Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Peak Sport (1968 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.41 Signing of NBA All-Star player to enhance brand equ

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1 股票研究可选消费 2015 年 9 月 18 日匹克体育 (1968 HK) 买入 ( 维持评级 ) 目标价格 : 2.41 港元与 NBA 全明星球员签约, 将提高品牌价值, 缓解顾虑与德怀特霍华德签约将提高品牌价值德怀特霍华德是八次 NBA 全明星球员, 他所属的球队休斯敦火箭是中国最受欢迎的 NBA 球队之一他在微博上有很多粉丝, 特别是腾讯微博上, 他的粉丝数目较科比布莱恩特和林书豪要多 ( 图表 1) 他在新浪微博上的粉丝数目是托尼帕克的 3 倍, 在腾讯微博上是后者的 10 倍, 这意味着他将取代托尼帕克成为匹克在中国最受欢迎的 NBA 签约球员我们相信此次签约将巩固匹克的品牌价值与 NBA 中国的合作于 2014 年十月告终之后, 匹克一直寻求签约一名 NBA 全明星球员以推广其篮球类产品与德怀特霍华德的签约 1) 应允了管理层的许诺,2) 将缓解投资者对国际化策略下公司在中国市场减少投入赞助资源的顾虑叶建中, CFA 证监会中央编号 ADT599 albertyip@gfgroup.com.hk 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦楼赞助乐视体育音摇跑乐视体育本月将于郑州开展其自有品牌跑步活动音摇跑, 其后年内将在不同城市举办另外八个跑步活动音摇跑为 5 公里趣味跑活动, 目标群体为音乐和跑步爱好者匹克将在此次活动期间展示及售卖其产品新加坡领先运动服饰连锁店成为分销商在上周举行的 2Q16 销售会上, 匹克与 Sports Link 签订分销协议管理层表示,Sports Link 是新加坡最大的运动服饰连锁店此举将扩大匹克在新加坡的分销网络同店销售趋势得益于稳定的需求和持续的店铺网络优化, 我们预期公司在七月和八月将维持同店销售增长动力 (2Q15 实现中单位数增幅 ) 维持买入评级和目标价 2.41 港元匹克的股价在过去三个月已经下跌 28%, 表现差于所有同业跑步与篮球系列是匹克主要的产品品类, 占 1H15 鞋类销售的 60% 以上最新的赞助活动有望助力匹克的品牌推广, 并缓解投资者对中国市场赞助资源减少的顾虑公司现时股价对应 9.2 倍市盈率 ( 同业平均水平为 12.2 倍 ),2015 年度股息收益率为 7.1% ( 同业平均水平为 4.2%), 仍属低估图表 1: NBA 明星微博粉丝数目股价表现 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 HSI 匹克资料来源 : 彭博主要数据 9 月 17 日收盘价 ( 港元 ) 1.95 发行股份数目 ( 百万股 ) 主要股东许景南 (37.4%) 市值 ( 十亿港元 ) 个月平均成交数量 ( 百万股 ) 周最高价 / 最低价 ( 港元 ) 2.94/1.38 资料来源 : 彭博公司估值资料来源 : 新浪微博, 腾讯微博, 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 营业额 ( 百万人民币 ) 资料来源 : 公司资料, 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 新浪微博粉丝腾讯微博粉丝 ( 百万 ) ( 百万 ) 赞助商 Lebron James na 1.1 Nike Dwyane Wade Li Ning Jeremy Lin Adidas Kobe Bryant Nike Steve Curry Under Armour Dwight Howard Peak Kevin Garrett Anta Tony Parker Peak Chandler Parsons Anta Rajon Rondo Anta Klay Thompson Anta Luis Scola Anta Derrick Rose Adidas 净利润 ( 百万人民币 ) EPS EPS 同比 ( 人民币 ) 市盈率扣除净现金市盈率股息率每股净资产 ( 人民币 ) 市净率 , , E 3, E 3, E 3, ROE 本页为英文报告原文之概要中英文版本如有不符, 概以英文版本为准

