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1 * % 30 Kraay 2000 Kuijs % 2008 GDP 43. 9% 2000 GDP 1. 9% % 1 40% GDP % 35. 3% * com anganghu@ mail. tsinghua. edu. cn langxiaojuan@ yahoo. com. cn 107

1 Kraay 2000 1990 2009 2 2 1990 2009 12. 5% 28. 4% 13. 2% 29. 8% 12. 4% 26.

2 1 Kraay % 28. 4% 13. 2% 29. 8% 12. 4% 26. 3% % % 108

3 Modigliani & Brumberg 1954 Ando & Modigliani 1963 Deaton 1992 Modigliani 1970 Loayza et al Modigliani and Cao 2004 Deaton 1992 Bloom et al Lee et al Bloom et al Li et al Kraay 2000 Modigliani and Cao 2004 Horioka and Wan 2007 Ang 2008 Qi and Prime 2009 Wei and Zhang Qian 1988 Modigliani and Cao Ang 2008 Qi and Prime 2009 Meng 2003 Blanchard and Giavazzi 2006 Giles and Yoo Chamon and Prasad 2010 Wei and Zhang Kuijs 2005 He and Cao 2007 Kraay 2000 Modigliani & Cao 2004 Horioka & Wan Modigliani & Cao 2 Modigliani & Cao Horioka & Wan Kraay 3 Modigliani & Cao Kraay 4 Modigliani & Cao Horioka & Wan 1 109

4 Loayza et al Horioka & Wan 2007 Ando & Modigliani 1963 SR it = α 0 + α 1 Growth it + α 2 Demo it + α 3 Life it + γx it + f i + v t + ε it 1 SR 1 Growth = Ando and Modigliani 1963 Bosworth 1993 Loayza et al Bloom et al Li et al Carroll Weil 1994 Mankiw et al Modigliani and Cao 2004 Horioka and Wan 2007 Ang 2008 Kraay 2000 Demo Dep 3 U 4 Deaton 1992 Deaton 1992 Modigliani & Cao 2004 Horioka & Wan 2007 Kraay 2000 Life X = hump-shaped Loayza et al. 2000

5 Rinc Uncertainty Food Rinc 2000 = 100 Loayza et al Schrooten and Stephan 2005 Horioka and Wan 2007 Bailey 1956 Mundell Kraay 2000 AR 1 Kraay 2000 Food Kraay 2000 Kraay SR % Rinc Growth % Uncertainty Food % Dep % Life %

6 2 Bloom et al FE FE FE FE FE FE Life *** *** *** *** *** Growth Dep Rinc Uncertainty *** ** Food ** Observations Number of code * R ** *** 10% 5% 1% t Li et al

7 1 Kraay % Kraay Forward-looking Carroll & Weil 1994 Carroll 1994 Kraay SR it = β 0 + β 1 E t Grow it +1 + β 2 E t Uncertain it +1 + β 3 X it + f i + v t + ε it 2 E t Grow it + 1 i t t t + 1 E t Uncertain it + 1 i t t + 1 ε it t = β 1 β 1 β 2 β 2 Kraay SLS F F Gersovitz 1983 Ogaki et al Atkeson and Ogaki 1996 Kraay

8 Sargan SLS SLS 2SLS 2SLS 2SLS 2SLS Life *** *** *** *** ** Egrowth * Dep Euncertainty Food Observations Number of code First Stage F statistic Ovrid test * ** *** 10% 5% 1% Egrowth Euncertainty t 3 10% Kraay 2000 Modigliani 1970 Kraay

