8% 9.4% %27, %30, E 2007E 2006E , , % 12% , , , % 2.4% % 4.7%

44 Guotai Junan (HK) 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4, E 2006E 2007E % % % % % , , , %-5%

45 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / FOB , % % 3.1% P/BV DCF NAV NAV 10% (HK$) (X) (X) (X) ROE(%) (%) (RMB) (%)

46 Guotai Junan (HK) 0836 HK$ %C1% % 14.8% % 12.4% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 1,898 1, A 5,927 2, F 9,465 2, (19.4) F 13,058 2, F 13,620 2, Shares in issue (m) 3,812.5 Major shareholder 72.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 21,159.4 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.750/4.125 Est. NAV (HK$) 7.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.5)/1.1/27.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.1)/0.9/ Bloomberg % % , % % % ,400MW 1,631MW % % E 2007E 2008E -20 Zhang Wenxian

47 % 2.0%16.3% 18.9% % 50.8% C1% 6 2.5% 48340% 87.5%90%C 35% 36% C1% % 0.2%C 3 660MW % %19.5% 20063% 5% 4% % % % 23.6% 22.7% E 2007E 2006E % 14.8% % 18.9% 1% 2% 3% 3% % 12.4%11.9% 14.8% % 12.4% % 12.4% % 12.4% 25%

48 Guotai Junan (HK) % 3.1% P/BV DCFNAV NAV 10.2% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,898 5,927 9,465 13,058 13, (911) (3,231) (5,071) (6,956) (7,123) (26) (111) (199) (274) (286) (192) (588) (1,033) (1,722) (1,929) (368) (727) (1,041) (1,306) (1,362) (1,498) (4,657) (7,344) (10,257) (10,700) ,342 2,236 2,960 3,087 (123) (381) (504) (653) (748) , (23) , ,493 3,082 2,673 3,294 3,375 (0) (11) (82) (325) (345) 1,493 3,071 2,591 2,969 3,030 (297) (213) (286) (379) (395) 1,196 2,858 2,305 2,591 2, (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 11,981 17,561 22,528 25,307 25,578 3,878 3,890 4,830 5,818 6,855 1, ,169 1,169 1, ,207 22,000 29,071 32,832 34, ,579 2,521 3,479 3, ,247 4,411 3,832 4,791 6,772 4,199 6,457 7,097 9,297 11,471 21,406 28,457 36,169 42,129 45,607 1,180 3,452 4,482 5,333 5, ,458 1,983 3,333 4,346 4,841 3,640 5,467 7,866 9,749 10,362 6,621 9,062 12,212 14,575 15, ,624 9,075 12,225 14,588 15,743 10,264 14,542 20,091 24,336 26,104 3,808 3,810 3,810 3,810 3,810 6,350 9,283 10,864 12,878 14,866 10,158 13,093 14,673 16,688 18, ,404 1, ,406 28,457 36,169 42,129 45,607 (HKD) ,493 3,082 2,673 3,294 3, ,033 1,722 1, (958) (855) (940) (988) (1,037) (250) (195) (144) (134) (174) (177) (28) (465) (802) (1,046) (1,063) (166) , ,433 3,079 4,293 4,936 (5,903) (3,909) (6,000) (4,500) (2,200) ,949 (767) (767) (767) (5,153) (960) (6,767) (5,267) (2,967) (328) (505) (667) (865) (991) 7,983 7,410 6,666 6,200 4,796 (3,438) (5,695) (2,166) (2,825) (3,146) , ,109 1, (450) 1,097 (580) 960 1,980 3,696 3,247 4,411 3,832 4, ,247 4,411 3,832 4,791 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (%) (x)

49 0902 HK$ % 5.4% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 30,118 5, (2.0) A 40,077 4, (8.5) F 47,198 5, F 50,123 5, F 55,489 6, Shares in issue (m) 12,055.4 Major shareholder 42.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 58,770.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 33, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.950/4.700 Est. NAV (HK$) 6.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.3)/(3.5)/(15.2) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.9)/(3.7)/(26.6) Bloomberg , ,094 77% 2,55250% 55%-65% %-16% % % % A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F Zhang Wenxian

50 Guotai Junan (HK) % 18.7% 20.1% A1999A2000A2001A2002A2003A2004A2005A2006F2007F2008F A+H2006 4A % % % 52.1% % 5.4% % 4.2%5% (3%) 6.8% 1.1%18% 19% % 5.4% EPS %60% DPS % 5.8% P/BV DCF NAV 10% NAV

51 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 30,118 40,077 47,198 50,123 55,489 (%) (15,068 ) (21,203 ) (24,593 ) (25,297 ) (27,332 ) (808 ) (1,165 ) (1,372 ) (1,457 ) (1,614 ) (4,707 ) (6,168 ) (7,056 ) (7,978 ) (8,701 ) (1,877 ) (2,487 ) (2,929 ) (3,111 ) (3,444 ) (134 ) (141 ) (166 ) (176 ) (195 ) (606 ) (1,903 ) (2,580 ) (2,740 ) (3,033 ) (23,200 ) (33,068 ) (38,697 ) (40,759 ) (44,318 ) 6,918 7,009 8,502 9,363 11, (663 ) (1,427 ) (1,842 ) (1,992 ) (2,014 ) (119 ) (740 ) (1,124 ) (1,723 ) (1,938 ) (1,961 ) ,530 6,592 7,532 8,220 10,056 (949 ) (1,044 ) (1,356 ) (1,562 ) (2,413 ) 5,581 5,548 6,176 6,658 7,643 (257 ) (676 ) (753 ) (811 ) (931 ) 5,324 4,872 5,424 5,847 6,711 (%) (2.0 ) (8.5 ) (RMB) (%) (2.0 ) (8.5 ) ,014 3,014 3,254 3,508 4,027 (RMB) (%) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 6,530 6,592 7,532 8,220 10, ,707 6,173 7,056 7,978 8,701 (43 ) (54 ) (54 ) (54 ) (54 ) 663 1,427 1,842 1,992 2,014 (205 ) (205 ) (205 ) (205 ) (205 ) (975 ) (1,965 ) (2,414 ) (2,760 ) (2,735 ) (1,124 ) (1,044 ) (1,356 ) (1,562 ) (2,413 ) (1,434 ) (2,302 ) (1,275 ) (1,670 ) (1,749 ) 8,163 8,681 11,182 11,995 13,672 (9,878 ) (13,843 ) (14,700 ) (14,100 ) (9,800 ) (4,607 ) (2,528 ) ,128 1,198 1,326 (13,650 ) (15,413 ) (13,572 ) (12,902 ) (8,474 ) 6, ,093 5, (3,006 ) (3,022 ) (3,014 ) (3,254 ) (3,508 ) ,654 7,085 7,919 1,830 (2,757 ) (1,833 ) 352 5, ,440 4,129 2,296 2,648 8,177 9,099 2,296 2,648 8,177 9,099 11, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 57,780 78,997 96, , ,717 4,328 4,594 5,410 5,746 6, ,033 1,033 1,033 1, (1,484 ) ,772 2,016 2,374 2,522 2,791 63,126 87, , , ,903 2,296 2,648 8,177 9,099 11, ,973 6,022 7,093 7,532 8,338 1,431 2,311 2,722 2,891 3, ,008 1,071 1,185 9,654 12,063 19,003 20,596 24,267 72,780 99, , , ,170 4,551 6,905 8,132 8,636 9,561 9,642 9,747 11,479 12,190 13, ,733 23,107 24,550 25,765 23, ,955 28,862 28,285 27,719 27, ,326 1,562 1,659 1,836 16,515 30,188 29,847 29,378 29,001 12,055 12,055 12,055 12,055 12,055 24,210 27,982 30,392 32,984 36,187 36,266 40,037 42,447 45,040 48,243 3,266 6,107 27,975 35,712 49,870 72,780 99, , , ,170 (Rmb) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)

52 Guotai Junan (HK) 0991 HK A EPS14.1% 16.6% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 13,584 2, A 17,994 2, F 23,933 2, F 31,497 3, F 31,346 3, Shares in issue (m) 5,162.8 Major shareholder 35.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 29,428.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 15, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.200/4.775 Est. NAV (HK$) 6.5 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.2)/(2.5)/(16.4) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.9)/(2.7)/(27.8) 51 Bloomberg ,250MW 30.8%2005 8,950MW 7,200MW 1,750MW ,075MW 3,071MW 4,980MW 2,742MW36.7% 28.5% 26.4% 19.8%2005 2,600MW 80% % 3.4% % 25.5% , ,000 6, ,000 4,000 3,000 2, ,000 0 Zhang wenxian

53 80% 20% %45 3,400MW 4 650MW 2,600MW MW A A % A 3 60 A AA % Net gearing A 19.4%2007 A A (%) A (%) ,828,768, ,130,472,961* ,792, ,792, ,792, ,792, ,827, ,185,600* A 605,936, H 1,430,669, ,430,669, ,162,849, ,162,849, * % 16.6% % 25.5% % 5.0% 10% 12% 25% 27% % 16.6%50% % 5.9% P/BV DCFNAV EPS 15.4% NAV 10%

54 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 13,584 17,994 23,933 31,497 31,346 (4,951) (7,532) (10,505) (14,751) (13,851) (544) (574) (736) (875) (927) (2,087) (2,768) (3,548) (4,216) (4,466) (873) (1,193) (1,586) (2,088) (2,078) (169) (205) (273) (360) (358) (860) (1,223) (1,627) (2,141) (2,130) (9,485) (13,495) (18,275) (24,430) (23,810) 4,099 4,500 5,658 7,067 7,536 (4) (1) (1) (1) (479) (675) (1,070) (1,102) (1,141) 3,663 3,863 4,640 6,034 6,465 (920) (813) (1,160) (1,629) (1,746) 2,744 3,050 3,480 4,405 4,719 (451) (699) (796) (1,276) (1,308) 2,293 2,351 2,684 3,129 3,411 (%) (RMB) (%) ,136 1,177 1,342 1,565 1,706 (%) (RMB) (%) (x) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,097 6,790 8,188 10,250 10,931 (1,034) (923) (1,160) (1,629) (1,746) (1,189) (1,514) (1,177) (1,342) (1,565) 3,874 4,354 5,851 7,279 7, , (15,573) (17,813) (8,340) (4,050) (5,850) (469) (154) (154) (154) (154) (14,940) (17,710) (8,378) (4,052) (5,852) ,935 31,111 3,812 (1,460) 4,376 (11,884) (18,627) (140) (300) 304 (1,022) (1,646) (1,070) (1,102) (1,141) ,372 10,953 2,755 (2,660) 3,739 (693) (2,403) ,507 4,155 3,462 1,029 1,257 1,824 3,462 1,029 1,257 1,824 7, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 42,636 59,377 64,169 64,003 65,387 1,210 1,470 2,828 4,602 5,577 43,845 60,846 66,996 68,605 70,965 3,462 1,029 1,257 1,824 7, ,213 1,207 1,290 1,474 1,961 2,581 2,568 5,629 3,690 4,796 6,481 11,966 49,475 64,536 71,792 75,086 82,930 3,456 4,559 6,063 7,979 7,941 5,980 5,717 6,053 7,673 10,013 1,107 2,489 2,629 2,930 2, ,043 13,130 15,222 19,209 21,204 17,949 29,215 32,551 29,171 31, ,353 30,677 33,650 30,270 32,610 30,396 43,807 48,872 49,479 53,814 5,163 5,163 5,163 5,163 5,163 11,948 13,163 14,669 16,456 18,303 17,110 18,325 19,832 21,619 23,466 1,968 2,403 3,088 3,987 5,651 49,475 64,536 71,792 75,086 82, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)

55 1071 HK$ A 103 H % 12.0% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 10,175 1, A 13,300 1, (10.0) F 14,968 1, F 19,786 1, F 24,857 1, Shares in issue (m) 6,021.1 Major shareholder 50.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 12,493.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 9, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /1.850 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.5/(4.6)/(6.7) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.8/(4.8)/(18.1) Bloomberg % , % 22.5% 9%-10% ( ) % 48.2% 3A 1.26 A+H H % 5.1% % 35.4%8.4% 32.2% 1% 15% 31% 32% % 12.0% % Zhang Wenxian

56 Guotai Junan (HK) P/B % 3.7% NAV 12.9% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 10,175 13,300 14,968 19,786 24,857 (4,648) (7,271) (7,962) (10,634) (13,386) (144) (152) (171) (226) (284) (1,533) (1,622) (1,754) (2,346) (3,038) (920) (1,057) (1,190) (1,573) (1,976) (214) (257) (290) (383) (481) (358) (506) (570) (753) (946) (108) (134) (151) (200) (251) (8,158) (11,247) (12,366) (16,482) (20,824) 2,017 2,054 2,602 3,304 4, (494) (446) (558) (905) (1,182) ,576 1,669 2,094 2,466 2,935 (504) (512) (649) (814) (969) (%) ,072 1,157 1,445 1,652 1,967 (26) (91) (221) (282) (350) 1,046 1,066 1,224 1,370 1,617 (%) (RMB) (%) 1.7 (10.0) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 10,187 13,140 14,968 19,786 24,857 (6,694) (9,647) (10,612) (14,136) (17,786) 3,493 3,493 4,356 5,650 7,071 (616) (757) (558) (905) (1,182) (554) (401) (649) (814) (969) 2,323 2,335 3,148 3,931 4, (80) (165) (2,775) (6,025) (12,600) (10,350) (6,300) (26) (37) (369) (437) (3,227) (6,647) (12,581) (10,325) (6,269) 1,837 2,029 10,080 7,245 4,410 (289) (316) (391) (428) (480) 1,595 3,897 9,689 6,817 3, (414) , , ,101 1,523 1, ,101 1,523 4, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 20,925 21,349 27,155 31,019 31,761 2,877 9,048 14,088 18,228 20,748 1,101 1,614 1,885 2,113 2,359 24,903 32,011 43,128 51,361 54, , ,101 1,523 4, ,050 1,263 1,422 1,879 2, , ,141 2,758 3,236 4,354 7,663 28,044 34,769 46,364 55,714 62, ,427 1,062 1,195 1,580 1,985 4,850 6,076 8,596 10,666 11, ,038 1,373 1, ,143 8,174 10,957 13,788 15, ,763 12,357 19,917 25,092 28, ,215 12,932 20,577 25,831 29,114 17,358 21,106 31,534 39,619 44,962 5,256 6,021 6,021 6,021 6,021 4,617 6,601 7,433 8,375 9,512 9,874 12,622 13,454 14,396 15, ,041 1,375 1,700 2,037 10,687 13,662 14,829 16,096 17,571 28,044 34,769 46,364 55,714 62, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) ( ) ( ) ( ) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x)

57 2380 HK$ % 16.8% NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 3, (4.7) A 4, (23.1) F 5, F 6,163 1, F 7,659 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,135.0 Major shareholder Market cap. (HK$ m) 8,542.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 6, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.000/2.375 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.8/(0.9)/1.9 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.2/(1.1)/(9.5) Bloomberg %-25.1% 25.1% 11.0% % 4.4% RMB/MWh Zhang Wenxian

58 Guotai Junan (HK) 2006 A % 60.82% % 16.8% % 9.3% % 4.4% 3%137.6MWh 137.6MWh % % 15% EPS % 18.5% 37% % 4.3% P/BV DCF NAV8% NAV 57 1% % 2.8% 1% % 4.8%

59 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,352 4,362 5,169 6,163 7, ,374 4,438 5,199 6,193 7,689 (1,826) (2,652) (2,960) (3,380) (4,200) (326) (320) (410) (500) (635) (262) (315) (373) (445) (553) (142) (184) (219) (261) (324) (51) (63) (75) (90) (111) (159) (204) (242) (288) (358) ,229 1,507 (77) (77) (117) (186) (326) ,191 1,336 (46) (82) (85) (179) (200) (17) ,014 1,119 (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,191 1,336 (151) (122) (137) (148) (156) (183) (160) (149) (183) (276) (152) 32 (26) (33) (49) (17) (151) (49) (61) (91) (14) (21) (82) (85) (179) (200) (3) ,061 1,283 1,493 (367) (1,085) (3,870) (3,500) (2,500) (600) (1,653) (967) (2,738) (3,870) (3,500) (2,500) 2, ,594 2,553 1,912 1,240 (165) (83) (248) (316) (375) 71 (314) ,115 1,197 2,305 1, ,943 (876) (504) (621) (142) 122 3,064 2,188 1,684 1,063 3,064 2,188 1,684 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,526 5,343 9,233 12,232 14, ,078 1, ,004 8,223 10,908 14,064 16, ,136 1, ,064 2,188 1,684 1, ,046 3,485 3,206 2,861 3,134 9,050 11,709 14,114 16,924 19, ,669 1,763 1,901 1,968 2,101 1,153 2,714 5,266 7,306 8,706 1,153 3,127 5,266 7,306 8, (468) (462) (439) 6,225 6,808 7,416 8,113 8,857 9,050 11,709 14,114 16,924 19, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (22.0) (%) (x) (x)

60 Guotai Junan (HK) James Dai , , ,412 1, (%) , , , EPS (%) 43.0 (18.7) , , , NAV n.a. n.a n.a. 6.6 n.a (1) 1-2(2)(3) (4)(1) 60% (2) %

61 20%20%0% 5%NAV 4-5 (1) (2) (3) (%) (%) Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen Suzhou Hangzhou Chengdu -5 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May NAV 5% NAV 2-7 (0688) (0604) (1207) YIELD 06 ROE NAV (HK$) 2006F 2007F 2008F 06 P/B 06 DPS (%) (%) (HK$) (%) REIT n.a. n.a Bloomberg

62 Guotai Junan (HK) 0029 HK$ % 60% 0654% NAV6.6NAV64% 5.0 NAV24% 111% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A n.a A F F (65.4) F Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 42.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) / 06 Net gearing (%) (2.6) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.350/1.150 Est. NAV (HK$) 6.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.4)/(11.2)/93.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.7)/(11.5)/81.7 Bloomberg % % % 06 9, % % , % % % % Dennis Yao James Dai

63 % 82.0% 51.5% % 7.3% 24.1% % 10.7% 24.4% % 100.0% 100.0% % 55.0% 24.7% % 34.5% 67.4% % 10.5% 8.0% % 100.0% 100.0% EPS NAV 64% 06 NBV NAV24% 111% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (337 ) (80 ) (120 ) (98 ) (12 ) (27) (26 ) (28 ) (38 ) (38 ) (2 ) (1 ) (5 ) (8 ) (8 ) (9) (11) (16) (23) (25) (3 ) (3 ) (4 ) (1 ) (2 ) (HK$) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (11) (7) (16) (23) (25) 0 0 (16 ) (189 ) (27 ) (1 ) (1 ) (174 ) 1 0 (220 ) (9 ) (9 ) (9 ) (9 ) (9 ) (7 ) (7 ) (5 ) (8 ) (8 ) (17 ) (17 ) 69 (18 ) 385 (167 ) (9 ) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,199 1, ,053 1,216 1, ,027 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 17.9% 36.9% 38.4% 53.8% 91.5% 12.0% 82.6% 93.7% 41.0% 69.1% 8.6% 72.6% 81.0% 25.9% 44.2% ROE 4.8% 11.7% 17.5% 5.5% 5.8% ROA 4.2% 7.9% 10.1% 4.6% 5.2% % 35.2% 44.7% 44.2% 40.1% Net Gearing 6.2% 15.4% (2.6% ) 14.2% 14.5% 34.8% 9.6% 10.7% 11.2% 7.5%

64 Guotai Junan (HK) 0405 HK$ % % NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2005A n.a F F F Shares in issue (m) 1,000.0 Major shareholder 32.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 3,050.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.775/2.850 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.5 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 1.7/(10.9)/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.0/(11.2)/n.a. Bloomberg % % 5% % % % (0823) (0808) 062.3% 7.1% (2778)06 7.2% 066.6% 40 NAV % NAV Dennis Yao James Dai

65 0588 HK$ A NAV 3.939% NAV41% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 2, (18.3) A 2, F 3, F 3, F 3, (6.5) Shares in issue (m) 1,867.0 Major shareholder 62.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 3,061.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 7, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.680/1.500 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (8.4)/(27.1)/3.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.8)/(27.7)/(8.0) Bloomberg / % 06 NAV 34% GFA90 5,000 / 5,000-6,0009,000 NAV A ,476 A IPO A 15 A NAV19-20% % NAV Holly Tao James Dai

66 Guotai Junan (HK) % EPS18% A06 07 EPS45% 42% NAV NAV58% NAV41%ANAV 27% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,343 2,871 3,298 3,920 3,250 (1,601 ) (2,070 ) (2,335 ) (2,823 ) (2,230 ) ,097 1,020 (133 ) (128 ) (113 ) (125 ) (128 ) (270 ) 296 (336 ) (353 ) (325 ) (120 ) (125 ) (168 ) (202 ) (188 ) (2 ) (10 ) (5 ) (12) (11 ) (280 ) (47 ) (65 ) (65) (65 ) ,588 7,083 7,570 5,438 4, ,115 7, (36 ) (249 ) 1,182 2, ,199 2, ,533 4, ,098 4,154 1,924 2, ,575 2, ,264 3, ,308 4, ,177 5, ,796 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT (420 ) (305 ) (67 ) (97 ) (300 ) 250 (250 ) (354 ) (841 ) , , ,667 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) Gearing (%) (3) (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) (x)

67 0604 HK$1.900 ROE 3.3 NAV15% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2, A 3, F 1, F 3, F 3, Shares in issue (m) 2,501.9 Major shareholder 55.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 4,753.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 25, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.90/0.92 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (13.6)/(20.0)/81.0 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (13.1)/(20.6)/69.9 Bloomberg % NAV 42%8 63% % 100 NAV 13% NAV 4%3 19% ,748 1,642 NAV8%05 75% NBV95% Holly Tao James Dai

68 Guotai Junan (HK) % 34 NAV % % %-40% 60% 5% ROE % 27% NAV NAV51%3.3 NAV15% (1) (2) (3) NAV NAV NAV/share Share of NAV (HK$ m) (HK$) (%) 7, , , , , , , x x (46.4) x x (400.5) (2.6) (0.0) (0.0) (210.0) 2, x Share of Market Capital 1, (669.0) (0.3) (6.8) 9,

69 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 68 2,000 3,003 1,972 3,302 3,363 (1,310) (1,844) (1,154) (2,075) (1,952) 690 1, ,227 1, (59) (66) (43) (73) (74) (341) (367) (394) (424) (457) (81) (70) (73) (75) (76) ,000 (115) (179) (189) (192) (247) ,097 1,288 (58) (152) (125) (168) (197) ,091 (289) (311) (87) (163) (104) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,097 1, (14 ) (122 ) (12 ) (12 ) (12 ) (65 ) 394 (270 ) (97 ) 56 (249 ) 10 (217 ) (226 ) (193 ) 734 1, ,295 1,758 (75 ) (99 ) (150 ) (150 ) (150 ) (703 ) (795 ) (125 ) (145 ) (177 ) (186 ) 441 (418 ) (307 ) (320 ) (963 ) (453 ) (694 ) (602 ) (647 ) 1,276 (644 ) 61 1,217 (288 ) (273 ) (346 ) (302 ) (383 ) (493 ) 0 0 (189 ) (192 ) (247 ) 1,028 (990 ) (430 ) 642 (1,028 ) (353 ) 1, ,580 3,385 3,509 3,155 4, ,385 3,509 3,155 4,490 4, (113) ,070 1,123 1,179 1,238 2,357 2,654 2,919 3,065 3,218 2,669 3,047 3,199 3,359 3,527 6,543 7,464 7,984 8,432 8, ,385 3,509 3,155 4,490 4,574 4,789 4,605 4,180 6,242 6,339 2,058 2,050 2,195 2,375 2, ,023 1, ,374 1, ,338 3,505 3,358 4,166 4,205 2,814 2,133 2,048 3,086 2, ,906 2,263 2,136 3,231 2,978 1,376 1,509 1,596 1,760 1, ,514 4,395 4,676 5,120 5, ,713 4,793 5,074 5,517 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F % % EBIT Margin % EBITDA Margin % EBIT% (4.6) (5.2) (2.5) (4.3) (4.1) Gearing % % ROE % ROA % ROCE % EV/EBITDA

70 Guotai Junan (HK) 0688 HK$ % % % 06 EPS6% 07 EPS11%40% 06 NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 5,308 1, A 6,971 1, F 12,317 2, F 16,676 3, F 19,467 3, (0.3) Shares in issue (m) 6,398.0 Major shareholder 51.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 25,591.9 Free float (%) Average vol.( 000) 33, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.050/1.420 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.6)/(15.8)/174.0 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.0)/(16.4)/162.9 Bloomberg EPS % 33% % % 2 26% % , % 50% Net gearing6 35% 06 NBV ROE19.8%17.2% NAV Holly Tao James Dai

71 06 EPS EPS6%-11% EPS5.8% 08 EPS10.6% NAV NAV % 99%NAV NAVNAV17% % NAV (1) 91570% (2) (sq.m) (%) 07 (sq.m) (%) , , , , , , , , B 179, , , , , , , , , , B 26, , B 55, ,046,481 62, , , , , , K2 138, G2 97, D , , , , , , , , , ,628,554

72 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,308 6,971 12,317 16,676 19,467 (3,459 ) (4,279 ) (7,325 ) (9,429 ) (11,264 ) (372 ) (594 ) (893 ) (1,027 ) (1,019 ) 1,476 2,098 4,099 6,219 7, (161 ) (197 ) (341 ) (461 ) (538 ) (347 ) (434 ) (714 ) (917 ) (1,032 ) ,435 2,259 3,255 5,127 5,948 (18 ) (6 ) (6 ) (7 ) (9 ) (156 ) (250 ) (430 ) (403 ) (414 ) 1,278 2,048 3,230 5,069 5,556 (202 ) (407 ) (646 ) (1,267 ) (1,389 ) 1,151 1,673 2,584 3,802 4,167 (78 ) (139 ) (199 ) (137 ) (297 ) 1,074 1,535 2,384 3,665 3, ,082 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT 1,435 2,259 3,255 5,127 5, (81 ) (27 ) (3,330 ) (3,452 ) (6,478 ) (5,064 ) 66 (208 ) 483 (4,561 ) (2,954 ) (1,863 ) (215 ) (284 ) (646 ) (1,267 ) (1,389 ) 1,652 (753 ) 7,466 9,852 3,918 (845 ) (1,658 ) (396 ) 6,228 6,905 (410 ) (256 ) (333 ) (295 ) (314 ) (188 ) (1,958 ) 702 (521 ) (254 ) (10 ) (174 ) (224 ) (410 ) (543 ) (550 ) 2, ,000 (700 ) 1,000 (319 ) (447 ) (448 ) (577 ) (1,082 ) (83 ) 1,882 (199 ) (137 ) (297 ) 3,191 1,493 4,943 (1,956 ) (929 ) ,026 4,018 5,966 2,183 2,571 3,126 7,152 11,170 2,571 3,126 7,152 11,170 17,136 1,833 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,572 1,197 1,214 1,384 1,490 1, , ,666 1,690 2,101 2,454 2,485 6,943 5,858 6,207 6,271 6, ,859 13,610 20,088 25,152 25, ,514 1,000 1,677 1,476 1, ,618 3,148 7,152 11,170 17,136 14,466 19,284 30,715 39,792 45,830 2,901 2,868 4,561 6,051 6,923 1,984 2,187 4,120 5,602 6, ,806 1,922 3,933 3,233 3,233 7,318 7,568 13,224 15,519 17,285 6,336 10,489 14,273 16,336 14,642 3,059 3,279 7,268 7,268 8, ,519 6,794 10,782 10,782 11,782 (498 ) (302 ) (103 ) ,434 10,443 12,379 19,006 21,794 10,071 11,083 13,019 19,727 22, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) EBIT (x) Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

73 1207 HK$ % % NAV NAV52% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A (4.3) A 1, F 2, F 2, F 2, (19.2) Shares in issue (m) 1,846.7 Major shareholder Good Times 48% Market cap. (HK$ m) 2,548.4 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 14, / 06 Net gearing (%) (0.3) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.100/0.750 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.1)/(13.8)/70.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.8)/(14.0)/59.0 Bloomberg % %1,108 37% % % % % % % Dennis Yao James Dai

74 Guotai Junan (HK) % % 49, , % 36.8% 32, , % 16.0% 20, , % 25.5% 58, , % 4.9% 100% 173, ,021, % % 100, , % 13.3% 9, , % 3.8% 14, , % 21.1% 30, , % 7.8% 18, , % 20.2% 60, , % 100.0% 171, ,225, % % 100, , % 10.6% 18, , % 43.1% 100, , % 100.0% 218, ,627, % 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 84.5% 97.6% 85.4% 80.9% 72.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 6.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.2% 5.1% 10.9% 21.8% 15.4% 6.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% % % , % 85.4% 82.8% % 7.6% 8.4% % 5.1% 7.1% % 1.9% 1.8% 2, % 100.0% 100.0%