2 Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Peak Sport (1968 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.41 Signing of NBA All-Star player to enhance brand equity and ease concerns Signing of Dwight Howard to enhance brand equity Dwight Howard is an eight-time NBA All-Star player and his team, the Houston Rockets, is one of the most popular NBA teams in China. He has many followers on Weibo, especially Tencent Weibo where his number of followers is greater than Kobe Bryant s and Jeremy Lin s (Fig 1). His followers on Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo are also 3x and 10x that of Tony Parker s, suggesting he will replace Tony Parker to become Peak s most popular endorsed NBA player in China. We believe the signing will enhance Peak s brand equity. After the end of the co-operation with NBA China in Oct 2014, Peak has been seeking to endorse an NBA All-Star player to promote its basketball products. The signing of Dwight Howard 1) delivers what management had promised, and 2) should ease investor concerns that less sponsorship resources should be spent in China, given its internationalization strategy. Albert Yip, CFA SFC CE No. ADT599 albertyip@gfgroup.com.hk GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 29-30/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Sponsorship of LeTV Sports Shake Run LeTV Sports will launch its self-branded running event, Shake Run, this month in Zhengzhou, followed by another eight running events in different cities in Shake Run is a 5km fun run targeting fans of music and running. Peak will showcase and sell its products during the event. Singapore s leading sportswear chain becomes a distributor During the 2Q16 sales fair held last week, Peak signed a distribution agreement with Sports Link. According to management, Sports Link is Singapore s largest sportswear chain. This will expand Peak s distribution network in Singapore. SSS trend We expect SSS momentum (digit growth in 2Q15) to be maintained in Jul and Aug thanks to solid demand and ongoing optimization of its store network. Maintain Buy and TP of HK$2.41 Peak s share price has fallen 28% over the past three months and underperformed all its peers. Running and basketball are Peak s key product categories, contributing >60% of footwear sales in 1H15. The latest sponsorships should help promotion of Peak s brand and ease investor concerns that less sponsorship resources be spent in the China market. Trading at 9.2x P/E (vs peers' average of 12.2x) and with a 7.1% yield (vs peers' average of 4.2%) in FY15, its valuation is still undemanding. Figure 1: NBA stars followers on Weibo Stock performance Sina Weibo Tencent Weibo followers (m) followers (m) Sponsor 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Source: Bloomberg Key data Source: Bloomberg HSI Peak Sep 17 close (HK$) 1.95 Shares in issue (m) Major shareholder Xu Jingnan (37.4%) Market cap (HK$ bn) 4.6 3M avg. vol. (m) W high/low (HK$) 2.94/1.38 Valuation Lebron James na 1.1 Nike Dwyane Wade Li Ning Jeremy Lin Adidas Kobe Bryant Nike Steve Curry Under Armour Dwight Howard Peak Kevin Garrett Anta Tony Parker Peak Chandler Parsons Anta Rajon Rondo Anta Klay Thompson Anta Luis Scola Anta Derrick Rose Adidas Source: Tencent Weibo and Sina Weibo, GF Securities (HK) Turnover (Rmb m) Net profit (Rmb m) Sources: Company data, GF Securities (HK) EPS (Rmb) EPS YoY P/E Ex-net cash P/E Yield BPS (Rmb) , , E 3, E 3, E 3, P/B Page 2 ROE

