Transcription

1 (002457) ~23.00RMB 24.00~27.00 RMB / / + PCCPPCPRCP PVC-U /26.71% PE /26.82% ( ) ( ) ( ) - (%) () 4.38 (%) ( % % 68%, 30% 40% RCP PE 2001 RCP % 2% S [email protected] [email protected] EPS PE DCF 24~ PE 22~24 20~ A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E YoY(%) 45.74% 41.85% 17.35% 11.37% 11.18% YoY(%) 22.23% 57.60% 32.39% 14.42% 12.99% (%) 28.96% 32.78% 30.90% 30.28% 30.63% (%) 14.44% 16.05% 18.11% 18.60% 18.91% ROE(%) 21.36% 23.93% 11.53% 11.65% 11.64% EPS( /) P/E() P/B()

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3 1DCF A PE RCP PCPPCCP /14

4 EPS PE DCF 24~ PE 22~24 19% 20~23 20% DCF 16~27 1DCF WACC(%)g 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 4.65% % % % % % % PE 33 2 PEG % 2 EPS PE 2009A 2010E 2011E 2009A 2010E 2011E 2010E % SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ PEG 4/14

5 SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ SZ WIND A 2010 PE 35 3A EPS PE A 2010E 2011E 2009A 2010E 2011E SZ SZ WIND 4 5/14

6 5 PCCP PCP RCP (PVC-U) (HDPE) /14

7 % 1,300 60% 2, ,060 PCCP 2,600 2 PCCP CEIC 3.2. CEIC % PCCPPCP RCP 7/14

8 % PEPVC PVC PE PP ,000 5, /14

9 PCCPPCP 95% 40% RCP 60% 30% PCCP PCP RCP PVC-U PE PVC-C 9/14

10 RCP PE RCP PE A PE 2155 RCP 90km PCCP-LPCCP-E PCP PCCP PCCP-E PCCP-L 90km 55km 40km 20km Mpa , PE ( )" ( ) /14

11 90km DN RCP 6 15 RCP ( ) ( ) ( ) 5.65 PCP90 PCCP PCPPCCP ( ) ( ) ( ) 6.05 PCCP-LPCCP-E 20km PCCP-LDN km PCCP-E DN ( )" ( ) /14

12 %57%61% A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E PCP 37.0% 35.2% 35.2% 34.2% 33.2% 32.2% PCCP 34.1% 36.2% 36.7% 35.2% 33.7% 33.7% RCP 30.4% 40.2% 36.0% 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% PE 20.7% 17.9% 23.7% 20.8% 20.8% 21.8% PVC 22.8% 25.8% 31.4% 26.7% 28.0% 28.7% A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E PCP / PCCP / 1, , , , , ,602.5 RCP / PE / PVC / A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E PCP 84% 69% 81% 90% 86% 86% PCCP 45% 46% 76% 90% 83% 83% RCP 86% 70% 64% 90% 78% 77% PE 57% 54% 60% 60% 60% 60% PVC 75% 85% 52% 52% 63% 63% A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E ( , % 41.8% 17.3% 11.4% 11.2% ( % 34.2% 20.6% 12.4% 10.6% ( % 60.5% 10.6% 9.2% 12.5% 12/14

13 A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E ( ,059.3 YoY 0.0% 45.7% 41.8% 17.3% 11.4% 11.2% PCP YoY N/A 27.2% 7.8% 39.3% 6.5% 13.9% km YoY N/A -13.2% 8.3% 37.8% 7.1% 13.9% % 20.4% 17.8% 13.5% 16.0% 15.3% 15.7% PCCP YoY N/A 38.4% 416.0% 9.6% 15.1% 19.7% km YoY N/A 38.2% 294.9% 85.0% 15.1% 19.7% % 11.0% 10.4% 38.0% 35.5% 36.7% 39.5% RCP YoY N/A 51.0% -25.8% 77.5% -10.0% 21.3% PE km YoY N/A -9.0% -14.5% 75.4% -13.7% 25.2% % 18.7% 19.4% 10.1% 15.3% 12.4% 13.5% YoY N/A 14.8% -5.5% 20.5% 7.8% -2.1% 3, , , , , ,845.4 YoY N/A 14.8% 11.6% 20.5% 7.8% -2.1% % 14.1% 11.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.4% 6.5% PVC YoY N/A 36.0% 12.4% 2.1% 23.1% -1.7% 14, , , , , ,549.5 YoY N/A 11.1% 24.7% 1.6% 19.1% 0.6% % 32.7% 30.5% 24.2% 21.0% 23.2% 20.6% 13/14

14 : : 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EBITDA EPS A 2009A 2010E 2011E % 45.7% 41.8% 17.3% 11.4% % 20.2% 62.3% 32.8% 14.4% % 22.2% 57.6% 32.4% 14.4% % 29.0% 32.8% 30.9% 30.3% : % 14.4% 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E ROE(%) 21.4% 23.9% 11.5% 11.7% ROIC(%) 25.7% 25.0% 22.3% 21.6% % 50.4% 45.7% 26.6% 25.8% % 31.37% 25.65% 24.80% 25.41% P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 14/14

15 : % %20% % % : % %10% % % (0755)