75 NAV NAV NAV52% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 601 1,379 2,367 2,752 2,261 (465 ) (951 ) (1,195 ) (1,596 ) (1,342 ) ,172 1, ,978 47,537 70,999 82,560 67,834 (34) (29 ) (49 ) (57 ) (47 ) (50) (72 ) (123 ) (143 ) (118 ) (1) (33 ) (104 ) (90 ) (90 ) (24) (131 ) (293 ) (321 ) (260 ) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (40) (68 ) (104 ) (90 ) (90 ) (48) (87 ) (293 ) (321 ) (260 ) 0 0 (443 ) (31 ) (30 ) (4 ) (5 ) (5 ) (5 ) (127 ) (295 ) (288 ) (244 ) (163 ) (498 ) (533 ) (5 ) (5 ) (5 ) , (431 ) (22 ) (34 ) (33 ) (26 ) (22) (16 ) (89 ) (98 ) (79 ) ,006 (130 ) (105 ) , (142 ) ,376 2,450 2, ,376 2,450 2,805 2, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,103 1,674 1,690 1,703 1, ,294 1,544 1,666 1, ,396 2,450 2,805 2, ,068 1,238 1,022 3,447 4,409 6,021 6,188 4, ,560 1,560 1, ,037 1,169 1,964 1,964 1, ,712 1,997 2,198 1, ,384 3,289 3,615 3,152 1,382 1,129 1,625 2,131 2,775 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 22.7% 31.1% 49.5% 42.0% 40.7% 10.9% 27.3% 39.2% 31.7% 30.4% 15.0% 21.8% 18.9% 17.8% 17.5% ROE 9.0% 24.6% 25.0% 17.2% 9.9% ROA 1.4% 6.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.3% ROCE 4.8% 21.9% 44.1% 38.5% 24.9% % 73.3% 72.4% 64.8% 50.2% Net Gearing 23.0% 37.2% (0.3% ) (12.6%) (5.5% ) 13.2% 22.7% 30.7% 34.9% 33.9%

76 Guotai Junan (HK) 2868 HK$ NAV50% ( SZ) 9 70% 30% ,500 / % 05 68%70% Net gearing109%139% (688) (604) A-Z Town 4 NAV % NAV48% NAV30-50% 2.2 NAV50% Holly Tao

77 3383 HK$ % 5, NAV NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 2, , A 5, (64.7) F 9,163 1, F 10,273 1, F 11,300 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,456.3 Major shareholder Top Coast 68.3% Market cap. (HK$ m) 13,479.4 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 21, Net gearing (%) (99.2) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.950/3.650 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (20.8)/(25.0)/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (20.5)/(25.2)/n.a. Bloomberg % 35% % 08 50% , , % 5, ,600 Dennis Yao James Dai

78 Guotai Junan (HK) 0653% % % 12% NAV NAV NAV A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,549 5,371 9,163 10,273 11,300 (1,901 ) (3,632 ) (6,371 ) (7,151 ) (7,866 ) 648 1,739 2,793 3,121 3, (188 ) (217 ) (367 ) (411 ) (452 ) (98 ) (99 ) (165 ) (185 ) (203 ) 367 1,468 2,246 2,508 2,759 (17 ) (10 ) (13 ) (12) (12 ) 350 1,458 2,233 2,496 2,747 (119 ) (475 ) (726 ) (811 ) (893 ) ,507 1,685 1, ,500 1,677 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,829 2,437 2,016 1, ,127 1,870 2,858 3, ,101 1,649 1,849 2,034 1, ,374 1,541 1, ,205 6,111 7,755 9,759 6,129 9,620 13,578 16,292 15, ,510 5,611 6,653 7, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 367 1,468 2,246 2,508 2, (261 ) (662 ) (521 ) 746 (1,144 ) (33 ) ,496 1,988 2,383 (9 ) (31 ) (300 ) (20) (20 ) (300 ) (20) (20 ) IPO 0 3, (602 ) (131 ) (391 ) (300 ) (335 ) (369 ) (1,198 ) 2,313 (289 ) (325 ) (359 ) 79 4,035 1,906 1,643 2, ,205 6,111 7, ,205 6,111 7,755 9,759 1, ,899 3,472 5,352 7,024 5, ,401 5,110 6,656 8,328 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ROE 39.4% 37.4% 29.7% 27.4% 25.6% ROA 3.8% 12.5% 13.0% 11.3% 11.6% 25.4% 32.4% 30.5% 30.4% 30.4% 14.4% 27.3% 24.5% 24.4% 24.4% 8.9% 18.2% 16.4% 16.3% 16.3% 88.1% 53.1% 49.0% 51.1% 41.4%

79 James Dai 2005 (1) % 12.8% 23.3% (2) Yoy Yoy Yoy EPS Yoy (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) , , , , , , , , , , , , (434 ) n.a (0.324 ) 27, A QDII A 103.3% 05 A 5-10%10% % % 8% A10% 7% % 2 9% 0.1 5% 5% % 5% 3 7% 9 12% %

80 Guotai Junan (HK) 15% % % GDP8% 15% 042.6% % % 05 7%051.6% 44% % 28.9% 131.1%13.6% % % % % Q M Q M2006 3, , , , (yoy %) (yoy %) , (yoy %) (yoy %) (%) % 49.3% 48.3% (yoy %) (yoy %) (%) % 10.3% 10.2% (yoy %) (yoy %) (%) % 1.2% 1.2% (yoy %) (71.6) (62.1) (yoy %) (%) % 1.3% 1.4% 5 7-8% % % 7-8% 8

81 2004 (2328) %5 48.3% Price 05 ROE 05 ROA 05 P/E 06 P/E 07 P/E 05 P/B (%) (%) 80 PING AN CHINA LIFE CIGNA GREAT-WEST LINCOLN NATL MANULIFE PRINCIPAL SUN LIFE AIG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA CATHAY LIFE n.a. n.a PICC MITSUI SUMITOMO 1, n.a SOMPO JAPAN 1, n.a SAMSUNG FIRE 122, WR BERKLEY CHUBB INSURANCE AUSTRA PROGRESSIVE MILLEA HOLDINGS 2,030, n.a. n.a bloomberg % DPS 06 yield 06 ROE (HK$) 06 P/E 07 P/E 08 P/E 06 P/B (HK$) (%) (%) (HK$) (%) (7.9) n.a. (0.9) Bloomberg

82 Guotai Junan (HK) 0966 HK$ % 3, /3 5.4 NAV10% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 7,308 (23) (0.017) n.a. n.a (0.9) 2005A 8,612 (434) (0.324) n.a. n.a (16.8) 2006F 11, n.a F 14, F 17, Shares in issue (m) 1,338.9 Major shareholder 54.3% Market cap. (HK$ m) 6,426.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 3, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.450/2.425 Est. NAV (HK$) 6.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 9.7/20.8/68.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 10.3/20.2/ Bloomberg %2.65 3,600 96% % % %06 3, % % %10.2% % 04 9, ,413 3, % % % James Dai

83 40.0% %10.8% 1.2% % 05A , 86% 4.2% % % 054.3% A % / %54.2 2/ NAV10% % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 7,308 8,612 11,793 14,548 17,600 7,091 8,344 11,203 13,700 16,466 (49) (126) (9) (9) (10) 7,041 8,218 11,194 13,691 16, ,497 1,692 2, ,572 8,993 12,674 15,363 18,582 (1,007) (1,423) (2,003) (2,133) (2,528) (652) (809) (1,052) (1,259) (1,486) (679) (1,180) (1,354) (1,576) (1,804) (28) (250) (5,326) (5,785) (7,972) (9,790) (11,843) (121) (454) (36) (49) (85) (129) (137) (131) (134) (242) (631) (12) (44) (77) (189) (595) (140) (271) (23) (434) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 16,555 27,334 33,374 44,328 56, ,762 25,627 31,759 42,635 55,112 13,916 23,911 30,120 40,690 52, ,390 15,454 23,194 32,974 44,808 2,642 2,507 2,349 2,593 2, ,576 2,440 2,283 2,526 2, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EPS (0.017) (0.324) EPS YOY % (116.3) 1,793.0 (135.8) DPS bvps P/E(X) n.a. (14.8) P/B(X) yield (%) ROE (%) (0.9) (16.8)

84 Guotai Junan (HK) 2318 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 63,193 3, A 64,590 4, F 72,797 5, F 78,312 6, F 85,763 8, Shares in issue (m) 6,195.1 Major shareholder HSBC 19.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 131,335.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 9, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. AVPS (HK$) 22.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.1)/9.0/70.3 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.5)/8.4/59.2 Bloomberg % 6.5% % 06 7% 83% % 80% 60% 40% 20% 9,864 10,562 34,616 8,114 7,054 1,133 5,836 35, ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,351 4, ,545 6, ,044 7,497 0% 2003A 2004A 2005A A 2004A 2005A James Dai

85 % % 95.3% % % 10.2% ,01122% , % % 5.8% A 20% 4.7% 054.0% 0636% (%) % % 3% 60% % %

86 Guotai Junan (HK) EVPS AVPS EPS 0.07 PER RMB 23.0 HK$ 22.3 A A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 60,033 59,021 63,543 68,400 73,515 (4,122 ) (4,241 ) (5,082 ) (5,349 ) (5,672 ) 55,911 54,780 58,461 63,050 67,843 (1,191 ) (1,581 ) (950 ) (939 ) (819 ) 54,720 53,199 57,512 62,112 67,024 1,376 1,371 1,636 1,691 1,810 7,097 10,020 13,649 14,509 16,929 63,193 64,590 72,797 78,312 85,763 2,261 3,830 4,253 2,965 3,187 (16,465 ) (20,646 ) (25,262 ) (26,380 ) (29,060 ) (33,872 ) (29,557 ) (30,909 ) (32,700 ) (35,004 ) (5,255 ) (5,928 ) (6,453 ) (5,720 ) (6,152 ) (5,922 ) (7,090 ) (7,481 ) (7,972 ) (8,397 ) (106 ) (209 ) (168 ) (183 ) (196 ) (59,445 ) (59,778 ) (66,495 ) (70,642 ) (76,474 ) 3,748 4,812 6,302 7,670 9,289 (601 ) (547 ) (767 ) (980 ) (1,204 ) 3,147 4,265 5,535 6,690 8,085 (30 ) (39 ) (51 ) (61) (74 ) 3,117 4,226 5,485 6,629 8, ,239 1,645 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 201, , , , ,682 12,903 15,898 21,076 28,255 37, , , , , ,799 28,197 32,996 35,396 40,379 46, , , , , ,151 12,903 15,898 21,076 28,255 37, , , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. EPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) EVPS (RMB) AVPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) P/E (X) P/B (X) P/EV (X) P/AV (X) YIELD (%)

87 2328 HK$ % 05 A Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 62, (90.8) A 62,332 1, F 65,449 2, F 68,721 1, (20.5) F 72,157 1, (2.0) Shares in issue (m) 11,141.8 Major shareholder 69.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 28,690.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 14, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.525/1.71 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.1/4.0/29.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.7/3.5/18.3 Bloomberg % % % %40-50% % 96.5% % 17.7 A A06 5 A 1, % % ,600 32%5.0% % James Dai

88 Guotai Junan (HK) % 5.4%0434.3% % A % 70% % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 87 62,003 62,332 65,449 68,721 72,157 50,628 49,802 51,181 53,293 55,957 (39,015 ) (36,335 ) (37,272 ) (39,221 ) (41,497 ) (3,560 ) (4,792 ) (4,974 ) (5,231 ) (5,547 ) (7,054 ) (6,372 ) (6,751 ) (6,983 ) (7,214 ) 436 1,766 1,661 1,308 1,122 1,326 1,478 1,558 1,573 1,614 (988 ) (336 ) 1, (15 ) (305 ) (229 ) (172 ) (129 ) 395 2,203 3,764 2,954 2,902 (261 ) (1,090 ) (1,376 ) (1,054 ) (1,040 ) 134 1,113 2,388 1,899 1,862 51,125 51,810 52,272 53,453 55,414 11,914 12,332 11,909 11,663 11,421 27,718 29,238 29,116 30,270 31,398 90,757 93,380 93,297 95,386 98,233 52,620 54,533 55,176 56,987 59,398 8,786 8,449 8,618 8,790 8,966 11,198 11,562 10,915 9,505 8,183 72,604 74,544 74,709 75,282 76,547 16,153 16,836 18,588 20,103 21, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) 25.3 (1.6 ) (%) (70.9 ) (6.0 ) (21.2 ) (14.2 ) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) ,142 2,672 2,165 2,257 51,125 51,810 52,272 53,453 55,414 49,275 51,468 52,041 52,862 54,434 (%) EPS (RMB) yoy (%) (90.8 ) (20.5 ) (2.0 ) DPS (RMB) (%) (RMB) P/E (X) P/B (X)

89 2628 HK$ % 20% A Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 76,806 7, (5.9) A 98,212 9, F 119,259 13, F 132,501 14, F 150,948 18, Shares in issue (m) 26,764.7 Major shareholder 72.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 291,735.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 109, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 13.05/5.15 Est. AVPS (HK$) 10.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.7)/13.5/105.7 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.1)/13.0/94.6 Bloomberg % 91% % % % 06 16% % 12.5% 40,000 35,000 30,000 22,576 21,071 25,000 13,250 17,012 20,000 6,900 8,714 11,112 12,546 15,000 10,000 5,000 9,992 8,325 6,066 7,439 12,565 7,630 11,061 9, % 0 1H2002 2H2002 1H2003 2H2003 1H2004 2H2004 1H2005 2H2005 James Dai

90 Guotai Junan (HK) 20% 10%06 15% % % % A % 10% % 10% 3% A 103.3% 055%1 9%7% A 064.6%06 20%40620% 1, % 05 48% % A % 9% A 2006F 70,143 83,361 (VIF) 37,164 43,811 (Unwind of VIF) 5,135 5,038 7,490 8,429 43,811 43,127 (EMBEDDED VALUE) 113, ,488 7,490 8, , ,734 (APPRAISAL VALUE) 254, ,397 (AVPS,RMB) (hk$) (EVPS,RMB) (hk$)

91 % % % ROE10% 10% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 88,737 85,946 92,414 99, ,901 65,008 80,038 92, , ,077 11,317 16,685 25,434 26,136 31,505 (237 ) (510 ) (180 ) (208 ) (125 ) (1,061 ) ,779 1,739 1,652 1,569 1,491 76,806 98, , , ,948 (42,299 ) (54,029 ) (64,926 ) (73,152 ) (82,445 ) (616 ) (973 ) (1,073 ) (1,279 ) (1,500 ) (7,793 ) (8,521 ) (9,512 ) (9,975 ) (10,627 ) (2,048 ) (5,359 ) (7,538 ) (8,369 ) (9,136 ) (6,263 ) (7,766 ) (8,885 ) (10,548 ) (12,442 ) (1,472 ) (1,845 ) (2,113 ) (2,402 ) (2,714 ) (6,585 ) (7,237 ) (7,711 ) (8,273 ) (8,606 ) (67,303 ) (86,702 ) (102,862 ) (115,212 ) (128,800 ) ) 9,503 11,510 16,396 17,289 22,149 (2,280 ) (2,145 ) (3,188 ) (2,869 ) (3,869 ) ) 7,223 9,365 13,208 14,420 18,279 ) 7,171 9,306 13,125 14,329 18, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 374, , , , , , , , , ,222 17,271 39,548 47,485 56,932 67, , , , , , ,074 2,353 3,770 27,217 28,051 29,678 28,466 42,127 58,781 64,863 77,177 86,927 99, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,074 66,530 80,378 84,989 86,741 92, , , , , , , , , , ,298 (367,141 ) (478,841 ) (585,754 ) (711,840 ) (849,984 ) 54,456 80,378 84,989 86,741 92,314 37,192 60,533 60,220 56,891 56,957 % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 327, , , , , % 3.8% 4.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.1% 3.8% 4.6% 4.0% 4.0% 12 (%) 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (3.1 ) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) EVPS (RMB) AVPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) P/E (X) P/B (X) P/EV (X) P/AV (X) YIELD (%)

92 Guotai Junan (HK) 91 Alan Lam (0670) (1055) % 22.7%(1110) (0293)(0753) % (0753) % (0694) (0696) 26.1% 18.9% % 6.3% 16.3% 4.9% %-40% (0670) 11.5% (0293) % 14% % % 6, % % 5%-10% 4 50% %0.3%

93 % 630% 15%-70% % 26% 23% % 100% 25% % EV/EBITDA P/BV 1.20P/BV

94 Guotai Junan (HK) % 12 6% % 5.50 (0753) A P/BV 1.19 P/BV P/BV 1.1 (1110) P/BV 1.6 2% (0694) P/BV % P/BV % 18% 50 A P/BV % P/BV 0.8

95 EV/EBITDA 06 P/B 06 (HK$) X X X X X (RMB) % n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a Bloomberg (0670) Turnover EBITDA Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) A 21,387 3, n.a A 27,454 3,951 (467) (0.096) n.a. n.a (7.3) 2006F 33,793 5,370 (877) (0.180) 87.6 n.a (16.2) 2007F 36,689 7,073 (371) (0.076) (57.7) n.a (8.3) 2008F 42,016 8, n.a Shares in issue (m) 4,867.0 Major shareholder 61.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 5,256.3 Free float (%) 38.4% 3 Average vol. ( 000) 9, / 06 Net gearing (%) /06 06 P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) / 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 1.440/ Return on assets (%) (1.4) Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.6)/(15.6)/(22.3) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.2)/(15.9)/(33.7) : (1055) Turnover EBITDA Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 23,974 3,322 (48) (0.011) (86.6) n.a (0.4) 2005A 38,293 3,135 (1,848) (0.422) n.a (16.9) 2006F 43,335 3,669 (1,471) (0.336) (20.4) n.a (15.9) 2007F 48,640 5,674 (532) (0.122) (63.9) n.a (6.4) 2008F 54,895 6,945 (233) (0.053) (56.2) n.a (3.0) Shares in issue (m) 4,374.2 Major shareholder 50.3% Market cap. (HK$ m) 7,523.6 Free float (%) 49.7% 3 Average vol. ( 000) 7, / 06 Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.700/ Return on assets (%) (1.9) Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (14.0)/(24.4)/(34.5) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (13.6)/(24.6)/(45.9) :

96 Guotai Junan (HK) 0694 HK$ Net revenue Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 3, A 2, F 3,180 1, F 3,677 1, F 4,736 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,846.2 Major shareholder 65.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 17,211.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 6, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.650/2.925 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.3)/6.5/49.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.9)/6.3/37.8 Bloomberg (0694) % 1, % % % 12.5% %(0753) (0293) % 1 10% 1, Alan Lam

97 % % % 60% 60% % AH1.8% % 5 18% 12 6% % A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,984 3,180 3,677 4,736 1,318 1,562 1,787 2, (10) (21) (188) ,342 1,553 1,766 2,210 (427) (509) (562) (726) 916 1,044 1,204 1,484 (7) ,044 1,204 1, (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,966 1,813 2,191 3,001 (7) (10) (21) (188) (365) (443) (473) (550) (10) (381) (452) (494) (739) (329) (509) (562) (726) (1,929) (117) (3,400) (3,900) (48) (1,978) (68) (3,400) (3,900) ,250 3,000 (1) ,250 3,000 (673) 1,033 (1,015) 636 1, , , ,311 8,512 8,108 10,968 14, ,627 1,199 1,286 1, , , ,862 11,001 12,932 17,047 1, ,550 4, ,671 2,209 3,408 6, ,188 8,789 9,521 10,454 3,846 3,846 3,846 3,846 4,342 4,943 5,674 6,608 8,188 8,789 9,521 10, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

98 Guotai Junan (HK) A 0753 HK$2.975 A Turnover EBITDA Net profit EPS* EPS PER EV/EBITDA DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 33,521 7,949 2, A 38,291 8,186 2, (28.2) F 43,735 7,387 2, (12.1) F 48,576 8,271 2, (25.8) F 54,360 10,129 3, Shares in issue (m) 9,433.2 Major shareholder 65.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 28,063.8 Free float (%) 24.2% 3 Average vol. ( 000) 19, Net gearing (%)* P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$)* Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.675/ Return on assets (%)* 2.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.0)/2.6/11.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.7)/2.3/(0.2) * 06 A Bloomberg %(0753) (0293) (0019) (0267) 10.16% % 20% % (1110)17.5% %A %-15% Alan Lam

99 98 AA % 20 A %-12% %-26%1 21% % % 06 30% % 065, % % 26% 23% P/BV 1.19 P/BV P/BV A P/BV 1.1

100 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 38,291 43,735 48,576 54,360 8,186 7,387 8,271 10,129 3,674 2,276 2,614 3, ,034 1,203 (524) (1,110) (933) (1,265) 0 2, ,374 3,677 2,715 3,863 (904) (1,194) (435) (707) 2,470 2,483 2,280 3,157 (64) (71) (64) (49) 2,406 2,412 2,216 3, (%) (28.2) (12.1) (25.8) A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ,405 58,626 66,837 77,557 7,453 8,442 9,723 11,094 (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 47,191 54,517 58,071 61,079 3,794 9,288 9,805 10,407 9,677 9,233 9,023 9, ,764 4,425 3,560 5, ,346 2,877 1,590 1,877 1,402 5,869 2,066 6,661 68,202 87,279 85,230 95,673 9,098 15,886 11,372 18,564 12,358 9,555 9,555 9,291 2,091 2,300 2,487 2,710 20,902 21,259 21,599 22, (166) (392) 46,651 51,332 47,335 55,088 1,458 1,529 1,593 1,642 20,092 34,418 36,302 38,943 9,433 13,312 13,312 13,312 10,659 21,106 22,989 25,631 20,092 34,418 36,302 38, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (379) (797) (225) (795) (8,608) (12,438) (9,211) (9,211) (3,893) (5,008) (12,500) (17,446) (8,672) (8,609) (766) 10,428 1, (7,219) (233) (1,287) ,413 2,248 2, ,248 2, , ,346 2,877 1,590 1, % 17% 11.1% 53.5% 4% 34% 7.7% 5% 13.3% 10% 5.9% 4% 13% 13%

101 HK$ % Net revenue Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 1, n.a A 2, (37.7) F 2,588 2, , F 3, (91.8) F 5, Shares in issue (m) 3,312.7 Major shareholder 68.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 8,944.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 12, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.750/1.300 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 56.1/40.6/30.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 56.4/40.4/18.7 Bloomberg (1110)43.29% (0293)82.2 (0019) 100% % 7.34% P/BV % (0753) % P/BV % % 36.5% Alan Lam

102 Guotai Junan (HK) 51% P/BV 1.6 2% (0694) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,687 2,610 3,347 5,560 (2,739) (2,553) (3,218) (5,320) (52) (1.9%) 2.2% 3.9% 4.3% 277 3, , , (10) (698) (193) (189) 212 2, (40) (76) (136) 225 2, (37.7%) % (91.8%) 46.7% 2006F (0293) 7.34% , % 15.0x 1, % 1.0x % 2.0x % 15.0x 1, % 1.0x % 15.0x % 15.0x 191 1,174 9,

103 James Dai % % % 14.4% GDP 9.5% A2, % 10% GDP %6% % (19.9%) 50% % 5% WTO 24% %24% H1, % 22H

104 Guotai Junan (HK) 15%150H Q2004-1Q2006yoy % 1Q2004 2Q2004 3Q2004 4Q2004 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 GDP NPL GDP 6% 050.1% % % (%) 9.00 (%) M05 6M05 9M05 12M05 3M Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar % % %

105 2000 % Q (0.20) % % 16.4% % 111 8% P/E 07 P/E 08 P/E 05 P/B 06 P/B 06 ROE 06 DPS 06 yield (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (HK$) (%) (HK$) (%) (7.3) n.a Bloomberg

106 Guotai Junan (HK) Price 05 yield (%) 2005A 2006F 2007F 05 P/B 05 ROE (%) 05 ROA (%) CREDIT AGRICOLE BARCLAYS BANK OF MONTREAL BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA CITIGROUP COMMERZBANK n.a CAN IMPL BK COMM (1.7) (0.06) DEUTSCHE BANK 85.2 n.a SOC GENERALE n.a HBOS HSBC JPMORGAN CHASE LLOYDS TSB GROUP ROYAL BK SCOTLAN 1, ROYAL BK CANADA STANDARD CHARTER 1, TORONTO-DOM BANK BANK OF AMERICA bloomberg Price 05 yield(%) 2005A 2006F 2007F 05 P/B 05 ROE (%) 05 ROA (%) n.a. n.a (55.0) (2.8) n.a (4.1) (0.2) BANGKOK BANK 98.0 n.a HDFC BANK LTD ICICI BANK LTD KASIKORNBANK 56.0 n.a KRUNG THAI BANK 9.9 n.a PUNJAB NATL BANK bloomberg Price (HK$) 05 yield(%) 2005A 2006F 2007F 05 P/B 05 ROE(%) 05 ROA(%) n.a bloomberg

107 0183 HK$ % 06 5% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2, A 1,971 1, F 2,097 1, (17.7) F 2,223 1, F 2,292 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,201.3 Major shareholder 56.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 13,445.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 20, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.00/2.775 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.5)/20.9/36.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.9)/20.3/25.5 Bloomberg % % 1, ,600 1, ,200 1, A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 0.0 James Dai

108 Guotai Junan (HK) , % 8.2% (ROE) 13.3% 15% % 40% 06 5% % 12% % 5% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 70,297 73,425 76,948 79,988 82, ,474 1,099 1,231 1,320 1, ,155 1,971 2,097 2,223 2,292 (1,117) (1,095) (1,133) (1,178) (1,215) 1, ,045 1,077 (78) 58 (82) (49) (44) ,033 1,055 1,216 1,360 1,902 2,106 (151) (112) (219) (315) (351) 0 0 (1) (1) (1) 904 1,103 1,140 1,586 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EPS (HK$) BVPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 43,323 44,108 46,314 47,703 48,657 70,297 73,425 76,948 79,988 82,483 83,577 85,037 94,829 97, ,840 55,452 54,415 57,136 59,421 61,798 75,255 75,581 79,491 81,301 83,831 3,194 3,198 4,824 4,824 4,824 5,128 6,257 10,512 11,305 12,182 8,322 9,455 15,336 16,129 17,006 4,276 4,352 4,363 4,370 2,193 % 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,884 1,171 1,209 1,232 1,255 (%) (%) (%) (5.6) (25.4) (0.6) (15.6) EPS (17.7) (%) (51.9) (55.5) (54.0) (53.0) (53.0) (%) CAR

109 0349 HK$ % P/E P/B 1.4 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 1, A 2, F 2,180 1, F 2,386 1, F 2,570 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,121.3 Major shareholder 59.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) 12,614.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 2, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 12.45/9.35 Est. NAV (HK$) 13.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.7/(3.4)/17.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 3.3/(4.0)/6.1 Bloomberg % % % % % % James Dai

110 Guotai Junan (HK) 067% 06 12% 1, % 9.0% 14.3 HIBOR % % % 7% %0.9% , % % P/B % P/E P/B P/E P/B A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,275 1,316 1,434 1,587 1, ,645 2,033 2,180 2,386 2,570 (690) (890) (926) (963) (1,001) (55) ,143 1,254 1,423 1, (6) (29) (41) (26) 923 1,136 1,224 1,382 1, ,208 1,284 1,440 1,590 (176) (227) (225) (252) (278) ,059 1,188 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EPS (HK$) BVPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) EPS (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) (x) (%) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 19,658 27,787 28,898 30,054 31,256 59,501 68,153 73,605 78,021 82,702 61,367 67,676 73,110 77,493 82,157 99, , , , ,113 73,578 86,086 92, , ,085 85, , , , ,304 13,890 15,209 15,658 16,210 16,809 87, , , , ,171 % 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F NPL (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) CAR CAR )

111 0939 HK$ % 2.64% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 113,467 49, A 130,020 47, (9.2) F 146,352 45, (13.6) F 163,078 51, F 181,516 62, Shares in issue (m) 224,689.1 Major shareholder 61.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 747,091.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 366, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.85/2.30 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 0.8/(6.3)/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 1.3/(6.9)/n.a. Bloomberg % 12% % GDP 20% 059.2% 10.1% 23.5% 20% 1 ROA % 2.64% % 2.78% % % % 2.64% % % 3.8% % 3.03%62% 69% James Dai

112 Guotai Junan (HK) 06 3% % % 11% %051.1% % % % % % % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 147, , , , ,404 (45,708 ) (57,050 ) (62,100 ) (70,247 ) (78,395 ) 101, , , , ,010 7,352 9,261 11,398 13,383 15,191 (881 ) (806 ) (972 ) (1,119 ) (1,244 ) 6,471 8,455 10,426 12,264 13, ,701 1,927 2,600 2,700 3, (1,306 ) (2,435 ) (4,865 ) 1,270 1,724 2,086 2,524 3,054 3, , , , , ,786 (9,358 ) (15,258 ) (17,673 ) (18,377 ) (20,970 ) (53,419 ) (58,092 ) (61,739 ) (66,716 ) (73,185 ) (62,777 ) (73,350 ) (79,412 ) (85,094 ) (94,154 ) 51,199 55,364 64,506 73,120 88,632 (2,159 ) (8,268 ) (18,688 ) (21,300 ) (26,126 ) 49,040 47,096 45,818 51,819 62, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 399, , , , , , , , , ,894 2,173,562 2,395,313 2,752,954 3,117,695 3,481,076 1,107,636 1,413,871 1,535,934 1,652,198 1,802,492 3,909,920 4,585,742 5,194,672 5,777,023 6,398, , , , , ,159 3,491,121 4,006,046 4,604,731 5,179,972 5,792,704 39,896 39,907 39,711 39,515 39,515 3,714,369 4,298,065 4,885,301 5,436,750 6,020, , , , , , , , , , ,787 3,608,698 4,194,736 4,852,639 5,459,341 6,073,289 2,058,461 2,284,438 2,574,133 2,935,325 3,299,386 3,343,397 3,748,584 4,305,388 4,892,351 5,486,338 3,733,493 4,247,831 4,890,207 5,485,848 6,087, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 87,380 94, , , ,072 (%) LLS/NPL % (%) (2.6) 13.8 (0.0) (4.0) (2.7) (%) (%) (%) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F CAR TIER-1 (%) CAR (%) EPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) EPS (%) (9.2) (13.6) ROE (%) ROA (%) (x) (x) (%)

