Equity Research Information Technology Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$4.23 Cash cow and dividend yield play What's ne

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1 股票研究信息技术 2016 年 3 月 23 日建滔积层板 (1888 HK) 买入 ( 维持评级 ) 目标价格 : 4.23 港元现金牛 + 高分红标的最新动态 :2015 年净利润同比增长 13% 至亿港元, 比我们预测的亿港元高 12% 扣除部分一次性收益, 基本净利润为亿港元大宗商品价格下滑, 毛利率提升 2015 年公司核心产品覆铜面板出货量同比增长 1%, 月均出货量 960 万平方米随着去年大宗商品价格下降, 公司产品平均售价同比下滑约 5% ( 铜占公司销货成本约 30%) 由于公司覆铜面板价格下滑较大宗商品价格下降要缓慢, 因而毛利率从 15% 上升至 17% 何伟基, CFA 证监会中央编号 AFP308 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 2930 楼各产品分部表现参差由于服务器基站智能手机等高端产品需求增加, 销售占比 64% 的环氧玻璃纤维覆铜面板销售 2015 年同比增长 2% 纸覆铜面板销售占比 16%, 多用于家电中,2015 年销售同比下滑 22% 上游物料销售占比 12%, 包括铜箔玻璃纱玻璃纤维布等, 销售同比下滑 11% 2016 年展望及策略 2015 年公司投资 5.12 亿港元用于扩展新增产能 2016 年资本支出或将在相若水平即 5 亿港元左右管理层正积极物色收购机会, 而非进一步扩大自身产能另外, 管理层表示, 比亚迪对公司铜箔产品需求强劲 ( 用于电动车电池 ) 总体而言, 我们预计公司核心覆铜面板产品 2016 年销量同比取得单位数增幅分红政策稳定公司现金流保持强劲, 资产负债表优良净负债比率从 2014 年的 18.0% 下降到 2015 年的 14.5% 管理层维持一贯的分红政策, 公司 2015 年将派发分红每股港元, 分红比例为 42%(2014 年为 43%) 目前股息率超过 5% 股价表现 ( 港元 ) 厂房重建项目隐含价值公司在深圳龙华有一处重建项目, 位于未来深圳地铁 6 号线附近原本的厂房将重建用作居住及商业用途按建筑面积 39 万平方米及 30,000 元人民币 / 平方米的保守均价估计, 项目价值超过 117 亿元人民币按 10% 的净利润率计算, 项目有望在未来五年产生 12 元人民币的净利润估值吸引, 维持买入评级公司目前股价对应 0.7 倍市净率及 8.3 倍 2016 年预测市盈率我们的新目标价定在 4.23 港元 ( 先前为 4.94 港元 ), 用我们的 2016 年 EPS 预测计算, 是基于 10 倍 2016 年目标市盈率 ( 先前为 13 倍 ) 该目标价隐含 21% 的股价上升空间下行风险主要包括消费电子需求放缓, 以及铜价剧烈波动 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 资料来源 : 彭博主要数据 3 月 22 日收市价 ( 港元 ) 3.51 发行股数 ( 百万股 ) 3,000 主要股东建滔化工 (74.6%) 市值 ( 十亿港元 ) 个月平均交易量 ( 百万股 ) 周最高 / 最低价 ( 港元 ) 4.18 /2.70 资料来源 : 彭博公司估值营业额同比 ( 百万港元 ) 净利润 ( 百万港元 ) EPS 同比 * ( 港元 ) 资料来源 : 公司资料, 广发证券 ( 香港 ) * 2016E EPS 同比增幅是根据 2015 年基本 EPS 为港元计算 P/E ( 倍 ) P/B 每股分红股息率 ( 倍 ) ( 港元 ) ROE 净负债率 , , (7) ,770 (4) 1, E* 13, , E 14, , E 14, , cash 本页为英文报告原文之概要中英文版本如有不符, 概以英文版本为准

