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1 3 :1978, ( ) ( ) ( ),,, U,, ( ), :, (governance) (, La Porta et al, 1999) 20 90, ( Barro,1990) Li (1998) Shleifer (1997),, ( ) ( ) ( Qian and Weingast,1997) (,2007), GDP,,,,Blanchard Shleifer (2001), 3,, :200433, :junzh edu. cn,,, 91

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4 : ( ) ( ) ( ) 2002 (,2001) (www. people. com. cn) 30 ( ) 1 Πtenure Πbirthplace Πrotation Πage Πcentral background Πeducation GDP Πpgdp GDP Πrpgdppc Πtenureyear Πinitialage GDP Πpwgdp GDP, GDP GDP, GDP, ( ) ( ), 94

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7 , ( ) 2 OLS (1) (2) , ( Pande,2003 ;Besley, et al.,2005),, 1000,,, 2,, (3) Πtenure Πtenuresq Πbirthplace Πrotation Πcentral Πeducation GDP Πlrpgdppc , , 1 R :,, %, 33, 1 % ; 5 %, 3 10 %,,,,, ( 1 ) 2 1, 4. 96, 2 2 3,, , 3 1 2, , 1991,,, 97

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9 , 5 4, (1) (2) (3) (4) (1978 (1978 (1991 (1991, 2004) 2004) 2004) 2004) U 2, 1991 Πtenure , , Πtenuresq Πbirthplace , 1991, Πrotation , ( Πcentral background ) Πeducation , GDP , Πlrpgdppc , tenure ( 3 ) tenure > 5 ( 4 ), % ; , 5 6, tenure R tenure > 4, : 2 3 4,, (tenure) > 4 ( > 5), (tenure) 4 ( 5),,, 31 (2004),, 4 4,,,,, 1991,,,,, 99

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11 , ( ) ( ), ( ),, ( ) ( ),,, 1, 0, 10 %,, ( )?,, 1, 0,,,, 3 4 5,,,, ( ) 5, 3,, 4,,,,, 5 3,,,,,,, 1991,,?,,,,, ( ) ( ) ( ),,,, U,,,,, 3 (tenure > 3), (tenure) 0, (rotation), 5 %, (rotation), 101

12 :,, ( ),,, 5 ( ),,, ( ),,,??,,, ( ),,,,,, 1996 :, 3, 2004 :, 1,, 2006 :, 5, 1998 :, 3, 1999 :,, (1990), (1999), (2006), www. people. com. cn ( ),2001 :,, 2004 :,, : 2004,, 1, 2007 : :, Barro, R. J., 1991, Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2) : Besley, T. and A. Case, 1995, Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choice? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (3) : Besley, T. and A. Case, 2003, Political Institutions and Policy Choices : Evidence from the United States, Journal of Economic Literature, 41 (1) :7 73. Besley, T., T. Persson and D. Sturm, 2005, Political Competition and Economic Performance : Theory and Evidence from the United States, NBER Working Paper No Besley, T. and T. Persson, 2006, Economic Approaches to Political Institutions, forthcoming in Durlauf, S. and L. Blume (eds. ), New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition : McMillan. Blanchard, O. and A. Shleifer, 2001, Federalism with and without Political Centralization : China versus Russia, IMF Staff Papers 48, Buchanan, J. and R. Congleton, 1994, The Incumbency Dilemma and Rent Extraction by Legislators, Public Choice, 79 : Drazen, A., 2000, Political Economy in Macroeconomics : Princeton University Press. Economides, G., A. Philippopoulos and S. Price, 2003, How Elections Affect Fiscal Policy and Growth : Revising the Mechanism, European Journal of Political Economy, 19 : paper. Garcia2Vega, Maria and Jose A. Herce, 2005, Does Tenure in Office Affect Regional Growth? The Case of Spanish Regions, unpublished Huang, Yasheng, 2002, Managing Chinese Bureaucrats : An Institutional Economics Perspective, Political Studies, 50 : Jones, Benjamin F. and Benjamin A. Olken, 2005, Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II, Quarterly 102

13 Journal of Economics, 120 : Johnson, J. M. and W. M. Crain, 2004, Effects of Term Limits on Fiscal Performance : Evidence from Democratic Nations, Public Choice, 119 : La Porta, R., F. Lopez2De2Silanes, A. Shleifer and R. Vishny, 1999, The Quality of Government, Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 15 (1) : Levine, R., L. Norman and B. Thorsten, 2000, Financial Intermediation and Growth : Causality and Causes, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46 (1) : Levitt, Steven D., 1996, How Do Senators Vote? Disentangling the Role of Voter Preferences, Party Affiliation, and Senate Ideology, American Economic Review, 86 : Li, D., 1998, Changing Incentives of the Chinese Bureaucracy, American Economic Review, 88 (2) : Li, Hongbin and Li2An Zhou, 2005, Political Turnover and Economic Performance : Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China, Journal of Public Economics, 89 : Pande, Rohini, 2003, Can Mandated Political Representation Increase Policy Influence for Disadvantaged Minorities? Theory and Evidence from India, American Economic Review, 93 (4) : Qian, Y. and B. R. Weingast, 1997, Federalism as a Commitment to Preserving Market Incentives, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (4) : Shleifer, A., 1997, Government in Transition, European Economic Review, 41 : Term Limits and Rotation of Chinese Governors : Do They Matter to Economic Growth? Zhang Jun and Gao Yuan (China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University) Abstract : One of the motivation and control mechanisms established in Chinaπs political and bureaucratic hierarchy is an introduction of term limits and rotation system into higher level government officials. Using a panel data covering detailed information for all the provincial governors (including provincial party secretary, mayor for municipal cities, and chairman for autonomous regions) between 1978 and 2004, this paper finds a positive impact of both term limits and rotation of governors across provinces on local economic growth. It also finds that term limits and economic growth exhibit a weakly inversed U relationship. Though the rotation of governors matters to local economic growth, regional variation is observed, and the positive impact of rotated governors on local growth turned out to be more obvious in the eastern provinces than rest provinces. Key Words : Term Limits ; Rotation ; Economic Growth JEL Classification : H83, P26 ( : ) ( : ) 103

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