113 2388 HK$14.80 HIBOR % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 15,857 11, A 17,896 13, F 19,326 11, (14.6) F 20,132 10, (5.3) F 20,892 11, Shares in issue (m) 10,572.8 Major shareholder 66.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 156,477.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 33, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 16.95/14.15 Est. NAV (HK$) 17.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.0)/(5.4)/1.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.4)/(6.0)/(9.7) Bloomberg HIBOR HIBOR % % % 06 8% 5.5% % ,942 12,874 12,617 13,580 15,000 20, , ,000 10, , , , A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F A 2003A 2004A 2005A James Dai

114 Guotai Junan (HK) 0615% % 2003 IPO % 31% % % 111 8% % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,193 12,874 13,580 14,008 14,305 4,664 5,022 5,746 6,124 6,587 15,857 17,896 19,326 20,132 20,892 (5,505) (5,730) (6,052) (6,298) (6,527) 10,352 12,166 13,274 13,834 14,364 1,628 2,645 (169) (860) (1,041) 11,980 14,811 13,105 12,974 13, , (98) ,531 16,368 14,005 13,274 13,424 (2,131) (2,710) (2,311) (2,190) (2,215) (158) (164) (170) (175) (174) 7,559 8,543 7,260 6,873 6,952 11,242 13,494 11,524 10,909 11, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (13.1) (2.7) (14.6) (5.3) CAR , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,362 68,521 79,435 82,416 86,065 90, , , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 9,239 4,263 4,360 5,178 5,943 (%) (LLS/NPL)(%) (%) (%) EPS (HK$) BVPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) EPS (%) (14.6) (5.3) 1.2 ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) (x) (%)

115 3328 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 27,957 1, (76.3) A 35,153 9, F 43,354 12, F 49,612 14, F 55,753 17, Shares in issue (m) 45,804.0 Major shareholder 21.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 217,569.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 93, Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.400/2.725 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.6)/(3.1)/69.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.0)/(3.7)/58.6 Bloomberg %6% % 07 8% %4% 18.0% James Dai

116 Guotai Junan (HK) 100 (1) 2, (2) 1.5% (3) 45.4% % 20% 10.4% 10.9% % % 16% 2.51% % 5.7% % % % % % ROE % 10% ROE % 14% % 14% % 14% ROA 0.82% 0.81% ROE 14.5% 15.1% %

117 % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,352 49,680 60,873 70,106 79,257 (13,160) (18,089) (22,035) (25,883) (29,874) 25,192 31,591 38,838 44,223 49,383 1,675 2,109 2,425 2,903 3, ,130 1, ,029 1,229 (3,215) (4,298) (4,726) (6,073) (6,552) (16,992) (18,012) (20,722) (22,875) (24,428) 7,750 12,843 17,905 20,664 24,772 (6,146) (3,600) (5,256) (6,218) (7,480) 1,604 9,249 12,655 14,448 17, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 128, , , , ,682 88, , , , , , , ,486 1,027,039 1,182, , , , , ,344 1,144,005 1,423,439 1,659,550 1,895,380 2,149,022 31,711 84,094 88,299 92, ,621 1,029,941 1,220,839 1,440,053 1,656,202 1,876,667 1,091,902 1,340,293 1,568,757 1,795,849 2,039,029 39,070 45,804 45,804 45,804 45,804 52,103 83,146 90,793 99, , ,595 1,198,779 1,471,358 1,705,390 1,977, , , , ,763 1,104, ,050 1,125,390 1,330,446 1,548,128 1,766,435 1,034,963 1,283,722 1,541,494 1,777,465 2,022,201 (%) (63.4) (%) (%) (%) (%) CAR TIER CAR A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 19,193 21,579 24,183 27,312 30,317 (%) ,446 12,601 17,179 22,171 26,078 (%) (%) EPS (RMB) BVPS (RMB) DPS (RMB) EPS (%) (76.3 ) ROE (%) ROA (%) (x) (x) (%)

118 Guotai Junan (HK) 3988 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 115,813 22, (29.4) A 125,106 25, F 141,067 38, F 155,887 45, F 177,513 54, Shares in issue (m) 253,839.2 Major shareholder 67.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 863,053.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) n.a Net gearing (%) n.a P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.575/2.95 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) n.a./n.a./n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) n.a./n.a./n.a. 117 Bloomberg , % % 41.1% % 2004A 2005A 88, , , ,551 27,378 12,488 24,098 12,163 (%) (%) (%) GDP 5,000 James Dai

119 % % % 20-21% % 10% 24%14.5%24% % % 4.51% 5.16% 5.03% 5.18% 5.26%(1) (2) (3) % % % % %11.8% 12.1% % 8% % , % 45 2% 2006

120 Guotai Junan (HK) 0616% % % 20% 07 11% 11% % 20% ROA 0.9% 0.9% ROE 12.4% 11.3% % BVPS ROE % beta % 11.9% 28% % 2 8 7% 14.0% 50% COE 10.5% 50 6% 16.1% 65% r % 5% A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 132, , , , ,642 (43,918 ) (66,940 ) (76,018 ) (81,055 ) (82,266 ) 88, , , , ,377 11,388 12,698 14,737 16,836 19,077 (2,831 ) (3,451 ) (3,965 ) (4,484 ) (5,031 ) 8,557 9,247 10,772 12,351 14,046 8,882 4,283 7,161 7,340 11, (582 ) ,602 11,150 10,710 11,995 13, , , , , ,513 (23,812 ) (11,486 ) (9,589 ) (8,210 ) (10,422 ) (54,879 ) (59,984 ) (64,665 ) (69,174 ) (74,546 ) (78,691 ) (71,470 ) (74,254 ) (77,385 ) (84,969 ) 37,263 53,811 66,993 78,702 92,765 (10,198 ) (22,253 ) (24,419 ) (28,577 ) (33,530 ) 27,065 31,558 42,574 50,125 59,235 22,301 25,921 38,024 45,575 54, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (12.0 ) (20.8 ) (%) (%) (%) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 284, , , , , , , , , ,595 2,072,919 2,152,112 2,380,292 2,632,424 2,889,404 1,229,522 1,571,531 1,743,842 1,869,391 2,005,654 4,265,221 4,740,048 5,210,228 5,659,462 6,125, , , , , ,251 3,338,448 3,699,464 4,046,441 4,370,033 4,707,560 4,037,314 4,484,529 4,792,667 5,204,900 5,630, , , , , , , , , , ,743 4,087,883 4,395,716 4,871,795 5,333,238 5,793,493 1,997,390 2,112, ,266, ,506, ,760, ,185,906 3,518,956 3,872,952 4,208,237 4,538,796 4,119,251 4,502,635 4,975,138 5,434,845 5,892,492 % 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 110, ,226 93,756 90,697 88, (LLS) 74,769 83,153 84,588 85,448 88,779 (LLS/NPL) (LLS) (%) CAR TIER CAR A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EPS,RMB BVPS,RMB DPS,RMB EPS (29.4 ) ROE (%) ROA (%) (x) (x) (%)

121 120 Alan Lam % 6.3% (0576) 2 30% 6.3% (0177) %6.3% (0995) 54.7% (0548) 48.0% % % 1AH (0177) (0548) (0995) % 28.1% 26.8% 32.4% % 20% 90 17,000 7, , , (0107) (0548) (0576)

122 Guotai Junan (HK) % (0548) % % 44% 37% (0177) %-50% % % 04 64% 08 68% 5% % (0548) 5%4.9% 04 58%06 66% 3 A (0177(0548) (0995) % (0177) (0576)10% (0548) (0995) % 15.0% % (%) (%) (0177) % % (0548) (10.1%) 4.37 (9.1%) (0576) % % (0995) (10.6%) 6.93 (7.8%) 0.7% (3.3%)

123 % 06 P/BV % %2003 (0995) % 7% % % 12 4% %12 8% % % 4.00 A % PEG % (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (HK$) (%) (RMB) (%) (%) n.a (23.8) (21.3) (19.6) (21.4) (20.5) n.a (42.4) (22.3) Bloomberg

124 Guotai Junan (HK) 0177 HK$ % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 2, (2.6) A 2, (31.8) F 3,682 1, F 4,232 1, F 4,646 1, Shares in issue (m) 5,037.7 Major shareholder 55.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 20,654.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 8, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.550/3.800 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.9)/(17.6)/4.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.5)/(17.8)/6.9 Bloomberg (0177) % 37, % 8.7% 18.4% % 34, % % % % % 38, % % % % % Alan Lam

125 53 15% % 24% % 3 424% % PEG % % A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F 124 2,111 3,682 4,232 4,646 1,017 2,151 2,563 2, (162) (367) (422) (371) ,963 2,355 2,765 (290) (554) (671) (795) 701 1,409 1,683 1,969 (33) (47) (54) (60) 668 1,362 1,630 1, (%) (31.8) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1, ,395 3,774 (416) (367) (422) (371) (716) (755) (1,158) (1,385) (29) (33) (38) (42) (1,043) (1,095) (1,546) (1,715) (247) (499) (604) (716) (3,973) (50) (420) (50) 0 (132) (3,973) (182) (420) (50) ,274 1,060 (1,000) (1,000) ,274 1,060 (1,000) (1,000) 549 (215) (175) , , ,008 20,782 20,404 19,606 1,577 1,828 1,970 2, , ,798 23,625 23,240 22,908 2, ,369 4,369 4,369 4, ,940 6,000 5,000 4, ,174 10,854 9,982 9, ,208 12,340 12,811 13,336 5,038 5,038 5,038 5,038 8,170 7,302 7,774 8,298 13,208 12,340 12,811 13, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

126 Guotai Junan (HK) 0548 HK$ %-20% 46%5 12 8% % 4.60 Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (Rmb m) (Rmb m) (Rmb) ( %) (x) (Rmb) (%) (%) 2004A (53.9) A F 1, F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) 2,180.7 Major shareholder 30.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 8,232.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 3, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 4.20/2.30 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.3)/25.8/32.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.0)/25.6/21.1 Bloomberg % % 20.5% % % , % 11.4% 100% , % % 63% 90 Alan Lam

127 064,700 C % 08 77% % % % % 20% 4%0616% % 12 8% %18% % 15% 24% 0610% A 2006F 2007F 2008F 911 1,295 1,476 1, ,095 (24) (91) (68) (94) (209) (80) (113) (126) (115) (10) (5) (10) (0) (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 719 1,235 1,514 1,652 (79) (129) (226) (307) (240) (262) (305) (349) (8) (5) (10) (0) (317) (395) (542) (656) (76) (113) (126) (115) (39) (1,310) (1,453) (659) (2,328) (1,009) (1,046) (1,165) (2,367) (2,319) (2,499) (1,824) ,675 2,078 1,635 1, ,691 2,078 1,635 1,100 (350) 484 (18) 157 1, ,377 1, ,377 1,359 1, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,942 8,159 10,509 12,037 3,045 2,884 2,761 2, ,377 1,359 1, ,079 12,632 14,855 16, ,231 4,309 5,944 7, ,707 5,852 7,560 8, ,330 6,737 7,252 7,774 2,181 2,181 2,181 2,181 4,149 4,556 5,071 5,593 6,330 6,737 7,252 7, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

128 Guotai Junan (HK) 0576 HK$ % 4.00PEG Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 3,132 1, A 3,456 1, F 3,834 1, F 4,174 1, F 4,459 1, Shares in issue (m) 4,343.1 Major shareholder 56.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 19,544.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 13, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.95/3.90 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 0.0/(10.0)/(14.3) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 0.4/(10.2)/(25.7) Bloomberg (0576) %37, % %1.7% % % % 70.46% Alan Lam

129 06 A % % 4.00TCI % PEG % % A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F 128 3,456 3,834 4,174 4,459 2,302 2,567 2,778 3, (61) (124) (137) (144) ,265 2,469 2,669 2,956 (692) (817) (862) (940) 1,572 1,652 1,808 2,016 (141) (140) (163) (194) 1,431 1,512 1,644 1, (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,596 3,326 3,470 3,807 (67) (124) (137) (144) (941) (999) (1,042) (1,086) (65) (70) (82) (97) (1,045) (1,180) (1,247) (1,311) (506) (799) (843) (920) (945) (1,000) (900) (700) (170) (600) (1,145) 0 (1,029) (1,600) (2,045) (700) ,452 (48) (1,053) ,452 (48) (1,053) 25 1,199 (712) (178) ,028 1, ,028 1,316 1,138 13,999 14,339 14,565 14, ,079 2, ,028 1,316 1, ,312 18,350 19,035 18, ,548 3,338 3,285 2, ,948 5,404 5,405 4,441 1,168 1,238 1,319 1,416 11,196 11,709 12,311 13,047 4,343 4,343 4,343 4,343 6,853 7,366 7,968 8,704 11,196 11,709 12,311 13, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

130 Guotai Junan (HK) 0995 HK$ % % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, A 1, F 1, F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,658.6 Major shareholder 32.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 9,619.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 2, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.450/3.650 Est. NAV (HK$) 7.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.5/26.8/16.0 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.9/26.5/4.6 Bloomberg (0995) 42, ,255 (0576) (0177) 6% % 52% % % % % % 0655% % 23.3% 14.0% % % % % Alan Lam

131 % % % % 19.4% 0.5% 0.3% %- 3% % % A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,495 1,584 1,763 1,961 1,185 1,264 1,448 1, ,134 1, (56) (58) (86) (62) ,048 1,170 (205) (139) (167) (188) (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,151 1,283 1,467 1,621 (10) (58) (86) (62) (166) (467) (531) (175) (525) (617) (62) (147) (154) (162) (170) (400) (950) (426) (909) (856) (856) (826) (1,859) (856) (856) (100) 1, (550) (100) 1, (550) (96) (205) (18) (17) : A 2006F 2007F 2008F 7,203 8,485 9,026 9, ,836 8,918 9,448 9, ,400 1,550 1, , ,007 2,766 2,946 2, ,629 5,951 6,301 7,283 3,106 3,106 3,106 3,106 2,523 2,845 3,195 4,177 5,629 5,951 6,301 7, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)* *

132 Guotai Junan (HK) Grace Liu % 4.4% -2.9% 6.3% 27.8% 24.5% 17.6% 14.4% 12.5% 13.9% % 31.77% 20.07% 17.43% % 46.78% 14.94% 31.15% 96.78% ,000,000 8,000, ,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000,000-4,000,000-6,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr ,000, : % % 398, (15,588) 1.21% (5.27) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 78, , % (1.74) 3.07% (0.75) 1.13% (0.24) 111, ,983 (46.78) 8.37% (4.25) 2.68% (3.37) 0.96% (1.15) 57, , % (0.69) 3.60% (0.30) 1.48% (0.14) 6, % (1.88) 10.34% % , (96.78) 4.86% (9.45) 0.23% (7.99) 0.09% (3.52) 81, ,490 (3.21) 13.68% (2.57) 5.49% (1.17) 1.62% (0.46)

133 Bloomberg % 29.21% 8.98% 1-3OECD 1.91% % 42.5CERA % % % % % 23.31% 17.19% 17.26% % % % ,500 2,900 3,300 3,700 4,100 4,500 4,900 5,300 5,700 5 CPI % %

134 Guotai Junan (HK) %38% % 40%-60% % 9.6% 19.0% 9.5% 22.0% 20068% % 1, % 17.54% 8.09% -1.91% -1.85% 12.94% -6.45% 7.35% 0.59% 8.92% 24.13% 21.94% % 7.87% 8.69% -8.82% 1.48% % -5.97% 9.77% 4.23% 5.01% 15.39% % ,200 19,000 1,000 17, , ,000 11,000 9, , ,000 Bloomberg % 6% 0.102%30% (0386) (1.81%) (2.39%) (0338) 1.94 (7.79%) 2.59 (6.81%) (0857) 4.27 (0.17%) 6.26 (0.24%)

135 % 5.85% %-60% (RMB m) (RMB m) (0386) 130,642 (0.32%) 134,561 (0.51%) (0338) 4,816 (0.29%) 4,347 (0.30%) (8042) 150 (0.28%) 146 (0.25%) A (0338/600688) (1033/600871) (000783) (000668) (000554) (0338) 4 A A313 30% A ROE (HK$) (%) (RMB) (%) Bloomberg

136 Guotai Junan (HK) 0338 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 39,403 3, A 45,956 1, (53.4) F 50,733 1, (17.1) F 53,835 2, F 52,386 2, (6.1) Shares in issue (m) 7,200.0 Major shareholder 55.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 27,000.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 40, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.000/2.250 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.6)/(24.2)/42.9 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.2)/(24.5)/31.5 Bloomberg % % % % 4, % % LDPE5.97% HDPE PP 9.77% 4.23% 4-6 4%-17% 20% % 17.66% Grace Liu

137 136 1, PTA % % 0.25% 2.35% 5.61% 9.36% 0.37%200710% % ( ) % , ,454 (7.79%) , ,272 (6.81%) , ,272 (7.22%) A (0386)4 A A % PE PB Jan- 04 Feb- 04 Mar- 04 Apr- 04 May- 04 Jun- 04 Jul- 04 Aug- 04 Sep- 04 Oct- 04 Nov- 04 Dec- 04 Jan- 05 Feb- 05 Mar- 05 Apr- 05 May- 05 Jun- 05 Jul- 05 Aug- 05 Sep- 05 Oct- 05 Nov- 05 Dec- 05 Jan- 06 Feb- 06 Mar- 06 Apr- 06 May- 06 Jun- 06(E) Bloomberg ,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 Jan- 04 Feb- 04 Mar- 04 Apr- 04 May- 04 Jun- 04 Jul- 04 Aug- 04 Sep- 04 Oct- 04 Nov- 04 Dec- 04 Jan- 05 Feb- 05 Mar- 05 Apr- 05 May- 05 Jun- 05 Jul- 05 Aug- 05 Sep- 05 Oct- 05 Nov- 05 Dec- 05 Jan- 06 Feb- 06 Mar- 06 Apr- 06 May- 06 Jun- 06

138 Guotai Junan (HK) PB (2004) PB (2005) PE (2004) PE (2005) A (000618) (2005 3Q) 7.26 n.a. 6.9% 41.9% (000763) (2005 3Q) 12.5 n.a. 10.1% 35.8% (000817) (2005 3Q) 15.7 n.a. 18.8% 33.9% (600002) % 38.6% (000866) % 36.6% (000956) % 51.9% (000406) % 58.2% % 42.41% H (0325) 1.62 n.a n.a. 10.9% 32.4% (0368) 2.05 n.a n.a. 15.5% 41.4% (1128) (2005 1H) n.a. 12.2% 33.1% n.a % 35.63% (0338) n.a. n.a A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 39,402,533 45,955,903 50,732,737 53,835,125 52,386,446 (738,474) (765,689) (1,111,949) (1,210,167) (1,198,899) 38,664,059 45,190,214 49,620,787 52,624,958 51,187, , (33,223,604) (42,887,742) (47,337,814) (49,394,851) (48,044,360) 5,440,455 2,935,292 2,282,973 3,230,107 3,143,187 (408,144) (444,449) (490,647) (520,651) (506,640) 277, , , , ,153 (284,164) (201,494) (242,829) (222,162) (232,495) 5,025,152 2,527,960 1,761,729 2,729,911 2,635,204 (36,915) (60,968) 301, , ,714 (292,008) (179,398) (194,376) (147,269) (232,226) 4,696,229 2,287,594 1,869,227 2,902,977 2,714,693 (637,061) (366,300) (276,438) (447,078) (409,777) (88,065) (70,845) (57,888) (89,903) (84,072) 3,971,103 1,850,449 1,534,900 2,365,995 2,220, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,591,615 4,676,107 3,154,265 4,351,797 5,094,348 (346,696) (301,537) (318,070) (332,305) (472,934) (673,214) (430,992) (268,145) (433,666) (397,484) 18, ,589,711 3,943,578 2,568,050 3,585,826 4,223,930 (2,205,957) (1,142,927) (1,805,825) (3,069,902) (4,911,843) 42,750 39,631 59,950 76,504 99,669 96,591 79, , , ,608 (273,990) (165,634) 66,751 64,532 52,702 (2,340,606) (1,189,242) (1,295,175) (2,516,820) (4,360,864) (1,766,760) (1,557,742) (158,220) (511,578) 1,151,051 (576,000) (1,440,000) (720,000) (576,903) (904,936) (56,221) (96,476) (2,398,981) (3,094,218) (878,220) (1,088,481) 246,115 (149,876) (339,882) 394,654 (19,475) 109,180 1,840,351 1,690,500 1,347,237 1,741,891 1,722, (3,381) ,690,500 1,347,237 1,741,891 1,722,416 1,831, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 15,206,325 14,651,167 14,338,996 14,995,186 17,781, , , , , , , , ,214 1,150, ,754 3,135,582 3,349,692 3,420,041 3,519,361 3,660,493 19,660,691 19,302,817 19,143,031 20,186,096 22,882,605 1,690,500 1,347,237 1,741,891 1,722,416 1,831,596 3,727,749 4,114,978 4,542,705 4,820,498 4,690, , , , , ,451 1,675, , , , ,520 1,126,896 1,061,969 1,172,354 1,244,045 1,210,569 8,615,910 7,507,554 8,542,535 8,938,931 8,853, , ,230 1,063,352 1,128,378 1,098, ,746 68,302 75,402 80,012 77,859 4,870,305 4,870,305 3,896,742 3,779,840 3,401,856 1,507,010 1,204,363 1,269,287 1,283,208 1,376,191 7,434,814 6,132,637 6,187,880 5,893,454 6,804,384 1,181,096 1,374,917 2,354,655 3,045,476 2,049,534 20,841,787 20,677,734 21,497,686 23,231,572 24,932,139 2,014,614 1,377,261 1,335,943 1,202,349 1,502, , , , ,000 37,100 23,033 11, ,051,714 1,500,294 1,447,458 1,302,349 1,602,936 18,790,073 19,177,440 20,050,228 21,929,224 23,329,203 7,200,000 7,200,000 7,200,000 7,200,000 7,200,001 11,216,989 11,629,987 12,444,887 14,233,979 15,549,886 18,416,989 18,829,987 19,644,887 21,433,979 22,749, , , , , ,316 18,790,073 19,177,440 20,050,228 21,929,224 23,329, % 4% 10% 32% 13%

139 0386 HK$4.150 QDII 4.90 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 619,783 36, A 823,117 40, F 1,017,980 43, F 1,111,591 46, F 1,119,485 50, Shares in issue (m) 86,702.4 Major shareholder 71.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 359,815.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 150, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.550/2.900 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.6)/(13.5)/40.7 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.3)/(13.8)/29.3 Bloomberg % 2, % % % 46.96% % % % 23.4% 2.45% 7.87% 23.85% 34.94% 23.29% 1.90% 11.65% 13.66%2.50% % 11.40%4.33% 11.30% 7.17% 6.17% 2.55% 4.15% %3, % % Grace Liu

140 Guotai Junan (HK) % 15.20% 8.67% % ,139 5,429 (10.99%) ,497 8,335 (15.20%) ,193 4,798 (8.67%) BP-TNKUdmurtneft % 18 40%1520% % 24.20%22.00% 18.38% 17.20% 17.26% 19.94% 17.66% Jan Mar- 04 May- 04 Jul- 04 Sep- 04 Nov- 04 Jan- 05 Mar- 05 May- 05 Jul- 05 Sep- 05 Nov- 05 Jan- 06 Mar- 06 May Bloomberg ,000

141 2 20% % (1.81%) (2.39%) (2.31%) %-60% % 0.51% A 4 A A313 30% A QDII PE P/B

142 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 597, , ,473 1,084,485 1,083,674 22,586 24,002 25,507 27,106 35, , ,117 1,017,980 1,111,591 1,119, , (443,590) (653,056) (798,096) (870,376) (875,437) (31,843) (33,709) (41,865) (45,747) (45,713) (32,342) (31,413) (36,216) (38,658) (43,307) (6,396) (6,411) (7,962) (8,700) (8,694) (919) (369) (320) (345) (332) (18,634) (18,483) (22,955) (25,083) (25,065) (16,324) (17,152) (33,694) (40,832) (35,602) (6,666) (5,125) (5,896) (5,510) (5,703) (556,714) (765,718) (947,004) (1,035,252) (1,039,853) 63,069 66,814 70,976 76,340 79, (4,583) (5,920) (7,498) (9,441) (11,271) (162) (4,371) (4,621) (7,032) (8,699) (10,677) ,606 63,228 64,916 68,644 69,942 (17,815) (19,388) (19,905) (21,049) (18,185) (5,772) (2,920) (1,048) (1,108) (1,205) 36,019 40,920 43,962 46,487 50, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 90, , , , , (5,450) (6,961) (9,589) (11,282) (13,204) , (16,883) (20,998) (20,211) (21,372) (18,464) 69,081 76,497 80,732 87,089 97,027 (67,583) (63,135) (70,508) (81,671) (85,755) ,192 3,455 3,614 0 (4,324) (22,300) 0 0 (6,726) (4,102) 2,088 (418) (293) (73,992) (71,051) (87,529) (78,635) (82,434) 13,645 (2,921) 18,613 5,005 1,719 (8,670) (10,404) (11,529) (12,323) (13,149) 53 5, ,028 (8,060) 7,084 (7,318) (11,431) 117 (2,614) 287 1,136 3,162 1 (22) ,263 16,381 13,745 14,032 15,168 16,381 13,745 14,032 15,168 18, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 284, , , , ,591 46,185 48,267 67,826 51,719 60,221 24,015 29,190 31,286 34,496 36, , , , , ,441 16,381 13,745 14,032 15,168 18,330 1,899 1, ,329 89, , , ,335 9,756 14,532 18,048 19,721 19,707 7,812 7,143 8,871 9,694 9,687 20,094 19,395 24,088 26,321 26, , , , , ,219 32,307 40,411 42,244 45,625 45,124 23,792 52,967 65,783 71,882 71,828 30,797 23,243 28,867 31,543 31,520 45,276 48,167 59,822 65,368 65,319 14,105 5,861 9,496 7,202 7, , , , , ,699 (26,006) (25,358) (29,097) (28,386) (25,480) 328, , , , ,960 97, , , , ,660 6,644 6,684 8,410 8,966 8, , , , , , , , , , ,357 86,702 86,702 86,702 86,702 86, , , , , , , , , , ,556 31,046 29,440 30,488 31,596 32, , , , , , % 11.1% 2.7% 20,000 15,000 16, % 10,000 5, ,329 3,135 (350) 56.2% -5,000-10,000 (7,875)

143 8042 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB 000) (RMB 000) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 422,728 32, A 627,616 46, F 792,848 53, F 946,088 60, F 1,119,315 65, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 40.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 1.170/0.270 Est. NAV (HK$) 1.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (21.1)/(19.3)/82.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (20.8)/(19.6)/70.6 Bloomberg % % % 1,249.3 BB48.8% 11.7% 5.4% 31.7% 1.1% 1.2% BB 17% , % 6,300 BB % %102% % 20065, % % % 3.05% 9.27%0.39% 4.55%1, BB Grace Liu

144 Guotai Junan (HK) BB30 BB PE PB E 2007E 2008E 422, , , ,088 1,119,315 (336,679 ) (497,767 ) (631,814 ) (758,929 ) (905,888 ) 86, , , , , ,559 2,570 3,410 (22,062 ) (34,640 ) (43,760 ) (52,217 ) (61,778 ) (28,394 ) (38,646 ) (48,820 ) (58,256 ) (68,923 ) 5,004 4,697 2,583 2,713 2,648 41,370 61,260 73,597 81,967 88,784 (7,476 ) (8,060 ) (11,824 ) (10,386 ) (11,474 ) 33,894 53,200 61,773 71,581 77,310 (1,215 ) (6,421 ) (8,648 ) (10,737 ) (11,596 ) 32,679 46,779 53,125 60,844 65, ,712 46,802 53,125 60,844 65, E 2007E 2008E 56,620 99,559 85,676 97, ,865 (7,476 ) (8,060 ) (9,216 ) (10,386 ) (11,474 ) (1,701 ) (6,891 ) (8,216 ) (10,200 ) (11,017 ) 47,443 84,608 68,245 76,708 82,374 (49,246 ) (38,887 ) (73,885 ) (59,108 ) (41,376 ) ,122 1,429 2,135 (6,115 ) (3,140 ) (4,628 ) (3,884 ) (4,256 ) 340 1,351 2,559 2,570 3, (470 ) (54,549 ) (40,621 ) (74,702 ) (58,863 ) (39,956 ) (40,908 ) (23,860 ) (20,482 ) (18,996 ) (21,473 ) , ,400 21,040 (3,337 ) (4,677 ) (4,529 ) (4,586 ) (7,335 ) (8,998 ) (10,412 ) (11,557 ) (4,028 ) 0 (2,608 ) (13,485 ) (10,155 ) 32,387 (34,085 ) (37,559 ) (20,591 ) 33,832 25,930 (16,240 ) 4,859 34,517 13,926 47,758 73,688 57,448 13,926 47,758 73,688 57,448 62, E 2007E 2008E 163, , , , ,683 42,957 45,124 48,746 51,534 54,636 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 (12,366) , , , , ,320 51,037 74,340 93, , ,581 46,802 53,329 67,369 80,390 95,109 13,926 47,758 73,688 57,448 62,308 53,940 77,800 98, , , , , , , ,749 69, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,137 1,046 (16,433 ) 33,635 41,353 72, , , , , ,932 37,200 8,800 8,360 7,942 7,545 7,388 7,330 7,293 7,257 7, ,131 1,711 44,854 16,292 16,248 16,330 16, , , , , ,455 44,713 44,713 53,407 53,407 53, , , , , , , , , , ,