2 Equity Research Information Technology Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$4.23 Cash cow and dividend yield play What's new? 2015 net profit rose 13% YoY to HK$1,265m, 12% ahead of our forecast of HK$1,130m. Underlying net profit was HK$1,212m, excluding some oneoff gains. Margin expansion on easing commodity prices Shipment volume in the company s core copper clad laminates (CCL) business rose 1% YoY in 2015, with average monthly shipments of 9.6m sqm of CCL. ASP fell by about 5% YoY, along with the reduction in commodity prices during the year (copper accounts for about 30% of COGS). Gross profit margin rose to 17.0%, up from 15%, as KBL dropped prices of CCL at a slower rate than the fall in commodity prices. Joseph Ho, CFA SFC CE No. AFP308 josephho@gfgroup.com.hk GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 2930/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Mixed performance by product segment Sales of glass epoxy laminates (64% of sales) grew 2% YoY in 2015, underpinned by demand for highend products including servers, basestations, smartphones, etc. Sales of paper laminates (16% of sales), which are mostly used in home appliances, fell 22% YoY. Sales of upstream materials (12% of sales), including copper foil, glass yarn, glass fibre, etc, fell 11% YoY outlook and strategy The company invested HK$512m in new production capacity in capex will be around a similar level of HK$500m. Management is actively looking for acquisition opportunities, instead of further expansion of its inhouse capacity. Separately, management mentioned strong demand from BYD for its copper foil products (used in car batteries). Overall, we expect low singledigit YoY volume growth for core CCL products in Consistent dividend policy KBL continues to generate strong cash flow and its balance sheet remains healthy. Net gearing declined to 14.5% in 2015, down from 18.0% in Management has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with its 2015 full year dividend of HK$0.177 based on a dividend payout ratio of 42% (2014: 43%). Current dividend yield is over 5%. Stock performance (HK$) Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Source: Bloomberg Key data Mar 22 close (HK$) 3.51 Share in issue (m) 3,000 Major shareholder Kingboard Chemical (74.6%) Market cap (HK$bn) M avg. vol. (m) W high/low (HK$) 4.18 /2.70 Source: Bloomberg Hidden value from plant redevelopment project KBL has a redevelopment project in Longhua in Shenzhen, close to the future Shenzhen Metro line no. 6. The old plant will be developed for residential and commercial use. The project is worth over Rmb11.7bn, based on a gross floor area of 390,000 sqm and a conservative price assumption of Rmb30,000 per sqm. The project could generate net profit of about Rmb1.2bn over the next few years, assuming a net margin for the project of 10%. Undemanding valuation, maintain Buy The stock is trading at 0.7x P/B and 8.3x 2016E P/E. We set a new target price of HK$4.23 (down from HK$4.94), based on a 2016 target P/E of 10x (down from 13x) and our 2016 EPS estimate. Our target price implies upside of 21%. Key downside risks include a slowdown in underlying demand for consumer electronics and rapid fluctuations in copper prices. Stock valuation Turnover (HK$ m) YoY chg Net profit (HK$m) EPS (HK$) YoY* chg P/E (x) P/B (x) DPS (HK$) Dividend Yield ROE Net gearing , , (7) ,770 (4) 1, E* 13, , E 14, , E 14, , cash,* 2016E EPS growth based on 2015 underlying EPS of HK$0.404 Page 2

3 Company report Figure 1: Sales mix by product (2015) Figure 2: Sales by product (HK$ bn) Upstream materials 12% Other 7% Property 9.0 1% Paper laminates 16% Glass epoxy laminates 64% Glass epoxy laminates 2.6 Paper laminates Upstream materials Other Property Figure 3: Yearly sales and margin forecasts Figure 4: Halfyearly sales and margin forecasts E 2017E 2018E ,500 1, H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14* 2H14 1H15 2H Sales (HK$ bn, LHS) GPM (%, RHS) NPM (%, RHS) Net profit (HK$ m) (LHS) GPM (RHS) Figure 5: Global copperclad laminates market shares Figure 6: CCL volume output and ASP Others 51% Kingboard Laminates (China) 14% Shengyi (China) 11% Nan Ya Plastics (Taiwan) 10% E 2017E ITEQ (Taiwan) 6% Panasonic (Japan) 8% Laminate output (no. of sheets m, LHS) Blended ASP (HK$ per sheet, RHS) 3