3 Company report Figure 2: Order book growth for sportswear companies 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 high singledigit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth Anta low-teens mid-twenties mid-teens high-teens low-teens mid-teens Li Ning NA NA NA growth growth growth growth growth growth high singledigit decline digit decline digit decline digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth Xtep 0% 10% decline digit growth growth growth growth growth growth growth mid-teens mid-teens mid-teens mid-teens mid-teens mid-teens mid-teens Peak growth 361 Degrees 11% decline 11% decline 7% decline 8% 11% 11% 16% 18% 15% Source: Company data, GF Securities (HK) Figure 3: SSS trend for sportswear companies Anta Li Ning Xtep Peak 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 mid singledigit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth high-teens growth digit decline digit growth digit growth digit growth growth growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth digit growth 361 Degrees 2% 3% 5% 6% 6% 7.2% Source: Company data, GF Securities (HK) Figure 4: Key assumptions (Rmb m) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Total revenue 2,613 2,841 3,087 3,363 3,664 growth % -10.0% 8.7% 8.6% 8.9% 9.0% China market 2,080 2,189 2,401 2,609 2,835 growth % -17.3% 5.2% 9.7% 8.7% 8.7% Overseas market growth % 37.2% 22.5% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% Gross profit 927 1,079 1,167 1,275 1,392 Gross margin 35.5% 38.0% 37.8% 37.9% 38.0% Selling & distribution expenses ratio 12.8% 12.6% 12.0% 12.4% 12.7% Administrative expenses ratio 9.6% 10.3% 8.8% 8.4% 8.4% Operating profit margin 13.8% 15.9% 17.6% 17.6% 17.5% Effective tax rate 37.4% 34.4% 33.8% 33.5% 33.5% Net profit growth % -21.3% 31.3% 19.1% 8.3% 7.8% Net profit margin 9.3% 11.3% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% Payout ratio 108.8% 62.3% 70.0% 55.0% 55.0% Sources: Company data, GF Securities (HK) estimates 3

4 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Company report Figure 5: P/E band 8 (HK$) x 14x 12x 10x 7x Sources: Bloomberg, GF Securities (HK) estimates Figure 6: Sportswear sector valuation table Price TP Mkt Cap P/E (x) EPS growth Revenue growth Yield P/B (x) ROE Sportswear Ticker Rating (Sep ) (HK$) (HK$ m) FY14E FY15E FY16E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY15E Anta 2020 HK Buy , Peak 1968 HK Buy , Xtep 1368 HK Buy , (21) China Dongxiang 3818 HK NR 1.97 na 10, (54) (6) (11) Li Ning 2331 HK NR 3.63 na 6,844 na na na na Hosa 2200 HK NR 2.88 na 4, na na na na Degrees 1361 HK NR 2.49 na 5, Pou Sheng Intl 3813 HK NR 1.22 na 6,562 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Average Source: Company data, GF Securities (HK) estimates, Bloomberg #Company year-end in Mar. Its financial year 2014/2015/2016/2017 data are shown as FY14/15E/16E to facilitate data comparison. Excluding Li Ning and China Dongxiang, Peak s peer average FY15/16 P/E is 12.2x/10.3x. 4