145 144 Tiffany Feng % 6.3% (0941)14.9% (0762) 9.5%(0906) 0.8% (0728) TD 14.9%3G G 06 3 TD-SCDMA (0763) 6 TD 8 TD WCDMA CDMA2000 TDTD WCDMA CDMA TDTD TD (0728)TD TD(0906) TD (0941) GSM TD (0728) TD WCDMA(0941) TD (0941) TD 67% TD TD CDMA2000(0762)TD GSM CDMA (0762) WCDMA CDMA2000CDMA50% CDMA SKT (0762) CDMA20003G CDMA2000(0762) GSM GSM (0906) (0941) (0728)TD 0645% WTO 17 49% 07 35% 49%

146 Guotai Junan (HK) (%) 0762 SKT Telefonica Vodafone (0762) 06 (0906) - (SP)- (CP) SP (CP) SP CP (0941)(8002) Femoo (0762) SP-CP CP (0941) (8002) 3G % 16 25% 20% 15% % 6 4 5% 2 0% G NAV93%

147 (0941) % 18.6% (0762) CDMA 3G GSM NAV NAV4% (0728) (0906) % (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) Vodafone Group VOD.L 12,564, n.a AT&T T 106, Verizon Comms VZ 95, Telefonica TEF.MC 79, NTT DoCoMo 9437.T 68, Deutsche Telekom DTEGn.DE 66, Bellsouth Corp BLS 64, Saudi Telecom 7010.SE 61, Telefonica Movil TEM.MC 58, Sprint Nextel S 56, France Telecom FTE.PA 54, (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) (RMB) (%) Bloomberg (0728) (0906)

148 Guotai Junan (HK) 0728 HK$ % 7% PE P/B Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 152,754 19, A 162,529 21, F 170,033 22, F 177,135 24, F 184,061 25, Shares in issue (m) 80,932.4 Major shareholder 72.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 196,261.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 113, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.275/2.275 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.18 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.9)/(7.8)/(9.5) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.6)/(9.4)/(24.9) Bloomberg , % % 3IPTV ,839 IT % (1) (2)(3) Tiffany Feng

149 20% % 20.1% % , % 70% 100% 80% % 40% 20% 0% 04A 05A 06F 07F 08F 3GTD-SCDMA 3G TD3G 064 CDMA TD ,200TD 1, G30% GTD 7% 3G 7.0% % P/B

150 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F 169, , , , , , , ,929 27,838 34,116 39,898 45,537 11,508 11,173 10,876 10, , , , ,061 (49,652) (50,316) (51,896) (53,446) (47,334) (48,499) (50,170) (51,764) (27,852) (29,478) (31,064) (32,646) (5,518) (6,113) (6,722) (7,353) (130,356) (134,406) (139,853) (145,210) 38,954 40,591 40,577 40, (4,895) (5,283) (5,004) (4,473) 34,114 35,373 35,641 36,472 (6,160) (7,747) (8,126) (8,936) (42) (42) (41) (41) 27,912 27,585 27,474 27,495 21,131 22,620 24,179 25, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 34,114 35,373 35,641 36,472 (6,781) (4,965) (3,295) (2,022) 49,652 50,316 51,896 53,446 5,458 5,283 5,004 4,473 (12,094) (9,838) (2,656) (6,631) (5,011) (7,747) (8,126) (8,936) 68,359 68,105 76,755 74,351 (52,083) (51,000) (49,598) (47,856) (36) (286) (267) (51,894) (51,036) (49,884) (48,123) 954 2,921 (7,308) (7,663) (5,701) (5,561) (5,521) (5,216) (5,596) (6,786) (7,254) (7,642) (14,809) (3,865) (14,562) (15,305) 1,656 13,204 12,309 10,924 13,465 15,121 28,325 40,634 15,121 28,325 40,634 51, , , , ,813 23,567 21,595 20,618 19,830 5,117 5,117 5,117 5,117 10,885 10,885 10,885 10,885 12,623 12,623 12,623 12, , , , ,268 15,121 28,325 40,634 51, ,702 3,019 2,941 3,253 16,142 17,172 18,019 19,053 2,406 2,851 2,140 2,542 36,663 51,695 64,349 77,286 84,968 92,666 91,720 90,411 33,949 33,053 33,836 32,642 26,885 27,153 29,142 29,354 2,108 2,108 2,108 2, ,958 7,166 5,733 4, , , , ,209 55,777 51,000 44,638 38, ,750 13,125 9,188 6,431 2,620 2,620 2,620 2,620 77,199 66,797 56,497 47,388 1,444 1,486 1,527 1, , , , , A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

151 GSM 0762 HK$ GSM3%93.4% CDMA SKT CDMA CDMA2000 3G 3G GSM NAV PE P/B NAV4% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 79,087 4, A 87,049 4, F 92,950 5, F 99,638 6, F 106,910 6, Shares in issue (m) 12,585.8 Major shareholder BVI 77.3% Market cap. (HK$ m) 86,841.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 18, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 7.900/5.850 Est. NAV (HK$) 8.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.6/9.4/6.9 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.8/7.8/(8.6) Bloomberg GSM93.4% GSM 9, GSM1,122 GSM ARPU 1.1% GSM 11.0% % EBITDA % 3.1% 93.4% CDMA CDMA151 3, CDMA 06 C 327 ARPU68 CDMA1.3% EBITDA % 3.9 Tiffany Feng

152 Guotai Junan (HK) GSM CDMA SKCDMASK SKT CDMA ITSKT % SKT 5% SKT CDMA SKT CDMACDMA SKTCDMA 04 CDMA SKT CDMA CDMA 151 CDMA20003G GSM CDMA SKTCDMA20003G GSM CDMA CDMA GSM (1) CDMA % GSM (2) CDMA GSM CDMA CDMA % CDMA GSM (3) GSM06 NAV (4) 3GCDMA2000 1/ % 47,000 75G CDMA80

153 2006CDMA CDMA 01 19, ,303 5,897 2,661 CDMA 03 27, ,187 12,213 3,797 CDMA , ,672 14,728 2,965 CDMA , ,404 20,596 3,603 94,000 40,567 53,433 13,026 NAV8.3SKT SKT % SKT CDMACDMA NAV 8.32 (1) GSM PE P/B DCF WACC=12.0% GSM PE P/B (0941) PE P/B 9.8% 63.6%GSM 152 (2) CDMA PEG CDMA06 DCFWACC=12.0% PEG 06 PE/06-08(0941) PEG33.3% CDMA (3) P/B DCF 0.67 VoIP P/B P/B (0728) (0906) P/B32.0% G GSM NAV PE P/B NAV4% (%) (%) (HK$) GSM DCF@WACC=12.0% CDMA 4.9 n.a 1.24 DCF@WACC=12.0% (1.1) n.a 0.67 DCF@WACC=12.0% x FY06 P/B

154 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 87,049 92,950 99, ,910 GSM 52,136 57,894 64,547 71,152 CDMA 27,577 27,947 28,126 28,801 3,050 2,745 2,470 2,223 1,525 1,289 1, ,762 3,075 3,374 3,741 42,915 58,539 41,744 61,895 3,005 4,320 2,107 4,727 4,025 5,921 3,953 6,119 12,293 16,385 14,165 16,765 3,364 4,597 3,657 4,354 10,600 15,264 8,680 17,200 6,989 9,112 7,122 9,071 2,639 2,939 2,060 3,659 8,070 8,753 9,272 9, (1,099) (852) (592) (451) ,102 8,039 8,810 9,336 (2,170) (2,457) (2,693) (2,853) 4,931 5,582 6,118 6, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 7,102 8,039 8,810 9,336 20,368 22,219 24,241 25, (2,039) 1, (1,474) (2,457) (2,693) (2,853) 30,804 28,896 30,786 32,597 (16,551) (22,000) (23,167) (23,798) (577) (1,637) (680) (1,297) (16,748) (23,355) (23,847) (25,095) (7,572) 1,127 (35) 1,222 9,691 (4,933) (2,466) (2,466) (14,130) (8,145) (2,445) (3,205) 0 (421) 0 0 (1,099) (852) (592) (451) (1,257) (1,563) (1,713) (1,815) (13,213) (5,935) (6,659) (6,265) 842 (394) 280 1,237 4,629 5,472 5,078 5,358 5,472 5,078 5,358 6, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 116, , , ,714 3,144 3,144 3,144 3,144 7,819 9,456 10,136 11, , , , , ,342 2,751 3,255 3,775 2,108 2,476 2,984 3,460 4,548 5,638 6,373 7, ,472 5,078 5,358 6,595 15,276 16,596 18,631 21,624 18,527 20,851 22,351 23, ,058 1,134 1, ,145 2,145 1, ,016 1,016 1,016 1,016 7,887 8,417 9,023 9,639 9,866 6,000 6,000 6,000 7,024 8,151 8,116 9,338 50,862 47,793 49,640 51,526 11,982 6,836 4,691 2, ,481 18,336 16,190 14, ,284 80,296 84,675 89, A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

155 0906 HK$ % % Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 79,148 (1,647) (0.293) n.a. n.a (2.8) 2005A 83,827 10, n.a F 86,997 10, F 91,477 12, F 95,171 13, Shares in issue (m) 6,593.5 Major shareholder 75.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 83,408.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 12, / 06 Net gearing (%) 95.0 /06 06 P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) / 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 16.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.6/(4.2)/15.3 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 4.8/(5.8)/(0.1) Bloomberg , (0728) (0906) % (0728) 50% 0.4% VoIP 0.6% ARPU 100,000 20, ,000 16, ,000 12, ,000 8,000 20,000 4, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 0 Tiffany Feng

156 Guotai Junan (HK) % 23.3% % % 4% 3% 3G G TD % EBITDA % 3.8% % 626%06 3.3% EBITDA % 155 Telefonica 4.9% Telefonica % Telefonica 75.0%5 4.9% BVIBVI70.1%5 4.9% TelefonicaTelefonica5% 9.9% Telefonica %

157 A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,232 89,431 93,059 96,015 69,691 69,254 68,892 68,013 8,352 10,640 13,325 15,887 3,255 2,496 2,745 2,965 5,934 7,041 8,097 9,151 83,827 86,997 91,477 95,171 (25,049) (25,800) (27,105) (27,923) (14,418) (14,529) (15,094) (15,513) (12,323) (12,354) (12,715) (13,038) (13,412) (14,094) (15,094) (15,989) (1,509) (1,479) (1,464) (1,523) (66,711) (68,255) (71,471) (73,986) 20,521 21,177 21,588 22, (3,485) (3,491) (3,232) (2,969) 17,317 17,922 18,572 19,271 (3,429) (4,660) (4,829) (5,010) 13,888 13,261 13,743 14,260 10,483 10,828 12,161 13, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 17,317 17,922 18,572 19,271 (3,405) (2,434) (1,582) (844) 25,012 25,800 27,105 27,923 3,429 3,418 3,186 2,938 20,463 (1,116) (3,191) (1,015) (4,065) (4,660) (4,829) (5,010) 33,557 37,851 37,392 40,855 (27,282) (27,286) (27,443) (26,648) ,954 (1,467) (24,328) (28,753) (26,887) (26,364) (8,922) (5,012) (5,366) (5,129) (909) (3,000) (1,960) (1,960) (1,960) (1,566) (259) (3,978) (4,123) (4,278) (14,656) (10,951) (11,449) (11,367) 10,581 4,874 3,042 2,098 (5,707) (1,853) (945) 3,124 10,581 4,874 3,042 2,098 4,874 3,042 2,098 5, , , , ,125 6,822 8,527 8,993 8,910 1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393 6,034 6,898 6,700 7,447 3,480 3,480 3,480 3, , , , ,355 4,895 3,042 2,098 5, , ,401 10,237 8,309 11, , ,818 1,729 1,847 1,938 2,032 14,499 18,268 13,890 21,209 16,719 22,080 18,215 23,186 3,905 4,721 3,347 4,004 47,341 32,259 42,226 24,393 6,846 7,074 3,904 5,614 8,990 8,990 8,990 8,990 7,975 6,289 5,822 5,329 4,029 3,801 3,883 3,540 2,594 2,594 2,594 2,594 98,399 87,807 88,982 77,649 18,143 27,985 15,821 26,815 7,840 5,880 3,920 1,960 10,925 10,338 9,777 8,853 3,174 3,307 2,959 2,989 1,324 1,324 1,324 1, ,431 48,859 33,826 41,967 63,010 72,293 81,913 91, A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

158 Guotai Junan (HK) 0941 HK$ %06 25%0618% PE 11.4% 18.6% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 192,381 41, A 243,041 53, F 284,143 63, F 325,308 70, F 359,560 76, Shares in issue (m) 19,880.6 Major shareholder 74.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 837,965.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 26, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 52.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.8/10.6/47.9 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 3.1/9.0/32.5 Bloomberg , ,388 5,1253G , ,000 3, , ,500 2, , , ARPU % 6 50% ARPU 06 ARPU 3 Tiffany Feng

159 %87 ARPU3G MSN TOM(IM) (SP) SP IMFemooSPIM Femoo iresearch05 IM 9, % SP 15% %IM IM ARPU 4-5% 25% SP (CP) (8002) 15% 30-50% SP CP % 25% 28% 30% % 3G WCDMA3G WCDMAGSM 900 3,000 7, (0728)TD TD TD 67%TD TD G 17.9% % 18.6% ARPU F 07F 06F 05A 04A % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 08F 07F 06F 05A 04A

160 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 243, , , , , , , ,081 25,055 24,205 25,547 26,002 50,187 71,036 91, ,587 11,089 11,846 12,591 12,890 3,224 2,841 2,602 2,517 15,309 17,614 20,166 22,289 14,200 16,886 19,657 22,086 80,254 94, , ,640 56,368 65,172 74,828 82, , , , ,600 73,686 87,236 96, ,960 3,284 3,383 3,484 3,589 1,025 1,137 1,301 1,438 1,615 2,627 3,707 4,692 (1,346) (1,470) (1,527) (1,573) 78,264 92, , ,106 (24,675) (29,732) (33,183) (35,874) (40) (47) (53) (57) 53,549 63,133 70,462 76, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 78,264 92, , ,106 56,368 65,172 74,828 82,068 (269) (1,157) (2,180) (3,119) 11,128 13,958 10,552 4,994 (24,585) (29,732) (33,183) (35,874) 131, , , ,174 (66,027) (83,300) (78,000) (76,000) 1,468 2,627 3,707 4,692 (21,661) 9,695 (26,727) (6,582) (87,116) (70,979) (101,020) (77,890) 3,422 (2,455) 11,266 (9,819) 10,989 (1,635) (1,470) (1,527) (1,573) (18,894) (26,516) (28,185) (30,470) (25,173) (16,720) (39,531) (21,054) 19,420 53,454 13,164 61,231 45,149 64, , ,078 64, , , , A 2006F 2007F 2008F 216, , , ,542 34,201 43,767 45,208 43,397 35,300 35,300 35,300 35, ,625 6,625 6,625 6, , , , ,183 64, , , ,309 41,925 32,231 58,957 65,539 2,365 3,084 3,154 3, ,603 7,410 8,633 9,099 1,911 1,981 2,475 2,451 3,583 4,415 4,836 5, , , , ,297 11,366 1,647 12, ,975 20,836 23,754 26, ,359 2,189 1,873 2,617 41,931 45,258 50,998 51,452 40,007 48,739 52,864 55,496 9,249 9,249 9,249 9, , , , ,952 12,912 12,812 12,712 12,612 23,633 23,633 23,633 23, ,324 1,324 1,324 1,324 37,966 37,866 37,766 37, , , , , A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

161 0874 HK$ % NAV NAV EPS % NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 7, (70.8) A 9, F 10, F 11, F 13, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 60.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 3,568.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) / 06 Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.250/2.725 PEG (X) 1.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.3/15.8/57.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.7/15.6/45.7 Bloomberg % 48% 052.7% 16.4% % % 07 6, % 3 Amerisourse Bergen (ABC) Cardinal Health (CAH) Mckesson (MCK) 90% % 15% NAV5.95 Sum-of-Parts 07 NAV % 2507 Dennis Yao

162 Guotai Junan (HK) % 3 Amerisourse Bergen (ABC) Cardinal Health (CAH) Mckesson (MCK)P/B ROE11.6% AP/B ROE9% P/BA12.5% 25% NAV (HK$) 68,007 25xPE 1,700, ,956 15xPE 2,069, , xP/B 1,197, ,008 4,967, % 06 14% % % 0615%2.2% ,422 1, % 23.5% 73.9% 7, % 70.9% 21.4% % 3.3% 3.9% % 2.3% 0.8% 10,285 1, % 100.0% 100.0% % % 14.6% EPS NAV NAV % NAV36%

163 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 162 7,710 9,026 10,285 11,657 13,227 (6,314) (7,473) (8,579) (9,758) (11,113) 1,396 1,553 1,706 1,899 2, (557) (617) (679) (746) (847) (667) (641) (689) (769) (847) (47) (54) (53) (56) (56) (0) (1) (1) (110) (108) (87) (142) (158) (9) (10) (14) (14) (15) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (59) (307) (168) (215) (246) (10) (71) (137) (171) (196) (229) (165) (271) (261) (298) 159 (70) (117) (108) (87) (142) (158) (329) (258) (245) (250) (250) (318) (258) (245) (250) (250) (67) (20) (57) (65) (65) (65) (8) (9) (12) (12) (14) 273 (125) 30 (70) (71) 65 (255) (59) (147) (130) ,589 1,542 1,658 1,733 1, , ,916 1,855 1,971 2, ,078 1,149 1,286 1,457 2,106 1,519 1,683 1,954 2,215 2, ,653 3,498 3,461 3,819 4,104 2,513 1,430 1,360 1,594 1, ,469 2,450 2,303 2,543 2,760 3, , ,546 2,723 2,843 2,973 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 18.1% 17.2% 16.6% 16.3% 16.0% 0.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% Gearing 8.3% 11.4% 16.1% 20.5% 23.8% ROE 1.7% 7.5% 9.4% 9.0% 9.5% ROA 0.8% 3.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% ROCE 7.1% 11.5% 11.9% 12.4% 12.7%

164 Guotai Junan (HK) 1093 HK$0.810 C02 C 06 C EPS NBV NBV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2, (52.1) A 3, (36.1) F 3, (49.7) F 3, F 4, Shares in issue (m) 1,538.1 Major shareholder 48.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) 1,245.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 1.670/0.780 PEG (X) 0.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (23.6)/(44.1)/(48.1) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (23.2)/(44.4)/(59.5) Bloomberg C02 CC %25.6%C 3 C C C C C 2 C 70% CC-C2005C 25% 18% C C3,000 C CDSM 05 C 1.5 C 06C3 06CC C C Dennis Yao

165 C E 2007E 2008E ACA ACA 05 30% ACA ACA ACA C 7-ACA % % 50% 07-08C 7-ACA % 22% % 21.0% 25.1% % 22.9% 12.6% C % 16.8% 15.5% 1, % 39.3% 46.8% 3, % 100.0% 100.0% 2004 DSM P/B ;, P/B C NBV C 07 NBV13%

166 Guotai Junan (HK) C 3.37-ACA %7, C 7-ACA NBV NBV91% C A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,451 3,192 3,341 3,929 4,405 (1,820) (2,499) (2,710) (3,014) (3,355) , (131) (183) (184) (224) (251) (230) (293) (294) (356) (405) (11) (21) (17) (20) (22) (28) (68) (79) (79) (79) 3 (1) (3) 7 (4) (13) (16) (0) (75) (123) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (161) (303) (35) (139) (113) 25 (99) (22) (94) (76) (16) 7 (4) (13) (16) (1,082) (400) (530) (200) (200) (1,080) (407) (530) (200) (200) (75) (123) (106) , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,908 3,177 3,168 3,128 3, ,218 3,475 3,466 3,426 3, , ,016 1,490 1,905 2,066 2,544 2,987 4,707 5,380 5,532 5,970 6, ,002 1,179 1, ,566 1,738 1,812 2,074 2, ,091 1,091 1,091 1, ,146 1,146 1,146 1,146 2,438 2,884 2,958 3,220 3, ,259 2,485 2,564 2,739 2,924 4,707 5,380 5,532 5,970 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Gearing (%)

167 OTC 2005 HK$ %06 OTC 93% OTC 0627% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A A F 1, (7.2) F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 42.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) Net gearing (%) (24.0) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.750/2.175 PEG (X) 0.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.0)/(18.5)/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (3.7)/(18.7)/n.a. Bloomberg % 80% % % % % % 66% % 7.2% 5,508 5, % 8.1% OTC06 93% OTC % 2, % 30% 5,771 7,502 Dennis Yao

168 Guotai Junan (HK) OTC % 17.1% % % 51.6% % 15.1% % % 20.6% EPS % % 15.4% 16.8% 40.3% 48.5% 67.8% % P/B 2.368% % 61% 2.

169 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,012 1,185 1,309 (449) (437) (502) (574) (636) (221) (203) (243) (296) (327) (97) (108) (116) (136) (144) (7) (7) (12) (16) (16) (22) (15) (7) (20) (22) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (22) (15) (7) (20) (22) (63) (59) 38 (21) (11) (57) (30) (92) (90) (60) 0 0 (103) (7) (26) (191) (84) (54) IPO (24) (50) (29) (59) (72) (82) (72) (82) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ROE 35.3% 24.6% 22.1% 23.5% 23.8% ROA 11.3% 10.0% 10.5% 11.3% 11.9% ROCE 42.3% 35.8% 34.3% 38.0% 40.6% 50.2% 50.6% 50.4% 51.6% 51.4% 15.3% 15.7% 14.9% 15.1% 15.4% 14.6% 14.9% 13.7% 13.7% 14.2% 9.8% 10.5% 11.7% 12.1% 12.5%

170 Guotai Junan (HK) 8069 HK$15.50 (OTC)06 14%15% 8.9% EPS Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A A 1, F 1, F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 54.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) 2,833 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) Net gearing (%) (28.9) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / PEG (X) 1.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.2)/(3.1)/3.7 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.9)/(3.4)/(7.7) Bloomberg OTC50% OTC 15% 15% %4, % 6.814% % %0615% 8.9% % 18.8% % % Dennis Yao

171 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 983 1,136 1,295 1,491 1,720 (451) (561) (632) (736) (850) (200) (221) (250) (291) (344) (103) (97) (111) (128) (148) (0) (0) (18) (19) (44) (50) (56) (84) (84) (101) (112) (127) DPS A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (154) (60) (51) (66) (51) (18) (19) (44) (48) (54) (153) (130) (50) (50) (50) (3) (114) (193) (50) (50) (50) (79) (84) (101) (112) (127) 4 13 (73) (100) (114) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,117 1,330 1,577 1,339 1,450 1,659 1,879 2, ,087 1,255 1,445 1,339 1,450 1,659 1,879 2, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) Gearing (%) (28.3) (17.4) (28.9) (33.9) (40.1) ROE (%) ROA (%)

172 Guotai Junan (HK) Wu Xianfeng 10% GDP1-1.8GDP7-10% 10% GDP (%) 05 (%) GDP , GDP %

173 19% 80% (0347) (1053)PB (0914) P/B 06ROE (HK$) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) (RMB) (%) n.a. n.a. 0.7 (9.7)

174 Guotai Junan (HK) 173 Wu Xianfeng 06 8,000 23% 21% 25% 14% 26% 04 LME Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr LMEMB Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr LME Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr

175 BP ,000 GDP GDP 40% 50% 05 (ICSG) % % 93.7 LME 11 LME ,800 LME 5, ,000 48,000 29% 45%

176 Guotai Junan (HK) % % % ,500 21,500 19% 26% % 22049% 380 MB % 540 5% % %SHFE4,500 4,300 7% 13% % 8.0% % 12.5% P/B 06ROE (HK$) (%) (RMB) (%)

177 0358 HK$ % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 10,627 1, A 13,178 1, F 18,829 3, F 21,896 3, F 28,130 3, (8.7) Shares in issue (m) 2,895.0 Major shareholder 44.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 18,528.2 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 40, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 9.750/3.550 Est. NAV (HK$) 12.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.1)/14.3/64.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.8)/14.0/52.7 Bloomberg (ICSG) % % , % 13.3% 2,9318.1% % 2, % %82% 15 Wu Xianfeng

178 Guotai Junan (HK) % 67.4% % % % % % % 06 50% % % EPS 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70, = , , / , , ,000 93% EPS PER % DCF20%

179 (1) 2) 20% H %(3) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 10,627 13,178 18,829 21,896 28,130 (8,688) (9,993) (13,500) (16,176) (22,342) 1,939 3,185 5,328 5,720 5, (85) (96) (132) (153) (197) (326) (354) (490) (569) (731) (137) (405) (377) (263) (281) (507) (795) (906) (889) (1,081) 1,432 2,389 4,422 4,831 4,707 (200) (191) (167) (161) (122) 1,233 2,199 4,255 4,671 4,585 (117) (299) (596) (654) (917) 1,116 1,900 3,659 4,017 3,668 (8) (28) (55) (60) (55) 1,108 1,872 3,604 3,956 3,613 (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,233 2,199 4,255 4,671 4, (945) (276) (1,264) (735) (1,493) (18) 500 (500) (465) (580) 931 3,155 3,200 4,269 3,347 (576) (1,600) (2,000) (2,000) (1,600) 5 6 (22) (4) (7) (571) (1,594) (2,022) (2,004) (1,607) (1,056) (115) (709) 462 (200) (191) (167) (161) (122) (320) (320) (556) (1,081) (1,187) (55) (100) (100) (379) (624) (893) (2,051) (946) (19) ,142 1,318 1, ,142 1,318 1,423 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 6,865 7,273 8,735 10,103 10, ,003 7,442 8,895 10,257 11,143 2,926 3,286 4,519 5,255 6,751 1,047 1,165 1,657 1,927 2, ,142 1,318 1,423 1,969 4,267 5,594 7,546 8,667 11, ,695 1,971 2, ,961 1,723 2,259 2,190 2,250 2,986 3,022 3,994 4,201 4,822 2,092 1, ,132 1, ,664 2,895 2,895 2,895 2,895 3,292 5,436 8,485 11,360 13,786 5,956 8,331 11,380 14,255 16, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ROE 19.92% 26.20% 36.57% 30.87% 23.36% ROCE 15.50% 23.95% 38.16% 34.49% 29.03% ROA 13.63% 20.13% 30.81% 27.99% 23.30% Gross Margin 18.25% 24.17% 28.30% 26.12% 20.58% EBIT Margin 13.48% 18.13% 23.48% 22.06% 16.73% Net Gearing 63.2% 22.3% 14.0% 5.5% 4.2% Interest Cover (x) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EV/EBITDA P/E P/B

180 Guotai Junan (HK) 2600 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 32,313 6, A 37,110 7, F 56,283 12, F 62,697 13, F 68,543 13, Shares in issue (m) 11,694.0 Major shareholder 39.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 63,147.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 43, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 8.750/4.125 Est. NAV (HK$) 10.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.9)/(31.2)/25.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.6)/(31.4)/14.2 Bloomberg ,200 5, % 111.6% % 22049% 380 MB % 540 5% % Aricom PLC Aricom Wu Xianfeng

181 % %SHFE4,500 4,300 4,100 50% ,500 21,500 21, , % 56% % 05 40% % 13.0% % Aurukun A 06F 07F 08F 3,824 4,500 4,300 4, ,053 16,689 20,500 21,500 21, EPS

182 Guotai Junan (HK) DCF06 NAV 51% DCF 20% EPS A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 32,313 37,110 56,283 62,697 68,543 (21,503 ) (24,822 ) (35,278 ) (39,288 ) (43,715 ) 10,810 12,288 21,005 23,409 24, (648 ) (687 ) (1,126 ) (1,254 ) (1,371 ) (1,221 ) (1,523 ) (2,082 ) (2,320 ) (2,536 ) (133 ) (113 ) (169 ) (188 ) (206 ) 0 0 (56 ) (63) (69 ) 8,910 10,081 17,754 19,779 20,863 (110 ) (367 ) (512 ) (425 ) (472 ) 8,800 9,714 17,242 19,354 20,391 (4 ) ,796 9,742 17,242 19,354 20,391 (2,161 ) (2,495 ) (4,311 ) (4,839 ) (5,098 ) 6,635 7,246 12,932 14,516 15,293 (244 ) (224 ) (776 ) (1,161 ) (1,529 ) 6,392 7,022 12,156 13,354 13, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT 8,910 10,081 17,754 19,779 20,863 2,870 3,317 3,900 4,430 4,854 (23) (669 ) (730 ) (114 ) (340 ) (512 ) (425 ) (472 ) (2,161 ) (2,495 ) (4,311 ) (4,839 ) (5,098 ) 10,408 9,901 16,137 19,138 20,307 (10,300 ) (8,420 ) (11,000 ) (10,000 ) (8,000 ) (10,300 ) (8,420 ) (11,000 ) (10,000 ) (8,000 ) 3, ,052 3,490 (5,546 ) 1,206 1,142 (1,061 ) (1,945 ) (2,365 ) (3,647 ) (4,006 ) ,059 1,545 (7,910 ) (2,441 ) (2,864 ) 4,167 3,027 (2,774 ) 6,697 9,443 2,596 6,763 9,790 7,016 13,713 6,763 9,790 7,016 13,713 23, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,042 39,836 45,873 51,443 54, , ,201 42,047 46,634 52,170 55,281 5,232 7,235 9,568 10,658 11,652 1, ,251 2,508 2, ,163 1,321 1, ,169 1,690 1,903 2, ,224 7,598 12,002 18,699 28,142 14,357 16,963 26,675 35,089 46,093 2,048 2,649 4,995 5,740 6, ,201 1,435 1,635 5,545 5,585 7,096 7,991 8,907 1, ,074 1,354 2,146 2,454 2, , ,449 2,379 2,251 2,508 2,742 13,193 14,938 18,209 20,648 22,892 7,392 9,690 5,628 6,270 6,854 1,239 1,560 2,336 3,498 5,027 27,567 32,644 47,136 56,843 66, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 33.5% 33.1% 37.3% 37.3% 36.2% 19.8% 18.9% 21.6% 21.3% 20.1% EBIT Margin 27.6% 27.2% 31.5% 31.5% 30.4% EBIT Gearing 24.6% 25.9% -5.0% -14.4% -25.5% ROE 27.6% 23.3% 30.5% 25.7% 22.3% ROA 21.1% 18.6% 26.9% 24.6% 22.1% ROCE 29.1% 26.4% 39.7% 39.4% 38.4% EV/EBITDA