4 Company report Figure 7: 2015 results summary (HK$m) YoY chg 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 YoY chg Remarks Glass epoxy laminates 7,977 8,172 2% 3,946 4,031 4,275 3,898 8% Average monthly shipments of 9.6m sqm (+1% YoY) Paper laminates 2,586 2,021 22% 1,213 1,373 1,004 1,017 17% Upstream materials 1,695 1,512 11% % Other % Turnover 13,283 12,770 4% 6,432 6,851 6,560 6,210 2% Gross profit 1,997 2,171 1, ,141 1,030 10% Gross margin Margin expansion due to fall in commodity prices Opex to sales Other income/gains Opex (752) (821) 9% (376) (376) (399) (421) 6% Share based payments (2) (2) Other gains Including HK$68m fair value gains on investment prop Operating profit 1,431 1,658 16% % Op. margin Finance costs (102) (117) (51) (51) (53) (64) Pretax income 1,329 1,540 16% % Taxation (193) (269) (95) (98) (152) (118) Effective tax Minority interests (14) (6) (3) (11) (5) (1) Net profit 1,122 1,265 13% % Net margin EPS (fully diluted) HK cents % % DPS HK cents % Payout ratio Stable payout ratio of around 4045% No. of sheet (m) Average monthly shipments of 9.6m sqm (+1% YoY) YoY chg 5% 1% 6% 4% 6% 4% (1 sheet = 1.2 sqm) Blended ASP (per sheet) YoY chg 0% 5% 0% 0% 3% 6% 4

5 Company report Figure 8: Financial statements Income Statement Balance Sheet Year end Dec (HK$ m) E 2017E 2018E Year end Dec (HK$ m) E 2017E 2018E Glass/Paper laminates 10,564 10,193 10,709 11,351 12,032 Cash/ST Investments 2,448 2,840 3,664 4,455 5,274 Upstream materials 1,695 1,512 1,700 1,785 1,874 Account receivables 4,554 4,214 4,392 4,647 4,916 Others ,047 Inventory 1,463 1,388 1,367 1,446 1,530 Turnover 13,283 12,770 13,359 14,134 14,954 Other Current Assets 4,847 6,505 6,505 6,505 6,505 Gross profit 1,997 2,171 2,271 2,403 2,542 Total current assets 13,312 14,947 15,928 17,053 18,226 Other income Property, plant & equip. 5,497 5,275 5,095 4,815 4,535 Selling & distribution exp. (286) (305) (321) (339) (359) Intangible assets Admin exp. (466) (516) (534) (565) (598) Other LT Assets 4,113 2,808 2,808 2,808 2,808 Other expenses/gains Total Assets 22,922 23,030 23,831 24,677 25,569 Operating profit 1,431 1,658 1,656 1,698 1,785 Finance costs (102) (117) (120) (120) (120) ST Debt 2,802 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 Share of profits Trade payables 1,690 1,599 1,671 1,768 1,870 Pretax income 1,329 1,540 1,536 1,578 1,665 Other Current Liabilities 1,707 2,288 2,288 2,288 2,288 Taxation (193) (269) (261) (268) (283) Total current liabilities 6,199 5,068 5,140 5,237 5,340 Minority interests (14) (6) (5) (5) (5) LT Debt 2,232 3,714 3,714 3,714 3,714 Net profit 1,122 1,265 1,270 1,305 1,377 Other LT Liab Minority Interests 1, ,001 Shareholders' Equity 13,300 13,167 13,891 14,635 15,420 Total Equity & liabilities 22,922 23,030 23,831 24,677 25,569 Total debt (ST+LT) 5,034 4,895 4,895 4,895 4,895 Cash Flow Statement Financial Ratios Year end Dec (HK$ m) E 2017E 2018E E 2017E 2018E Pretax profit 1,329 1,540 1,536 1,578 1,665 Margins Tax Paid (193) (269) (261) (268) (283) Gross margin Depr/Amort EBITDA margin Change in working capital (367) 324 (85) (237) (251) Operating profit margin Others Net margin Operational cash flow 1,493 2,329 1,870 1,753 1,811 Return/Profitability Capex (730) (512) (500) (400) (400) ROA Assoc, MI, Invsmt 371 ROE Investment cash flow (359) (512) (500) (400) (400) Balance sheet Net Change in Debt (349) (139) Net gearing cash New Capital Current ratio (x) Dividend (480) (531) (546) (561) (592) Working capital Others (215) Days receivable (days) Financing cash flow (1,044) (670) (546) (561) (592) Days inventory (days) FX and others (69) (755) Days payable (days) Chg in Cash Others Beginning cash 2,427 2,448 2,840 3,664 4,455 Effective tax Ending cash 2,448 2,840 3,664 4,455 5,274 Dividend payout ratio