5 Company report Figure 7: Financial statements Income statement Balance sheet Year end Dec 31 (Rmb m) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Year end Dec 31 (Rmb m) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Revenue 2,613 2,841 3,087 3,363 3,664 Fixed assets Cost of sales (1,686) (1,762) (1,920) (2,088) (2,272) PPE Gross profit 927 1,079 1,167 1,275 1,392 Lease prepayments Deposits for acquisition of land use rights Other income Intangible assets Selling & distribution expenses (334) (359) (371) (417) (465) Deferred tax assets Administration expenses (252) (291) (270) (284) (307) Operating profit Current assets Net finance cost Inventories Profit before tax A/C receivables ,042 Income tax expense (146) (168) (195) (208) (225) Prepayments Net profit Pledged deposit EPS (Rmb) Term deposit 1,000 1,400 1,800 2,100 2,400 Cash and cash equivalents 1,933 1,850 2,285 2,234 2,258 Growth rates 4,624 5,084 6,183 6,708 7,304 Revenue (10) Net profit (21) Total assets 5,448 5,874 6,951 7,456 8,032 EPS (21) Current liabilities Margin & ratios A/C payables Gross margin Other payables OP margin Amount due to a related party Net margin Bank borrowings ,171 1,389 Effective tax rate Current tax liabilities Payout ratio ,010 1,190 1,496 1,743 2,010 Cash flow statement Non-current liabilities Year end Dec 31 (Rmb m) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Bank borrowings Deferred tax liabilities Profit before tax Depreciation and amortization Net finance cost (30) (37) (32) (29) (28) Equity (Reversal of)/provision for impairment of receivables Shareholders' equity 4,122 4,247 4,951 5,124 5,340 Write-down/(reversal write-down) of inventories (3) Others Total liabilities & equity 5,448 5,874 6,951 7,456 8,032 Change of working capital (45) (94) (73) Tax paid (85) (176) (182) (202) (216) Financial ratios Operating cash flow Year end Dec 31 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Capex (75) (25) (27) (27) (27) Current ratio Interest received Quick ratio (Increase) in pledged deposit (47) (155) (190) (144) (156) (Increase) in time deposit with mat. >3 months (775) (400) (400) (300) (300) A/C receivable turnover days Others A/C payable turnover days Investing cash flow (855) (534) (558) (407) (410) Inventory turnover days Change of borrowings Asset turnover Interest paid (13) 0 (28) (36) (45) Total assets/total equity Dividend paid (217) (200) (233) (247) (236) Net cash (Rmb m) 2,514 2,699 3,393 3,497 3,666 Share issue Others (1) (20) ROE Financing cash flow ROA Net change of cash flow (310) (83) 436 (52) 24 Forex changes 6 (0) Sources: Company data, GF Securities (HK) estimates 5

6 公司报告 2015 年 9 月 18 日评级定义基准指数 : 香港恒生指数时间范围 : 12 个月公司评级买入预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 15% 以上增持预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 5-15% 持有减持行业评级推荐中性谨慎分析师承诺预期公司股价表现相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 -5% 和 +5% 之间预期公司股价表现弱于基准指数 5% 以上预期行业将跑赢基准指数 10% 以上预期行业相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 -10% 和 +10% 之间预期行业将跑输基准指数 10% 或以上主要负责编写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法此外, 本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与, 现在不与, 未来也将不与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关权益披露 (1) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 自营交易部及 / 或其关联公司并未持有本研究报告所述公司之股份 (2) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 及 / 或其关联公司跟本研究报告所述公司在过去 12 个月内并没有任何投资银行业务的关系 (3) 分析师及其联系人士并无担任本研究报告所述公司之高级职员, 亦无拥有任何所述公司财务权益或持有股份免责条款本研究报告由广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司 ( 广发证券 ( 香港 ) ) 分发本研究报告仅供参考之用, 并不构成证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用本研究报告所评论的证券可能在某些地方不能出售本研究报告绝无意图让居住在法律或政策不允许本研究报告流通或者分发的司法权区的人士阅读本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性广发证券 ( 香港 ) 不对因使用本研究报告的内容而导致的损失承担任何责任, 除非法律法规有明确规定投资涉及风险, 证券的价值及收益可能会波动, 过去的表现不能代表未来的业绩本研究报告所评论的证券或表达的意见未必适合个别人士之投资目标财政状况或个人需要, 客户不应以本研究报告取代其独立判断或仅根据本研究报告做出决策如有需要, 应先咨询专业意见广发证券 ( 香港 ) 可发出其他与本研究报告所载信息不一致及有不同结论的报告本研究报告反映研究人员的不同观点见解及分析方法, 并不代表广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或者其关联公司的本研究报告所载资料意见及推测仅反映研究人员于发出本研究报告当日的判断, 可随时更改且不予通告我们的销售人员交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略我们的自营交易部可能会做出与本研究报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或其关联方或其各自的董事高级人员分析员及雇员可能持有本研究报告所评论之任何证券的权益读者在阅读本研究报告时应留意有关权益披露 ( 如有披露 ) 版权所有 : 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司未经广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦楼电话 : Fax: 网站 : 6

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79