183 2626 HK$ DCF 20% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 7, A 9, (24.1) F 16, F 18, F 19,809 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,420.7 Major shareholder 57.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 9,321.4 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 97, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 4.025/2.225 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.7)/n.a./n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.3)/n.a./n.a. Bloomberg % 4 80% 14.97% 45.9% CMR 7,000 CMR3,000 Wu Xianfeng

184 Guotai Junan (HK) % 37% 3 DCF20% PE A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 7,309 9,291 16,318 18,961 19,809 (6,171 ) (7,780 ) (13,879 ) (16,137 ) (16,896 ) 1,138 1,511 2,439 2,824 2, (145 ) (165 ) (277 ) (322 ) (337 ) (500 ) (560 ) (946 ) (1,100 ) (1,149 ) (14 ) (41 ) (85 ) (93) (81 ) ,464 1,737 1,849 (148 ) (174 ) (176 ) (132 ) (132 ) ,354 1,682 1,802 (96 ) (134 ) (379 ) (471 ) (505 ) (95 ) (111 ) (244 ) (242 ) (260 ) , ,091 2,115 3,421 3,421 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,354 1,682 1, (29 ) (48 ) (66 ) (77) (86 ) (4 ) (14 ) (4 ) (7 ) (8 ) (26 ) (13 ) (23 ) (21) (19 ) 836 1,150 1,900 2,227 2,400 (666 ) (640 ) (209 ) (462 ) (123 ) (183 ) 77 (111 ) 1 (8 ) 46 (96 ) 80 (226 ) (137 ) (99 ) (195 ) (146 ) (86 ) (194 ) 194 (135 ) (70 ) (92 ) (21 ) 34 (12 ) ,786 1,839 2,269 (120) 168 1,223 1,230 1,626 (524 ) (528 ) (820 ) (1,247 ) (1,000 ) (58 ) (581 ) (164 ) (704 ) (1,106 ) (793 ) (1,616 ) , (231 ) (219 ) (291 ) (219) (291 ) (96) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,281 3,398 3,826 4,614 5, ,647 4,918 5,471 6,231 6,571 1,338 2,787 2,996 3,459 3, ,151 1, ,005 1,422 1,327 1,870 2,648 5,115 6,003 6,577 7, ,015 1,161 1,367 1,274 2,130 3,295 2,000 2,000 2, ,550 5,235 4,199 4,507 4,437 (902) (120 ) 1,804 2,070 2,734 2,745 4,798 7,275 8,301 9, , ,871 3,206 6,502 7,519 8, ,265 2,109 2,376 2,641 1,422 1,941 4,393 5,143 5, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 15.6% 16.3% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7% 7.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 5.2% EBIT 11.8% 8.6% 9.0% 9.2% 9.3% EBIT Net Gearing 156.4% 155.2% 22.3% 20.9% 9.0% ROE 40.6% 25.3% 23.1% 20.3% 18.8% ROA 8.7% 5.2% 6.8% 8.0% 7.8% ROCE 24.0% 18.6% 28.4% 30.0% 29.3% EV/EBITDA (0.06 )

185 2899 HK$ CGD Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, (3.0) A 3, F 7,709 1, F 8,612 1, F 9,310 1, Shares in issue (m) 10,513.0 Major shareholder 32.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 35,218.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 44, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 4.950/0.795 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (15.2)/47.3/270.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (14.8)/47.1/258.8 Bloomberg % 8.55% % , , (1)4091% 20(2) % (3) 50 43% 5 6 Wu Xianfeng

186 Guotai Junan (HK) 30% CGD 2 CGD 70%2005 CGD 609,522, ,720,59330,957,162 26,927, CGD 52% % 06 82% % % , / %66% 20 12

187 3.8DCF 20% DCF A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,508 3,036 7,709 8,612 9,310 (683 ) (1,563 ) (4,546 ) (5,001 ) (5,354 ) 824 1,473 3,163 3,611 3, (10) (66 ) (116 ) (129 ) (140 ) (168 ) (245 ) (385 ) (431 ) (465 ) (40) (68 ) (154 ) (172 ) (186 ) 627 1,121 2,525 2,896 3,181 (6) (18) (53) (61) (65) ,134 2,534 2,903 3,191 (179 ) (264 ) (659 ) (813 ) (893 ) (40) (166 ) (394 ) (460 ) (528 ) ,481 1,631 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 637 1,134 2,534 2,903 3, (720 ) (114 ) 58 (179 ) (264 ) (659 ) (813 ) (893 ) (200 ) ,164 1,606 2,528 2,996 (926 ) (1,800 ) (1,200 ) (1,200 ) (1,200 ) (926 ) (1,800 ) (1,200 ) (1,200 ) (1,200 ) (10 ) (123 ) (6) (18) (53) (61) (65) (197 ) (263 ) (421 ) (741 ) (815 ) (424 ) (582 ) (1,236 ) (1,585 ) (226 ) , ,030 1,581 1, ,030 1,581 1,673 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,371 2,395 3,024 3,581 4, ,079 3,800 4,774 5,694 6, ,030 1,581 1,673 1,883 1,187 1,675 2,980 3,134 3, ,494 1,662 1,701 1, ,318 1,433 1,607 2,721 3,981 6,092 7,127 8, ,927 2,153 2,327 1,927 2,371 3,432 4,322 5, ,051 1,051 1,051 1,665 1,845 2,380 3,270 4,224 1,927 2,371 3,432 4,322 5, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 54.7% 48.5% 41.0% 41.9% 42.5% 27.7% 23.2% 19.2% 18.9% 19.0% EBIT 41.6% 36.9% 32.8% 33.6% 34.2% ROE 23.0% 32.7% 51.1% 42.1% 36.9% ROCE 57.0% 56.4% 86.4% 80.1% 73.6% ROA 12.8% 12.9% 19.1% 18.5% 17.9% Interest Cover EV/EBITDA PBV PE CFPS (0.09 )

188 Guotai Junan (HK) 3330 HK$ % 50% 8.3DCF 20% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, A 1, F 2, F 2, F 2, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 48.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 5,507.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 10, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /4.300 Est. NAV (HK$) 10.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.6)/60.7/n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.3)/60.4/n.a. Bloomberg % 14.46%5.7% 05 (m) % , % % 212 2, % % % 06 50% Wu Xianfeng

189 8.3DCF20% PE A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,223 1,556 2,169 2,398 2,550 (976) (1,235) (1,670) (1,799) (1,836) (1) (1) (2) (1) (2) (7) (12) (14) (14) (16) (58) (71) (95) (103) (107) (16) (23) (10) (10) (10) (59) (72) (127) (158) (193) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (69) (104) (85) 33 (34) (43) 9 (149) 98 (132) 6 (17) 147 (101) 132 (22) 22 (7) (2) (59) (72) (127) (158) (193) (110) (111) (475) (509) (400) (109) (110) (474) (508) (399) (192) 0 0 (16) (23) (10) (10) (10) (1) 0 (62) (81) (101) (91) (111) (29) (74) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,049 1, ,252 1, ,328 1,126 1, ,802 2,079 2, ,690 1,966 2, ,538 1,792 2, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 20.2% 20.6% 23.0% 25.0% 28.0% 9.8% 9.9% 12.5% 14.0% 16.1% EBIT 15.9% 15.9% 18.8% 21.0% 24.0% EBIT Net Gearing 64.6% 57.7% (26.7%) (18.8%) (20.1%) ROE 43.0% 37.3% 26.6% 20.1% 21.0% ROA 16.8% 16.6% 16.6% 14.6% 15.6% ROCE 42.7% 37.2% 42.8% 39.0% 39.1% EV/EBITDA

190 Guotai Junan (HK) Wu Xianfeng % 40% 02 CRU 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan (RMB m) (%) (RMB m) (%) (RMB m) (%) (%) 32, ,366.1 (17.2) 2,909.9 (19.0) 14.7 (7.6) 8, (68.4) (72.6) 8.2 (7.2) 26, , , (0.4) 05 23, % 1, %78 25% 8% %8.2% % 16 19% 19% % 530

191 43% 80% 80% % % %27.7% 10-20% %10-20% 19% 19% % 65%FOB % 7% 10% 06 10% % (1) (2) 11% 5% P/B 05ROE (HK$) (%) (RMB) (%) n.a. n.a. 0.7 (9.7)

192 Guotai Junan (HK) HK$ %22.3% 14.7% , AH PB Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 26,770 3, A 32,083 2, (19.0) F 30,607 1, (55.2) F 33,093 1, F 42,094 3, Shares in issue (m) 6,455.3 Major shareholder 63.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 15,008.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 43, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.350/2.200 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (16.2)/(13.1)/(8.8) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (15.9)/(13.3)/(20.2) Bloomberg % 05FOB 71.5% %25% % 53.3% 22.3% 14.7% 19% % 15.7% 2.8% 5.4% 7.9% 6.0% 8.7% 7.9% % 14.3% 3.1% 5.2% 7.1% 4.1% 8.0% 4.8% , H , AH 555AH A 59.34% 49.67% A H 92 Wu Xianfeng

193 05A 06F 07F 08F (%) 10 (10) 2 6 (%) (%) EPS PB PE A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 26,770 32,083 30,607 33,093 42,094 (20,810) (27,370) (27,394) (29,121) (35,780) 5,961 4,713 3,214 3,971 6, (369) (428) (444) (463) (547) (1,432) (745) (796) (860) (1,052) 2 (20) (184) (199) (253) 4,292 3,729 2,005 2,651 4,737 (225) (362) (484) (762) (838) 4,066 3,366 1,520 1,889 3,899 (461) (415) (198) (246) (507) 3,592 2,910 1,304 1,621 3,345 (1,420) (873) (391) (648) (1,338) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT 4,292 3,729 2,005 2,651 4,737 1,789 2,065 2,877 3,558 4, , (433) (316) 595 (461) (415) (198) (246) (507) (434) 129 (270) ,413 5,860 4,003 5,722 9,214 (4,380) (8,713) (9,200) (7,000) (6,000) 139 (220) (3) (4,241) (8,933) (9,070) (6,998) (6,003) (489) 5,508 6,172 2,571 (868) (225) (362) (484) (762) (838) (1,356) (1,420) (873) (391) (648) (258) 357 (82) (82) (82) (2,328) 4,082 4,733 1,335 (2,437) (156) 1,010 (334) ,262 2,113 3,049 2,762 2,885 7 (73) ,113 3,049 2,762 2,885 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 18,728 19,522 25,365 29,477 32,137 2,312 7,477 8,338 7,669 6, ,256 27,691 34,094 37,588 39,482 4,754 5,168 5,203 5,626 6,735 2,199 2,215 2,296 2,482 2, , ,173 3,113 2,602 2,647 3,368 9,940 11,243 11,044 11,771 14,338 3,272 3,862 3,673 3,640 4, ,445 4,495 4,591 4,964 6,314 1,351 2,191 8,670 11,232 10, ,380 10,782 17,271 20,200 22,046 4,134 8,571 8,264 8,273 7, ,714 9,498 8,922 8,985 8,903 6,455 6,455 6,455 6,455 6,455 10,569 12,059 12,491 13,720 16,416 17,025 18,515 18,946 20,175 22, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) EBIT Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) EV/EBITDA

194 Guotai Junan (HK) 0347 HK$ ROE 29% 10%06 20% 8.8 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 23,178 1, A 26,488 2, F 49,000 5, F 57,680 6, F 68,783 8, Shares in issue (m) 5,933.0 Major shareholder 69.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 39,454.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 11, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 8.250/3.500 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.6/4.7/70.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.9/4.5/59.1 Bloomberg , % 1, %78 11, % % % (Angang Steel Company Limited) % A ROE 29% ROE % ROE 29%PB 20% 52% 43% 057.1% % Wu Xianfeng

195 , 0 1,325267% 1,100 76% 1, ,600 30% 85-90% 10% EPS % 16% EPS28.5% 27.2% 20.5% 06 05A 06F 07F 08F 605 1,400 1,600 1,800 4,380 3,500 3, ,764 2,818 2,884 3,019 (%) EPS (%) n.a % 20.7% 11% 5% 40% 6 10% PB

196 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 23,178 26,488 49,000 57,680 68,783 (19,806) (22,764) (39,445) (46,144) (54,339) 3,372 3,724 9,555 11,536 14, (423) (463) (882) (1,038) (1,238) (271) (314) (735) (865) (1,032) 2,784 3,058 8,051 9,765 12,333 (120) (19) (315) (324) (225) 2,664 3,037 7,736 9,441 12,108 (867) (919) (2,321) (2,832) (3,632) 1,798 2,117 5,415 6,609 8,476 (889) (1,067) (2,708) (3,305) (4,238) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT 2,784 3,058 8,051 9,765 12, ,654 2,681 2,927 (1,227) (579) (1,407) (2,589) (3,458) (867) (919) (2,321) (2,832) (3,632) (55) 26 1 (9) 6 1,395 2,414 5,978 7,016 8,175 (746) (700) (1,500) (1,800) (1,800) (670) (41) (81) 73 (29) (1,417) (741) (1,581) (1,727) (1,829) 133 (1,090) 4,075 (473) (2,650) , (120) (19) (315) (324) (225) (592) (889) (1,067) (2,708) (3,305) (457) (1,997) 15,306 (3,505) (6,179) (479) (323) 19,702 1, ,317 1, (24) , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 6,908 6,365 23,562 26,031 25, ,886 5,193 3,497 2, ,966 9,670 29,174 29,956 28,823 2,221 2,608 7,825 8,652 9, ,011 1, ,799 1,730 2, , ,032 6,934 4,553 12,708 12,422 14, , ,748 2, ,661 1,144 2,450 1,154 1,376 1, ,967 3, ,633 2,369 12,072 8,406 3,533 1, ,470 1,730 2,064 2,963 2,963 5,933 5,933 5,933 7,059 8,288 22,407 26,309 31,480 10,022 11,251 28,340 32,242 37, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) Gearing (%) (3.0) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) (x) EV/EBITDA (x) (x)

197 1053 HK$ A PB Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 8, (13.6) A 8, (72.6) F 8,338 (355) (0.257) (254.0) n.a (9.7) 2007F 9,014 (58) (0.042) n.a. n.a (1.7) 2008F 10, n.a Shares in issue (m) 1,383.1 Major shareholder 61.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 2,213.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.500/1.850 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (12.1)/(4.6)/(21.5) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.7)/(4.9)/(32.9) Bloomberg ) 2) 3) 4) A PB PB 05A 06F 07F 08F ,469 3,115 3,177 3,336 (%) EPS (0.257) (0.042) Wu Xianfeng

198 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 8,552 8,856 8,338 9,014 10,012 (7,237) (8,128) (8,245) (8,586) (9,112) 1, (10) (139) (150) (133) (140) (150) (203) (176) (167) (171) (180) 0 0 (4) (5) (5) (204) (91) (132) (151) (178) (198) (355) (58) 374 (28) (45) 0 0 (52) (355) (58) (355) (58) (0.257) (0.042) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT (204) (502) (479) (26) (28) (45) 0 0 (52) (91) (132) (151) (178) (198) (355) (58) 322 (1,000) (1,254) (600) (600) (600) (227) 193 (31) (21) (33) (1,227) (1,061) (631) (621) (633) (213) (160) (160) (425) (289) (663) (319) (231) 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 4,039 5,055 5,372 5,673 5, ,120 5,161 5,483 5,773 6,065 1,541 1,849 1,584 1,623 1, ,081 2,971 2,650 2,783 2,872 1,553 1,468 1,501 1,623 1, ,084 1,907 2,397 2,692 2,731 2,664 3,375 3,898 4,315 4, , ,064 1,064 1,383 1,383 1,383 2,781 2,852 2,018 1,960 2,282 3,845 3,916 3,401 3,343 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (2.5) (%) (4.3) (0.6) 3.2 EBIT (x) (1.4) Gearing (%) (%) ROE (%) (9.7) (1.7) 9.2 ROA (%) (2.5) ROCE (%) (3.3) (x) (6.4) (39.3) 7.1 (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

199 0914 HK$ PEG05-08 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 8, A 10, (59.8) F 14, F 16,509 1, F 18,342 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,255.7 Major shareholder 49.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 14,691.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 3, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /6.650 Est. NAV (HK$) 19.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (20.4)/9.9/60.3 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (20.1)/9.6/48.9 Bloomberg % 13.7% % % Wu Xianfeng

200 Guotai Junan (HK) % %0513.3% % 70% % ,692 52% % % %8 12% 6% 8%5% % 27.77% % 04A 05A 06F 07F 08F 3,758 5,692 7,400 8,510 9, % 22.3% 28.0% 29.3% 30.0% 8.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3% EPS

201 DCF EPS 0.87PEG A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 8,335 10,826 14,200 16,509 18,342 (5,570) (8,416) (10,226) (11,675) (12,843) 2,764 2,411 3,973 4,834 5,499 (444) (833) (1,079) (1,222) (1,321) (271) (369) (469) (528) (569) ,246 1,315 2,568 3,249 3, (292) (447) (543) (569) (581) (597) (316) (673) (890) (1,066) (408) (169) (410) (524) (606) ,283 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F EBIT 2,259 1,318 2,582 3,266 3, (86) (15) (1,023) (10) (440) (297) (212) Tax (554) (316) (673) (890) (1,066) (320) (447) (543) (569) (581) ,110 1,205 1,725 2,413 2,930 (2,402) (3,280) (2,600) (2,000) (1,700) (468) (2,835) (3,280) (2,600) (2,000) (1,700) 1,166 1,013 (358) (720) , (1,032) (126) (163) (88) (239) (385) (675) ,105 2, (11) (671) 2,257 1,637 2,416 1,917 2,319 (620) 779 (498) ,637 2,416 1,917 2,319 2, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,312 14,485 15,801 16,908 17, ,306 15,749 16,469 17,566 18, ,296 1,564 1, ,171 1,627 1,178 1,420 1,486 1,651 3,591 3,423 4,225 4,787 5, ,693 4,706 4,348 3,627 4, ,066 1,111 1,455 1,420 1,321 1,284 6,113 7,397 7,159 6,638 7,710 3,256 4,875 5,680 6,604 5, ,414 5,169 5,992 6,941 5,909 1,121 1,082 1,151 1,338 1,550 3,001 3,001 3,001 3,001 3,001 2,248 2,522 3,391 4,435 5,608 5,249 5,524 6,392 7,436 8, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Gearing (x) EBIT (x) EV/EBITDA (x) (x) (x)

202 Guotai Junan (HK) 0506 HK$ % 06 40%50% 5.2 NAV PE Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 16, (35.6) A 17, F 19, F 20, F 22, Shares in issue (m) 1,761.2 Major shareholder 68.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 7,265.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.200/2.650 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.3)/(4.9)/17.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.0)/(6.5)/ Bloomberg % 3,000 3%CBOT 2,600 5, % 6.2%19.7% 2006/ % 50% % 20% % 15% % %52.1% 70% 1% % Tiffany Feng

203 % 2.8% NAV3.7% % NAV3.7% NAV 06 EPS 06 PE NAV Weight EPS 06 PE NAV Weight EPS 06 PE NAV Weight (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) (%) (%) (p.p) (5.2) (5.2) (1.1) (2.8) (1.0) (3.7) A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,588 19,016 20,656 22,233 1,720 2,044 2,308 2, (987) (1,138) (1,301) (1,488) (289) (276) (295) (316) ,041 (164) (213) (195) (248) (139) (153) (172) (190) (59) (41) (60) (59) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (563) 911 (793) 810 (158) (153) (172) (190) 107 1, ,827 (644) (1,148) (622) (521) (781) (1,148) (622) (521) 746 (339) 897 (360) (142) (153) (173) (191) 604 (488) 723 (551) (71) ,059 1,287 2,042 3,315 4,200 4,506 4, ,892 2,253 3,056 2,372 1,956 1,810 2,130 1, ,059 1,287 2,042 11,299 11,378 13,066 13,229 1,400 1,430 1,791 1,838 3,403 3,065 3,961 3,601 5,600 5,291 6,549 6,235 1,013 1,054 1,114 1,173 4,686 5,033 5,404 5, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

204 Guotai Junan (HK) 0700 HK$15.50 (SP)07 SP % PEG 1.0 Revenue Net Profit EPS EPS PER Diluted Diluted DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) EPS (RMB) PER (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, A 1, (5.4) F 2,936 1, F 3,750 1, F 4,452 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,757.9 Major shareholder MIH Market cap. (HK$ m) 27,248.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /5.750 Est. NAV (HK$) 19.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 5.8/34.2/138.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 6.2/34.0/127.1 Bloomberg (0700)(Instant Messaging) %9.2% (IVAS) (MVAS) 27.4% 17.3% IVAS MVAS 43% 15% QQ IVAS QQ QQ 38%QQIVAS 65.9% 4.37 IVAS 67.7% IVAS6 78% 5%-6% 06 IVASIVAS 06 IVAS159% % IVAS60% MVAS(0941)11SP SPSP 6 SP SP SPSP IM Alan Lam

205 204 SP MVASSP 3 35% QQ MVASIVAS IM06 MVAS 25.3% SMS 17%IM2.2 IMSP SMS75% MVAS32% MVAS9.7% 9.5% 2.2% 2.0% %IVAS %35% IVAS QQ IVAS MVAS 3G 14% % SP ,500 3, % % PEG 0.65PEG IVAS PEG PEG 1.0 EV/EBITDA PEG P/BV 2006F 2007F F 2007F 2006F 2006F 1, , (1.6) 4.3 Tom 1, , , IBES

206 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,426 2,936 3,750 4, ,034 2,643 3, IM ,103 2,675 3, ,138 1,424 1,634 (47) (40) (40) (40) 437 1,097 1,384 1, (88) (125) (143) 485 1,010 1,259 1, (%) (5.9) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,018 1,199 1,791 1, (24) (88) (125) (143) 994 1,111 1,667 1,608 (269) (294) (375) (445) (40) (40) (40) (11) (334) (415) (486) (115) (407) (132) (147) (303) (378) (247) (555) (303) (378) (20) (40) (40) (40) 860 1,576 1,758 2,666 1,576 1,758 2,666 3, A 2006F 2007F 2008F , ,576 1,758 2,666 3, ,427 4,199 5,204 6,536 (222) (422) (400) (576) (42) (42) (42) (42) (234) (351) (421) (506) (1) (1) (1) (1) (499) (816) (864) (1,124) ,928 3,383 4,340 5, ,928 3,383 4,339 5,412 2,928 3,383 4,340 5, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (IVAS) % % 70% 65% 60% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % F 2007F 2008F

207 0828 HK$2.7 50% % PE Yr End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ M ) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A n.a n.a A (20.5) F 1, F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,245.0 Major shareholder 44.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 3,361.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 2, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.650/2.450 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.7)/(17.7)/(1.8) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.4)/(19.3)/(17.2) Bloomberg % 3.5% , % 10% % 20% 5% 8% 1 2.0% % 50% 50% 50% 11% Tiffany Feng

208 Guotai Junan (HK) 21% % 11% 25% 1,195 60%10% 1% % A 2006F 2007F 2008F 947 1,158 1,410 1, (222) (261) (324) (397) (59) (70) (82) (95) (48) (68) (80) (93) (2) (2) (2) (2) A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,592 1,800 1,951 2, ,306 1,427 1,569 1, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (19) (15) (17) (17) (125) 72 (88) (44) (126) (120) (80) (80) (108) (105) (63) (63) (139) (80) (95) (111) (120) (80) (95) (111) 585 (80) (95) (111) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

209 0980 HK$ % PEG Revenue Net Profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (Rmb m) (Rmb m) (Rmb) ( %) (x) (Rmb) (%) (%) 2004A 11, A 15, F 19, F 22, F 25, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 34.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 5,193.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 1, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /6.900 Est. NAV (HK$) 10.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.6)/(6.7)/(3.5) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.2)/(6.9)/(14.9) Bloomberg (0980) % 50% 27.8% 5, % % 30.8% 24.5% % % % 06 5%1% % 1% % 0.9% 90.6% 95% %-3.4% % % Alan Lam

210 Guotai Junan (HK) 21% % PEG P/BV % 20%PEG PEG 1.24(3389) Best Buy PEG A 2006F 2007F 2008F 15,534 19,917 22,737 25,304 2,825 3,694 4,273 4, (2) (104) (146) (169) (192) (15) (18) (22) (26) (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F , (44) (80) (98) (112) (29) (18) (22) (26) 19 5 (0) (9) (107) (112) (132) (152) (465) (626) (630) (630) (1) (1) (467) (532) (630) (630) (74) (4) (4) (5) (73) (4) (4) (5) ,083 1,294 1,992 1,083 1,294 1,992 2,004 : A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,994 3,125 3,309 3, ,757 1,955 2,284 2, ,083 1,294 1,992 2, ,995 7,525 8,778 9,100 (3,743) (4,079) (5,112) (5,188) (3) (3) (3) (3) (1,117) (1,117) (1,117) (1,117) (16) (16) (16) (16) (4,880) (5,216) (6,248) (6,324) (224) (221) (216) (211) 1,891 2,089 2,313 2, ,269 1,467 1,691 1,943 1,891 2,089 2,313 2, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

211 1068 HK$ %46.6% PE PEG PE PEG Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 2, n.a n.a A 4, F 5, F 7, F 9, Shares in issue (m) 1,452.0 Major shareholder 51.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 8,348.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 6, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.750/3.200 Est. NAV (HK$) 7.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/since IPO) (0.9)/8.6/57.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/since IPO) (0.6)/7.0/51.8 Bloomberg % % 0620% % 3.8% % 6% 95-98% % % % % 6.5% % 5.5% % 06 5% % % Tiffany Feng

212 Guotai Junan (HK) % % % 24.8% 30.1% % A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F % % % % 24.1% PE PEG PE PEG PE 06PE 07PE EPS 06PEG 05P/B Bloomberg Code (US$ m) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) HORMEL FOODS CORP HRL 5, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC SFD 3, TYSON FOODS INC TSN 5, n.a n.a 1.2 SHUANGHUI DEVELOPMENT CH 2, PEOPLE'S FOOD HLD PFH SP , YURUN FOOD 1068 HK 1, IBES

213 1212 HK$ % % PE P/B 16.8% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 1, n.a 2005A 2, F 2, F 2, F 2, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder Real Reward 64.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 11,095.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 1, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /9.750 Est. NAV (HK$) 16.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 7.8/2.5/4.3 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 7.5/0.9/(11.1) Bloomberg % % 5.6% % 21 10% % 11% % , , ,500 22% 400 2,000 21% 300 1,500 20% 200 1, % % Tiffany Feng

214 Guotai Junan (HK) % ,600 50% 06 14% % 5% % % 72.5% 10.2% (3368) (3308) % 26.0% 18.0% 24.3%05 52,500 8,000 1% % 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4, F 2007F 2006F 2005A 2004A ,000 1, F 2007F 2006F 2005A 2004A 80.5% 50% 6% 8.2% % 5% (GST) PE P/B PE P/B 16.8%

215 2319 HK$ CEO 11.7 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 7, A 10, F 14, F 17, F 22,686 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,368.4 Major shareholder 18.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 13,341.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 5, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /4.825 PEG Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 7.1/14.0/95.0 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 7.5/13.8/83.6 Bloomberg AC % 61.3% AC Nielsen % % SH 30% (%) (%) CH HK (%) (%) CH (0.69) (1.19) (1.17) 2319 HK (0.14) (1.38) 05 Wu Xianfeng

216 Guotai Junan (HK) % % 29.3% (0.8) % %, 20% 5 AFI % ,000 52% 48% CEO %UHT

217 % OMP % % 56% 50% 3.5% 2.23% 3% % 20% 4% 31% % 36% 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) EBIT ,356 1,881 (%) (%) ,154.1 (%) EPS (%) PEG

218 Guotai Junan (HK) 2331 HK$7.2 30% % PE PEG Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, A 2, F 3, F 4, F 5, Shares in issue (m) 1,027.0 Major shareholder 36.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 7,394.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 2, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 9.150/3.250 Est. NAV (HK$) 9.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.1)/0.6/95.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.8)/(1.1)/80.0 Bloomberg % 10-15% 20-30% 45-47% 40-50% (WSJ) (Zou Marketing) % 22.1% 30-50% % % 10-15%30% Tiffany Feng

219 ZOU Marketing WSJ 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6, F 2007F 2006F 2005A 2004A 2003A 7274, , ,000 77% 85% 4%3% AIGLE 07 AIGLE AIGLE % AIGLE06 2% % 35.9% NAV PEG NAV %

220 Guotai Junan (HK) 3389 HK$ % Swatch PEG PEG 08NAV Revenue Net Profit Diluted EPS EPS Change Diluted PER PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (RMB) ( %) (x) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, n.a. n.a A 1, F 2, F 3, F 3, Shares in issue (m)* 1,242.3 Major shareholder* 57.5% Market cap. (HK$ m)* 4,627.4 Free float (%)* Average vol. ( 000) 3, / 06 Net gearing (%) 19.9 /06 06 P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) 1.3 High/low after IPO (HK$) 3.925/1.320 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.5 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/since IPO) 1.3/49.4/180.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/since IPO) 1.6/47.7/172.8 Bloomberg * % 1.85, ,000 6(0398) (1) (2) 420% (3) (4) 70% 70% Alan Lam Tiffany Feng