6 公司报告 2016 年 3 月 23 日评级定义基准指数 : 香港恒生指数时间范围 : 12 个月公司评级买入预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 15% 以上增持预期公司股价表现强于基准指数 515% 持有减持行业评级推荐中性谨慎分析师承诺预期公司股价表现相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 5% 和 +5% 之间预期公司股价表现弱于基准指数 5% 以上预期行业将跑赢基准指数 10% 以上预期行业相对基准指数的变动幅度介于 10% 和 +10% 之间预期行业将跑输基准指数 10% 或以上主要负责编写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法此外, 本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与, 现在不与, 未来也将不与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关权益披露 (1) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 自营交易部及 / 或其关联公司并未持有本研究报告所述公司之股份 (2) 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 及 / 或其关联公司跟本研究报告所述公司在过去 12 个月内并没有任何投资银行业务的关系 (3) 分析师及其联系人士并无担任本研究报告所述公司之高级职员, 亦无拥有任何所述公司财务权益或持有股份免责条款本研究报告由广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司 ( 广发证券 ( 香港 ) ) 分发本研究报告仅供参考之用, 并不构成证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用本研究报告所评论的证券可能在某些地方不能出售本研究报告绝无意图让居住在法律或政策不允许本研究报告流通或者分发的司法权区的人士阅读本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性广发证券 ( 香港 ) 不对因使用本研究报告的内容而导致的损失承担任何责任, 除非法律法规有明确规定投资涉及风险, 证券的价值及收益可能会波动, 过去的表现不能代表未来的业绩本研究报告所评论的证券或表达的意见未必适合个别人士之投资目标财政状况或个人需要, 客户不应以本研究报告取代其独立判断或仅根据本研究报告做出决策如有需要, 应先咨询专业意见广发证券 ( 香港 ) 可发出其他与本研究报告所载信息不一致及有不同结论的报告本研究报告反映研究人员的不同观点见解及分析方法, 并不代表广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或者其关联公司的本研究报告所载资料意见及推测仅反映研究人员于发出本研究报告当日的判断, 可随时更改且不予通告我们的销售人员交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略我们的自营交易部可能会做出与本研究报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策广发证券 ( 香港 ) 或其关联方或其各自的董事高级人员分析员及雇员可能持有本研究报告所评论之任何证券的权益读者在阅读本研究报告时应留意有关权益披露 ( 如有披露 ) 版权所有 : 广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司未经广发证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发香港德辅道中 189 号李宝椿大厦 2930 楼电话 : Fax: 网站 : 6

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914-151014c 21 年 1 月 14 日現價 :HK$2.1 潜在上升空间 :+19% 目标价 :HK$29.8 水泥行業安徽海螺水泥 (914.HK) 華東的一流水泥生產商落后同步领先首次覆蓋財務資料一覽年結 12 月 31 日 213 214 21E 216E 217E 收入 ( 人民幣百萬元 ),262 6,79