9 % 25. 0% % % Bloom et al Li et al Life 115

10 Abel A Birth Death and Taxes Journal of Public Economics Ando A. and Franco Modigliani 1963 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving Aggregate Implications and Tests American Economic Review Ang James 2009 Household Saving Behavior in an Extended Life Cycle Model A Comparative Study of China and India Journal of Development Studies Atkeson Andrew and Masao Ogaki 1996 Wealth-Varying Intertemporal Elasticities of Substitution Evidence from Panel and Aggregate Data Journal of Monetary Economics Bailey Martin J The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance Journal of Political Economy Blanchard Olivier J. and Francesco Giavazzi 2006 Rebalancing Growth in China A Three-Handed Approach China and World Economy Bloom David E. David Canning and Bryan Graham 2003 Longevity andlife-cycle Savings Scandinavian Journal of Economics Bosworth B. P Saving and Investment in a Global Economy Washington D. C. Brookings Institution. Carroll Christopher D How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption Quarterly Journal of Economics Carroll Christopher D. and David N. Weil 1994 Saving and Growth A Reinterpretation Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Chamon Macos D. and Prasad Eswar S Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Deaton Angus 1992 Understanding Consumption Oxford Clarendon Press. Gersovitz Mark 1983 Saving and Nutrition at Low Incomes Journal of Political Economy Giles John and Kyeongwon Yoo Precautionary Behavior Migrants Networks and Household Consumption Decisions An Empirical Analysis Using Household Panel Data from Rural China Forthcomig in The Review of Economics and Statistics. He Xinhua and Yongfu Cao 2007 Understanding High Saving Rates in China China and World Economy Horioka Charles Y. and Junmin Wan 2007 The Determinants of Household Saving in China A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data Journal of Money Credit and Banking Kraay Aart 2000 Household Saving in China World Bank Economic Review Kuijs Louis 2005 Investment and Saving in China World Bank Policy Research World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Kuijs Louis 2006 How Would China's Saving and Investment Evolve World Bank Policy Research World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Lee R. D. A. Mason and T. Miller 1998 Saving Wealth and Population University of California at Berkeley Processed. Leland Hayne E Saving and Uncertainty The Precautionary Demand for Saving Quarterly Journal of Economics Li Hongbin Jie Zhang and Junsen Zhang 2007 Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries Journal of Development Economics Loayza Norman KlausSchmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servén 1998 What Drive Saving across the World Policy Research Working Paper 2309 World Bank Development Research Group Washington D. C. Processed. Loayza Norman KlausSchmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servén 2000 Saving in Developing Countries An Overview World Bank Economic Review Mankiw N. Gregory David Romer and David N. Weil 1992 A Contibution to the Empirics of Economic Growth Quarterly Journal of Economics Meng Xin 2003 Unemployment Consumption Smoothing and Precautionary Saving in Urban China Journal of Comparative Economics Modigliani Franco 1970 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving and Intercountry Differences in the Saving Ratio In W. A. Eltis M. F. G. Scott and J. N. Wolfe eds. Induction Trade and Growth Essays in Honor of Sir Roy Harrod Oxford Clarendon Press. 116

11 Modigliani F. and R. Brumberg 1954 Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data in Post-Keynesian Economics Rutgers University Press. Modigliani Franco and Shi Larry Cao 2004 The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis Journal of Economic Literature Mundell Robert 1963 Inflation and Real Interest Journal of Political Economy Ogaki Masao Jonathan Ostry and Carmen Reinhart 1995 Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries A Comparison IMF Working Paper 95 /3. International Monetary Fund Washington D. C. Processed. Qian Y Urban and Rural Household Saving in China IMF Staff Papers Qi Li and Penelope B. Prime Market Reforms and Consumption Puzzles in China China Economic Review Schrooten Mechthild and Sabine Stephan 2005 Private Savings and Transition Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries Economics of Transition Wei Shang-Jin and Xiaobo Zhang 2009 The Competitive Saving Motive Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Saving Rates in China NBER Working Paper No Yaari M. E Uncertain Lifetime Life Insurance and the Theory of the Consumer Review of Economics Studies Zhang Jie Zhang Junsen and Lee Ronald 2003 Rising Longevity Education Savings and Growth Journal of Development Economics Life Expectancy and Household Saving in China Liu Shenglong a Hu An'gang b and Lang Xiaojuan b a Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics CASS b Center for China Study Tsinghua University Abstract Based on the life cycle model this paper introduces average life expectancy to test on the impact of life expectancy on China's household saving rate. Through collecting a provincial panel data of China's 31provinces during the result of the empirical studies indicates that the life expectancy had significant positive impacts on household saving rate in China. In the sample period of the growth rate of China's household saving rate there were 4. 2 percentage points resulted from the increase of the life expectancy contributing to 42. 9% of the total growth rate of the household of the saving rate. The results of empirical study of this paper also indicates that the expected future income growth rate had weak negative effects on household saving rate and the impacts of expected future income uncertainty and population dependency ratio can not pass the significant test. Key Words Life Expectancy Household Saving Rate Life Cycle Model Expected Growth Rate Expected Growth Uncertainty JEL Classification D12 D91 E21 117

DID 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 30 1 Leland 1968 Zeldes 1989 Zeldes 1989 Carroll Skinner 1987 Zhang & Wan

DID 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 30 1 Leland 1968 Zeldes 1989 Zeldes 1989 Carroll Skinner 1987 Zhang & Wan 2012 7! 2007 2008 13. 0% 20. 2% 12. 6% 2008 1 1990 2007 2010 2000 2007 20% 25% 2007 2010 80 1999 2007 2008 1 1999 2007 * 610074 zangwenbin@ gmail. com 100871 ggliu@ unc. edu 100871 xufei0505@ hotmail.