221 ,600 (Olma)(Numa Jeannin) 3 45%23 59% 220 Swatch Swatch1,250 1, Swatch 7.23% Swatch 4.82% % Swatch Swatch18 Swatch(Basic Range) UCI , Swatch 1, % 627 (0939) (3988) (0754) % 06 6, ,1397,9968,79540% % % 26.7% 19.8% % % PEG PEG 08NAV

222 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,397 2,211 3,050 3, ,110 1, ,241 1,923 2, (1,032) (1,688) (2,358) (2,681) (97) (169) (248) (281) (63) (102) (137) (158) (23 (23) (22) (14) (65) (88) (112) (137) (11) (13) (16) (19) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (81) (648) 69 (84) (49) (88) (112) (137) 98 (288) (13) (471) (80) (20) (195) (208) (339) (78) (17) (84) 35 (89) (173) (23) (23) (22) (14) (92) (50) (55) (65) (5) (6) (8) (9) (174) (261) 64 (11) 133 (20) A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,315 1,215 1, ,062 1,747 1,840 1, ,485 1,686 1, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ,000 3, % 18.9% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 UCI 1.0% 4.5% Swatch 7.2% 1, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 9.9% 57.5%

223 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Grace Liu , % %7, % % , % 1, % % % % (IMF) % % % % 43.57% % ,000 19,500 20,000 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,000 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 000 b/d ,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan

224 Guotai Junan (HK) 20051, % % OPEC69.76% 51.59% BP (2006) , , , , ,500 1,400 1, R/P ratio , , , BP(2006) OPEC % 3,300 2,860 10% 3, , , , % 1-4OPEC3.14% OPEC 0.38%OPECOPEC OPEC OPECOPEC % 5.00% % % % 1.00% 0.00% Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr % -2.00% -3.00%

225 224 OECD % % % % % % OECD 1.91% , % % 1.25% 2.60% % 30.24% 30.66% % 40% 2006 (0857) (0386)(0883) % 10.99% 9.59% Dubai WTI Brent Bloomberg ,500 8,000 8,500 9, E 2006E % 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50%

226 Guotai Junan (HK) (0857) ,913 (8.41%) 35,357 (11.85% ) (0386) ,139 (10.99%) 12,497 (15.20% ) (0883) ,783 (9.59%) 7,797 (14.45% ) CPI OML130 45% MEG16.69% BP-TNKUdmurtneft % 5.85% 43.57% H A QDII % 1.23% % 12.5% 1% 3% 8% QDII

227 0135 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2, A 3,378 3, F 4,244 2, (28.1) F 4,135 2, (3.3) F 3,382 2, (4.1) Shares in issue (m) 4,824.1 Major shareholder 52.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 17,728.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 38, Net gearing (%) (5.5) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 5.100/1.220 Est. NAV (HK$) 5.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.4)/40.0/203.7 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.0)/39.8/192.3 Bloomberg % % 14.91% 16.14% K&K 44.60% 78.79% % 91.69% 70.27% 25.50% Gobustan 3, CaspianAktobeAktobe Caspian ,196,328 Aktobe 20047,259,700, Aktobe % % % Caspian 40% 60%Aktobe10.048% % Grace Liu

228 Guotai Junan (HK) % 10.26% 5.63% % ,430 29, ,849 (7.00%) , , ,854 (10.26%) , , ,041 (5.63%) % K&K9.13% 1.05% 8.16% 2.85% Sukhothai 29.90% 37.40% 2005L21/ Gobustan 1,434.2 Madre de Dios (0857) K&K (0857) (0857) Bloomberg PER (0857)(0883)15.8% PB % 2005 (HK$) 70% 1,174,100 (9.13%) 606,131, % 54% 691,000 (1.05%) 370,898, % Aktobe 15% n.a. n.a. 2,347,258,000 n.a. Sukhothai 96% 378, % 73,454, % L21/43 n.a. n.a. 3,155,000 (87.41%) 50% 1,215,160 (8.16%) 67,750, % : 1,176,596,000 (22.26% ) n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. 25% 1,418, % 107,806, % Tetma Block IOR-3, Tuyintaung Block BSF-2, 50% n.a. 14,342,000 (49.41%) Gwegyo-Ngashandaung Block RSF-3 Kursangi Karabagli 25% 1,159,000 (2.85%) 59,970, % Gobustan 25% 06 n.a. n.a. 30,384,000 50% 69,000 (40.00% ) 25,764,000 (2.13%) 175, % BOPP 25% n.a. n.a. 234,000 (87.72%) 227

229 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,533,312 3,378,323 4,244,134 4,135,278 3,382,440 (1,537,929) (1,780,745) (2,237,122) (2,179,743) (1,782,915) 995,383 1,597,578 2,007,012 1,955,535 1,599, (198,849) (437,563) (218,952) 68,462 89,667 96,384 93,026 94, ,705, (18,281) (3,155) (38,203) (38,585) (38,971) (23,014) (32,705) (41,087) (40,033) (32,745) 1,022,550 3,357,232 1,825,257 1,532,380 1,403,562 (10,735) (33,627) (62,784) (54,528) (45,575) 1, , , , ,744 66, ,281 1,967,985 2,129,965 2,002,803 1,079,382 4,251,132 3,882,755 3,765,011 3,513,534 (275,974) (415,660) (478,693) (408,762) (302,146) 803,408 3,835,472 3,404,063 3,356,250 3,211,388 (35,374) (190,958) (763,712) (802,393) (763,064) 768,034 3,644,514 2,640,351 2,553,857 2,448, , , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,616,707 1,732,708 2,187,144 2,076,208 2,088,164 (10,735) (33,627) (62,784) (54,528) (45,575) (209,500) (320,872) (526,562) (429,200) (392,790) 1,396,472 1,378,209 1,597,798 1,592,480 1,649,799 (557,552) (594,401) (683,561) (786,095) (904,010) 16,019 85, , , ,744 70, , ,599 22,347 44,476 68,190 95,167 (154,847) (1,061,002) (17,602) (23,805) (23,255) (604,443) (1,275,931) (504,390) (584,515) (679,354) (20,766) ,120 (533,395) (373,376) (261,364) (94,681) (165,693) (385,927) (528,070) (510,771) (59,280) 8, (174,727) 442,477 (919,322) (901,447) (772,135) 617, , , , , ,949 1,282,402 1,831,521 2,002,196 2,105,348 (849) 4,364 (3,412) (3,366) (3,389) 1,282,402 1,831,521 2,002,196 2,105,348 2,300,269 1,282,402 1,831,521 2,002,196 2,105,348 2,300, , ,553,761 1,831,521 2,002,196 2,105,348 2,300, % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,711,100 2,805,036 2,931,976 3,096,446 3,303,874 3,982 3,842 3,688 3,519 3, , , , , , ,250 9,730,309 11,698,294 13,828,258 15,831,061 19,587 74,722 70,418 70,676 68,842 3,586,562 13,433,044 15,564,467 17,901,995 20,155,361 20,055 29,346 36,867 35,921 29,382 88, , , , , ,553,761 1,831,521 2,002,196 2,105,348 2,300,269 1,662,699 2,632,886 3,008,938 3,086,269 3,102, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,865 41, ,588 1,464,240 1,211, , , ,111 1,168,646 1,797,224 2,104,711 2,421,399 4,420,673 14,601,690 17,361,691 20,006,706 22,576,760 47,341 48,241 48,241 48,241 48,241 4,010,655 12,558,831 14,285,184 16,328,270 18,286, , , ,665 4,057,996 12,607,072 14,861,496 16,887,283 18,824, , ,476 1,733,188 2,535,581 3,298,645 21, , , , , , , , , ,444 4,420,673 14,601,690 17,361,691 20,006,706 22,576, % 68.95%

230 Guotai Junan (HK) 0857 HK$ QDII 8.60 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 397, , A 552, , F 663, , F 735, , F 736, , Shares in issue (m) 179,021.0 Major shareholder 88.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 1,369,510.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 127, Net gearing (%) (8.2) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 9.600/5.600 Est. NAV (HK$) 8.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.5)/(3.8)/ 34.2 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.1)/(4.0)/ 22.8 Bloomberg % % 3, % % 1.79% 3.78% 3.47% 17, % 11.19% -5.33% 15.94% % % 26.08%5.19% 6.74% % % 11% % % % Grace Liu

231 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Bloomberg Bloomberg % 11.85% 6.88% % ,913 15,283 (8.41%) ,357 23,583 (11.85%) ,452 13,642 (6.88%) % 31.14% 28.84% 17.72% 19.95% % % , % PetroKazakhstan A QDII PE PB

232 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 397, , , , ,905 (114,249 ) (200,321 ) (205,638 ) (227,945 ) (228,441 ) (22,934 ) (29,675 ) (35,646 ) (39,513 ) (39,599 ) (12,090 ) (15,566 ) (18,698 ) (20,726 ) (20,772 ) (48,362 ) (51,305 ) (60,139 ) (69,206 ) (80,102 ) (28,302 ) (36,538 ) (43,890 ) (48,651 ) (48,757 ) (220 ) 0 (110 ) (55 ) (83 ) (19,943 ) (23,616 ) (53,951 ) (69,691 ) (54,993 ) (116 ) (3,037 ) (3,098 ) (3,160 ) (3,223 ) (246,216 ) (360,058 ) (421,171 ) (478,947 ) (475,968 ) 151, , , , ,938 (2,896 ) (2,762 ) (3,145 ) (3,424 ) (3,616 ) 1,373 1,924 3,799 5,760 7, (28 ) (1,515 ) (750 ) 626 2,359 3,795 1,621 2,401 2,011 2,206 2, , , , , ,841 (43,598 ) (54,180 ) (68,434 ) (72,937 ) (66,710) 107, , , , ,131 (3,803 ) (6,280 ) (9,932 ) (12,586 ) (15,399) 103, , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 141, , , , ,058 (94,045 ) (119,227 ) (149,761 ) (179,713 ) (215,656) (10,316 ) (1,038 ) (436 ) (159 ) (305) (692 ) (2,711 ) (100 ) (102 ) (104) 2,777 31,400 13,145 15,098 17,939 (102,276 ) (91,576 ) (137,152 ) (164,876 ) (198,126) (5,627 ) (6,171 ) (7,326 ) (6,593 ) (5,934) 0 19, (34,328 ) (53,667 ) (69,573 ) (76,587 ) (80,683) 369 (2,488 ) (39,586 ) (42,634 ) (76,794 ) (83,065 ) (86,490) 246 (458 ) ,217 31,117 18,668 5,442 11,613 11,688 80, , ,689 11,688 80, , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 485, , , , ,926 30,582 38,282 42,774 45,597 46, , , , , ,989 47,377 62,733 75,356 83,530 83,712 8,680 7,658 9,199 10,197 10,219 19,866 22,673 27,235 30,190 30,255 33, ,425 1,691 2,031 2,252 2,257 11,688 80, , , , , , , , ,888 73,072 99, , , ,119 22,516 25,391 29,783 34,059 37,408 34,937 28,689 25,820 23,238 20, , , , , ,442 (8,272 ) 22,057 50,691 67,044 71, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,127 15,199 28,278 38,210 50,796 66,195 44,648 44,570 40,113 36,102 32,492 20,302 35,992 44,177 52,882 61,621 64,950 80,562 84,290 88,984 94, , , , , , % 3.9% 12.0% 220, , , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,810 3,276 3,183-2, % -20,000-40,000

233 0883 HK$ OML Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 55,222 16, A 69,456 25, F 86,599 30, F 93,843 30, F 91,900 31, Shares in issue (m) 43,327.4 Major shareholder 66.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 251,298.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 164, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.850/4.100 Est. NAV (HK$) 8.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.7)/(8.7)/40.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.3)/(8.9)/29.2 Bloomberg % % 450,46311% 415, % 186% % 6Liwan Block 29/26 250Liwan % 0.55 FPSO % % % /25-1 A (SES) 45, Grace Liu

234 Guotai Junan (HK) OML130 45% (OML130)45% Akpo P50 6OML130 5 P50Akpo % Egina Egina South Preowei 39.3% % 33.61% 46.22% % 14.45% 9.84% 2007 % ,783 3,190 (9.59%) ,797 5,201 (14.45%) ,229 3,488 (9.84%) 4 6 BHP Billiton Outer Browse WA-301-P WA-303-P WA-304-P WA-305-P 25%2 S % % 16.04% 12.78% 16.43% 10.83% 6.20% % 1.25% 1.20% %137.8 OML A % 12.5% 1% 3% %

235 OML %0607 PE PB A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 36,886,019 53,417,669 69,412,216 77,229,955 75,000,158 18,191,353 15,901,325 17,046,339 16,473,832 16,760, , , , , ,727 55,222,063 69,455,743 86,599,275 93,842,522 91,899,970 (5,070,344 ) (5,934,598 ) (7,067,436 ) (7,562,156 ) (8,091,507 ) (1,725,674 ) (2,596,543 ) (8,156,536 ) (11,551,305 ) (8,874,755 ) (1,316,160 ) (1,293,687 ) (1,400,577 ) (1,498,618 ) (1,603,521 ) (5,455,062 ) (5,964,740 ) (8,372,937 ) (10,814,590 ) (12,362,757 ) (201,637 ) (252,857 ) (273,749 ) (292,912 ) (313,415 ) 0 (90,190 ) (17,963,461 ) (15,704,100 ) (16,834,912 ) (16,269,506 ) (16,552,209 ) (1,104,348 ) (1,370,368 ) (1,901,813 ) (2,102,426 ) (2,022,153 ) (45,844 ) (77,062 ) (106,948 ) (118,229 ) (113,715 ) (32,882,530 ) (33,284,145 ) (44,114,907 ) (50,209,742 ) (49,934,033 ) 22,339,533 36,171,598 42,484,368 43,632,780 41,965, , , , ,396 1,549,029 (441,825 ) (1,100,532 ) (887,755 ) (1,426,867 ) (1,531,237 ) 29, , , , ,368 72, , , , , , , , , , ,206 28, , , ,564 23,069,962 36,300,934 43,142,979 44,145,100 43,107,329 (6,930,826 ) (10,977,812 ) (13,046,924 ) (13,349,976 ) (11,207,906 ) 16,139,136 25,323,122 30,096,056 30,795,123 31,899, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 29,705,761 41,695,648 51,387,075 54,882,782 54,857,165 (7,402,280 ) (9,849,454 ) (12,820,152 ) (12,547,866 ) (10,773,798 ) 206, , , ,396 1,549, , , , , ,098 4,626 45, , , ,570 (322,118 ) (329,797 ) (765,500 ) (1,052,238 ) (1,055,848 ) ,893 (152,041 ) (285,021 ) 22,327,860 32,153,822 38,951,643 42,696,001 45,012,195 (18,622,045 ) (17,469,555 ) (52,000,000 ) (25,272,000 ) (23,743,512 ) (6,280,000 ) (3,597,000 ) 244,000 (2,391,200 ) (5,738,880 ) 294,853 (8,282,661 ) 276,939 (4,070,999 ) (7,056,398 ) , , ,873 (24,607,192 ) (29,349,216 ) (51,248,725 ) (31,545,903 ) (36,349,917 ) ,396, ,154,085 0 (825,674 ) (2,696,300 ) (2,696,300 ) (21,075 ) (18,654 ) 12,794,348 1,851,886 0 (6,101,395 ) (7,772,218 ) (8,743,022 ) (9,133,677 ) (4,619,269 ) (61,153 ) 4, ,970,462 (7,786,372 ) 17,622,243 (9,978,091 ) (7,315,569 ) (308,870 ) (4,981,766 ) 5,325,161 1,172,007 1,346,710 14,400,394 14,091,524 8,991,758 14,316,919 15,488,926 0 (118,000 ) ,091,524 8,991,758 14,316,919 15,488,926 16,835, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 57,182,026 66,625, ,245, ,688, ,054,752 1,327,109 3,718,482 3,701,877 3,689,488 3,681,173 58,509,135 70,343, ,947, ,377, ,735,924 4,276,489 5,277,784 6,858,081 7,630,491 7,410,182 1,147,294 1,199,626 1,558,823 1,734,390 1,684,314 5,444,113 13,846,935 13,569,996 17,640,995 24,697,393 8,603,000 12,200,000 11,956,000 14,347,200 20,086,080 14,091,524 8,991,758 14,316,919 15,488,926 16,835,635 1,730,305 2,905,312 3,775,233 4,200,429 4,079,153 35,292,725 44,421,415 52,035,052 61,042,430 74,792,758 93,801, ,765, ,982, ,420, ,528,682 3,102,024 2,867,678 3,726,330 4,146,018 4,026,314 4,191,024 5,206,943 6,766,028 7,528,070 7,310,719 24, , ,414 2,696,300 2,696, ,485 1,248,416 1,622,222 1,804,929 1,752,817 2,503,466 3,467,505 3,694,277 4,496,388 4,930,496 10,402,363 13,616,216 16,653,272 20,671,706 20,716, ,211 24,392 12,800,000 12,800,000 12,800,000 16,313,550 16,531,780 15,706,106 13,009,806 10,313,506 3,089,448 4,161,663 4,505,519 4,820,905 5,158,368 6,688,498 6,827,916 6,964,474 7,103,764 7,245,839 26,956,707 27,545,751 39,976,099 37,734,475 35,517, , , , , ,090 55,566,204 72,726, ,430, ,092, ,372,234 56,442,790 73,603, ,352, ,014, ,294,324 93,801, ,765, ,982, ,420, ,528,682

236 Guotai Junan (HK) 2883 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 3, A 4, F 5,839 1, F 6,329 1, F 6,773 1, Shares in issue (m) 3,995.3 Major shareholder 61.58% Market cap. (HK$ m) 13,783.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 8, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 4.925/2.650 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (13.8)/(15.9)/19.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (13.4)/(16.1)/8.1 Bloomberg ,1134.7% 10.5%17.0%88.3% % 22.3% 1, % 19.0% 46.2% -8.2% 33.9% 0.3% 5, % % 294.9% 55.2% 24.4% 91.8% % 942 NH2 COSL COSL ,000 9, Grace Liu

237 Baker Hughes % 2, % 443ODS-Petrodata % ,001-5, % % % 2005 ExxonMobil BP Shell Chevron Conocophillips Total Eni17.06% % Q 3, % 2, % 2, % 1, % 1, % Jan-00 May-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Sep-00 LAND Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 OFFSHORE Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 70% 65% 60% Baker Hughes ODS-Petrodata , Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 ODS-Petrodata % 9.5% 450,46311% 415, % % %5.7% % 72.35% 30.36%60 50% 25,000 4, %

238 Guotai Junan (HK) (0883) , % 97.53%200610% 15% % 61.56% % 97.53% % 90% ODS-Petrodata , % 60,000 40% 4,500 4, % 50,000 30% 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 80% 60% 40% 40,000 30,000 20,000 20% 10% 0% 1, % 10,000-10% % % % % BR Energy (Workover Pulling Unit (WPU)) , % PE %P/EBITDA PB P/EBITDA PB

239 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,824,029 4,788,792 5,839,156 6,329,190 6,773,030 23,488 12,919 12,320 17,904 15,411 3,847,517 4,801,711 5,851,476 6,347,093 6,788,442 (666,971) (755,676) (890,068) (983,828) (1,068,051) (640,153) (833,345) (1,016,129) (1,101,405) (1,178,642) (226,733) (285,166) (347,714) (376,895) (403,325) (1,125,938) (1,437,233) (1,752,473) (1,899,544) (2,032,751) (186,828) (213,436) (260,251) (282,091) (301,873) (166,549) (105,288) (128,382) (139,156) (148,914) (38,045) (61,737) (47,613) (42,829) (52,283) (3,051,217) (3,691,881) (4,442,629) (4,825,747) (5,185,840) 796,300 1,109,830 1,408,846 1,521,347 1,602, (16,802) (8,302) (12,552) (10,427) 0 (104) (58,400) (78,400) (98,400) 34,300 16,956 42,580 58,769 81,293 34, (24,122) (32,183) (27,533) 99, , , , , , ,934 1,171,136 1,250,869 1,311,790 (124,136) (135,938) (165,162) (141,934) (143,598) 701, ,996 1,005,974 1,108,935 1,168, , , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,677,215 1,567,920 2,013,147 2,167,775 2,209,606 0 (104) (58,400) (78,400) (98,400) (316,913) (464,107) (309,180) (371,508) (389,602) 151, , , , ,293 (271) (33,582) (16,836) (8,553) (21,068) 1,511,642 1,261,407 1,850,045 1,980,166 1,989,829 (1,611,848) (2,071,173) (2,796,084) (1,957,258) (1,761,533) 8,512 1,144 3,561 4,930 5, , ,755 64,076 6, (1,231) 3,162 (240) (112) (101) 34,300 16,956 42,580 58,769 81,293 35,737 54, , , ,834 8,352 (3,466) (24,090) (23,221) (22,403) (863,208) (1,358,212) (2,607,290) (1,805,723) (1,592,814) 0 0 2,000, (182,187) (230,930) (232,256) (276,217) (300,819) 0 (200,000) (182,187) (430,930) 1,767,744 (276,217) (300,819) 466,247 (527,735) 1,010,499 (101,774) 96, ,614 1,258, ,126 1,741,625 1,639,851 1,258, ,126 1,741,625 1,639,851 1,736,047 2,166,537 1,014,888 1,961,551 1,853,482 1,949,138 (4,255) (1,093) (1,333) (1,445) (1,546) 2,162,282 1,013,795 1,960,219 1,852,037 1,947,592 (923,424) (282,669) (218,594) (212,186) (211,545) 20, ,258, ,126 1,741,625 1,639,851 1,736, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,763,424 7,258,247 9,160,701 10,129,202 10,817, , , , , ,622 5,947,687 7,498,183 9,405,436 10,378,831 11,071, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,661 1,003,415 4,255 1,093 1,333 1,445 1,546 2,162,282 1,013,795 1,960,219 1,852,037 1,947,592 24,272 2,800 3,414 3,701 3,960 3,193,133 2,165,779 3,364,877 3,374,577 3,576, ,000,000 2,000,000 2,000, , ,306 1,128,261 1,222,947 1,308, , , , , , ,602 94, , , , , , , , ,231 1,242,886 1,423,404 3,775,327 3,944,030 4,089,412 1,950, ,375 (410,450) (569,454) (512,511) 7,897,934 8,240,558 8,994,986 9,809,377 10,559, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,789 7,064,676 7,654,742 8,428,461 9,261,179 10,128,551 3,995,320 3,995,320 3,995,320 3,995,320 3,995,320 2,893,961 3,495,214 4,231,936 5,044,060 5,899, , , , , ,650 7,064,676 7,654,742 8,428,461 9,261,179 10,128, % 47% 13% 10% 59% 18% 18% 24%

240 Guotai Junan (HK) 8261 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB 000) (RMB 000) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 487,688 61, A 776,522 85, F 1,339, , F 1,864, , F 2,214, , Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 43.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 1,166.4 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) Net gearing (%) (5.5) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 2.600/0.920 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.5 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.0)/1.7/87.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.6)/1.5/76.1 Bloomberg % % % 2, % (0857) (0386) % % 7.6% 8.6% 9.2% 7.4% 068%-10% % % % 33% Grace Liu

241 % Baker Hughes % 2, % 2, % % 6, % % % 2006 (0857) (0386)0.45% 1.35% 19.39% 19.20%12.36% 29.03% PE PEG PE PEG06 07 P/B A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 487, ,522 1,339,022 1,864,022 2,214,022 (391,030 ) (596,113 ) (1,050,780 ) (1,466,985 ) (1,749,077 ) 96, , , , ,945 15,458 14,146 14,802 14,474 14,638 (20,128 ) (24,853 ) (42,856 ) (59,659 ) (70,861 ) (14,300 ) (33,162 ) (51,795 ) (72,102 ) (85,641 ) (7,540 ) (17,577 ) (30,309 ) (42,193 ) (50,116 ) 70, , , , ,965 (4,572 ) (3,444 ) (9,610 ) (8,488 ) (5,573 ) 65, , , , ,393 (1,485 ) (27,271 ) (46,542 ) (68,721 ) (69,522 ) 64,091 88, , , ,870 (2,725 ) (3,021 ) (4,174 ) (5,489 ) (6,774 ) 61,366 85, , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 35, , , , ,387 1,016 2,048 6,814 13,713 4,122 (55,772 ) (223,018 ) (144,962 ) (115,969 ) (121,768 ) 0 (11,838 ) (120 ) (200 ) (210 ) (221 ) (232 ) ,526 1,622 3,637 (41,667 ) (52,230 ) (48,748 ) (32,498 ) 6, , (44,660 ) (273,851 ) (188,898 ) (148,829 ) (148,051 ) 102, , (21,760 ) (5,155 ) (60,000 ) 20,000 50,000 (20,000 ) (32,000 ) (10,806 ) (21,082 ) (30,657 ) (41,157 ) (52,639 ) (6,436 ) ,667 99,394 19,343 (61,157 ) (84,639 ) (5,559 ) 128,166 69,682 62,274 62,697 97,159 57, , , ,650 57, , , , ,347 26, , , , ,001 31,451 75, , , ,346 57, , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 124, , , , , ,037 8,005 7,973 7,941 8,872 20,201 19,727 19,242 18, ,288 4,240 3,402 2, , , , , , , , , , ,741 89,871 75, , , ,962 61, , , , ,923 26, , , , ,001 15,577 51,822 89, , , , , ,447 1,310,300 1,559, , , ,292 1,011,054 1,200,895 30,000 50, ,000 80,000 48, ,355 28,009 34,881 41,833 21,017 49,519 85, , , , , ,691 1,244,804 1,431, ,280 55,153 28,757 65, , , , , , , , , , , ,762 1,090 4,891 9,065 14,554 21,328 54,000 64,800 64,800 64,800 64, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,762

242 Guotai Junan (HK) 241 Zhang Wenxian % , , % % / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / %7.4% , % 3%-6%

243 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 04/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / % BJ BJ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2005

244 Guotai Junan (HK) % % 80% 30%40% % 5 75% 50% 60% % ROE 28.4% % 4.8% ROE 16.7% 19.2% P/B % NAV 10.4%7.00 NAV (HK$) (X) (X) (X) ROE(%) (%) (RMB) (%) (8.2) (5.5) (6.5) (0.1)

245 A 1088 HK$ % 2006 A % 13.3% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 39,267 8, A 52,242 15, F 63,902 19, F 71,985 22, F 78,236 23, Shares in issue (m) 18,089.6 Major shareholder 81.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 234,260.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 20, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) /7.300 Est. NAV (HK$) 16.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.6)/2.8/71.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.3)/2.5/60.1 Bloomberg % % , % % Zhang wenxian

246 Guotai Junan (HK) % 522.7% % % 5.8% AAA AA % % % 13.3% % 13.3% 30% A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (RMB/t) (MW) 2,322 2,595 3,075 3,441 6,951 8,037 8,877 (GWh) 21,770 26,730 35,491 36,370 52,588 61,666 64,951 (%) % 2.8% P/B NAV % NAV 13.3% NAV 4.3%

247 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 39,267 52,242 63,902 71,985 78,236 (4,452) (5,821 ) (7,331 ) (8,618 ) (9,213 ) (1,564) (2,046 ) (2,444 ) (2,758 ) (2,948 ) (4,795) (5,182 ) (7,026 ) (7,929 ) (8,476 ) (2,146) (2,660 ) (2,539 ) (2,865 ) (3,063 ) (5,557) (6,215 ) (7,331 ) (7,929 ) (8,476 ) (2,708) (3,195 ) (4,318 ) (4,880 ) (5,220 ) (21,222) (25,119 ) (30,546 ) (34,473 ) (36,852 ) (2,492) (3,289 ) (3,339 ) (3,817 ) (4,108 ) (54) (150 ) (148 ) (170 ) (182 ) (23,768) (28,558 ) (34,033 ) (38,459 ) (41,142 ) 15,499 23,684 29,869 33,526 37, (2,358) (2,060 ) (2,051 ) (2,042 ) (1,845 ) ,339 22,095 28,400 32,137 35,971 (2,773) (4,083 ) (5,680 ) (6,427 ) (8,993 ) (1,631) (2,380 ) (3,002 ) (3,369 ) (3,728 ) 8,935 15,632 19,718 22,340 23,250 (%) (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 13,339 22,095 28,400 32,137 35,971 4,949 5,182 7,026 7,929 8,476 2, (183 ) 231 (599 ) (415 ) (321 ) (29) (881 ) (797 ) (553 ) (427 ) (299 ) 1,965 (284 ) (197 ) (152 ) 1,624 2,190 1,473 1, , (2,711) (999 ) (4,083 ) (5,680 ) (6,427 ) (8,993 ) (59) ,934 24,088 30,788 34,360 36,013 (16,666) (22,060 ) (19,976 ) (10,588 ) (15,000 ) (96) (1,596) (1,596 ) (1,596 ) (1,596 ) (1,596 ) (17,995) (17,578 ) (21,572 ) (12,184 ) (16,596 ) 1,872 (10,813 ) (3,005 ) (4,882 ) (4,000 ) 0 19, (7,549 ) (2,261 ) (5,915 ) (6,702 ) ,037 6,177 (3,005 ) (4,882 ) (4,000 ) 2,976 12,687 6,211 17,294 15,417 4,162 7,138 19,825 26,036 43,330 7,138 19,825 26,036 43,330 58, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 72,923 82,358 94, , ,613 12,352 19,160 19,568 15,078 15,039 1,210 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 2,731 3,686 4,076 4,513 4, ,766 3,839 3,839 3,839 3,839 1,242 1,431 1, , , , , ,587 2,691 3,572 4,369 4,922 5,349 2,913 2,682 3,281 3,696 4,016 3,239 1,274 1,558 1,755 1, ,265 3,770 5,111 7,138 19,825 26,036 43,330 58,747 16,036 27,419 37,509 57,472 75, , , , , ,718 13,857 9,443 15,302 13,691 12,371 4,411 6,601 8,074 9,096 9,885 1,475 1,124 1,564 1,769 2,476 4,704 5,597 6,846 7,712 8,382 24,447 22,837 31,787 32,268 33,114 46,332 39,933 31,069 27,797 25, ,035 1,171 1,639 47,441 43,934 32,998 29,908 27,742 71,888 66,771 64,785 62,176 60,857 13,085 15,107 22,780 31,794 41,049 25,396 57,382 74,839 91, , , , , , , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (2.2) (21.4 ) (%) (x) (%) (x)

248 Guotai Junan (HK) 1171 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 10,575 3, A 11,517 2, (11.9) F 12,205 3, F 13,975 3, F 15,211 3, Shares in issue (m) 4,918.4 Major shareholder 52.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 24,469.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 23, Net gearing (%) Cash P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 7.289/4.575 Est. NAV (HK$) 7.0 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.3)/(17.8)/(14.6) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.0)/(18.1)/(26.0) Bloomberg % 4.7% , % 2, % % , % 3, % 1, % % % % 7.2% % 23.3% % % % 4.1% % 14.5% Zhang Wenxian

249 A10 A %52.86% A5.85%7.32% % 0.3%53.7% 51.8% % % 8.9% EPS % % 4.8% P/B NAV NAV 10.4%7.00 NAV

250 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 10,575 11,517 12,205 13,975 15,211 (%) (4,552 ) (5,289 ) (5,656 ) (6,738 ) (7,372 ) 6,023 6,228 6,549 7,238 7,839 (1,480 ) (1,919 ) (2,033 ) (2,328 ) (2,534 ) ,709 4,445 4,659 5,073 5,483 (36) (25 ) (26 ) (30) (33 ) 4,673 4,420 4,633 5,043 5,451 (1,519 ) (1,538 ) (1,529 ) (1,664 ) (1,799 ) 3,155 2,882 3,104 3,379 3,652 (0 ) (0 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 3,154 2,881 3,103 3,378 3, ,080 1,164 1,267 1,369 2,355 1,801 1,940 2,112 2,282 (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,155 2,882 3,104 3,379 3, ,122 1,277 1, ,418 3,939 4,337 4,784 5, (743 ) (1,315 ) (2,800 ) (97) (1 ) (2,000 ) (2,000 ) (1,500 ) (2,301 ) (2,262 ) (4,800 ) (2,000 ) (1,500 ) (200 ) (200 ) (200 ) (200 ) (200 ) (471 ) (799 ) (1,164 ) (1,267 ) (1,369 ) 1, (11) (10 ) ,075 (1,009 ) (1,364 ) (1,467 ) (1,569 ) 3, (1,826 ) 1,317 1,999 2,024 5,217 5,886 4,059 5,376 5,217 5,886 4,059 5,376 7, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,217 5,886 4,059 5,376 7, ,287 4,424 4,569 4,942 5,203 8,320 10,951 9,298 11,060 13, ,537 9,318 12,996 13,719 15, ,017 10,303 16,027 14,495 16,063 18,337 21,254 25,325 25,555 29, ,338 1,576 1,670 1,912 2, ,545 3,429 3,076 2,616 2, ,640 1,000 2, ,663 1,013 2,004 2,809 3,607 5,738 3,629 4,843 15,524 17,619 19,642 21,857 24, (55 ) ,337 21,254 25,325 25,555 29, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) EBITDA (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (36.2 ) (34.3 ) (6.5 ) (20.6 ) (22.9 ) (%) (x) (x)

251 Zhang wenxian %-25% (%) (%) (%) % 1 24% A A 1, % AA A A 2.18A % 1.0% % 61.3% %1.73 A

252 Guotai Junan (HK) A6 A n.a n.a. n.a. NAV %- 36.9% 2006 NAV10%-39% 39% 27%-33% 13.4%-10.5% NAV 6NAV NAV 12 NAV (HK$) (HK$) (%) (HK$) (%) ROE 11.6% 4.3% % 2.1%2006 NAV 7.83NAV 39.0% 26.1% NAV 25% NAV 10% ROE (HK$) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (HK$) (%) (22.4) (16.6)

253 0267 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 22,912 3, A 26,564 3, F 28,467 5, F 31,187 3, (41.0) F 33,463 4, Shares in issue (m) 2,193.9 Major shareholder 28.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 48,594.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 5, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 25.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.7)/(4.7)/(1.8) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.4)/(5.0)/(13.2) Bloomberg % 50% (0293.HK) 17.5% (19.HK) % % 50% % Zhang Wenxian

254 Guotai Junan (HK) % 40.0% 41.6% P/B % 5.0% 2006 NAV % NAV 8.2% EBIT 3.1% 4.7% 17.9% 0.6% 17.8% 3.1% 46.6% 41.7% 16.0% 7.3% % 37.4% EBIT 2006 NAV 2006NAV % NAV (HK$ m) NAV/sh (HK$) NAV (%) 17.5 MARKET 9, X2006F X2006F , DCF@11% 4, X2006F , DCF@12% 6, X2006F 2, CPCNET 100 COST , X2006F 1, , X2006F 6, XBV XBV 33, X2006F 6, XBV 1, XBV , (18,639) (8.50) (33.2) NAV 56,

255 0270 HK$ NAV Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 5, (20.6) A 5,249 1, F 5,552 1, F 5,798 1, F 6,139 1, Shares in issue (m) 6,022.2 Major shareholder 62.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 17,012.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 11, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.800/2.150 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.0)/(19.9)/22.8 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (4.7)/(20.1)/11.4 Bloomberg % 59.5% , % %-20% % 20% % 8% % 14.5%16% Zhang Wenxian

256 Guotai Junan (HK) %2005 2, % 24.5% 2, MW ,763 6, % P/BV % 3.6%2006 NAV 4.24 NAV33.4% NAV20% NAV10% % 6.4% 5.0% 23.5% 3.7% 60% 4.6% 59.5% 0.2% 7.8% 5.6% 3.1% 2006 NAV NAV NAV/share Share of (HK$ m) (HK$) NAV(%) DCF@10% 29, x2006E x2006E x2006E 4, x2006E x2006E 1, (13,052) (2.17) (51.2) 25,

257 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,109 5,249 5,552 5,798 6,139 (2,768) (2,771) (2,776) (2,899) (3,069) 2,341 2,478 2,776 2,899 3, (60) (73) (77) (81) (85) (315) (373) (394) (412) (436) (65) ,958 2,378 2,670 2,788 2,952 (798) (754) (670) (670) (670) ,238 1,728 2,117 2,240 2,412 (159) (218) (360) (381) (410) (183) (207) (341) (340) (395) 896 1,303 1,417 1,520 1,607 change (%) (19.1) (HK$) change (%) (20.6) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,238 1,728 2,117 2,240 2, (236) (27) (21) (30) 0 (5) (3) (2) (3) (126) 347 (66) (54) (74) (124) (182) (360) (381) (410) 124 (114) ,167 3,306 3,404 3,530 3, (115) (250) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) 0 (7) (8) (435) (81) (334) (201) (1,020) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,066) (1,062) (500) (700) (700) (497) (2,669) (2,248) (1,624) (1,937) (1,825) ,271 1,568 1,624 2,403 2, ,568 1,624 2,403 2,997 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 12,178 11,782 12,369 12,956 13,543 2,085 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 12,642 12,148 11,655 11,162 10,669 1,317 1,619 1,597 1,720 1,850 28,226 27,868 27,924 28,140 28, ,643 2,114 2,403 2,997 3, ,129 2,681 2,994 3,611 4,468 30,355 30,549 30,918 31,751 32,832 (114) (1,143) (1,209) (1,263) (1,337) (666) (51) (41) (288) (324) (324) (324) (324) (42) (46) (1,279) (1,845) (1,652) (1,705) (1,780) (14,586) (13,111) (12,611) (11,911) (11,211) (35) (29) (40) (40) (40) (527) (592) (592) (592) (592) (17,157) (15,623) (15,134) (14,434) (13,734) (18,435) (17,468) (16,786) (16,140) (15,514) 1,875 1,603 1,125 1,043 1,597 2,781 3,009 3,009 3,009 3,009 7,069 8,169 9,585 11,105 12,712 10,045 11,478 13,007 14,568 15,721 26,605 27,344 28,668 29,665 29, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (%) (x)

258 Guotai Junan (HK) 0291 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 47,078 1, A 53,585 2, F 63,490 2, (4.6) F 69,591 2, F 75,831 2, Shares in issue (m) 2,327.5 Major shareholder 54.6% Market cap. (HK$ m) 34,214.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ('000) 5, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 16.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.0)/(10.4)/25.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.6)/(10.6)/14.2 Bloomberg Q % % 83.8% 2.08% 5.6% 39.0% 3.1% 257 (HK$ m) A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 2008E Zhang Wenxian

259 Q 2.33% % 0.66% % 24% % % HIT , ,8008% %-17% % 5.8% 31.9% 9.4% 13.2% 0.6% 37.8% 7.1% 3.5% 8.9% 17.1% 27.3% 16.1% 9.8% 17.3% % 15.2% % 13.6% % 1.0% % 1.0% %

260 Guotai Junan (HK) P/B % 2.7%2006 NAV % NAV 1.4% NAV Valuation Attributable NAV NAV per share Percentage of Basis Stake (HK$ m) (HK$) NAV 10% 100% 7, % 2006E *20X 65%-73.5% 3, % 2006E *18X 98.1%-100% % 2006E *25X 51%-100% % 10% 100% 7, % 2006E *25X 51% 6, % 2006E *11X 51%-100% % 10% 100% 4, % HIT 2006E *15X 5, % Total NAV: 37, % A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (0.9) ,676 2,408 2,431 2,456 2,707 (196) (188) (190) (192) (211) 1,480 2,220 2,242 2,265 2,496 (%) ,240 1,712 2,242 2,265 2,496 (%) (2.4) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$)

261 0363 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 3,429 1, A 6,025 1, (26.3) F 6,849 1, F 7,792 1, F 8,873 1, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 56.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) 13,843.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 1, Net gearing (%) Cash P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 19.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.7)/(13.6)/(4.0) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.4)/(13.8)/(15.4) Bloomberg A % % 18.2% A SH4 50% % 33.60% % 43.3% % Zhang Wenxian

262 Guotai Junan (HK) % 10% % 12% % 27.2% 40% % 4.5%2006 NAV NAV28.3% NAV20% NAV 10% 2006 NAV NAV NAV per share NAV (HKD m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (%) 261 (100%) DCF 2, (30%) 2006Ex Ex12 1, , (20%) 2005Ex (9.98%) 1X2006BV 2, (24.9%) 2006Ex (25%) 2006Ex , EX12 3, , Ex (100%) 2006Ex12 6, (93.3%) 2006Ex10 1, (30.8%) 2006Ex , NAV 19,

263 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,429 6,025 6,849 7,792 8,873 (1,505) (3,720 ) (3,425 ) (3,896 ) (4,436 ) 1,924 2,306 3,425 3,896 4, (742 ) (830 ) (944 ) (1,074 ) (1,223 ) (402 ) (717 ) (815 ) (927 ) (1,055 ) (145 ) (10 ) (11 ) (12 ) (14 ) 900 1,301 2,098 2,387 2,718 (19) (82 ) (58 ) (58 ) (58 ) (33) ,685 1,450 2,195 2,541 2,938 (186 ) (194 ) (307 ) (356 ) (411 ) 1,499 1,256 1,888 2,185 2,527 (122 ) (228 ) (674 ) (641 ) (675 ) 1,378 1,028 1,214 1,545 1, (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 900 1,301 2,098 2,387 2,718 (95 ) (3 ) (3 ) (3 ) (4 ) (86) (103 ) (152 ) (209 ) (275 ) (17) (226 ) (197 ) (33 ) (36 ) (39 ) 9 3 (105 ) (113 ) (122 ) 218 (362 ) (181 ) (206 ) (325 ) (377 ) (436 ) 65 (26 ) ,768 1,963 2,188 (2,479) (144 ) (388 ) (350 ) (1,000 ) (1,000 ) (1,000 ) (1,000 ) (1,000 ) (1,000 ) (27) (640 ) (597 ) (641 ) (486 ) (618 ) (741 ) (306 ) (650 ) 14 (118 ) (241 ) 1, ,039 5,186 5,765 6,547 7,393 5,186 5,765 6,547 7,393 8, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,078 2,630 3,518 4,406 5, ,140 2,391 2,394 2,397 2,401 4,367 3,868 3,871 3,875 3, ,000 1,500 1, ,157 11,662 13,544 14,941 15, ,216 1,299 1,388 1,485 1,487 1,540 1,645 1,758 1,880 1, ,766 6,040 6,547 7,393 8, ,450 10,310 9,590 10,638 11,804 20,607 21,972 23,134 25,579 27,658 1,227 1,298 1,475 1,678 1, ,241 1,320 1,570 1,820 2,070 2,564 2,683 3,045 3,498 3, ,224 1,474 1, ,081 1,224 1,474 1,724 3,516 3,764 4,269 4,972 5, ,519 16,279 17,082 18,141 19,375 15,615 16,376 17,179 18,238 19,472 1,476 1,832 1,687 2,370 2,482 20,607 21,972 23,134 25,579 27,658 (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (24.4 ) (23.4 ) (22.4 ) (23.1 ) (24.1 ) (%) (x) (%) (x)

264 Guotai Junan (HK) 0392 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 9, A 11, F 12, (17.1) F 13, F 15, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 52.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 7,407.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 2, / 06 Net gearing (%) Cash P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 16.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.5)/(19.6)/14.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.2)/(19.8)/3.0 Bloomberg NAV % , % 52.05% % 47.7% A % % 15% Zhang wenxian

265 % 12.7% % % 3.1%2006NAV % 235.3% NAV 10% NAV NAV NAV NAV/sh NAV % (HK$ m) (HK$) (%) DCF@10% 3, DCF@10% DCF@10% 1, , X2006F 4, X2006F , Book value Market value x2006F Book value NAV 10,

266 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 9,666 11,001 12,399 13,770 15,299 (%) (7,006 ) (8,025 ) (8,990 ) (9,983 ) (11,092 ) 2,660 2,975 3,410 3,787 4,207 (%) (835 ) (1,166 ) (1,315 ) (1,460 ) (1,622 ) (1,095 ) (1,037 ) (1,169 ) (1,298 ) (1,443 ) (226 ) (255 ) (287 ) (319 ) (354 ) ,051 1,226 1,361 1,512 (138 ) (156 ) (216 ) (215 ) (215 ) 56 (27 ) (28 ) (30) (31 ) ,006 1,142 1,295 (229 ) (175 ) (230 ) (260 ) (282 ) ,013 (162 ) (144 ) (303 ) (237 ) (297 ) (%) (17.1 ) (HK$) (%) (17.1 ) (HK$) (%) (x) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,006 1,142 1, (305 ) (220 ) (200 ) (196 ) (219 ) (207 ) (143 ) (118 ) (116 ) (129 ) (189 ) (203 ) (230 ) (260 ) (282 ) ,298 1,658 1,712 1,933 2,160 (1,058 ) (1,366 ) (1,500 ) (1,500 ) (1,500 ) (258 ) (47 ) (47 ) (47) (47 ) (143 ) (30 ) (33 ) (37) (41 ) (883 ) (373 ) 145 (736 ) (646 ) (1,036 ) (276 ) (174 ) (187 ) (187 ) (195 ) (226 ) (153 ) (208 ) (235 ) (261 ) (290 ) 10 (1,431 ) (698 ) (407 ) (326 ) 425 (147 ) 1, ,188 3,083 3,508 3,418 4,576 5,366 (0 ) ,508 3,418 4,576 5,366 6, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 6,339 8,037 8,763 9,413 9,989 1,891 1,794 1,704 1,619 1, ,884 12,046 12,813 13,508 14,147 4,141 3,508 4,576 5,366 6,554 1,240 1,575 1,775 1,971 2, ,047 1,162 1, ,055 1,189 1,321 1, ,505 7,584 9,146 10,439 12,187 19,390 19,630 21,959 23,946 26, ,166 1,314 1,459 1, ,100 2,505 1, ,596 1,888 2,128 2,363 2,626 5,324 6,000 5,516 5,245 5, , ,723 2, ,465 1,123 1,749 2,524 3,302 7,788 7,123 7,265 7,769 8,466 3,720 4,064 5,946 6,979 8, ,694 8,256 8,542 8,993 9, ,881 8,443 8,748 9,198 9,689 19,390 19,630 21,959 23,946 26,334 (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) /EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) 3.3 (1.0 ) (16.6 ) (24.1 ) (33.5 ) / (%) (x) (%) (x)

267 0882 HK$4.775 NAV 39.0% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2, A 2, (21.5) F 2, (13.9) F 3, (20.0) F 3, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 62.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 4,629.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 4, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.600/2.850 Est. NAV (HK$) 7.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.6)/(10.7)/64.7 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.3)/(10.9)/53.1 Bloomberg , % % 10.0% % 81.6% 20% 24.46% Zhang Wenxian

268 Guotai Junan (HK) % 6.7% % 20% % % 15% % 6.7% EPS % % 2.1% P/B NAV % NAV 39.0% 26.1% NAV 24.6% NAV10% % 16.8% 10.3% 51.1% 40.7% 25.2% 29.8% % 2006 NAV 2006NAV (%) NAV (HK$ m) NAV/sh (HK$) NAV (%) , , X2006F xBV X2006F , (90) (0.09) (1.2) NAV 7,

269 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,102 2,239 2,698 3,026 3,457 (1,203) (1,479) (1,565) (1,755) (2,005) ,133 1,271 1, (169) (11) (13) (15) (17) (359) (389) (469) (526) (600) (28) (10) (11) (13) (15) (56) (98) (88) (88) (88) (2) (14) (2) (2) (2) 1, ,004 1,121 (137) (73) (183) (201) (235) (300) (52) (228) (383) (403) (%) (12.0) (16.6) 14.7 (HK$) (%) (21.5) (13.9) (20.0) 14.7 (HK$) (%) (x) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (58) 0 (2) (1) (2) (56) (40) (53) (23) (56) (94) (88) (88) (88) (67) (53) (183) (201) (235) 143 (125) (151) (169) (193) 1, (186) (137) (777) (360) (360) (12) (20) (117) (273) (1,659) (360) (360) (840) (58) (73) (85) (91) (105) (76) (5) (20) (34) (36) (960) 215 1, ,424 1,956 2,505 2,839 3,225 1,956 2,505 2,839 3,225 3, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,189 5,002 5,202 5,402 5, ,023 1,295 1,567 1, ,659 7,168 7,597 8,066 8, ,956 2,505 2,839 3,225 3, ,042 3,212 3,491 3,956 4, , ,320 1,136 1,330 1,415 1,555 1,653 2,045 2,420 2,795 3, ,720 2,125 2,500 2,875 3, ,135 5,750 6,164 6,486 6,856 5,226 5,841 6,261 6,583 6,953 1,435 1, ,149 1,256 (HK$) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) 3.5 (1.6) (0.5) (%) (x) (x)

270 Guotai Junan (HK) 269 Alan Lam % % 18.5% (0144)(1199) 14.4% 26.4% (2880) (3382) 45 1, % 39.8% 8.7% (0525) A %(0598) % 17.1% 10.6% (1138) 12.4% (2866) % (1919) 2.5% 2006 HRCI 635.4% CCFI 7.4% (FEFC) (TSA) 6-7 TEU % 15% 07 P&O % 4.1% % 4.7% % 33.8% 30.6% 11.6% (BHP) 19%

271 % 064.5% 6% (1138) (1138) (1919) (2866)37.6% 16.2% 21.6% (1919) (2866) (1138) % 5% (1919) (2866)06 6.2% 12.5% 5% 0.5% 2% 13% ,000 GDP 1.8% % (1138) % 16% 6% 131% 8% 20% 06 4,220 TEU 22.6% 23.9% 06

272 Guotai Junan (HK) % % 38.2% 49.8%39% % 11.1% % 2052% 300 TEU (1199) (0144) % 08 70% 10% (2880) 11%-12% TEU 14.7% ,500 TEU (0144)(1199) (DPI) 0429 P&O PSA (0013) 20% CKYH %

273 P/BV % 10.4% 06 (1199)(3382)(2880)06 90%(0144) P/BV (0525) (0525) (0598) 272 (1919) (2866) P/BV P/BV0.67 P/BV 0.5 (1138) (1919) (2866) P/B ROE (HK$) (X) (X) (X) (X) (HK$) (%) (%)

274 Guotai Junan (HK) 0144 HK$21.30 G A Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A 2,059 2, A 2,972 2, F 3,774 2, F 4,537 3, F 4,986 3, Shares in issue (m) 2,293,1 Major shareholder 55.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 48,842.7 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 5, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 18.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.8)/(1.4)/42.0 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (5.4)/(1.6)/30.6 Bloomberg A (0144)30% 70.18% G( SS) A 1 G % 26.5% A % 5.1% 6.1% % 1.3% A 163 TEU % ,808 TEU 24.2% 12.8% % 1,008 TEU % 22%TEU % 140 Alan Lam

275 300 TEU 21 TEU7%A 3% % 24% 0612% A PEG % (1199) PEG % PEG A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,972 3,774 4,537 4, ,012 1,188 2,191 2,412 2,726 3,131 (174) (292) (468) (520) ,587 2,797 3,269 3,798 (54) (30) (32) (34) 2,533 2,767 3,237 3,764 (169) (97) (102) (108) 2,364 2,670 3,135 3, (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F , (64) (292) (468) (520) (380) (1,136) (1,299) (1,470) 920 1,206 1,090 1,252 (67) (221) (677) (738) (53) (22) (30) (32) (2,248) (1,516) (487) (511) (6,454) (1,802) (1,077) (1,239) (8,320) (3,292) (1,539) (1,724) ,531 3, ,000 (135) ,449 3, ,000 (1,066) (629) 2, ,072 1, ,072 1, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 8,082 9,382 9,632 9,882 15,223 18,231 20,942 24,060 1,137 1,112 1,087 1, , ,072 1, ,419 31,144 35,262 37, ,792 11,204 11,904 12, ,792 11,885 14,065 13,727 1,468 1,565 1,667 1,775 16,159 17,693 19,530 21, ,940 17,474 19,311 21,497 16,159 17,693 19,530 21, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

276 Guotai Junan (HK) 0525 HK$2.70 A A Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 3, A 3, F 3, F 10,591 1, F 11,195 1, Shares in issue (m) 4,335.6 Major shareholder 66.99% Market cap. (HK$ m) 11,706.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 7, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.525/2.000 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.0)/(12.9)/(5.9) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.6)/(13.1)/(16.7) 275 Bloomberg AA A A 1 A A A % A0719% 50% % % 2, % 5.7% % % 11, % 9.3% Alan Lam

277 065 12% % 1,1568.6% 16.2% %0616.1% % 19.8% 11.1% 2% % % 06 P/BV A 2006F 2007F 2008F 3,277 3,483 10,591 11,195 EBITDA 1,052 1,213 2,919 3, ,968 2, (23) 10 (193) (222) ,834 1,942 (104) (129) (293) (309) ,540 1, ,542 1, (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) * 06 7, , ,000 5, ,000 2, ,000 3, ,000 1, ,000 1, (0.5) 1, (0.1) (0.2) 0 (1.0) (0.3)

278 Guotai Junan (HK) 0598 HK$ % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER Recurrent Recurrent DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) EPS (RMB) PER (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 21, A 28, F 33, F 37,396 1, F 40,863 1, (2.6) Shares in issue (m) 4,249.0 Major shareholder 57.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 10,197.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 8, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.700/2.050 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.1 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (1.0)/(26.2)/(2.0) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (0.7)/(26.4)/13.4) Bloomberg (0598) 06 15% 20% 20% 10% 20% % % 05 17% 13% % e A ( SS) % % % e- e 20% e06 10 A2.5 5,381.6 A %64.41% % 2.8% 3.2% 3.04 Alan Lam

279 %-2.3% 0611% % % 5% 22% 12 14% 3.005% % A 2006F 2007F 2008F 28,577 33,653 37,396 40,863 1,225 1,363 1,468 1, (33) ,204 1,417 1,554 1,869 (377) (439) (482) (580) 1,045 1,215 1,305 1,290 (188) (259) (277) (289) ,028 1, (%) (2.6) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,965 2,043 2,475 2, (306) (307) (333) (342) (85) (36) (38) (40) (314) (300) (299) (301) (370) (439) (482) (580) (803) (1,800) (500) (500) (153) (859) (1,387) (87) (87) (59) (15) (83) 1,608 1,275 4,723 5,130 5,047 6,656 5,130 5,047 6,656 7, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,950 3,873 3,457 3, ,774 6,296 6,623 7,158 5,130 5,047 6,656 7,931 1,198 1,320 1,373 1,423 14,736 17,237 18,825 20,346 4,175 5,770 6,419 6, ,691 1,725 1,730 1, ,223 7,851 8,505 9,118 1,193 1,416 1,655 1,904 7,320 7,970 8,664 9,323 4,249 4,249 4,249 4,249 3,071 3,721 4,415 5,074 7,320 7,970 8,664 9, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

280 Guotai Junan (HK) 1138 HK$ P/BV 1.9 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 6,452 1, A 8,515 2, F 9,213 2, F 9,699 2, F 10,229 3, Shares in issue (m) 3,326.0 Major shareholder 50.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 17,794.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 10, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 6.750/5.150 Est. NAV (HK$) 8.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.7)/(12.3)/(10.1) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.4)/(12.5)/(21.5) Bloomberg % (1138) % 5, % % % 29.2% 46.6% % % 40% 05 47% % % (1919) (2866) 3.35% 5 4.9% 90% 06 59% 1 18% BITY BIDY333% 44% %4.5% Alan Lam

281 2010 (VLCC) VLCC 42, % P/BV A 2006F 2007F 2008F 8,515 9,213 9,699 10,229 4,180 4,317 4,589 4,836 3,258 3,380 3,524 3, (111) (82) (86) (19) 3,147 3,298 3,438 3,670 (453) (495) (516) (550) 2,694 2,803 2,922 3,119 (3) (1) (1) (1) 2,691 2,802 2,921 3, (%) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 4,133 4,040 4,778 4,772 (119) (82) (86) (19) (499) (998) (998) (998) (618) (1,080) (1,084) (1,017) (456) (41) (495) (516) (2,501) (3,531) (1,931) (1,531) (2,501) (3,531) (1,931) (1,531) (634) 140 (521) (569) (65) (84) (45) (25) 6 0 (0) (0) (693) 56 (565) (593) (135) (556) 702 1,115 1,313 1, ,324 1, ,324 2, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 11,468 14,003 14,801 15, , ,324 2, ,387 15,860 17,179 18, ,440 1,619 1, ,514 3,181 2,576 2, ,849 12,653 14,576 16,697 3,326 3,326 3,326 3,326 7,523 9,327 11,250 13,371 10,849 12,653 14,576 16, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

282 Guotai Junan (HK) 1199 HK$ TEU 59.6% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) ( %) (x) (US$) (%) (%) 2004A A F F (1.2) F Shares in issue (m) 2,218.1 Major shareholder 53.0% Market cap. (HK$ m) 36,044.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 5, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 17.4 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.2/6.2/7.6 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 2.6/6.0/(3.8) Bloomberg %(1199)8.694 DVB TEU 59.6% P/BV 1.12 TEU 1, % 57.9 TEU 3,0001-3% 06 5, TEU70%30% (1919) 05 38% 80% 0615% 06 31% 1 20%3 30% 4.65 (0363) 10% % % 15% Alan Lam

283 (1199) ,227 TEU 22.9% % % 52%37% (1199)16.23% ( SZ/ SZ) % % 5.18 TEU 1,400 2, , % A B 16.23% 37.26% % A % DPI 0429 P&OPSA % (1111)20% 1,003(0662) 2.5 P/BV 06 P/BV % PEG % (0144)/ PEG %9% PEG % 0612%

284 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (32) (27) (12) (12) (22) (21) (21) (20) (3) (3) (3) (3) (%) (1.2) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (33) (27) (12) (12) (181) (159) (200) (212) (2) (112) (53) (60) (60) (2) (1) (1) (1) (237) 567 (175) (167) (68) (117) (117) (117) (0) (305) 450 (292) (283) (343) (100) (306) (75) 25 (1) (13) (23) (35) (214) (48) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1, ,082 1,288 1, ,855 2,743 2,819 3, ,880 2,107 2,280 2, ,852 2,079 2,252 2,462 1,880 2,107 2,280 2, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) % 1.2% 2.7% 34.6% 10 (0.5) (1.0) 5 0 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) 18.5% 26.3% Reuters

285 1919 HK$ P/BV % 4.257% 4.70 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 32,189 4, n.a. n.a A 39,166 5, F 45,996 4, (24.4) F 53,046 3, (28.4) F 59,168 4, Shares in issue (m) 6,140.0 Major shareholder 63.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 22,871.5 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 14, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 4.250/2.950 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/Since IPO) 4.2/5.7/(12.4) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/Since IPO) 4.5/5.4/(23.1) Bloomberg % (1919) % TEU7% 13% 4.8% TEU13.5% 0.1%22% 14% CCFI 7.4% %09 8 5,100 TEU TEU3.9% 5, % % % 31% Alan Lam

286 Guotai Junan (HK) % 1%06 1% 26% 5% 06 32% CKYH (2866) 15% 24% 065.0% ,500 TEU TEU (1199) 60% % 8% P/BV % 2.0% 1.1%8.0% 4.77 P/BV P/BV % % % % 5% 6.2% F 2007F 2006F % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

287 2866 HK$ P/BV 0.67 P/BV Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS Diluted EPS Diluted PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 22,364 4, A 28,375 3, (25.1) F 33,001 2, (32.3) F 34,785 1, (29.4) F 36,725 1, Shares in issue (m) 6,030.0 Major shareholder 59.87% Market cap. (HK$ m) 11,879.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 19, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.55/ EV/EBITDA (x) 3.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.3)/(25.0)/(38.0) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.9)/(25.2)/(49.4) 286 Bloomberg (2866) % TEU 5.2% %TEU 5, % (CCFI)10% % TEU TEU 14%4,000 TEU % 3.8% % TEU9.9% 4,996(1919) 68.9% 21.6% 58.1% % , %1-2 40% % 35.7% Alan Lam

288 Guotai Junan (HK) % 08 45% % P/BV 0.67 P/BV 6 14% P/BV A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2006F 2007F 2008F 28,375 33,001 34,785 36,725 5,521 4,576 3,964 4,292 4,646 3,288 2,478 2, (342) (390) (437) (569) 4,309 2,905 2,050 2,059 (724) (479) (338) (340) 3,585 2,426 1,711 1,719 (2) (2) (1) (1) 3,583 2,424 1,710 1, (%) (10.7) (32.3) (29.4) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,304 3,322 4,364 4,076 (194) (279) (336) (419) (1,686) (724) (485) (342) (3) (0) (0) (0) (1,877) (998) (816) (755) (163) (479) (338) (340) (5,089) (3,500) (2,600) (4,000) (5,088) (3,500) (2,600) (4,000) , ,500 (834) (853) (817) (842) (616) 147 (817) 658 (2,440) (1,508) (207) (360) 5,863 3,423 1,916 1,708 3,423 1,916 1,708 1,348 20,784 23,696 25,510 28, ,183 4,767 4,718 5,370 3,423 1,916 1,708 1, ,005 31,052 32,673 36,061 (3,267) (3,568) (3,713) (3,974) (960) (886) (886) (886) (7,512) (7,629) (7,879) (9,629) (637) (637) (637) (637) (12,376) (12,720) (13,115) (15,126) (37) (39) (40) (41) 16,592 18,292 19,518 20,894 6,030 6,030 6,030 6,030 10,562 12,262 13,488 14,864 16,592 18,292 19,518 20, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

289 2880 HK$ Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 1, n.a. n.a A 1, n.a. n.a F 1, (33.6) F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) 2,926.0 Major shareholder 62.1% Market cap. (HK$ m) 10,533.6 Free float (%) 33.0 Average vol. ( 000) 37, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) 1.7 High/low after IPO (HK$) 4.675/2.575 Est. NAV (HK$) 4.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/Since IPO) (5.9)/39.8 Relative % change in price (1m/Since IPO) (5.5)/45.4 Bloomberg (2880) , TEU , % 96.7% %20.3% 824.5% 90% % (0857) 1, % 312.8% % % 3, % % % Alan Lam

290 Guotai Junan (HK) % 50 20% % 40 15% % 10% % 10 5% 0 48% 0 0% % 70% % 8% % TEU % 23.0% 9% % %0641.5% PSA %

291 1,000 43% 6, % 5, , % 3, % 2, % 1, % % % 14% 12% 10% % 24% % % % (3382) 11.6% 5% PEG P/BV PEG % % %

292 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,269 1,505 1,780 1, , (0) (100) (167) (167) (167) (43) (156) (204) (227) (13) (%) 14.1 (33.6) A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,053 1,163 (160) (167) (167) (167) (43) (156) (204) (227) (141) (1,714) (1,240) (343) (37) (79) (115) (250) (171) (1,784) (1,341) (547) 71 2, ,306 (430) 0 0 (385) (56) (180) (220) (3,096) (104) 1,985 (180) (220) (838) , , A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,486 7,009 8,022 8, , ,039 9,430 9,757 10, ,492 3,492 3,492 3, ,595 4,128 4,177 4, ,343 5,201 5,479 5,812 1,960 2,926 2,926 2, ,275 2,553 2,886 2,343 5,201 5,479 5, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) n.a (%) , % 7% 32% % % 23%

293 3382 HK$ % % A Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) ( %) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2004A n.a. n.a A n.a. n.a F 1, (27.4) F 1, F 1, Shares in issue (m) 1,786.7 Major shareholder 62.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 4,064.7 Free float (%) 37.2 Average vol. ( 000) 33, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) 1.6 High/low after IPO (HK$) 2.725/1.880 Est. NAV (HK$) 2.7 Absolute % change in price (1m/since IPO) 21.0/21.0 Relative % change in price (1m/since IPO) 21.4/21.4 Bloomberg (3382) (0882) TEU TEU % 17.3% % 100% % 33% 64% 60%66% 9%-10% Alan Lam

294 Guotai Junan (HK) , TEU TEU % 630% A %( SS) A (9%)(20%) %12.4%8.1% % 5% 7.5% , % TEU 23.8% 5.5% 2, % 253 TEU 06 30% ,000 TEU % % (DCF) 12.1%5% P/BV 1.8(2880) (3378) P/BV PEG 1.1 A0622.9P/BV 1.7PEG 2.5 (2880) 06A A A PEG 1.5 AA ( SS) % % A %

295 % A 2006F 2007F 2008F 898 1,097 1,218 1, (6) (7) (7) (8) (9) (25) (34) (38) (45) (0) (1) (1) (1) (%) 90.1 (27.4) A 2006F 2007F 2008F (7) (7) (8) (9) (23) (34) (38) (45) (141) (767) (357) (80) (76) (110) (241) (131) (842) (466) (320) 0 1, (23) (70) (80) (0) (0) 1,163 (70) (80) (255) (68) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,361 2,048 2,321 2, ,786 3,159 3,320 3, ,426 2,787 2,938 3, ,426 2,609 2,759 2,944 1,426 2,787 2,938 3, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) n.a (%)

296 Guotai Junan (HK) 0297 HK$ % Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 11, A 19, F 23, F 29,398 1, F 36,336 1, Shares in issue (m) 5,807.9 Major shareholder 53.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 15,536.3 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 24, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.600/1.210 PEG 0.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.7)/5.9/55.5 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (2.4)/5.7/44.1 Bloomberg % % % % 13.72% 15.64% 14.58% 95% 5% % % 8-9% 4-4.5% , % 34% 57% 147% 7% % 14 1, , % 20% 295 2,500 12% 2,000 10% 2,000 10% 1,500 1, % 404 9% 552 1,063 8% 6% 4% 2% P 0% 45%9 Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan20% 50% 45% % 40% Grace Liu

297 % % 25% (000792) 20% 1,500 40% % % ,000 40% 50% % % , % % % 4, % 5, % % % % % , % % %50% % 15% 1.7% 3% 7% 1-930% % % 11.24% 8.96% 0.04% 3.05% 12.23% 1.40% 1.11%

298 Guotai Junan (HK) Potashcorp Mosaic Potashcorp ,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May % 17% 41.20% % 24.6% 45% PEG Bloomberg PER PB PEG % 13.7% 15.6% %

299 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 11,837,185 19,248,665 23,394,827 29,397,940 36,335,854 (10,812,113 ) (17,705,872 ) (21,519,717 ) (27,041,676 ) (33,423,512 ) 1,025,072 1,542,793 1,875,111 2,356,264 2,912,342 83,423 67,701 75,562 71,632 73,597 (316,130 ) (394,898 ) (479,959 ) (603,117 ) (745,452 ) (118,799 ) (223,204 ) (271,282 ) (340,893 ) (421,344 ) 673, ,392 1,199,431 1,483,886 1,819,143 (47,115 ) (112,376 ) (100,174 ) (120,441 ) (64,053 ) 41,614 49, , , , , ,957 1,201,661 1,602,796 2,006,409 (141,254 ) (137,533 ) (192,266 ) (256,447 ) (351,122 ) 526, ,424 1,009,395 1,346,349 1,655,287 (15,987 ) (13,003 ) (16,802 ) (22,411 ) (28,054 ) 510, , ,593 1,323,938 1,627, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 454, , ,744 1,019,502 1,292,790 24,932 6,280 5,539 7,940 14,657 (47,115 ) (112,376 ) (100,174 ) (120,441 ) (64,053 ) (143,268 ) (191,119 ) (134,586 ) (243,625 ) (333,565 ) 288, , , , ,828 (56,011 ) (255,445 ) (235,674 ) (106,053 ) (265,134 ) (94,011 ) 0 (247,365 ) (742,096 ) ,782 71, , ,923 (50,839 ) 192,904 1,095 1,390 1,538 (200,861 ) (20,759 ) (410,262 ) (679,214 ) (87,673 ) 87, , ,262 (15,838 ) 822, (116,913 ) (137,665 ) (183,620 ) (133,300 ) (627,458 ) (74,661 ) 177,672 (569,088 ) 0 482, ,247 (112,375 ) (132,053 ) (257,508 ) (191,574 ) 40,007 (752,708 ) (44,066 ) (150,577 ) 2,687 24,169 69, , ,064 66,551 69,238 93,407 (482 ) 3, ,064 66,551 69,238 93, , A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 507, , , ,068 1,086,357 42,659 41,924 40,278 38,696 37, , , ,947 1,459,848 1,535,244 16, , , , , ,597 1,692,193 2,140,837 2,983,021 3,232,197 3,902,571 4,798,149 5,277,964 5,805,760 6,386, , , ,710 1,029,091 1,293,156 1,598,341 1,052, , , , , ,417,893 1,723,307 2,165,508 2,676, ,064 66,551 69,238 93, ,854 5,907,967 7,583,142 8,651,196 10,050,967 11,680,814 6,826,564 9,275,335 10,792,033 13,033,988 14,913, , , , ,766 1,900,788 2,589,979 3,444,907 4,585,225 5,986, , , , ,685 1,900,866 3,474,658 4,350,338 5,536,611 6,980, , , , , ,322 2,056,302 3,660,713 4,553,195 5,761,879 7,233, , , , , ,141 4,154 21,385 22,454 23,577 24, , , , , ,896 1,431,328 2,448,312 2,693,143 2,962,458 3,258,703 1,456, , , , , ,392 50, , , , ,417,893 1,723,307 2,165,508 2,676,568 1,639,005 1,025, ,799 1,119, ,922 4,635,407 5,359,149 6,005,704 7,006,251 7,533,569 4,770,262 5,614,622 6,238,838 7,272,109 7,679,465 6,826,564 9,275,335 10,792,033 13,033,988 14,913,011 1,272,560 2,223,993 2,645,492 3,044,716 4,147,245 2,191,157 3,916,186 4,786,328 6,027,737 7,379, % 0.6% 5.0% 94.3% 95.0%

300 Guotai Junan (HK) 0763 HK$ % 07 3G PE Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 21,220 1, A 21,576 1, (14.5) F 24,129 1, (5.4) F 31,671 1, F 41,231 2, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 37.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 22,404.8 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 1, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) / Est. NAV (HK$) 33.8 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (11.1)/(20.3)/(0.9) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (10.8)/(22.0)/(16.3) Bloomberg PHS PSTN 20% CDMA GSM IPTV CDMA PHS PSTN TD-SCDMA 8 TD %10.4% TATA(Tata-Indicom) ZESCOTATA CDMA XZESCO % 51.9% CDMA CDMA GSM 60% % 058.0% Tiffany Feng

301 國泰君安 ( 香港 ) 海外業務經營成本高于國內業務 公司的海外業務覆蓋 100 多個國家, 為了加強海外業務的競爭力, 公司已將絕大部分銷售及售后服務平台遷移至當地 但由于海外業務分散 各地區銷售規模不足, 且各地政策不統一, 導致海外業務的分銷及行政等經營成本高于國內 05 年公司分銷及行政成本占營業額 19.8%, 預計 年將略高于 20%, 高于國際設備商約 14% 的平均水平 由于經營成本已不具備相對优勢, 這將使公司日后的海外市場拓展由低价策略轉向提供更多售后服務 此外, 公司也需尋找海外合作 協同海外銷售來降低成本 國際同業并購使公司的研發成本优勢面臨壓力 与國際設備商相比, 公司的研發成本相對較低, 占收入比例約 9.1%, 預計 年也將低于 10%, 但國際同業則介于 10-18%, 摩托羅拉和諾基亞該比例較低, 主因手机產品比重較大 ( 約占 60%), 而設備系統產品比重較大 ( 超過 90%) 的愛立信研發占收入比例高達 16% 公司的低研發成本优勢主要是由于大部分研發在國內進行, 但諾基亞与西門子 阿爾卡特与朗訊 愛立信与馬可尼 (Marconi) 等國際設備商開始借助合并來削減成本, 尤其是研發成本, 如諾基亞与西門子設備系統部門的合并, 以及阿爾卡特與朗訊的合併預計可減少的開支將分別占營業額 10% 和 6.8%, 同時市場預期, 目前成本相對較高 效益較低的北電 (Nortel) 將成為下一個并購目標 因此, 在國際設備商的并購潮下, 我們認為公司的低研發成本优勢將面臨壓力 2005 年各設備商研發成本佔營業額比重 2005 年各設備商分銷及行政成本佔營業額比重 中興 9.1% 中興 19.9% 平均 13.2% 平均 14.0% 阿爾卡特 11.0% 阿爾卡特 15.2% 300 愛立信 摩托羅拉 10.0% 16.1% 愛立信 摩托羅拉 11.1% 10.5% 諾基亞 11.2% 諾基亞 10.4% 北電 17.6% 北電 22.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 資料來源..各公司年報 國泰君安 ( 香港 ) 資料來源..各公司年報 國泰君安 ( 香港 ) 同業并購也對公司的全業務优勢形成挑戰 在固网移動网融合的趨勢下, 全球電信運營商都在朝著綜合型服務方向發展, 因此需要設備商提供更全面的產品及服務, 公司是全球為數不多的能夠提供 2G 3G 無線通信 光通信 數据通信 交換及接入 電信軟件系統等全業務產品的設備制造商, 具備滿足客戶 一條龍 產品服務需求的优勢 但是, 競爭對手的合并在產品線方面 尤其是固网和移動网方面也形成強強互補, 我們認為中興除了要鞏固其產品線的完整性优勢外, 還需要進一步加強与同業的技術合作來提高其產品及服務的競爭能力 預計今年盈利將下跌 5.4% 考慮到今年國內市場繼續萎縮將引起公司無線通信產品收入下降, 并將因此造成公司整体盈利能力下降, 我們預計今年盈利將下跌 5.4% 不過, 我們仍然預計 07 年公司將受益 TD 業務的大規模開展, 并獲得至少 30% 的 TD 市場分額, 帶動盈利恢复增長 39.2% 維持 中性 評級 以 6 月 23 日收市價 港元計算, 現價相當於 18.9 倍的 06 年預測市盈率, 与國際同業約 18 倍的估值水平基本相當 我們維持 中性 的投資評級 目標价維持 30.0 港元, 相當于 24.6 倍和 17.7 倍 年預測市盈率 該目標价含有對公司 07 年將有顯著 3G 收入入賬的預期 另外, 目標价較 NAV 估值折讓 11.3%, 以反映行業的周期性風險, 公司海外業務的風險性, 以及我們對公司能否保持長遠競爭优勢的疑慮

302 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2006F 2007F 2008F 21,576 24,129 31,671 41,231 8,931 8,881 13,942 21,481 2,753 3,165 3,482 3,761 3,353 4,217 4,998 5,567 4,333 4,885 5,431 5,837 2,206 2,981 3,817 4,586 (14,102) (15,980) (20,780) (26,740) 7,474 8,149 10,891 14, ,224 (1,960) (2,240) (3,003) (3,992) (3,186) (3,636) (4,836) (6,378) (1,095) (1,206) (1,584) (2,062) (129) (96) (94) (122) 1,786 1,674 2,304 3,204 (176) (137) (164) (178) 1,606 1,537 2,140 3,026 (180) (203) (283) (520) 1,426 1,334 1,858 2,505 (138) (116) (162) (218) 1,288 1,218 1,696 2, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 1,606 1,537 2,140 3, (1,854) 911 (2,611) (176) (137) (164) (178) (251) (203) (283) (520) (240) (240) (227) (316) (44) (286) 2,661 (299) 3,844 (804) (851) (958) (1,041) (207) (231) (304) (395) (87) 68 (45) 36 (1,067) (1,014) (1,306) (1,400) (767) 585 (199) 406 (735) 585 (199) 406 (2,088) 2,233 (1,804) 2,849 7,509 5,397 7,630 5,825 5,397 7,630 5,825 8, A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,471 2,834 3,196 3, , ,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 4,002 4,512 5,093 5,725 2,240 2,519 3,554 3,675 4,687 5,229 7,786 8,029 1, , ,689 4,566 6,714 6, ,397 7,630 5,825 8,675 18,462 20,981 25,363 28, ,270 6,291 8,460 8, ,911 2,428 3,221 2,900 3,050 3,892 4, ,817 12,059 15,972 16, ,618 1,037 1, ,251 11,229 12,698 14, A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

303 0981 HK$ PB PS Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS EV/EBITDA ROE End 12/31 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) ( %) (x) (US$) (x) (%) 2004A A 1,171 (112) (0.0061) (255.1) n.a (3.6) 2006F 1, n.a F 2, , F 2, Shares in issue (m) 18,184.4 Major shareholder 10.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 18,548.1 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 58, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 1.760/0.950 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.3)/(12.1)/(39.6) Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.9)/(12.3)/(51.0) Bloomberg , , ,347, % 20.2% Gartner %20% 157, % %15.4% % 47% 11% 13% % Elpida M-bit DDR IC Insights % % TD-SCDMA WCDMA CDMA G HDTV 05 Wu Xianfeng

304 Guotai Junan (HK) , % % 068% Gartner Dataquest05 2.6% % %IC Insight 0632% SMG 06 3%29%06 1Q06 5.4% 303, %93% 60% % 90%

305 PB PS 06 07PE PB PS PB PS 2 (23/06/06) 05PE 06PE 07PE 05PB (USDm) 05PS 2330 TT , TT , HK 1.02 n.a , NBV A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 975 1,171 1,666 2,182 2,636 (721) (1,082) (1,391) (1,680) (1,898) (78) (79) (100) (120) (132) (46) (36) (47) (57) (63) (8) (18) (20) (22) (21) (23) (41) (40) (40) (25) (15) 0 (20) (22) (26) (171) (174) (227) (260) (267) 82 (84) (26) (38) (52) (50) (0) (0) (0) (2) (4) 71 (112) USD (0.0061) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 90 (112) (16) (211) ,094 1,370 (1,839) (873) (1,100) (1,000) (1,000) (0) 8 7 (1,827) (860) (1,100) (992) (993) 1, (327) 162 (21) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F ,047 1,306 1,464 1, ,312 3,286 3,619 3,795 3, ,384 4,583 5,038 5,370 5, , ,158 1,442 1, ,275 1,519 2,001 2,145 1,931 3,109 3,026 3,037 3,225 3,642 17,934 18,184 18,278 18,278 18, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) 8.5 (7.2) ROE (%) 3.1 (3.6) EV/EBITDA Net Gearing (%) P/B

306 Guotai Junan (HK) 1072 HK$ % % 10.1% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 2, , A 3, F 4, F 4, F 4, Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 48.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 5,760.0 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 1, Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 19.00/5.85 Est. NAV (HK$) 16.9 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (7.2)/(5.8)/73.8 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (6.6)/(6.4)/62.8 Bloomberg ,306MW % 48.6% % % % , % 12.8% % 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3, ,000 5,000 2,000 1, A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 0 0 Jim Luo

307 % , % 6.6%25% % % % % 27% % 23.4% 15.1% 22.3% % 10.1% % E 2007E 2008E (RMB m) 3,323 3,822 n.a. (RMB m) 4,180 4,716 4, % 23.4% n.a n.a EPS (RMB ) n.a. EPS (RMB ) % 22.3% n.a % 5.1% NAV 3% 28%

308 Guotai Junan (HK) 1133 HK$ % 29.6% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 10, A 18, F 22, F 24,531 1, F 22,638 1, (8.7) Shares in issue (m) 1,274.5 Major shareholder 55.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) 10,577.9 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 9, / 06 Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 9.100/2.775 Est. NAV (HK$) 10.6 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 6.4/44.3/127.1 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 7.0/43.8/161.1 Bloomberg ,363MW % %59.8 % A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F Jim Luo

309 % % % 068%-10% % % 29.6% F 2007F 2008F 308 (RMB m) 21,454 24,251 25,582 (RMB m) 22,324 24,531 22, % 1.2% (11.5%) (%) (%) (5.50%) (5.20%) (5.00%) (5.50%) (5.20%) (5.00%) (RMB m) (RMB m) 930 1,206 1, % 37.6% 17.9% EPS (RMB ) EPS (RMB ) % 37.6% 17.9% NAV 10.3%14.5%

310 Guotai Junan (HK) 2727 HK$ A Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A 24,502 1, A 34,400 1, F 40,196 2, F 46,445 2, F 51,014 2, Shares in issue (m) 11,891.6 Major shareholder 51.6% Market cap. ( 000) 30,323.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 26, Net gearing (%) Cash P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.700/1.710 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.2 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.7)/(16.4)/47.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) (9.4)/(16.6)/36.0 Bloombery ,000MW %-23% % % 10%-15% % 17.9% 10.1% 16.5% 10.3% 10.1% (RMB m) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Zhang Wenxian

311 A %6, % 24% % 36% % 21.3% 6.2% 6.7% A A % 15.5% 18.6% 18.6% 28.8% % 14.7% % P/BV % 2.1% % % NAV 12.5% NAV EBIT 58.7% 28.4% 8.5% 3.3% 1.1% 70.2% 17.0% 1.9% 0.3% 10.6%

312 Guotai Junan (HK) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 24,502 34,400 40,196 46,445 51,014 (%) (19,323) (27,694) (32,701) (37,785) (41,423) 5,179 6,706 7,495 8,660 9,591 (%) ,137 1,312 1,442 (830) (950) (1,521) (1,749) (1,922) (2,362) (2,660) (3,369) (3,952) (4,355) (433) (620) (495) (572) (701) 2,393 3,370 4,237 4,843 5,457 (117) (67) (47) (33) (23) ,500 3,478 4,501 5,165 5,834 (573) (1,003) (1,298) (1,490) (1,682) (838) (803) (1,039) (1,193) (1,347) 1,089 1,672 2,164 2,483 2, (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 2,500 3,478 4,501 5,165 5, (247) (247) (311) (355) (400) (385) (354) (3,553) (3,410) (2,031) (2,190) (1,601) (1,915) (3,358) (1,971) (2,214) (1,619) 9,179 2,086 3,021 3,090 2,153 (486) (414) (536) (615) (694) ,935 (1,111) 3,402 3,716 4,633 (1,322) (1,947) (2,300) (2,150) (2,500) (7,507) (224) (348) (625) (2,323) (258) (1,095) (1,181) (863) (624) (358) , , (7,887) (2,135) (3,395) (3,331) (3,363) 2,750 4, (530) (491) (32) (29) (26) (656) (483) (488) (584) (670) 528 (1,504) (117) (64) (144) ,143 2,230 (520) (613) (696) 191 (1,016) (513) (227) 574 8,312 8,503 7,487 6,974 6,746 8,503 7,487 6,974 6,746 7, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 5,097 6,351 7,924 9,240 10, ,535 4,636 3,866 4,208 4,595 9,931 11,302 12,105 13,763 15,690 8,870 12,053 14,084 16,273 17,874 4,055 5,986 6,995 8,082 8,877 11,433 10,881 6,974 6,746 7,320 12,823 14,942 16,999 19,307 20,994 37,181 43,862 45,051 50,408 55,064 47,112 55,164 57,156 64,171 70,755 3,815 5,142 6,008 6,943 7, ,147 1,316 1,486 24,375 25,581 27,736 29,892 31, , ,081 33,262 35,704 39,033 41, ,779 33,979 36,414 39,737 42,101 5,827 6,306 4,674 6,468 8,553 9,189 11,892 11,892 11,892 11,892 (684) 2,500 4,176 6,075 8,209 8,505 14,879 16,068 17,967 20,101 47,111 55,164 57,156 64,171 70,755 (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) 4.2 (28.9) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (157.9) (90.3) (43.2) (38.1) (37.2) (%) (x) (%) (x)

313 2345 HK$ % 18.3% Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A A 1, F 2, F 3, F 3, Shares in issue (m) 1,438.3 Major shareholder 47.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 3,703.6 Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) 40, Net gearing (%) Cash P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 3.300/2.375 Est. NAV (HK$) 3.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 3.0/n.a./n.a. Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 3.4/n.a./n.a. Bloomberg % 49.0% % 285.1% % 20%31.5% 20.0% 1, Zhang Wenxian

314 Guotai Junan (HK) , % 12% % 30%64.3% 30.0% % 88.2% 20%-30% 80% 16% % 20% 10.6 % 20.0% % 10.0% , % % % 18.3% % 19.7% 21.6% 21.6% 27% % 18.3% %-30% 30% P/BV % 2.2% NAV 10% NAV

315 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 850,942 1,425,348 2,532,890 3,032,989 3,516,697 (%) (631,872 ) (1,059,808 ) (1,984,830 ) (2,376,392 ) (2,781,028 ) 219, , , , ,668 (%) ,874 34,865 25,132 30,194 35,196 (16,951 ) (33,495 ) (46,438 ) (55,550 ) (64,814 ) (111,465 ) (144,740 ) (177,145 ) (212,024 ) (247,116 ) (9,948 ) (12,548 ) (19,498 ) (23,409 ) (27,347 ) 96, , , , ,588 (15,172 ) (17,202 ) (6,848 ) (14,686 ) (16,002 ) 10,349 8,525 13,425 16,097 17,552 91, , , , ,138 (26,428 ) (55,481 ) (90,906 ) (107,249 ) (103,953 ) 65, , , , ,185 63, , , , ,532 (%) ,599 10,619 11,996 13,397 14,653 9,451 4,511 70,136 82,972 94,360 (RMB) (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 91, , , , ,138 15,172 17,202 6,848 14,686 16,002 (10,349) (8,525 ) (13,425 ) (16,097 ) (17,552 ) 50,388 58,482 59, , ,609 (22,282) (142,813 ) (175,736 ) (62,003 ) (55,027 ) 9,362 (103,408 ) (178,800 ) (80,735 ) (78,089 ) (1,423) 145, , , ,602 (12,378) (34,006 ) (90,906 ) (107,249 ) (103,953 ) 10,376 (11,225 ) , , , , ,730 (145,221) (289,729 ) (538,600 ) (384,100 ) (467,000 ) 11,756 32, ,625 (64,522 ) 14, (128,840) (321,536 ) (524,600 ) (384,100 ) (467,000 ) 14, ,000 1,390, ,462 53, , , , , ,500 (332,576) (397,070 ) (14,672) (16,195 ) (19,498 ) (23,409 ) (27,347 ) 19,302 (13,152 ) , ,875 1,639, , ,153 14,732 46,949 1,540, , ,883 97, , ,065 1,699,186 1,949, , ,065 1,699,186 1,949,862 2,215, A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 542, ,453 1,115,347 1,395,880 1,733, , , , , , , , , , ,093 94, , , , ,730 1,588 15,515 27,571 33,014 38,279 86,857 62, , , , , , ,065 1,699,186 1,949,862 2,215,745 8,299 14,341 (105,351 ) (213,508) (328,197 ) 79, , , , ,449 11,430 4,422 7,858 9,410 10,910 43,517 62, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,464 1,548,658 1,861,431 2,180,783 28,926 17, , , ,305 30,983 27,751 24,976 22,478 20, ,380 3,275 5,820 6,969 8, , ,289 51, , , , , ,501 1,731,984 2,139,433 2,574, , ,640 1,438,286 1,438,286 1,438,286 34,794 (3,772 ) 916,150 1,122,586 1,354,147 41,090 70,911 82,907 96, , , ,779 2,437,342 2,657,176 2,903,389 (RMB) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%) (71.3 ) (47.4 ) (44.7 ) (%) (x) (x)

316 Guotai Junan (HK) 8243 HK$ %2, % P/B 1.5 Turnover Net profit EPS EPS PER DPS Yield ROE End 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2004A (43.7) A F F F Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder 48.8% Market cap. (HK$ m) Free float (%) Average vol. ( 000) Net gearing (%) P/B (x) NBV per share (HK$) Weeks high/low (HK$) 0.470/0.160 PEG (X) 2.3 Absolute % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 32.9/24.0/120.4 Relative % change in price (1m/3m/1yr) 33.2/23.8/109.0 Bloomberg , 1.6% % ,0002, NBV1.407 NBV % 9.2%2,136 2, % P/B 1.5 Dennis Yao

317 A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (152 ) (219 ) (246 ) (265 ) (289 ) (21) (26 ) (29 ) (31 ) (33 ) (24) (32 ) (36 ) (39 ) (42 ) (6 ) (9 ) (8 ) (8 ) (8 ) (4 ) (5 ) (6 ) (6 ) (7 ) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F (3 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (51) (40 ) (14 ) (11 ) (13 ) 14 (8 ) (4 ) (5 ) (6 ) (6 ) (7 ) (87) (30 ) (40 ) (40 ) (40 ) (30) (20 ) (20 ) (20 ) (20 ) (117 ) (50 ) (60 ) (60 ) (60 ) (15 ) 0 0 (7 ) (7 ) (5 ) (5 ) (6 ) (20 ) (5 ) (6 ) (43) (20 ) (23 ) (2 ) (1 ) A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F A 2005A 2006F 2007F 2008F 31.4% 29.4% 28.6% 28.5% 28.2% 13.5% 11.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.4% 8.3% 6.4% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% ROE 7.7% 7.9% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3%

318